107 Comments

1. Terrye:

After NATO, what? The EU? I doubt it will last 60 years.

But yeah, they aren’t even worth getting in a fight with.

Right now we need to talk to South Korea about that dollar thing.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:19 pm 2. yama-arashi:

Fear not America, look East (for Roger looking out his windows that would be West): there is more over here than just sushi. As NATO is in its death throes the U.S. and Japan are picking up the slack. I am not surprised the MSM is missing all this, hey they had no clue the Berlin Wall was about to fall or Iraqis would vote. But over the weekend there was very big news with regards to North Korea. This is chess at a very high level.

U.S.-Japan Joint Statement on Security

news article

The statement by the U.S. and Japan makes clear, or as clear as these things can be made, that Taiwan has now become Japan’s problem as well. To this end Japan will further integrate its military with the U.S. and train to meet common objectives such as protecting Taiwan from an invasion by China. China, too tricky by a half the last few years, vis-a-vis its gamesmanship in North Korea and making outlandish claims like Okinawa should be part of China’s empire, has been punished. The two most technologically advanced economies, and best navies, have finally become the alliance that was always meant to be. Details, details, like article nine of Japan’s constitution, will be knocked out in short time–the Japanese public is on board. One hopes Russia–with old memories of the turn of the last century when Japan supported by the U.S. (Teddy Roosevelt) and the U.K. cleaned their clock, and more recent memories of Reagan-Nakasone-Thatcher putting an end to the Soviet empire with a pincers movement that included a significant military buildup along its eastern and western fronts–will sit this one out. One also hopes China will cut its losses and maneuver a face saving retreat. A move made that much more difficult to make with France, after doing such a wonderful job with Hussein in his last days, now whispering sweet nothings into the mythical middle kingdom’s ear.

To use an old line, with regards to North Korea, “It’s China, stupid.” In a way I think I am disagreeing with Steyn. In the big picture America is gaining allies determined to step up and battle fascism and communism, protect human rights and liberty, along with tradition, the West is not only Germany and France and the East, as France wants it to be, is not just China.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:20 pm 3. PSGInfinity:

Bravo, Mark, Bravo!!!!

That is EXACTLY what I’ve been thinking for months! Sorry, Roger, but the truth has been revealed. And the truth has always excited me, so I revel in apologize for my outburst.

Many months ago, some wise soul mused that the U.S. had ascended to the level of China: that we no longer had permanent allies or enemies, only permanent interests. Well, our interests are now converging with Australia & Japan, competing with China, and diverging from “Europe” (at greater / lesser pace). I’m sorry, folks, but this is the inevitable corollary, if that statement is true.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:23 pm 4. richard mcenroe:

Europe has always suffered from a bit of cognitive dissonance anyway, saying “the West” and thinking “the Center”.

The qualities that defined the West still exist; they’ve just moved to the US and Australia, and will form a synergy we still cannot predict in the free Middle East.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:26 pm 5. promoguy:

Terrye, you’re very optimistic with that 60 years. Prager had author Bat Ye’or discussing her new book Eurabia: The Euro Arab Axis.

The impression I got was that burkhas will be haut couteur (sp) in a few years. After listening to her, even 30 years may be optimistic.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:45 pm 6. jedrury:

Steyn, the humorist, becomes the prophet. His aim is Europe and the last vestage of NATO. He and Roger, in his sushi reference, are right. His next column will be on China and the real future. Not the real opponent [can we drop the war references?] but the future which matters -

at the corner Wal Mart!!!

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:55 pm 7. truepeers:

Well what is Europe to become if it is no longer part of the west? A permanent decline and collapse into the Umma? Maybe, but this seems less likely to me than that they will eventually come to terms with the fact that they have to somehow become more like America. That, after all, is what the EU could become if they integrate and then start throwing off all the bureaucracy and impediments to democracy and economic productivity that are part and parcel of the integration process. (Or, they could return to being independent and fiercely competitive nations, typically western that…) Surely that is more likely given where they are coming from than that they will allow themselves to be governed under Islam. Sooner or later they will have to make their choice, but they are still in the wishful thinking stage where hard choices are postponed.

And let’s not forget that the whole world will be facing what Europe now faces, in a generation or two: the fertility collapse, which is pretty much worldwide, once you take into account the recent one-time boost in populations caused by the reduction of high child mortality rates. This is the challenge of how to maintain a creative culture and economy in the face of declining population and increasing demands for investment in human capital just to keep the old systems going. No one has the answer to this yet, and for all we know Europe will have to find a solution before America and so will get a jump on the next stage of history.

Yet I tend to agree with those who think that the west is moving eastward, and that the next big dialectical stage in history is the mixing of western and east Asian cultures. However, it is naive to read the collapse of NATO as sign of a collapse of “the west”. The west, through most of its history, grew in importance because of its internal rivalries that no would-be emperor could control and quiet. I would bet on such rivalries reviving, not disappearing.

Feb 22, 2005 - 8:56 pm 8. TedN:

In say, 1100, you could pretty easily make 100 year predictions without worring about getting them wrong (or living to see them): “More of the same, unless we have a plague, in which case more of the same, but worse”.

Right now I don’t think it makes sense to try to predict more than a year or two, much less 30 or 60. Remember 10 years ago was 1995, when people were vaguely aware of an “information superhighway, rock music was actually in a renaissance, and you got your news from the TV. To some extent, demography is still destiny: if the kids aren’t here today, the 40 year olds won’t be there in 40 years, but on the other hand, what if people basically stop dying? That far out it’s not that far fetched.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:14 pm 9. PSGInfinity:

jedrury

Agreed. The IslamoFascistic War’s dynamic, in fact, is setting up the dynamic of the Sino-American ‘conflict’. China, notice, has seemed to act like an anvil, to our hammer. No big surprise, since they have a relatively minor IslamoTerror problem, out in their westernmost provinces. Keep them under control, assure access to oil and uranium, and they’re set. We’re the ones with the sense of urgency, since we need to quickly clear the decks AND bring India up to speed, as they will be vital to the coming conflict.

Basically, it looks like it will be China (and allies) vs. US/Australia/ Japan/Whomever Survives the current war. With India as the wildcard, and Global Domination the prize. Strap in, pop the popcorn, and hang on, it’s going to be a very wild ride.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:19 pm 10. thibaud:

“The West” didn’t die on 9/11; it died ten years earlier, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Has zip to do with “culture” or muslims and everything to do with the end of the freak episode in diplomatic history that was the Cold War.

Bush hatred, too, is beside the point, which is that the hatred has always been just beneath the surface. Dependence and impotence magnify it,a nd nothing underscored Europe’s impotence so much as the specter of an America unbound by any real rival.

Which is to say that the high watermark of anti-US sentiment, at least in France, was almost certainly 1991-92, when we saw an outpouring of hatred, bile and paranoia directed at Bush’s America– ie, the America of George Bush Sr. I vividly recall a lengthy post-LA riots cover story in Le Nouvel Observateur in 1992 entitled, “Comment les Etats-Unis ont perdu leur hegemonie” [How the US lost its dominance]. It reprised every one of the fashionable declinist arguments of the era, including the inevitable dwarfing of the US by the Japanese juggernaut, and added a typically French spin on the cultural depravity of the mongrel melting pot society and the even greater depravity of US capitalism. Also featured in the article were the usual cartoons, worthy of Pravda, sneering at Bush’s military triumph over Saddam. Sound familiar?

The crucial facts here are that 1) multi-state alliances are borne of common enemies and roughly comparable capabilities; and 2) the axis of history now runs from Washington through Tokyo, Beijing and New Delhi.

