58 Comments

1. Lola:

I have to say that I’m just so proud of her. She certainly is dignified, and her demeanor certainly reminds me of the other strong black women in my life.

Feb 9, 2005 - 8:43 am 2. RogerA:

Dr. Rice is certainly burnishing her credentials which were impressive to start with. I rather expected her to be a candidate in the future. While I discount much of what Morris says, he does have a knack for politics. One of the scenarios I have seen floated (where escapes me) is that Cheney retires, Rice is appointed VP and 2008 rolls around.

And for a “Rovian perspective:” Putting Rice on the ticket would also be a test of the african-american voting bloc as well.

Whatever the political calculus, Dr. Rice is one immensely qualified person.

Feb 9, 2005 - 8:48 am 3. Todd Pearson:

I can’t get the link to work, but idle speculation is always fun. Nevertheless, I find the idea that she could be a candidate in 2008 to be somewhat far-fetched.

Potential candidates are already lining up commitments from people on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire, and they are already making visits to those states. And although a person can run for President while holding another elected office, I don’t recall any precedent for a person running for President while at the same time serving as a cabinet secretary. If you assume that no campaign could be started (even informally) while she is Secretary of State, and if you assume that she serves as Secretary of State for at least 2 1/2 years, as a practical matter an effective run in 2008 would be out of the question. Instead, I expect that she will remain as Secretary of State throughout Bush’s second term and if she decides to run for President, it won’t be until 2012.

Feb 9, 2005 - 8:54 am 4. Roger:

You’re giving the CW there, Todd, and you may be right. But political communications are changing at an amazingly rapid clip. Not to be too self-serving, by 2006-7 or so, blogs may be so powerful the oldmethods will be extinct. Then who knows?

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:05 am 5. Knucklehead:

Todd,

Idle speculation is even more fun than active speculation. The points you make are well founded and can’t be discounted. It just may be, however, that Dr. Rice is such a ground-breaking potential candidate that many or most of the “standard rules” may not apply.

Hers will be a fascinating career to observe. If the Dems thought Boxer had any hope of “bringing her down a peg or two” they are in even worse shape than I imagined. As far as I can tell they didn’t lay a glove on her and wound up with one eye swelled shut and few stitches of their own. It will be equally interesting to watch how the Dems go about trying to wound her over the next two years or so – do they really want to go nuclear against the Secretary of State, especially if she continues to wow and dazzle the “international community”? Has the opposition party done such a thing since the early days of the republic?

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:22 am 6. JayC:

Guys,

I like Dr. Rice as much as the next person, but let’s be reasonable.

1) She has never run for an elected office. As Wesley Clark (and US Grant (and Zachary Taylor)) proved, President of the US is not an entry-level position. Yes, I know about Eisenhower, but do we want to count on her being an Eisenhower?

2) This is Dick Morris. While he’s a great idea guy, his political predictions have not been terribly accurate in the past.

3) This is Dick Morris. He hates Hillary.

Maybe after 8 years as VP. But I don’t know about 2008.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:23 am 7. Dishman:

“I’ve met God, and she is black.”

On the matter of endorsements, it seems to me that she’s already got several lined up, namely Bush, Cheney and Powell.

Bush’s respect for and trust in her are public. Cheney’s strong reiteration that he will not run for President seems to tip his hand. Powell’s relationship with her has been described as paternal, and while he has considered running, he does not want to go through it.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:26 am 8. Bruce W.:

More realistic (and exciting) is the prospect of Ms. Rice walking in Cheney’s footsteps, rather than replacing him…namely VP nominee for 2008.

It’s attractive on several levels, the more I think about it.

She can wait on the decision until rather late in the game, freeing her to focus on her current post (success at which would be her best publicity and a priceless leg up on the competition). And she could be another of the new mold of VPs…the kind that matter.

