Reading Charles Krauthammer’s column this morning I was struck by the extraordinary difference between the Iraqi and Palestinian elections. The Iraqis seem to be having a real one, albeit under fire. (Does anyone know who will win? I don’t have a clue.) The Palestinians are having an anointing not dissimilar to Soviet elections of old with Mahmoud Abbas doing everything but grow a beard to inherit the mantle of Caudillo Arafat.
Krauthammer recites the litany of Abbas’ pro-extremist behaviors from being hoisted on the shoulders of Al Aqsa terrorists to calling Israel the “Zionist entity,” rhetoric the Caudillo himself had abjured of late, at least in public. Is this merely for the sake of a “campaign”? I wish I weren’t, but I’m becoming as skeptical as Krauthammer. He writes:
During the decade of Oslo, Arafat’s every statement of hatred, incitement and glorification of violence was similarly waved away. Then bombs began going off in cafes and buses, and the Middle East wise men realized he meant it all along. Now once again they are telling us to ignore the words. Abbas does not really mean it, they assure us. This is just electioneering. We know his true moderate heart. Believe us.
Why? On the basis of their track record? And even more important, you do not conduct foreign policy as a branch of psychiatry. Does Abbas mean the things he says about Israel now? I do not know, and no matter what you hear from the experts — the same people who assured you that Arafat wanted peace — neither do they.
But we do know this: In Abbas’s first moment of real leadership, his long-anticipated emergence from the shadow of Arafat, he chooses to literally hoist the flag of the terrorist al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
Can Abbas turn into a Sadat, who also emerged from the shadow of a charismatic leader, reversed policy and made peace with Israel? I’ll believe it when I see it. And hear it.
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10 Comments
1. scaramouoche:What’s the incentive for Abbas to turn into a Sadat? The result of all his peacemaking was a rendezvous with an assassin’s bullet. I doubt Abbas is eager to suffer a similar fate.
Jan 7, 2005 - 10:12 am 2. RogerA:Alas, I had hoped the death of Arafat would have presented some opportunity for a generational change. Apparently not to be: Abbas is, unfortunately, a generation removed from the Palistinian reality.
Jan 7, 2005 - 10:58 am 3. ambisinistral:Eh, get the barf bags ready. Over at No Pasaran Eric has linked to a French political cartoon that shows ballots zooming out of a PA ballot box, forming the shape of a dove, and flying off towards an Isreali soldier.
In spite of the fact that any real peace candidate would soon be riddled with a bajillion bullets, the PA election has been prejudged a rousing success and a tribute to democracy (no doubt us dumb Americans could learn a thing or two from it).
Meanwhile, regardless of the number voting, the Iraqi election will be spun a dismal failure because El Queida and Ba’athist thugs, er… I mean freedom fighters… didn’t didn’t vote.
What a world…
Jan 7, 2005 - 12:16 pm 4. Terrye:I think the Israelis need to build that wall and try to disnegage from these people.
The Palestinians are a lost cause. I am sad to say.
Jan 7, 2005 - 12:42 pm 5. Coisty:If Abbas is to make peace with Israel he needs to do it from a position of strength. Surely he can see that the second intifada has led the Palestinians nowhere. Pessimism with regard to Palestinian leaders is natural given what we’ve seen in the past but let’s give him a chance and see what happens once he solidifies his control – assuming he ever does. I’ll judge him by his actions then not his statements to the crowd now. Who knows, beneath all the bravado maybe the Palestinians do realise things have got to change. Mind you though, I wouldn’t bet the house on it.
Jan 7, 2005 - 1:52 pm 6. Jim Rockford:I’ve said it before, like Arafat before him, Abbas does NOT want to be Michael Collins. His people furthermore are not willing to accept compromises for a state.
The only thing that will bring clarity and focus is sadly, a massive military defeat of both the Palestinians and their Arab allies; with losses of territory in both the West Bank and Gaza.
Until that day comes, the Palestinians will continue as they have in the past, feeling that time and “one more terror campaign” will “break” the Israeli will and give them everything they want.
Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, etc are genuinely popular *because* the represent consensus. Sadat at least had incentives (supported by *some* Nationalists) to trade Peace for territory. Only that same dynamic will work the Palestinians, and the peace achieved will be a VERY cold one, as it is with Isreal.
Jan 7, 2005 - 2:40 pm 7. Tom Grey - Liberty Dad:Yes, it’s really too bad that the Palis will have an annointment, more than an election.
I suspect it’s still not possible to have a free press, so there’s little real criticism of PA leadership allowed or available in the Press.
Despite thinking that US press is too anti-Bush, I’m totally convinced that democracy needs a free press and free religion–a First Amendment.
I do believe Abbas has to fear the murdering terrorists, more than he fears the Israelis — but after he’s “elected”, the Israelis can step up counter-terrorism. Maybe.
I suggest the Israelis begin destroying Pali homes, one home per Israeli killed, for each terrorist attack. And slowly incrase this destruction, all the while blaming it on Abbas for failing to stop the terrorism; but also reducing the Pali presense in Jerusalem, or whereever it’s most inconvenient.
Israel must also keep killing terrorist leaders.
Jan 7, 2005 - 4:40 pm 8. David Thomson:I remain optimistic concerning the Palestinian situation. But so what? Israel should still continue pursuing (and killing) the terrorists and building the wall. If Iím right, thatís fine and dandy. Still, thereís no sense for the Israelis to drop their guard. Hope for the best—and prepare for the worst.
Jan 7, 2005 - 5:35 pm 9. pdq332:Mahmoud Abbas is a patsy. Hamas is not opposing him because: they are setting him up for failure. The only thing that stands in the way of Hamas claiming the leadership of the Palestinians is the Fatah movement of the late Arafat. There was nothing that Hamas could do to push Fatah aside when Arafat was leader: he was too popular and indeed Arafat had a cult of personality built around the mythology of his being the father of the “Palestinian State.”
But while Abbas is a member of Fatah, he is only a fourth-rate Arafat, and his election to the presidency will expose that and discredit Fatah. Abbas will make a misstep and will probably end up blown to bits or riddled with bullets. Abbas’ missteps could take the form of moving too quickly towards a peace with Israel, for example. Or it could be not moving at all. (Arafat was a master of appearing to be moving towards peace while in fact standing still.)
Abbas may actually end up like Sadat, but only a forth rate Sadat whose death would come before any peace could be implemented and whose death reflects nothing but petty factionalism.
For Illinois readers- something similar happened with teh Alan Keyes run for senate recently. By running an arch conservative doomed to failure, the moderate wing of the Illinois Republicans decimated support for the conservative wing. Hamas is not only “running” Abbas, but they will actively seek to undermine him and diminish popular support for Fatah. Then he will be assassinated.
Jan 8, 2005 - 7:36 am 10. richard mcenroe:Coisty ó Ah, the classic mindset of Europe… “He couldn’t really have meant what he just said…”, usually followed shortly thereafter by “He did WHAT to Poland?!”
What position of strength is Abbas going to negotiate from? The Palestinian Arabs cannot win a direct military confrontation with Israel. They have no natural resources, no industry, no economy to speak of. Their educational system, for want of a less appropriate term, produces generation after generation of angry, unemployable young man who’ve been inculcated with the desire to slaughter the neighbors whose forebearance is the Palestinians’ only hope of survival, a desire boldly stated in the very words of the Palestinian “constitution.” And cozening up to Hamas will only ensure the prolongation of everything wrong with his “country.” Things are unlikely to change for the Palestinian Arabs until they realize and admit that their only hope for a future lies with the people they are trying to butcher.
Jan 8, 2005 - 6:46 pm