Europe Inc. does not perceive enemies, only customers, and our militaries are of such different orders of sophistication as to be literally inoperable together. And an increasingly non-European America will very soon be dominated by elites who have little affinity for Europe and a great interest in China and India, the countries to which, 20 years from now, as many as a third of this country’s leaders will claim descent. Look westward, Americans. Asian Century now.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:26 pm 11. Harry:

Ah, the usual barking up the wrong tree in here.

America’s decline is inevitable.

It’s just invading Iraq while it can.

Clinton visited us in Hong Kong yesterday to sign his book at a shopping mall.

At the bookshop he bought a book of photographs and “Collapse”, a book by Jared Diamond, about how civilisations collapse.

Look it up in Amazon.

It’s very apt.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:30 pm 12. thibaud:

Funny, Harry, but I’ve been hearing your argument ever since I could read the New York Review. First it was the inevitable decline of pitiful Vietnam-era, post-Bretton Woods America in the early 70s.

Then it was the inevitable decline of America reeling from OPEC and the Ayatollah and the Soviets during the Carter era.

Then it was it was the inevitable decline of Reagan’s shambolic militaristic American swaggerer during the early ’80s and the inevitable decline due to overstretch and Japan the Indomitable during the late 80’s and early ’90s.

Are you related to that British communist who used to tell the faithful every year for half a century that “Socialism is just around the corner, comrades”?

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:47 pm 13. Morgan:

Yama-arashi, I haven’t seen your name around before, but hope you will continue to comment.

I think Steyn is right – the concept of “the West” is dead. My only question is, when was it ever really alive? When it was synonymous with Christendom? When it was “those nations threatened by the Soviet Union?”

The spread of democracy and free markets and the fall of the Soviet Union have rearranged the natural alliances. The shakeout isn’t complete, but it is clear that Europe (at least continental Europe) stands at a greater remove from the US on the dimensions that matter than do Japan and Australia.

Might the tides of history push us together again? Sure. But currently we are drifting apart, and have almost lost one another over the horizon.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:49 pm 14. thibaud:

Actually, native-born Americans and Euros are converging in most areas of culture and society, especially as regards family structure and attitudes toward homosexuality, divorce, child-rearing, cohabitation, etc etc. Likewise, the Europeans have become much more capitalistic during recent decades– the privatizing and deregulating Mitterrand and Jospin did in France put Thatcher to shame.

The area of greatest social divergence has to do with each side’s immigrant groups: ours are overwhelmingly made up of fervent Christians derived from Mexico, Korea, China and elsewhere in East Asia; Europe’s are fervent muslims from Africa and the ME.

The main source of divergence, however, has nothing to do with culture and everything to do with hard geostrategic realities. We’d clash with the Euros even if Mikey Maroon were in the White House. Anyone recall how much Jimmy Carter was hated by the likes of Giscard and Helmut Schmidt?

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:03 pm 15. Harry:

thibaud

American decline is a reality. Its happening as I write. The US economy grows weaker, relatively, by the day. Of course its important to say the word is relative. I forgot to mention it first time round. Perhaps that’s what is confusing you. But ‘relative’ counts, in a world of competition.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:10 pm 16. yama-arashi:

Morgan,

Thank you for the kind words. A friend of mine set up a type-key account with this alias a while back, though I don’t think he used it much, and last week explained to me how to use it and ordered me to read Roger’s sight and comment if I could. It really is great fun, the blogosphere.

I agree with your struggle over what the words “the West” mean. I have a hard time believing modern France and Germany, in deed (as opposed to a few opportune words), ever have had much to do with the concept, and that perhaps upon more study, outside the academy whose soul aim is protecting the modern European continental traditions (re: France and Germany), people will come to understand that “the East,” especially Japan, has in many ways always been “Western.”

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:18 pm 17. Morgan:

thibaud:

The dimensions that matter are the geostrategic ones, not the microcultural ones. If the US abolished the death penalty, that would not reduce tensions one iota, because we confront threats in very different ways, and have very different ideas about the role of our respective nations in the world.

The spread of democracy and free markets has moved many more nations into our neighborhood, but not the European ones – they were already in the neighborhood, but we are moving away from one another in the way that we approach the world. We’re quite friendly with some of the new neighbors, however.

Our natural allies are democracies that can/do take the same approach to solving common threats. Europe is deeply into the notion of appeasement – I’ll posit that they see it as a strategic necessity, because the threat they face is internal. The threats to the US and Japan and South Korea and Israel are external, and shared to some extent – they’re the new neighbors.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:29 pm 18. Morgan:

yama-arashi:

A common discussion on this blog is the loss of meaning of politically charged terms like “Left” and “Right”, “Liberal” and “Conservative”. Maybe we can add “East” and “West”.

I look forward to future discussions. I must sleep.

And I agree, the blogosphere is great fun.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:42 pm 19. Harry:

I notice that Steyn predictably moans about the alleged non-contribution of Europeans to the War on Terror. He is very selective telling his little NATO tale. He neglects to mention that France is involved in Afghanistan, running bases with the Americans and training Afghanis. France too was instrumental in capturing Zacarias Moussaoui, giving the Americans vital intelligence information.

Steyn’s always a bit of a laugh:

“In a year’s time, Iraq will be, at a bare minimum, the least badly-governed state in the Arab World and, at best, pleasant, civilized and thriving.” (Daily Telegraph, 12 April 2003)

“Another six weeks of insurgency sounds about right, after which it will peter out …” (The Spectator, 27 December 2003)

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:47 pm 20. heather:

I’m going over to Britain to take a look at the great cathedrals, etc., with the certain knowledge that their days are numbered…

and putting front and center that truly shocking article on ‘honor killings’ in Arabia (See Victor Davis Hanson’s site, http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/burton022005.html)

which is a definite reality check: the ME cannot be anything like a modern area so long as it treats its women (the mothers of the children, the daughters, etc etc) like garbage. I retain my hope in Iraq, because my impression is it may be modernized. However.. and I know that these honor killings continue in the diaspora (like Canada). Truly, the hijab and girls going to school are key to the success of this “War on Terror.”

Similarly, I think that this ‘woman issue’ must be taken into consideration when we look to the West as a continuing entity. And by The West, we mean a financial system that respects the individual, a justice system that is separate from politics; a political system in which people are primarily CITIZENS, where there are no slaves.

Feb 22, 2005 - 11:03 pm 21. truepeers:

yama-arashi: “I agree with your struggle over what the words “the West” mean. I have a hard time believing modern France and Germany, in deed (as opposed to a few opportune words), ever have had much to do with the concept… people will come to understand that “the East,” especially Japan, has in many ways always been “Western.”

I too want to welcome you, but I have to say this is a challenging statement. I’m willing to grudgingly consider that France has not proved lately a major part of “the West” (its relative marginality with the growth of the industrial age would help account for its supremacy in western intellectual life, until recently – new ideas come from the margins; indeed the anglophone world was only 3 million marginal people 400 years ago!), but surely if the west is to include the English-speaking countries, then Germany would be our closest cousin.

“The West” is readily defined in terms of the Judeo-Christian tradition in productive interaction with (because we might not include Christian countries like Ethiopia, Armenia, or even Russia) the metaphysical tradition that emerged from Greece. But I don’t know how to approach the idea that Japan has in many ways always been western. Something must indeed account for its early success among the East Asian countries in industrializing and embracing modern sciences. Geography and political culture can explain part of it; on the other hand, I imagine its scientific practice is less theoretical than pragmatic and in this respect not very “western”. Certainly, there is nothing comparable to the western philosophical tradition, for better and for worse. Anyway, on another note, I am curious how you see Japan facing up to its own fertility crisis and lack of enthusiasm for opening the doors wide to immigrants.