Roger A: While I’d prefer that the first African American VP be elected to the office by the citizenry rather than by Congress, I’ll take your rumored method also. Whatever it takes to break antiquated barriers.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:27 am 9. RogerA:

I confess: too lazy to google; but, does anyone know Dr. Rice’s positions on domestic/social issues? I would love to believe she is a social liberal but national security hawk.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:39 am 10. Knucklehead:

We have to go back to Kennedy to find a POTUS who wasn’t either a governor or a VP. In the case of VPs (Bush I, Ford, Nixon) they had held elected federal office prior. Eisenhower was the most recent “didn’t hold elected office” and before him Hoover. We have grown partial to former governors and VPs as our presidents, haven’t we. But it wasn’t always thus and there is no discernable reason it will continue on that way indefinitely. I prefer executive experience in candidates for POTUS but outside of political junkies I rarely hear anyone else mention that. If she successfully reformed the State Dept. I’d consider accepting that as sufficient evidence of executive ability. Hell, if she even survives the career asassination attempts she’s in for I’d give her extra credit.

But best of all would be watching the Barking Moonbats heads explode. They’d eat their young and then themselves trying to figure out how to run against her.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:46 am 11. Skookumchuk:

RogerA:

Don’t know her position on many domestic issues, but she describes herself as a Second Amendment absolutist. It is an interesting take, based on her experiences growing up in segregated Birmingham.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:47 am 12. Pat Curley:

I like her, but not her chances unless she gets parachuted into the vice-presidency and/or President Bush gives her an endorsement. As some of the posts above indicate, we know her positions on foreign policy, but we have no idea of where she stands on social/domestic issues, and as a result, I think people are projecting their own beliefs on those matters to her.

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:59 am 13. Knucklehead:

Darned good question, RogerA. She has no easily detectable domestic policy profile. Her bio is very impressive but it is all international all the time. A quick scan of Americans for Rice doesn’t shed much light. Here’s the Rice2008 site (the Draft Condi folks).

Purely a guess on my part but I suspect she’s moderately conservative wrt domestic issues.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:03 am 14. Dishman:

The Morris article does interesting things to her negotiating position. It’s one thing to talk to our SoS thinking that she’ll be gone in a few years. It’s quite another if there’s a strong possibility she will be there for 12 or 20 years.

Pat, it appears she’s at least got an inside track on Bush’s endorsement.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:23 am 15. BladeDoc:

I’ve already gotten into this fight (about how to run against Dr. Rice). The meme being floated already is that “she’s not really black.” I don’t actually know how that’ll play with the public, but they’re trying it out.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:36 am 16. jedrury:

America gave the world its first female SOS, its first Afro American SOS and now its first Afro American woman as SOS. Condi was featured on the front page of the IBD leaning over to Herr Schroeder; what must that silly Old European man been thinking? What must that sillier Froggy man been thinking yesterday?

An African American woman who does not do rap or blues but plays Faure on the piano with Yo Yo Ma.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:45 am 17. jedrury:

Turning to Hillary, did you notice that the Clinton stench keeps coming, according to

the Times yesterday. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/09/nyregion/09clintons.html

Could this be more Karl Rove chicanery?

Nah!!!!!

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:55 am 18. heather:

Condis’ speech to some French intellectual group was wonderful, very uplifting. I suddenly started to think that a presidential try just might be possible for her. The next thought is, imagine a battle of the Clinton machine and the Bush machine in 2008!

On the other hand, Condi wants to be the head administrator of the NFL, and I don’t think she is joking, either.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:57 am 19. Dishman:

I don’t think “She’s not really black” is a wise meme to use. I’d look for Bill Cosby for the counter. Note that he’s also being slimed.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:59 am 20. JayC:

Okay, so I don’t think she’s running.

But,

I can’t think of any campaign against Dr. Rice more calculated to fail than “she’s not really black”. If they try it, that’s going to dramatically increase her appeal. If the Demos are stupid enough to try it, yeah, then she could win.

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:17 am 21. Barry Dauphin:

As long as we’re thinking about political hurdles to Condi’s ascendency to the presidency, do people think the fact that she is single would hurt her chances?

