26 Comments

1. Katherine:

Roger,

ìI think what Europe thinks of us is far less important than Asiaî

You are not alone. Check out this article on the Scotsman.com:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005

An excerpt:

ìTHE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

(Ö)

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: “The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role.”

It adds that the EUís economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there – and in France and Italy to lesser extents – remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its “slow-growth pattern”.î

They also predict end of NATO, and point out the growing importance of China and India.

I know that this is a CIA report ñ (some dose of skepticism is required), but my personal observations led me to similar conclusion i.e. I have been predicting breakout of EU for years. As to European smugness ñ it seems thatís the only product that they have in overabundance over there.

Feb 19, 2005 - 7:47 pm 2. chuck:

Bush is going to Europe and everyone has to opine on European and American relations. It’s right up there with preparing obituaries of the famous. Anyhoo, Steyn has a slightly different take (registration may be required).

Feb 19, 2005 - 7:47 pm 3. Terrye:

Perhaps it is finally dawning on the Europeans that the Iraqi people will have a future and that with every suicide bomb the Iraqis will remember whose side the French were on.

Feb 19, 2005 - 7:49 pm 4. chuck:

OT,

And here is a dinosaur cartoon to add to the collection.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:03 pm 5. Barry Dauphin:

“The election does not repair the broken justification for the war [sic]; it does not redeem the errors of postwar planning and execution;”

Of course if this also represents European attitudes and not just Clive’s, perhaps it’s a bit early to write an obituary on Euro sumugness. It remains amusing (although consternating at times) to hear the droning that the war was somehow about one thing (i.e., WMD) and everything else has been a whim. The Euros want to say that if the Iraqis wanted democracy, they should have protested like people do in the streets of Paris. In many respects the ongoing terrorism of the Baathist dead enders serves as further proof that the Iraqis were not in a position to have a democratic movement spring up from within no matter how much they wanted it. The regime had such a vice grip on the population. The Euros are too frightened to send in trained troops but the Iraqi civilians were supposed to just rise up. I guess the Euros thought that “Operation Iraqi Freedom” was just an advertising slogan.

Year by year too much of Old Europe reveals a lack of sophistication. The Euro analyses of world events and politics is becoming as pathetic as their plans for dealing with their impending pension crises. McCain was right about France acting like the aged Hollywood actress trying to get by on looks but not having the face for it anymore. Europe isn’t wiser than America. They are more like the old folks who act like big babies.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:06 pm 6. David Thomson:

ìSimplifying, but not outrageously, America’s instinct is to recognize and confront threats to its security; Europe’s is to deny these threats for as long as possible and then appease.î

Simplifying, but not outrageously? Nonsense, the author is merely being bluntly honest. He need not feel timid. This is exactly the mindset of the Old Europeans. Itís too late for them. The ancestors of many of us have royally screwed up. They arenít even bringing enough children into the world to replace themselves. We should not per se abandon them. Instead, they must be treated like spoiled teenagers who must either shape up, or ship out. The choice is theirís. Itís no longer our problem.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:07 pm 7. David Thomson:

ìItís too late for them.î

This is incorrect. It should read ìIt may be too late for them.î They, however, must not procrastinate. Time is short and their options fewer. We should wish them the best. Still, it is their problem and not ours.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:18 pm 8. Huan:

Western Europe is passing, and it is unlikely that Eastern Europe can save it.

While US-China remains competitive, US-India relationship is humming along nicely.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:29 pm 9. ed:

Hmmm.

Curiously enough Europe could solve this problem rather easily by selectively importing immigrants from nations other than those in the Arab/muslim world. I can easily imagine hundreds of thousands of Chinese, Central and South Americans, South East Asians and non-muslim Africans would be eager to legally immigrate to Europe.

But doing so would create a mini-America in Europe and would require revising the current approach to immigration. Which frankly is more akin to “Don’t ask, don’t tell” than anything else.

Feb 19, 2005 - 8:56 pm 10. Foobarista:

The problem with Europe and immigration is that it strikes at the core of the welfare state. For Europe to allow successful immigration, it has to make it easy to start small, lightly regulated businesses that can compete and hire cheap workers. 8 weeks of vacation, tons of overbearing regulations, and enormous “social” expenses won’t cut it if you’re trying to run a low-end Chinese restaurant or VIetnamese pho place of the sort that are all over parts of the US, and this is where immigrants will need to start. The US immigrant experience may be tough, but it is better than permanent welfare-ghettos of the European variety.

Feb 19, 2005 - 9:53 pm 11. David Thomson:

ìFor Europe to allow successful immigration, it has to make it easy to start small, lightly regulated businesses that can compete and hire cheap workers.î

Excellent point. It almost always boils down to the damage caused by Old Europe’s infatuation with its welfare state policies. This is also the same reason why these folks shy away from building up their military. The cost would take money away from their lavish benefits and long vacations.