As for China (and to a lesser extent India) it has a long way to go yet to prove all its boosters right. All it has shown so far is an ability to import technology and capital and marry it to cheap labor primarily in service to export markets. It remains far from clear whether it has the political culture to create a strongly integrated internal market with all the financial mechanisms necessary to create both a widely enjoyed consumer culture, and national integration as a military and intellectual superpower. We could well see China split up in the not too distant future. Lack of political and historical vision seems endemic there, as we are witnessing once again with the North Korea crisis.

And finally, in response to all the comments here, if Europe opens its doors wide to Chinese, Indian, and southeast Asian immigrants – transforming itself into a second generation “United States”, the global dynamic being anticipated here changes radically. No?

Feb 22, 2005 - 11:28 pm 22. George C:

NATO is an organization created a half-century ago to counter a common threat to Europe and America from a nation that no longer exists. Coalitions must naturally crystallize about common interests, and nothing illustrates the change in perceived interests between the US and the EU more than the European desire to sell weapons to China. This shows us that there are, in fact, no core interests about which the North Atlantic Alliance might be maintained. As has been said, quite rightly in my opinion, th demise of NATO became inevitable with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Rather than respond to this change the US during the Clinton Administration actually spread NATO to the east, using it out of its original treaty area in Bosnia in the Russian sphere of influence, and practically shoved it in the Russian face in the Baltic States. In the Bosnian case NATO was used to counter a lack of UN approval, and the French seemed happy enough to have it happen.

The reason it happened was because the Europeans had no military capacity to counter instability in their own backyard and had to rely upon the US to do it. This political embarrassment was covered by the use of NATO. The United States, in turn, perpetuated the delusion that there was an actual military alliance, because NATO was from the first a major source of US influence in Europe. The French and the Germans, having once again been helped by the US, saw that the Russians were greatly insulted by the NATO Bosnian intervention, and turned away from the US toward the Russians. Apparently the Europeans have decided that perfidious diplomatic maneuvering may take the place of a strong military defense. Indeed, they have no choice inasmuch as they have no adequate military resources.

I believe that, far from principled dissent, the Europeans balked at the Iraq war because they are deeply concerned that the War On Terror will require active military assistance, and therefore an increase in their defense spending. When the EU was first contemplated the US nuclear umbrella, and the warm certitude that the US would come to their rescue if the Soviet Union ever breached the Fulda Gap, was factored into its economic structure. Because of the relative differences in growth rates among the EU nations, caps on deficits were absolutely necessary. Any borrowing (for defense for instance) outside those limits would put the agreed framework in jeopardy. In addition, the level of social welfare spending in Europe has been possible only because the US has spent trillions of dollars on a common defense. In other words the Europeans cannot bring down the level of social spending without putting the present regimes in disfavor, yet the country to which they looked for a free ride in regard to defense has embarked upon an expensive enterprise they cannot afford.

It is time to withdraw from NATO. I have no reason to believe that will happen soon, however. Decrepit bureaucracies of that size do not go gently. The least we can do, it seems to me, is to avoid wasting resources to defend “allies” with no perceivable return for ourselves. Steyn is right, this particular form of the ?West? as in, “the Western Alliance” is in decline.

Feb 22, 2005 - 11:59 pm 23. truepeers:

Oh, I forgot to mention sub-Saharan Africa. When Europe really throws open the doors, it will find many productive (already Christian) immigrants here.

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:01 am 24. yama-arashi:

truepeers,

I agree it was a provocative statement. I also agree in your couching the Western tradition in terms of Greece, in this I trust you mean primarily Athens, and the Judeo-Christian tradition, or one could say Jerusalem. It seems these two poles, and the productive tension between them accounts for much of what has come to mean “the West.” I also take solace in the fact that you seem to understand there is something about modernity that may have lost contact with those older, productive tensions.

I think you put France more into this camp than Germany, though I would include both.

Might not Japan also be a product of like tensions. It seems to me you are viewing Japan in a modern light, whereas I was getting at its roots, its raison d’etre. You admit Japan has been receptive to modern “Western” ideas but you dismiss as beyond your understanding the why this is so. And you dismiss it in such a way as to preclude yourself from being open to wanting to learn. This is unfortunate. If one were to study the roots of Japan, and not through the lens of modern continental philosophy and the preconditions it creates, but with a true understanding of the enlightenment fostered by Athens/Jerusalem, I believe one would find many parallels and the same underlying tensions. Of course you’ll have to master Japanese, not just learn it. You’ll also have to get over being able to confidently say things like in the East “there is nothing comparable to the western philosophical tradition.” But when I wrote what I said before I was mostly thinking about the political realm. One cannot begin to understand the East and especially Japan, and here I agree with you that geography is key, unless one gets over the despotic East meme. The striking thing about Japan, historically, if one has the eyes to see it, is its love of liberty and its understanding of the need for limits and controls over power.

But this is a long story to tell, way out of my pay grade, and because of WW2 there is much that has to be overcome before starting the discussion with a western audience. But I stand by my statement. I believe Japan is doing a much better job of protecting the “Western” tradition than France and Germany, and I believe one of the reasons this is is because it is doing a better job of protecting its own traditions. Ipso facto, as I said before, Japan has in many ways always been “Western.” Or from another angle, “the West” has in many ways always been Japanese. This of course brings into question the famous song, “I think I’m turning Japanese.”

Feb 23, 2005 - 1:33 am 25. David Thomson:

ìTry to imagine significant numbers of French, German or Belgian troops fighting alongside American forces anywhere the Yanks are likely to find themselves in the next decade or so: it’s not going to happen.î

I completely agree. The hell with the parasitical Old Europeans. The United States needs to get closer to India, China, and the other growing nations. It is not our problem that the Old Europeans are so silly. We should keep the door open, but itís up to them to reenter the room.

Their welfare state mindset is unlikely to be changed. And if this is indeed the case—they are royally screwed. The Old Europeans are similar to the progeny of wealthy parents who will do nothing more than waste away their inheritance.

Feb 23, 2005 - 2:38 am 26. ordi:

I think Rumsfeldís could help Steyn with a slight rewrite of ìthe death of the West”.

Rummy would suggest it be the death of the ìOLD West” and ask the birth of the ìNEW West” be noted.

Feb 23, 2005 - 3:06 am 27. truepeers:

My dear yama-arashi,

Your post is tantalizing in what it proposes to argue. And while you may well be right that such a conversation cannot be easily initiated with someone largely ignorant of Japanese traditions, I have to ask if you are not willing to say a little more. I readily admit that there are many things beyond my present understanding; but please donít take this to mean an unwillingness to learn. If I make bold statements, it is only because the confident and provocative approach is often a good step in finding conversation with fearless partners. It is certainly not a claim of infallibility.

I would very much like to hear more about the tensions internal to Japanese culture that give it something analogous to the Athens-Jerusalem dynamic. How would I briefly describe this dynamic from the western side? Well, on the one hand, Athens is the tradition that privileges esthetic exploration as a route to human self knowledge; and it also invents the democratic contest over metaphysical formulae. Greek metaphysics were detached from claims to historically revealed (e.g. religious) truths, and made the privilege of social elites, thus allowing for a vigorous intellectual life that did not threaten the social order.

On the other hand, Jerusalem is the tradition that removes the esthetic figure from religious contemplation, creating a figureless or abstract center of sacred attention that demands a patient awaiting of divine truth through the lived historical experience of the chosen people or nation. In downplaying the esthetic, it opens up an engagement with the world through the divine laws that have been handed down, and the principles of morality developed in oneís personal conversation with the divine and prophetic revelations. A fundamental or universal morality is thus distinguished from the ethics relative to time, place, and worldly social distinctions, creating a productive tension between the two. And, of course, Jerusalem favors exodus and nationalism over empire.