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:18 am 22. kynna:

Rice has never held elected office, but she has been active in government for so long, it’s almost easy to forget that. She has been so close to the president she has more experience running the country at this point than Hillary Clinton could run on for her senate campaign.

Besides that she was the provost of Stanford.

The presidency would not be entry-level for Condi.

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:22 am 23. Sandy P:

2 points for Condi — she likes to travel. Colin didn’t and that was a complaint from our “historical friends and allies.”

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:23 am 24. blogaddict:

Call me superficial if you like, but something about the figure Condi cuts as an elegant and attractive woman, and an incredibly intelligent and articulate Afro-American, confronting the doddering old heads of Europe, makes me smile and smile and smile with pleasure, glee, and satifaction. I think they don’t know what hit them.

I was chatting with one of my many ultra-liberal friends the other day, and he was saying how he hopes Hillary runs in 2008 and wins, since “It’s time for a female president.” I replied that it would be nice to have a competent president who happens to be female (although it’s not an important criterion to me), and that there are candidates on both sides. He looked stumped, and asked me who I could possibly mean? When I answered Condoleeza Rice, he made a face, as though the idea were beneath contempt (and, clearly, he’d never heard of it before). I am continually amazed at how liberals can so consdescendingly bash a women they should be predisposed to like, given she’s female and Afro-American.

I’d like to know her position on domestic issues, too. And I’d certainly consider voting for her, particularly if her efforts here bear fruit. Why shouldn’t she be the next Eisenhower?

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:46 am 25. Hogarth:

As long as we’re thinking about political hurdles to Condi’s ascendency to the presidency, do people think the fact that she is single would hurt her chances?

I, for one, would be willing to help her out with that!

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:46 am 26. charlotte:

… plays Faure on the piano with Yo Yo Ma

jedrury, I think you nailed it. Dr. Rice and her critics are the Yo Yo Ma and Yo’ Mama divide of America. She has brains, grace, and strength, grew up in the segregated South, and now is one of the most powerful women in the world. Incredibly, her detractors fixate on whether she has sufficient black cred. What, does Condi need to become Ebony Empress of the Universe before they begrudgingly give her her dues?

Ah, but Halle Berry is black, for sure…

Rice has a certain coiffed glamour and poise about her that reminds me of Jackie Kennedy’s appeal in the 60s. That she is the head diplomat and policy maker for our country, instead of simply being diplomatic as a politician’s wife, makes her all the more 21st century and intriguing.

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:53 am 27. utron:

I’d love to see a Condi candidacy in ‘08, and I think some of the posters here overstate her vulnerabilities.

One of the biggest problems for presidential candidates with no previous electoral experience is an inability to stay on message, or to understand how unscripted comments can be spun by the MSM. (Look at Perot and Wesley Clark for recent exemples of this.) Dr. Rice’s experience with NSC and State gives her, if anything, more rigorous training on this point than most presidential wannabes get.

–I doubt we’re going to hear anything about her domestic policy positions until (and unless) she expresses some interest in the presidency, and she’d be a fool to do that before 2007.

–A late declaration–if she’s interested–probably won’t do her any harm. The Republican field is more wide open than it’s been in a long, long time, and none of the prospects have the kinds of connections that will allow them to pull away from the herd the way George W. did in 1999.

And whatever else Dean did, he showed that the internet lets an outsider candidate make a convincing end run around the party organization.

I think Condi has a very good shot at the presidency, if she wants it. And back in November 1991, I made a $50.00 bet with my cousin that Clinton would win the Democratic nomination and then the presidency. I’m often right, even when I wish I weren’t.

Feb 9, 2005 - 11:59 am 28. Mark Poling:

As one of Bush’s most trusted advisors, Rice has spent more time in the Oval Office than Dick Cheney, I would think. She’s managed the NSA, and now she’s going to be tussling with State.

She’s as well prepared to be President as anyone alive. (Other than those who’ve actually been President, but I don’t think George Sr. is planning a comeback.)

The only thing that would make the oreo line of attack a worse idea would be if Sen. Robert Byrd (D.-WV, KKK) leads the charge.

