What position of strength is Abbas going to negotiate from? The Palestinian Arabs cannot win a direct military confrontation with Israel. They have no natural resources, no industry, no economy to speak of. Their educational system, for want of a less appropriate term, produces generation after generation of angry, unemployable young man who’ve been inculcated with the desire to slaughter the neighbors whose forebearance is the Palestinians’ only hope of survival, a desire boldly stated in the very words of the Palestinian “constitution.” And cozening up to Hamas will only ensure the prolongation of everything wrong with his “country.” Things are unlikely to change for the Palestinian Arabs until they realize and admit that their only hope for a future lies with the people they are trying to butcher.

But while Abbas is a member of Fatah, he is only a fourth-rate Arafat, and his election to the presidency will expose that and discredit Fatah. Abbas will make a misstep and will probably end up blown to bits or riddled with bullets. Abbas’ missteps could take the form of moving too quickly towards a peace with Israel, for example. Or it could be not moving at all. (Arafat was a master of appearing to be moving towards peace while in fact standing still.)

Abbas may actually end up like Sadat, but only a forth rate Sadat whose death would come before any peace could be implemented and whose death reflects nothing but petty factionalism.

For Illinois readers- something similar happened with teh Alan Keyes run for senate recently. By running an arch conservative doomed to failure, the moderate wing of the Illinois Republicans decimated support for the conservative wing. Hamas is not only “running” Abbas, but they will actively seek to undermine him and diminish popular support for Fatah. Then he will be assassinated.

I suspect it’s still not possible to have a free press, so there’s little real criticism of PA leadership allowed or available in the Press.

Despite thinking that US press is too anti-Bush, I’m totally convinced that democracy needs a free press and free religion–a First Amendment.

I do believe Abbas has to fear the murdering terrorists, more than he fears the Israelis — but after he’s “elected”, the Israelis can step up counter-terrorism. Maybe.

I suggest the Israelis begin destroying Pali homes, one home per Israeli killed, for each terrorist attack. And slowly incrase this destruction, all the while blaming it on Abbas for failing to stop the terrorism; but also reducing the Pali presense in Jerusalem, or whereever it’s most inconvenient.

Israel must also keep killing terrorist leaders.

The only thing that will bring clarity and focus is sadly, a massive military defeat of both the Palestinians and their Arab allies; with losses of territory in both the West Bank and Gaza.

Until that day comes, the Palestinians will continue as they have in the past, feeling that time and “one more terror campaign” will “break” the Israeli will and give them everything they want.

Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, etc are genuinely popular *because* the represent consensus. Sadat at least had incentives (supported by *some* Nationalists) to trade Peace for territory. Only that same dynamic will work the Palestinians, and the peace achieved will be a VERY cold one, as it is with Isreal.

The Palestinians are a lost cause. I am sad to say.

In spite of the fact that any real peace candidate would soon be riddled with a bajillion bullets, the PA election has been prejudged a rousing success and a tribute to democracy (no doubt us dumb Americans could learn a thing or two from it).

Meanwhile, regardless of the number voting, the Iraqi election will be spun a dismal failure because El Queida and Ba’athist thugs, er… I mean freedom fighters… didn’t didn’t vote.

What a world…