In their interaction, Athens is conducive to having elites trading in ideas and theories, while Jerusalem provides morality conducive to the success of largely anonymous individuals in commercial marketplaces. And together this promotes a productive tension between periphery and center.

I would very much like to hear if you think Japanese traditions could be similarly described. And if I may be frank, while you politely warn me that I need to get over my impulse to think there is not a philosophical tradition in Japan comparable to that in the west, I suffer from this misapprehension because even Japanese people have told me some such thing; and so I need a good prodding if I am to be shown my blind spot and sold on further study. In any case, why is it that Japan does not desire to export its culture around the world in any where near the degree that the crusading west does?

One of the interesting things that is going on now in the west is that the productive tension between Athens and Jerusalem seems to be waning. Jerusalem seems to be proving its superiority, as the philosophers proclaim the end of metaphysics, seeing it as a form of elite violence less tenable than the humility and reciprocity key to Judeo-Christian morality and knowledge. The Judeo-Christian tradition has proven itself more than just another religion; it is a first-class route to human self-understanding when explored as such. It is also the foundation for nationalism and the national high cultures of the west which have discovered many things about our shared humanity. Yet if Athens is indeed on the wane, the Judeo-Christian tradition needs new dialectical partners and many of its participants are looking to the east for them. Iím one of them. But why should I give up the Chinese books that have been my early focus and turn to Japan?

Finally, I sense where you are leading when you speak of Japanese respect for freedom and recognition of the need to limit power. However, this is to some degree true of all peoples. We all desire more freedom than we have now. Some of us, however, are better at, or more determined, to get it. And some of us are more fearful that horrible things will happen if we break from the established mold. Being on the margins of empires helps one value freedom, and so I can readily imagine how geography is key to understanding Japan ñ similar to Britain perhaps? And if power were never readily centralized in Japan, this would suggest the potential for a creative and competitive dynamic internally, but also the need for a solution to maintain the cultureís creativity once it did become politically united. Here you will have to help me if I am to go further.

I will be away from this blog now for many hours; but I hope we can continue at a later time.

Feb 23, 2005 - 3:34 am 28. Hylas:

truepeers,

This is a slightly different take on the Athens-Jerusalem dynamic by Robert Kaplan.

An if you really want to delve into the subject, read this essay by Isaiah Berlin.

Berlin and Kaplan describe this dynamic as a tension in Western Civilization between two different ethical systems. The problem is to strike the right balance between the two:

Machiavelli’s cardinal achievement is his uncovering of an insoluble dilemma, the planting of a permanent question mark in the path of posterity. It stems from his de facto recognition that ends equally ultimate, equally sacred, may contradict each other, that entire systems of value may come into collision without possibility of rational arbitration, and that not merely in exceptional circumstances, as a result of abnormality or accident or error?the clash of Antigone and Creon or in the story of Tristan?but (this was surely new) as part of the normal human situation.

For those who look on such collisions as rare, exceptional, and disastrous, the choice to be made is necessarily an agonizing experience for which, as a rational being, one cannot prepare (since no rules apply). But for Machiavelli, at least in The Prince, The Discourses, Mandragola, there is no agony. One chooses as one chooses because one knows what one wants, and is ready to pay the price. One chooses classical civilization rather than the Theban desert, Rome and not Jerusalem, whatever the priests may say, because such is one’s nature, and?he is no existentialist or romantic individualist avant la parole?because it is that of men in general, at all times, everywhere. If others prefer solitude or martyrdom, he shrugs his shoulders. Such men are not for him. He has nothing to say to them, nothing to argue with them about. All that matters to him and those who agree with him is that such men be not allowed to meddle with politics or education or any of the cardinal factors in human life; their outlook unfits them for such tasks.

There does seem to be a similar tension between Taoism and Confucianism, or between Bushido and Zen. But I’m not the one to give that lecture. I hope yama-arashi finds time to elaborate on his thoughts.

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:24 am 29. jerry:

The West is inseparable from its Judeo-Christian heritage. Europe/Canada has moved into a post Christian world and has exhausted its stock of moral capital. Europe is no longer Western, which is why its economy is in shambles and is incapable of defending itself. Europe is culturally adrift and will self-destruct in the next 50 years.

The US is not totally immune to this cultural decline. Roughly half the country has past in the post-Christian era and is no longer truly western. We see this split on this board where both former leftist and Libertarians reject the notion of objective morality and endorse practices that are merely social preferences. What is keeping us from or perhaps only delaying our decline is the significance of religion in the native population and immigration from Latin America. Ultimately, Harry is right but not for the reasons he believes. He undoubtedly thinks that our failure to adopt socialism will result in economic collapse. That is far from the truth. The US economy is a juggernaut that is keeping Europe, Japan and China afloat. If the US economy were to collapse we face a global depression. However, We losing our cultural heritage relative to the rest of world, and if this decline is not arrested we will follow Europe into the dustbin of history.

Note to Thibaud on past discussion topics. There is a report that Richard Dawkins, High Priest of the Neo-Darwinian atheists, has joined the Anglican Church. Another secular humanist bites the dust.

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:33 am 30. yama-arashi:

truepeers,

I was very glad to read your last reply. Obviously you have a willingness to learn, and if I implied anything else it was wrong. Apologies. Whether I have an ability to explain myself clearly in this kind forum, or anywhere else for that matter is another question.

One important point can be cleared up quickly. I wrote in an earlier post, “You’ll also have to get over being able to confidently say things like in the East “there is nothing comparable to the western philosophical tradition.” You reply, “And if I may be frank, while you politely warn me that I need to get over my impulse to think there is not a philosophical tradition in Japan comparable to that in the west, I suffer from this misapprehension because even Japanese people have told me some such thing; and so I need a good prodding if I am to be shown my blind spot and sold on further study.” Note I said “the East” and not Japan. This is not to mean Japan is not an important part, the most important part given what I was trying to argue, of this tradition. It is to say do not give up your Chinese books, and Chinese if you have it. The same books, and the same language, indeed, were a critical part of the wonderful mix, tension, that led to and sustained, still sustains, the Japanese enlightenment. That Japanese people have told you this or that blah blah blah means very little to me. Especially if they are academics trained in continental traditions. Japanese people tell me this and that everyday. Who told you what?

As an aside you ask “why is it that Japan does not desire to export its culture around the world in any where near the degree that the crusading west does?” Are you sure it doesn’t. But perhaps you can be even more successful if not appearing to be crusading. Now crusading is a loaded word so I’ll drop it, but it would be a mistake to assume that Japan doesn’t influence in all matters great and small. Of course they also are very influenced. Again it is a very productive and very long standing dynamic. It would be a mistake to buy into the Japan was isolated meme. Though it has spent a leisurely time digesting after especially big meals throughout its history. In a word, when I look at the great French Impressionist I know from whom they took their ideas. It is like this with many things. All things no, but surprisingly many things–yes.

I found your last paragraph very good. You take words right out of my mouth. In any comparison you lose important things, but Britain is the parallel.

You’ll have to accept my apology for avoiding the meat. It is tricky and a lot of ground needs to be covered in order to even begin. I’ve been taken down the path a few times by competent folks but I am not sure I remember the way. Moreover, doing it in English is a problem. But maybe we will be able to slowly make progress. Of course you have given me a lot to think about, and I appreciate that.

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:23 am 31. Philomathean:

Low birthrates, lavish social spending and impractical socialist policies are driving the economies of most European countries into the toilet. The EU won’t solve this problem — if anything it will make things worse. At the same time, Europe is now stuck with large populations of hostile Muslims intent on undermining their host countries.