Her marital status would be a problem. Certain people who get incensed over the Federal Marriage Amendment will have no problem charging Rice with crypto-lesbianism. (As a matter of fact, I’ll buy Roger a bottle of Old Crow if some group doesn’t try to “out” Condi in the next six months.) Personally I don’t give a rat’s rear end one way or the other, but that line of attack could hurt her.

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:11 pm 29. Dishman:

Hogarth – agreed.

She’s a geek’s goddess.

It might play against her for the nomination, but not in November. “She’s not married” would be an even more toxic meme than “She’s not really black”.

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:13 pm 30. Mark Poling:

Pardon, I meant NSC and State.

On the other hand, if it turned out Condi was a spy back in the 80s, that would just make everything so much better….

(And damn, she was a Sovietologist….)

(Glee. Sheer glee.)

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:16 pm 31. Lola:

It sure will be interesting to see what happens when she makes her first visit to Russia. Being as she speaks fluent Russian . . .

Anyone know if this country will be on the agenda sometime in the next 6 months?

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:24 pm 32. jedrury:

Charlotte:

Americans today look beyond color to competency.

I hope.

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:25 pm 33. Morgan:

Lola:

Interesting indeed.

http://pravda.us/mailbox/22/101/399/14846_Condoleeza.html

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:45 pm 34. Lola:

Gee . . . this Timothy guy really has it in for her, doesn’t he?

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:51 pm 35. charlotte:

Charlotte: Americans today look beyond color to competency. I hope.

Um, thanks, jedrury. Guess I didn’t make it clear that I was speaking of her detractors, many of whom make her race an issue, as in she has sold out “her people” by embracing “white” Republican policy. I would certainly hope that most Americans are weary of that kind of race-baiting; but we shouldn’t deny she has had to endure that sick kind of condemnation by the Ted Ralls and Harry Belafontes of the far Left.

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:51 pm 36. Skookumchuk:

heather:

On the other hand, Condi wants to be the head administrator of the NFL, and I don’t think she is joking, either.

What a great summation of the differences between (some) Republican and (most) Democratic politicians. For most of the Democrats, all of life is politics. For some Republicans at least, there is life – maybe most of life – outside of politics. For Arnold, Rummy and Dick Cheney, certainly. And maybe Condi, too. Good for her.

Imagine Hillary wanting the top job in the NFL . . .

Feb 9, 2005 - 12:55 pm 37. Knucklehead:

“The article is by Dick Morris. I wonder who he is courting here – Condi or Hillary – to hire him as campaign adviser.”

I think Hillary would rather suck toes than hire Dick Morris as a campaign adviser. Condi don’t need ‘im.

Feb 9, 2005 - 1:08 pm 38. Mark Poling:

Morgan, thanks for the link. I nearly laughed out loud. If you can judge a person by the character of her enemies, Condi is golden.

Feb 9, 2005 - 1:20 pm 39. PeterArgus:

What an interesting pair Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice make. Both straight-talking sincere people. I would think they get along famously. What is also interesting is that Ms. Rice would appear to be an intellectual elitist fantasy, but for her “appalling” politics. Her intellect is in stark contrast to that of the presumed intellectual lightweight, Mr. Bush. And yet here they are…

Some people like to form social groupings based on academic achievement and the like: what books you’ve read, your degrees, the status of your friends. It is a pleasure to see there are people capable of getting beyond that and taking the true measure of each other’s souls.

Feb 9, 2005 - 1:37 pm 40. neo-neocon:

Lola, excellent point about the Russian. Would Rice be the first SOS to be fluent in Russian? Interpreters had better be on their toes and not make any mistakes when she visits there, or she’ll call them out. Or maybe she’ll dispense with them entirely.

Feb 9, 2005 - 2:22 pm 41. Terrye:

I respect Condi Rice but I think her sex will make it more difficult for her to ever win the WH than her skin color.

And I am a woman.