Feb 19, 2005 - 10:09 pm 12. WichitaBoy:

It will be interesting to see how long the EU lasts. Can the countries of Europe secede? What happens at crunch time when there is an irreconcilable conflict between Brussels and the individual country?

Feb 19, 2005 - 11:31 pm 13. ed:

Hmmm.

“Can the countries of Europe secede? What happens at crunch time when there is an irreconcilable conflict between Brussels and the individual country?”

Honestly I don’t think there is a seccession article in the EU Constitution. Although I’m not sure. I tried reading it but couldn’t get past the first few pages, out of some 250. I do have a theory, but it’s been called “nutcase”, perhaps for a reason.

My thinking is that all European militaries are deeply associated with their respective nations. It would be a difficult thing to call upon the Italian Army to put down a revolt in Italy. Even trying the Chinese model, of importing troops from other places, has limited utility because the various European militaries are so relatively weak.

However the addition of Turkey changes pretty much everything. Turkey has a large population, a long military tradition and a military with a tradition of overthrowing and suppressing soverign governments. That actually is the Turkish military’s primary role, beyond defending Turkish terroritory. In Turkey if the current government steps outside the allowed boundries, the military stages a coup and basically resets the country’s political landscape for a new election.

So if you add in Turkey, a nation with no real position connection to any specific European nation, then you’ve got a ready-made pool of soldiers. Add the fact that Turkish infantry is very good and tough, very much so compared to most European militaries, and battle hardened from fighting PUKK Kurdish separatists.

Add in the fact that serving in the military isn’t all that popular in Europe while it’s very respectable in Turkey. You’ve got a fairly strange situation where the standing EU Army might be mostly Turkish while regional militias are comprised of the remains of national armies.

In such a situation then Brussels would be able to put down any seccessionist talk.

Feb 20, 2005 - 12:03 am 14. PeterUK:

The EU is already collapsing with nations in breach of the Growth and Stability Pact and there is nothing that Brussels can do about it.

There is no real desire by the people of Europe for what is a top down scam by the international elites that dwarfs Oil For Food.

The auditors have refused to sign the accounts for the seventh year running,more and more functionaries are being awarded the equivalent to diplomatic immunity.The UN a mere bagatelle compared to the EU,there is enough money being trousered in salaries,perks expenses and downright chicanery to make a Third World dictator blush.

The welfarism cannot be stopped,not because the people are addicted to it,but because there are too many public sector jobs reliant on government largesse.The socialist governments in Europe are heavily dependent on the public sector unions and the votes of all the employees of this giant Ponzi job creation scheme.If public sector employees play their cards right,they can be retired on health grounds at fifty,with added years, a lump sum and an index linked pension.They are then free to go back to work.

Immigration has been heavily weighted in favour of immigrants from the Indian sub continent and Africa,excepting,in the case of the UK, those of British descent.

There is a conundrum here,many EU countries have high unemployment,Germany for example,why the need for more workers?

As for Turkish troops putting down rebellion,Brussels would talk tough until the first separatist bomb tore through one of their brasseries.Imagine when ETA realises that Brussels and not Madrid is the seat of power,or al Qaeda comes to the conclusion that if they grab them by the sprouts,their hearts and minds will follow.

Feb 20, 2005 - 6:04 am 15. Huan:

there is a secession clause for the EU constitution. What is more interesting is that once a country secede, it can reapply for membership, thereby getting a different deal (for better or for worse i guess) for membership.

“Any member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements”

– Article I-60, European Constitutional Treaty.

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110867803172258187,00.html?mod=opinion%5Fmain%5Feurope%5Fasia

Feb 20, 2005 - 6:31 am 16. Brian:

May I recommmend to you all that you go and read PeterUK’s post at least twice?

That is all.

Feb 20, 2005 - 7:36 am 17. richard mcenroe:

Europe is not losing its smugness; it’s worried about losing a customer.

They never believed Saddam would be deposed.

They never believed the US would hold fast in Iraq.

They never believed the Iraqis would turn out to vote.

They sure as hell do believe the Iraqis will remember whose pockets they lined…

Feb 20, 2005 - 8:00 am 18. Knucklehead:

Some of the commenters here have mentioned the economic reasons why the Euros have not been fully able to integrate and assimilate immigrants to the degree that “Anglosphere” nations have managed – in particular the US, Australia, Canada and England. What has not been touched upon is the still strong strains of racial and ethnic bigotry alive and well within much of Europe. On the whole, Euros have never really confronted their bigotries and accepted the ugly and sometimes destructive – and always society quaking – issues of bigotry. They have covered their bigotries with declarations of sophisticated moral superiority and welfare. Unfortunately the underlying, unconfronted bigotry is like methane building up in a landfill. It sits there generating, collecting, stinking and sometimes catching fire.

Feb 20, 2005 - 8:07 am 19. photoncourier.blogspot.com:

There’s considerable potential in the nations of Eastern Europe. To the degree that these countries become entangled with the EU and its bureaucracy, this potential could be strangled at birth. Is there anything we can do to help prevent this?