At some point, the Europeans are going to wake up. But I don’t think they will be smart enough to embrace American values. They are more likely to turn to right wing anti-immigrant parties and embrace fascism. That may sound crazy, but it’s happened before.

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:34 am 32. David C:

On the “Japan exporting its culture” issue, I read a fascinating article fairly recently that in terms of “cultural exports,” (and this was based on hard sales statistics, not just bloviation) Japanese exports are exceeded *only* by those of the United States. Rather startling, as we’re used to thinking of Japan as an insular, unique culture.

On “the West,” I think Steyn is correct that it’s dead, but I think continental Western Europe will eventually rejoin the West. Right now, they’re in the “denial” stage, refusing to view the present and future clearly. But reality is annoyingly persistent, and I think it’ll eventually hit hard. And quite possibly “hard” in a very literal sense, as in “Marseille (or Antwerp, or Hamburg, or Naples) destroyed by nuclear device” hard.

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:46 am 33. thibaud:

The crucial question is how we’re to engage with, relate to, compete with, cooperate with China and India. NATO is not merely irrelevant to these out-of-area challenges; it’s a complete joke. Our allies are eagerly selling China the systems that will enable China to slaughter our allies and our sailors and airmen in the near future. So much for the alliance.

As to China/India’s relevance to the cultural issues that bind, or separate, the nations of what used to be called the West, this will take us into uncharted territory. India’s democratic; China far from it; neither society has any large cultural points of convergence with western societies. OTOH there is now a sizeable business elite in each country that has trained or even built businesses in the US and that can navigate easily between our and their cultures.

Economically, too, the picture is complex. Neither of these economies has much transparency, and the banking sector in particular is largely a sham characterized by loan portfolios of dubious quality. China and India are developing along different paths, making it difficult to develop one policy that accomodates each. China’s becoming a manufacturing giant deeply integrated with our own manufacturing economy; India’s still basically an offshore IT and call center domicile.

All of which leads one to conclude that our best hope is for a new elite in this country that is not eurocentric, that has a deep knowledge of China and India both, and that is committed to a diplomacy and a cultural engagement strategy based on the creation of new, Asia-centric multilateral institutions.

Fukuyama’s proposal for an OSCE-style group comprising US-J-China-Russia-SKor should be expanded to include India and Australia. We should shift attention and resources away from Europe and toward this new interstate system ASAP.

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:57 am 34. Knucklehead:

Wow, what a fantastic discussion! It has already run away from my ability to thread myself into it and, anyway, I am keenly aware that I am insufficiently knowledgable and skilled to add anything worthy of the discussion. Fortunately (for me) that has never stopped me from splatting my knuckleheaded notions onto the table.

I’ll join others above in welcoming yama-arashi. And now, into the fray in my, disjointed, knuckleheaded way.

First the easy one. Nato no longer serves any particularly useful funtion to the US as a military defense organization. Europe doesn’t see any need, any threat, sufficient to pay the price to contribute significant military resources. It is time to draw down US military contributions to match the level of the Euros and, eventually, to let the thing wither away. I’ll leave it to people smarter than me to determine the timelines, logistics, and political niceties of such a drawdown. But Europe’s “threats” are internal and if and when they boil over to violence I do not wish there to be US military bases filled with US soldiers and equipment standing by and faced with the impossible task of being both the convenient scapegoat and the only viable source of violent power. Get them out ASAP and leave the defense of Europe, whatever that entails, to the Euros.

As someone above said, the Euros no longer see enemies, only customers. This is true in the economic or commercial sense, but not quite yet true in the “psychological” sense. The Euros see one remaining enemy and that is us, the US. They no longer see themselves as having any cultural connection to the US. The cultural connection is not recoverable when it is only one side with any desire to continue it. It is time for the US to recognize that Europe is nothing more to us than a customer and vendor – a purely commercial relationship. They’ll gladly accept payment to rummage their museums for those who wish to engage in historic cultural research but the cultural connection is history and not a significant influence moving forward. In terms of mutual defense, it’s “Tatta, Love, let’s do lunch and talk business.”

Beyond the Nato angle it strikes me that there are two overarching themes or threads in this discussion. One is whether or not “the west” is finished as a culture. Since I’ve never been able to put my finger on what “the west” is, I’m perfectly happy with declaring it a useless or worn out notion moving forward. I understand the germ of it as Greece and “Jerusalem”, but then came Rome, the barbarians from what are now France, Germany, Scandinavia, etc. Italian city-states, Holy Roman Empire, French Empire, English Empire, attempts to build German Empire, incursians by The Bear… whatever the west was in is no longer.

But one thing that has not changed for “the west”, at least the Europe portion of the nebula, is “looking east”. Europe has always looked “east” for commerce and threats. What we’ve lost track of is that for a long while “looking east”, for Europe, meant traveling west across the Atlantic. The US, on the other hand, looked east to Europe and west to Asia.

Both Europe and the US are looking toward Asia as the “future”. We, however, look across the Pacific Ocean to see Asia. Europe looks across Russian and the Middle East. We each have the same object in mind the difference is one of directions and “allies” useful to get there. For Europe those are Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Arabian ME. For us it is Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philipines, Malaysia, India, etc.

Just one knucklehead’s opinion, but I would rather face the 21st century challenge of China, and Asia as a whole, working with and through Japan, Taiwan, India, etc that to face it with the set of “friends” and “allies” the Euros are snuggling up to.

Oh, and one last thing… probably should have put this earlier. We often accuse the Euros of “appeasement” of the Islamofascists. It occurs to me that this is an inaccurate description. It seems to me the Euros have moved beyond attempting to “appease” the Islamofascists and are fully persuing accomodation. They are fully willing to bend their culture and society to whatever degree necessary to join themselves with the Islamic world.

Well, sorry for splatting those disjointed and knuckleheaded notions. Please carry on – I am thoroughly enjoying the edumacation y’all are delivering to my monitor.

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:15 am 35. ed:

Old alliances wonít die so long as it remains so affordable to fly to the UK and we resist teaching Eastern languages in high schools. The kids are still learning Spanish and French! What’s up with that?

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:24 am 36. chuck:

Harry,

American decline is a reality. Its happening as I write.

So what. I never gave a rat’s ass about being number one. I suspect many other Americans feel the same. We do what we do and as long as we get along we go along, the rest just happens. It takes real work to make Americans really care about strange foriegn lands. This ranking of nations is good sport and all that, but soooo European. Oh well. I guess if you can’t ride at least you can bet on the horses.

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:25 am 37. ed:

They are fully willing to bend their culture and society to whatever degree necessary to join themselves with the Islamic world.

Have you been over there recently? Now, I’m in New York so maybe my sense is just a little skewed, and I was over there over Christmas, but appeasment would be the last word to describe the situation. More like “out of sight, out of mind.”

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:27 am 38. Knucklehead:

Ed,

These things don’t happen overnight or even across a single generation. The “out of sight, out of mind” part can be confused with (it may actually be, I’m just a knucklehead making my own observations and analysis) “denial”. I see it as simply a function of imperfect timing. The Euros have clearing their “intellectual” and “cultural” decks for a long time. They are actively divorcing themselves from their cultural and intellectual past (for many centuries that included violent conflict with Islam) to psychologically prepare themselves for their future wedding. They are ignoring Islam long enough to clear their heads to allow for its acceptance.

There will be violent internal conflict within Europe as the holdouts, dead-enders, and reactionaries make a last ditch effort to “save their culture” but they will be unsuccessful. Within two generations, three tops (call it 60 years), European culture will be Islamified. It may not be seen as an abhorent bastardization of Islam to the “true believers” but it will be more Islamic than Judeo-Christian. As far as I can tell Islam is inherently more “fascist” than the Judeo-Christian heritage and Europe has long been moving toward fascism. Islam is the last piece of the puzzle needed to get them there. And they want to go – that’s the sad part.