Feb 9, 2005 - 2:25 pm 42. RogerA:

as long as we are in the realm of idle speculation, I am really curious about how black americans would see a Dr. Rice run for elected office–I dont mean the white racists of the democratic party–I mean the black community (not the black racists like sharpton and jackson). any ideas from the commentariat here?

Feb 9, 2005 - 2:35 pm 43. Juliette:

Roger A: Anecdotally speaking, many of my relatives were outraged at the Boxer attack against Dr. Rice. I was very shocked, since only I and my immediate family are Republicans and since the Democrat kin regularly exhibit symptoms of BDS.

Feb 9, 2005 - 3:33 pm 44. Skookumchuk:

RogerA:

Limited experience, but – the black people I know all dislike her. Perhaps this is explained by the hold that traditional Democratic politics has over black America. They see Colin Powell as a hero in part because of his presumed resistance to the war in Iraq and long military career. Condi Rice is seen as unqualified to be SOS, or merely as a cipher. I don’t think that assessment will change, no matter what she ever does. Too bad. Maybe others here will have differing perspectives on this.

Oh well, there is also the rest of the country . . .

Feb 9, 2005 - 3:41 pm 45. RogerA:

Juliette and Skook: thanks for your observations. I live in a white part of the country with no black population at all so I honestly dont know. I suspect much of black feelings are generationally based. Although as a serving army officer with Gen Powell as the CJCS, I have frankly been disappointed in his performance as Sec State. He is first and foremost a politician, and an adept one in all fairness. Were it not because his wife has been adamant about his moving into the political arena I think he would have grown the fire in his belly. I respect him for considering his wife’s concerns.

That said, I see Dr. Rice as a new exemplar of Black Americans–perhaps I am wrong, but I hope not. And I am filled with white “angst” about projecting my views on the black community. So thanks for your views. I would certainly support the candidacy of Dr. Rice for any elected position. Not because she is black, not because she is a woman, but because she is competent.

Feb 9, 2005 - 4:13 pm 46. RogerA:

apologies for sequential posts, but Juliette: Great blog! I will certainly book mark it!

Feb 9, 2005 - 4:23 pm 47. Skookumchuk:

RogerA:

Hopefully it may be generational. I don’t know many young black people.

A beautiful thing about Condi (besides the Chopin etudes and a billion other things) is how effortlessly she explodes all those ancient, cramped intellectual notions about ethnicity. When I listen to leftists talk about how a class or an ethnic group should behave, they remind me of 19th Century phrenologists in black frock coats measuring peoples heads with calipers. Maybe that will change someday, too.

Feb 9, 2005 - 4:33 pm 48. Knucklehead:

Geeze, all that and not only does she go to enormous trouble to watch football, but she apparently understands what she’s looking at!

Q: How long does it take Dr. Rice to pour a beer?

A: No time at all. It’s already poured by when Hogarth brings it to her.

Feb 9, 2005 - 5:05 pm 49. Pat Curley:

“Her marital status would be a problem. Certain people who get incensed over the Federal Marriage Amendment will have no problem charging Rice with crypto-lesbianism. (As a matter of fact, I’ll buy Roger a bottle of Old Crow if some group doesn’t try to “out” Condi in the next six months.)”

Actually the line they seem to be trying is that she’s involved in some sort of love triangle with the President and Mrs Bush. No, I am not kidding; Maureen Dowd even slipped a reference into one of her recent columns.

Feb 9, 2005 - 8:15 pm 50. richard mcenroe:

Mark Poling ó If Tom Clancy was a Democrat, he would have invented Condoleeza Rice…

Feb 9, 2005 - 9:19 pm 51. Macker:

What concerns me is how fast people are lining up the field for 08 on the Republican side. I myself would rather wait a couple of years and see how certain situations work themselves out. With Dr. Rice at State, I feel like that will no longer be a problem.

Let her do her job and represent US.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:16 pm 52. thibaud:

Hold the kool-aid, folks. In contemporary US presidential primaries, candidates who have not been governor of a racially and politically diverse state are at a very significant disadvantage. 4 out of the last 5 presidents were governors.