Feb 20, 2005 - 8:12 am 20. Knucklehead:

I’d like to make a correction to my above post.

“Euros have not been fully able to integrate and assimilate…”

I should have written “… not been better able to integrate…”

The US and the other nations I mentioned have not been fully able to integrate and assimilate immigrant populations. We have, however, more deeply and openly confronted a broader range of the issues involved despite imperfect resolutions of those issues.

Euros seem to be unwilling (perhaps it is fear) to confront these issues and deal with them. The nearly universal Euro reaction to uncomfortable confrontation seems to be to layer more bureaucracy upon society and to accept endemic corruption as just another form of wealth redistribution.

Feb 20, 2005 - 8:17 am 21. ed:

Hmmm.

1. So there is a seccession clause? Interesting. But the requirement that it be activated by the member nation’s constitution seems like a loophole. What if the member nation’s constitution either doesn’t have a mechanism to effect seccession or the EU Constitution supplants all existing constitutions in member nations?

What’s really amusing is the idea that a centrally located EU member nation might withdraw from the EU and then implement more business friendly policies. That would suck out a great deal of GDP growth out of the EU itself.

2. Europe’s problem is that it has been a mostly homogeneous population. It’s easy to have good race relations when there’s only one race.

3. “As for Turkish troops putting down rebellion,Brussels would talk tough until the first separatist bomb tore through one of their brasseries.Imagine when ETA realises that Brussels and not Madrid is the seat of power,or al Qaeda comes to the conclusion that if they grab them by the sprouts,their hearts and minds will follow.”

Hmmm. Well I can’t say that I necessarily disagree. Except I will point out that the Turkish Army has a great deal of experience in fighting terrorists. Additionally it does not necessarily follow that AQ would object to Turkish soldiers being the majority in a EU Army. It would probably speed up the Islamicization.

Whether or not the bureaucrats in Brussels would have either the nerve or backbone to do anything, that really depends.

Feb 20, 2005 - 11:55 am 22. Katherine:

Photoncourier,

ìThere’s considerable potential in the nations of Eastern Europe. To the degree that these countries become entangled with the EU and its bureaucracy, this potential could be strangled at birth. Is there anything we can do to help prevent this?î

They walked into this with the eyes wide opened. In fact, they begged to be admitted.

Donít kid yourselves: socialist tradition is firmly implanted in Eastern Europe (degree probably depends on a country, but it is there). The thing they did not like was socialism imposed by the Soviets with the loss of sovereignty. In fact, they always dreamed to be ìjust like Swedenî. Nobody there wants truly free markets ñ the myth of ìinhuman American-style capitalismî is live and well there, and all the horror stories of people dying on the streets in America for the lack of health insurance are taken as a gospel. Eastern Europeans will have to learn the hard way that swapping master in Moscow for master in Belgium was not such a good idea, even if the master in Belgium does not have a standing army. They may eventually figure it out as they a bit more distrustful of foreign powers, but only after they get hurt – again.

And what PeterUK writes about public sector in the Western Europe is equally applicable to Eastern Europe.

Feb 20, 2005 - 12:00 pm 23. richard mcenroe:

Ed ó That’s a bit of an oversimplification. There’s nothing particularly homogenous between Britons, Frenchman, Italians and Germans, let alone Spaniards and Czechs or Hungarians and Danes. One of the things the EUrocrats have had to do is relentlessly drill ethnic and national awareness out of their subjects, to produce one nice uniform dole line. Of course, it leaves them essentially helpless in the face of an ethnic group that refuses to go along, like Islam.

Feb 20, 2005 - 1:20 pm 24. PeterUK:

Ed,

I wasn’t connecting the use of Turkish soldiers to put down any insurection with the obvious reality that Brussels is now the real seat of power and it won’t take long before a terrorist group makes that observation.The two are not necessarily congruent.I would also add tha al Qaeda is a terrorist group not the Wehrmact or the Red Army,they cannot take territory.

The use of Turkish soldiers would bring about another war,our elites may be an effete bunch of slimy toads but the people are not.

Richard MacEnroe,

There is a great deal of apathy towards the EU,witness the poor voting turout for EU elections.There is also a great deal of antipathy and in many countries EU rules and regulations are simply ignored.National identity is not erased so easily,especially those for whom no one has any respect.

This is only act one,there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth before we are done.

Feb 20, 2005 - 2:18 pm 25. richard mcenroe:

PeterUK ó Do you think the people who vote for/work for the EU still see themselves as Britons/French/etc. , or as “members of the European Communty” first? And the low turn-out seems to help a lot of EU officials, most of whom couldn’t get elected in their home countries, like Kinnock…

Feb 20, 2005 - 7:54 pm 26. Neo:

Maybe it has dawned on them, that just because they are beer-drinking and cheese-eating surrender-monkeys, that perhaps not all the world lacks a spine.

Naa!

Feb 21, 2005 - 5:43 am

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