I feel badly for Poland and some of the other escapees from the FSU. They’ve stepped out of the frying pan and into the fire and they don’t even know it yet and there isn’t a darned thing they can do about it.

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:41 am 39. lindenen:

“Old alliances wonít die so long as it remains so affordable to fly to the UK and we resist teaching Eastern languages in high schools. The kids are still learning Spanish and French! What’s up with that?”

The school system currently can barely teach its students to read at their grade level so I’m not shocked they’ve not attempted large scale teaching of Japanese or Chinese. From what I remember from high school, the quality of instruction of European foreign languages is pretty low as well.

Maybe I watch too much anime or am too aware of Japanese contributions to film but this idea that Japan keeps it culture to itself or doesn’t export it is so odd to me. You can see the influence of anime in everything from the style of the PowerPuff Girls cartoons to ad campaigns to [fill in the blank]. Isn’t Hello Kitty more popular than Mickey now? There’s also the disgusting new Gwen Stefani solo career. Gwen thinks it’s sooo funny to use Japanese women as props. I hate her. And Memoirs of A Geisha should be out in a year or two. Of course, it stars almost all Chinese actresses which is imo quite strange.

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:43 am 40. Morgan:

I wonder – if the US and Europe stopped treating one another like natural allies, would that reduce tensions? It seems to me that much of the trans-Atlantic strain is due to the violation of the presumption that we share values and should, therefore, pursue the same courses of action.

Not a complete explanation, for sure – many people in Europe are simply deeply suspicious of the motives of the US (despite, I would argue, reams of evidence to the contrary).

But if the US and Europe didn’t each expect the other to agree with them, might that suck a lot of the heat out of the situation? If Europe didn’t expect to have privileged input into US foreign policy decisions, and the US didn’t expect Europe to contribute to the implementation of its foreign policy, would that help?

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:52 am 41. yama-arashi:

Hylas,

I’d say Zen, as opposed to the many other forms of Buddhism here, is on the side of Bushido, when talking about large social tensions, or at the very least it was its friendly interlocutor or intermediary. Shinto + Zen =Bushido? Crudely speaking.

Knucklehead,

I like your schtick. If I were smarter I might become bold enough to give myself a similar alias. Sadly, I am not. I learned a lot from your post and all the posts here. My friend who told me to read Roger’s site and learn something was right. He also mentioned something about having to fell trolls. That I didn’t understand, but it sounds very medieval. Good night to all.

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:58 am 42. Knucklehead:

Entertainment is just one of the visible portions of “culture”. Can anyone identify any “European” form of entertainment that is “advancing” around the world? I suppose the central Europeans might identify some sex-based forms of entertainment that are “growing” in their neck of the woods.

Euros (and others) are quick to complain about “American Cultural Imperialism” as if there was some organized US governmental effort to “export Hollywood”. The “exportation” of a culture’s forms of entertainment, it seems to me, simply suggests that a particular culture is vibrant enough that its entertainments become popular elsewhere. If there’s any “truth” to that observation it suggests that the vibrant cultures are “American”, “Japanese” and, increasingly, Indian. “European” culture is decidedly non-vibrant – little more than hobbies, beach vacations, and trips to museums to admire what they did once upon a time.

Look west, young man!

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:59 am 43. PJ:

Europe is a bit of a puzzle. They produced the Renaiisance and the Enlightenment then skidded directly into Naziism, fascism…and let’s not forget the Inquisition. They have only stopped marching on their neighbors for the last 50 years or so, and France and Italy especially can’t seem to find a constitution they like well enough to keep.

I think size does matter. Abe Lincoln knew something when he threw everything at the seemingly hopeless pipe dream of keeping the union together. If California or the Plains states were countries today, what would hold their excesses in check? The US works in part because the South keeps the North in check, the fierce Scots-Irish offset the langour of the intelligentsia, and the heartland tempers the wickedness of the cities.

So I agree we are somewhat in decline, but we will hit bottom later rather than sooner. Our strength lies in the fact we manage to produce heroes like, for instance, our military. God bless them, and may it ever be so.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:01 am 44. D Anghelone:

Can anyone channel MacArthur? He seems to be fading back in.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:02 am 45. Knucklehead:

My schtick!?!? You cut me to the quick, Arashi! I am what I am – that’s all I can manage and I can’t manage no more. At least half of the conclusions I’ve arrived at as irrefutable have been demonstrated to be downright dumb. That’s why I listen to, and argue with, the good folks here at Roger’s Place and am happy when additional good folks belly up to the bar. I’ll skip the sushi for the most part but I’ll gladly tip a saki with you.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:11 am 46. richard mcenroe:

lindenen ó As a longtime fan of anime, both naughty and nice, since the days when you had to sniff it out in fourth floor shops in Little Tokyo in New York, the dynamic is much more complex than Japan’s simply “exporting” their culture… and perhaps more reflective of the actual relationship between the countries.

The graphic conventions of the anime genre are largely Western-derived; you see very few people with expressly Asian features. This is a development of the US postwar occupation. You also see very few SW Asian (Hindu, for example, or Arab/Semitic) characters who are presented as anything other than what would be considered overtly racist caricatures in the US. The scene compositions tend to be far more visually dynamic than that in Western animation, but the actual art is almost always very Western-literal. The movement is depicted far more literally in the high end work. In the lower-end work, camera movement is often substituted for character animation and the stylized movement conventions for movements such as running, punching, etc., evolve from the manga conventions in terms of use of speed lines and caricatured movement. To sum up, very simplistically, anime that looks Western crosses over very well, anime that moves away from Western graphic conventions, not so much. So perhaps it’s a case of Japanese culture exporting well the more closely it matches the native culture…

And of course for years there was a commercial synergy between American and Japanese animation firms, with American companies doing the design work and the Japanese the bulk animation. These days, much of the bulk work for both countries is now moving to Korea, but with the digital revolution, a lot of it is moving back to its native countries.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:12 am 47. Knucklehead:

Morgan,

It seems to me that much of the trans-Atlantic strain is due to the violation of the presumption that we share values and should, therefore, pursue the same courses of action.

Yes, things will get better when the breakup is complete and we no longer get all wired up about who the former beau is seeing and sleeping with. Steyn mentioned this in the piece Roger linked to. I believe the US will reach the point of civil and amiable co-existence sooner. Europe is still at the point of thinking of themselves as the more attractive, witty, intelligent, and interesting of the former lovers whose only mistake was to ever climb in bed with such an ugly, dumb, brute in the first place. They can’t fathom how we could dump them. They’ll get over it. Won’t help them much though in the long run. They are like those people who can’t grow old gracefully and keep insisting on trying to look and dress as if they are a twenty-something. No darlin, it’s not the fault of cheap makeup and skin cream, you really do have crows feet and sagging cheeks.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:22 am 48. lindenen:

Aw, see I don’t know that much about the anime genre or differing styles of anime. I just know the stuff my brother makes me watch when he commandeers the television. Most of what he watches he downloads from peer to peer sites and it doesn’t air in the US. He watches lots of anime with subtitles and sometimes orders dvd imports.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:26 am 49. Knucklehead:

Austin Bay thinks Steyn is wrong. That would put me in ‘not only wrong but looney-toons” category. Fortunately I have that terrain well mapped out and know where to find the stale bread and stagnant water. I won’t mind being wrong – it’s fine with me if Europe comes to its senses and grows some brains and balls, I just don’t see it happening. Europe is the birthplace of “Arbeit Mact Frei” and is moving, IMKO, surely and not so slowly toward, “Submission macht frei”.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:39 am 50. Sandy P:

– He neglects to mention that France is involved in Afghanistan, running bases with the Americans and training Afghanis. France too was instrumental in capturing Zacarias Moussaoui, giving the Americans vital intelligence information. –

$, Harry, solid $, how much did they ante up?

and considering I don’t think they’ve paid us back in full (inc. interest) for the Marshall Plan yet, put it on the tab. At least the Germans have.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:53 am 51. Sandy P:

No one remembers what the frogs did during the writing of the defense portion of the Constitution?