The reason for this is not so much that being governor prepares one to be president as that it gives one a huge advantage in the bloodsport that is the nominating and electoral process. Governors are past masters at neutralizing single-interest groups; senators in their cozy club are generally spared this indignity. Governors are forced to justify their stands on god gays guns; balance budgets; and fight like hell to turn federalism to their advantage. Senators are encouraged to split differences and fudge or ignore such issues whenever possible.

Unless and until Condi enters and succeeds in the crucible of gubernatorial politics, she’ll likely commit the same fatal screw-ups as Kerry Gore Bradley McCain Dole Bush Sr. Hart and Mondale. Ditto, btw, for Hillary.

Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen is the Dems’ likely candidate in 2008. The Republicans would be wise to go with Giuliani.

Feb 9, 2005 - 10:51 pm 53. Lola:

Meanwhile, check out this article that appeared today in USA Today . . .

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2005-02-09-rice-tune_x.htm

Feb 10, 2005 - 5:58 am 54. thibaud:

Glenn Reynolds agrees with Bredesen as the Dems’ best hope: http://online.wsj.com/article_email/0,,SB110799915995350845-IRjfoNolaB4n5ypZH6HcaWJm4,00.html

One of the things that’s struck me most is how well Gov. Bredesen does on conservative talk radio. He answers questions rather than ducking them or retreating into slogans and sound bites, and as a result the hosts (and listeners) respect him even when they disagree…. If you can imagine a Democratic presidential nominee who will hold his own on Rush Limbaugh or Hugh Hewitt, you’re imagining a Democrat who could win the general election.

Feb 10, 2005 - 6:33 am 55. richard mcenroe:

Thibaud ó How many years had Reagan been out of the governorship when he won the Presidency ( and CA Democrats still use him as an excuse for not fixing the state’s problems)? And the rest of your pool includes Carter and Clinton. Plus, the governship of Texas is in many ways a figurehead position. The lieutenant governorship is a much more powerful office in many ways. So the governorship as guide thing seems questionable to me…

Feb 10, 2005 - 7:58 am 56. richard mcenroe:

Todd makes one interesting point. No one misses a Senator if he blows off the job (especially in Massachusetts) but a Secretary of State has to work for a living.

BTW ó She’s a damned impressive woman, but “America’s Black Queen?” Can I assume the hyperbole filter has been disabled?

Feb 10, 2005 - 8:01 am 57. thibaud:

Richard M,

It may be the case that governorship is less a positive factor than senate tenure a negative one. The senate today is well insulated from many of the most contentious political issues that have the greatest impact on not just the voters but also the hardcore activists who dominate the nominating process in each party.

By contrast, take a look at the four key issues that Arnold is addressing this year (actually, he’s staking everything on them):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12489-2005Feb9.html?nav=hcmodule

1) merit pay for public schoolteachers;

2) pension reform;

3) budget reform;

4) electoral redistricting reform.

Each of those issues pits el gubernator against extremely powerful, well-organized opponents– both in and out of government– who can make or break him politically. Without question, to succeed on these fronts requires both hardball and soft political skills greater than anything required of senators whose greatest tests are whether to support Sen. X by posturing on issue Y so as to grab X’s support for pork on issue Z. COmpare what Arnold is achieving, or what Bredesen has achieved already, with the farce that was the Senate’s energy bill, or its near-complete failures to rein in medicare spending or farm subsidies.

As a training ground, governorships compare to the senate as NATO experience compares to experience in the UN. The senate has become a playground of posturing by millionaires who are increasingly out of touch with core issues facing the nation.

Feb 10, 2005 - 8:45 am 58. AlanC:

Okay folk,

Now that, according to the USA Today article,

some Euros are describing Condi as

“… newspapers quoted French students who attended and described her as “brilliant,” “charismatic,” “savvy” and “cultivated.”

We’ll stop hearing about “ignorant, unsophisticated, redneck, American cowboys” from the Euro elites and media?

Nope, me neither.

Feb 10, 2005 - 12:14 pm

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