They left NATO out. The Brit refused to do anything until she received a copy in English.

It was an oversight, of course.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:57 am 52. yama-arashi:

Knucklehead,

Just as I was saying– Your irrefutable conclusions to downright dumb ratio is something I can only dream about. Plus you make me laugh. But I’ll keep calling you knucklehead if you insist. I lied before, but now it really is well past my futontime and I have to walk home still. Sure could use a drink right about now.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:01 am 53. Old Dad:

The death of the West? First, as many have noted, the concept is primarily cultural, with roots that reach back to Athens and Jerusalem. Very roughly speaking, the Western tradition is humanist. We tend to believe in the individual dignity of human beings, and we value freedom. Certainly we’ve seen many variations on this theme, but a theme it is.

On the other hand, the West has for centuries been a slaughterhouse, culminating in the horrors of the last century. Although China came late to the game, they caught up fast once infected by good old fashioned and Western totalitarianism.

Somewhere between the cathedral and the cemetery we are left with…what? The Old and New Testaments, the Torah, the Q’uran, the Magna Carta, the Declaration of Independence, Shakespeare, but as Hamlet knew, Yorick’s skull is never far beneath the surface.

Old Europe has largely frittered away its great cultural heritage, and that’s a pity, but much worse, it has neutered itself. The Cathedral at Chartres was built on the backs of Feudal slaves and funded at the end of a sword. There would have been no Chartres without the sword, and there will be no France, no West without the sword.

Europe has often been conquered by immigrant hordes. Will that be their fate again? It certainly seems so, but it’s not too late. As Steyn argues, The President recognizes Europe’s self imposed impotence. He’s rightly angling for the best deal that he can get–if you won’t help us at least try not to hurt us. Meanwhile, we resolutely pursue our national interest.

Jacques and Gerhard might want to take a history lesson. Nero wouldn’t be a bad place to start.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:07 am 54. Steven Mitchell:

I will not argue that geography is destiny (by any means), but I think it contributes a bit to what we are seeing now. For some reason, the “West” as a concept does better with a solid, secure base. Consider the isolation of Greece (vis-a-vis its threats) during its height.

It is not an accident, I think, that the strongest U.S. Allies are islands. Great Britain and Australia are already consistent and dependable allies. And Japan becomes more so every year. I think that geographically isolated regions produce more independent minded folks–and these are necessary for the West.

Of course, that doesn’t explain the U.S. Except that for much of its history, and still mostly true today, the U.S./Canada was an “island” of independence only weakly influenced by Mexico. Same as New Zealand has gone somewhat south, Canada has lost some of its independent nature. But the U.S./Australia are now on a too much of a tear to be side-tracked so easily by such a less powerful neighbor.

Places like India, Italy, and Chile are only semi-isolated (beaches and mountains). I doubt that they could achieve this “independent mindedness” alone. And of course, not all will. Spain is very much in question. But the potential is there, given a strong base of the “West” elsewhere. Eastern Europe is another such possibility–mainly because of it’s relatively united attitudes about such questions.

About the last places one would expect the “West” to survive, in even a semi-self-sustaining manner, are France, Germany, Russia, and China. About the first place one would expect it to emerge is Japan.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:11 am 55. Sandy P:

–, it’s not the fault of cheap makeup and skin cream, you really do have crows feet and sagging cheeks.–

Hey!

I resemble that remark.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:14 am 56. Morgan:

Sandy P:

Ha! I had the same thought about the “ugly, dumb, brute” portion of knucklehead’s comment.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:17 am 57. Stan:

Yama-arashi gives a refreshing perspective. Don’t forget Japan, still No. 2 in GDP?

Indeed, my contacts with Indians indicate that projected 25 years out the economic and geo-political center of gravity may very well be India. The demographics strongly favor India over China (the “one child” policy has resulted in a “birth-dearth” for China that will leave them with a huge elder population drag on a smaller young and middle age working population while India is currently producing the future tech. workers that will sustain their economic and technological growth).

An intriguing factor is India’s cultural bridging of the East and West – imbued with many of the old British systems and respect for the rule of law, experience in managing huge cultural differences (1000’s of subcultures not to mention Hindu v. Muslim) within a democratic framework and the complete embrace of the new technologies – they are comfortable in the West and are one of the successes of the Asia and the East. Needless to say I am very bullish on India – any and every country will need their support in this century.

Another poster had it just right – the axis of future power runs along Tokyo-Beijing-New Dehli. Can Washington DC be on that axis? – sure, but Brussels (EU)? Absent significant changes the odds are long.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:22 am 58. Sandy P:

Via Bros. Judd:

TIME TO DIG UP THE KRUGERANDS…AGAIN:

The Overstretch Myth (David H. Levey and Stuart S. Brown, March/April 2005, Foreign Affairs)

Would-be Cassandras have been predicting the imminent downfall of the American imperium ever since its inception. First came Sputnik and “the missile gap,” followed by Vietnam, Soviet nuclear parity, and the Japanese economic challenge–a cascade of decline encapsulated by Yale historian Paul Kennedy’s 1987 “overstretch” thesis.

The resurgence of U.S. economic and political power in the 1990s momentarily put such fears to rest. But recently, a new threat to the sustainability of U.S. hegemony has emerged: excessive dependence on foreign capital and growing foreign debt. As former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has said, “there is something odd about the world’s greatest power being the world’s greatest debtor.”…

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:29 am 59. Sandy P:

Indians have surpassed Asians, they’re the richest, most educated Americans.

Read that a couple of weeks ago.

Bobby Jindahl is just the beginning.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:35 am 60. TmjUtah:

Pretty impressive thread running here.

I’ll just contribute two personal opinions.

1. I believe that the flexibility and economic vitality inherent to the U.S. political system gives us a very good chance or remaining on any future “axis”.

2. I also believe that the EU as a governing body will prove so incapable of responding to the challenges affecting the population of Europe that it will collapse of its own weight within a decade.

The institution is so insulated from the actual people it governs that I doubt the fall will result in much more beyond empty office space and mercifully, finally, unemployed technocrats. That is conditional, of course, on the rise of reform governments in france and Germany that will have popular support and moxie to step back from welfare statism.

There are a lot of elephants in Europe’s living room. I am grateful that they have declined militarily to the point that war cannot be a default to solving their domestic problems.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:42 am 61. Knucklehead:

Sandy P & Morgan,

Kwitcherbellyachin and count your blessings. You could be ugly, dumb, brutes with crows feet and sagging cheeks rather than just one or the other. Take my word for it, its no picnic.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:50 am 62. Knucklehead:

Lexington Green at ChicagoBoyz seems to think Bush is doing a sockpuppet misdirection move. (That Steyn article is getting some attention!)

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:26 am 63. LouMinatti:

Harry,

You keep saying that America is toast, that “the US economy grows weaker, relatively, by the day”.

Can you explain why so many Europeans are fleeing for our shores? Since Europe is the current home of the “Yanks suck” movement, I’m curious to know your opinion on this. It’s strange that so many are predicting our downfall while at the same time they’re struggling to get here.

Thanks.

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:29 am 64. Jamie Irons:

Great thread!

I feel I am learning much today. (And a good thing, as it’s my birthday, and I’m up in Tahoe waiting for Nina to finish skiing, eager to get back home to the early spring of the California coastal range. Having grown up in northeastern Ohio, Chicago and Connecticut, I find all this snow a pain, though I love the fact that it supplies us with water!)

Anyway, the concensus seems to be that “the West” is dead or dying or changing into something new.

That’s probably a good thing.

The better parts of our American-ness seem to survive (in spite of our own best efforts too kill them off!) so I don’t worry too much.

But I think we best keep our powder dry.

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:31 am 65. Jamie Irons:

Sorry…I of course meant to write consensus!

(Derived from L. consentire, so it shouldn’t be hard to get it right!

;-(

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:40 am 66. Knucklehead:

Jamie,

The concensus is, undoubtedly, Happy Birthday! Why aren’t you skiing? Gravity is your friend, embrace it.

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:47 am 67. Kyda Sylvester:

Early in Dubya’s first term, I envisioned a new great alliance: US, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea and, of course, the ever stalwart Great Britain and Australia. There have been any number of snags since, especially as regards Russia which seems more interested these days in allying with our ideological enemies, but my vision still stands (maybe we’ll have to do without Russia).

Indians are highly intelligent and creative, especially in the technical and scientific disciplines (where we so sorely are lacking these days). If India can get a handle on that caste system thing and the massive, debilitating poverty, there will be no stopping her. It is the relationship I would work on most if I were in charge.

We have a formal living room in our house. It’s filled with nice things but, since we rarely are in there, it’s basically useless. That’s how I feel about Europe anymore–it’s full of nice stuff but basically useless.

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:59 am 68. Jamie Irons:

Thanks, Knucklehead!

I grew up in snowy, but very flat country, and so never learned to ski. (I do cross country a bit, but it’s too warm today.)

I am probably too old to learn real skiing now; I want to keep being able to move around, without fractured limbs, as long as possible!

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:00 am 69. Jamie Irons:

Just a little OT, Harold Bloom, who was one of my teachers at Yale, has a wonderful essay in the WSJ today on a significant contributor to our Western tradition, Miguel de Cervantes; Don Quixote is 400 years old.

(Makes me feel young!)

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:04 am 70. PJ:

I think we all agree something big is happening, a primal shift, and the war in Iraq is only one manifestation.

Go Lebanon!

(BTW, O/T love your poetry site, Jamie Irons. Do you know Frederick Turner’s work on the war?)

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:35 am 71. ed:

Kyda,

Don’t forget about South Korea’s little financial move they pulled yesterday.

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:36 am 72. Sandy P:

Yup, they want to be free of Uncle Sam.

Time to move the troops out, after all, NorK is almost over. and they’re going to need all the money they can, those NorK are hungry!

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:43 am 73. Jamie Irons:

OT to PJ

Thanks, you are very kind. That site is still very much in the early stages. Take a look, if you’re interested, at Times Ten Poets, a Berkeley (!) poets group of which I am a member (odd person out because of my insufferable war-mongering!

I haven’t encountered Turner yet; I’ll look out for him.

ed, you wrote:

Don’t forget about South Korea’s little financial move they pulled yesterday…

I missed that. Do you have a good link?

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:54 am 74. Knucklehead:

Jamie,

Never too old, old fellow. Hire an expert to take you up the hill and show you how to get down in one piece. Given how gravity mistreats we of a certain, ummm…, maturity it is very refreshing to put the old girl to work on our behalf for a change.

As for the X-country variety… I’ll never fathom why people willfully strap boards to their feet and go out and drag them through the snow. Curiouser and curiouser. Anecdotally, Better Twothirds once somehow guilt-tripped Brat the Younger into joining her for a bit of cross-country. Upon her return Brat the Younger pronounced cross-country the most vile, evil, hurtful excuse for a “sport” it was humanly possible to devise. She is not eager to repeat the experience. It is reassuring to me to know she’s got some bit of her dad in there somewhere.

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:02 pm 75. Jamie Irons:

Knucklehead:

As for the X-country variety… I’ll never fathom why people willfully strap boards to their feet and go out and drag them through the snow…

Well, I started out life as a Presbyterian!

That explains a lot about my odd choices…

But you give me courage; maybe next trip I’ll try to learn real skiing.

Jamie Irons

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:08 pm 76. heather:

Let’s get a grip here. Europe has had one hell of a wonderful run in world history.

Old Dad, Chartres and the rest of the great cathedrals were NOT built by oppressed peasants at a point of a sword – they were built with the wealth, enthusiasm, intellect and BELIEF of entire societies. All levels of that old Euro society participated in that project.

And Europe, old Europe, was no more or less bloody than any other human society – it is just that we know more about Europe’s history than we do of, for example, India’s. And the 20th Century was made a hell on earth by Europe and Russia, but much of its extent was enabled by the very great technological discoveries made during the ‘industrial revolution.’

And that “Industrial Revolution” has made it possible for great wonders for all of humanity, and I’m not going to list them because we all know of them.

And that is why the Death of Europe, its embrace of a truly primitive, slothful, soul destroying ethos is a Grand Tragedy.

As I have said before, I am going to Britain, and will wander through St Paul’s, and Durham, and Westminster Abbey, and Yorkminster – with the sure knowledge that their magnificence will shortly die – either blown up (like the Buddhist statues in Afghanistan), or plastered over with dead white paint, like the Ottoman mosques in the Balkans.

The best of Europe’s teachings, its legal and financial systems, its anger at slavery, its insistence that all people (men AND WOMEN)are Citizens equal before the law, its pity for the poor and sick … well, it lives on in the USA, Australia; and has been adopted in parts of India and Japan.

And that is what I truly hope survives past this century.

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:08 pm 77. Kyda Sylvester:

Ed & Sandy, better news today.

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:14 pm 78. Knucklehead:

Heather,

Thanks for the education. I always figured the cathedrals were built to maintain stable employment for guild members.

Feb 23, 2005 - 12:21 pm 79. Tom O'Bedlam:

Pretty impressive thread running here.

“Impressive?” It’s damn well awesome, in the literal meaning of the term. Even the trolls are a cut above average.

I may well print the whole thing out and save it for future reference.

Feb 23, 2005 - 1:27 pm 80. Sandy P:

Some think there’ll be at least $200 billion. possibly $300 billion repatriated due to our tax “amnesty.”

The drug companies are already looking into it.

It has to be used in America and not for divvies, corp salaries, etc.

Some countries will feel some hurt.

Feb 23, 2005 - 1:38 pm 81. Santa Fe:

The discussion on this thread has indeed been of the highest caliber. So much so that I’ve finally overcome my sloth and registered to post after lurking for over 6 months. I don’t know how frequently I’ll post, but thanks to all of you for taking the time to share your insights at Roger’s place. My father tipped me off to the site, and the quality and civility of the comments. Since he posts here every once in awhile, and reads the site daily, I’m loathe to contribute much because I’m certain to embarrass myself.

My own point of view on these matters has been formed in large part by my ongoing work in the field of Orthodox Christian publishing and communications. While it is frequently overlooked, the Orthodox Christian involvement in the cultural dynamics under discussion here is potentially significant.

Certainly, Putin’s public identity as a pious Orthodox Christian (recall all the pictures of him praying in Russian churches during the Beslan attacks) – regardless of what President Bush believes he “saw in his soul”, and what the man’s true inner beliefs are – will in part drive the choices made in Putin’s Russia. And the Russian Orthodox diaspora, most of which happily embraces Western political and economic freedoms, constitutes a potentially influential counterbalance to resurgent socialism. The Russians, like any other nation, want to preserve and strengthen their influence. Despite playing footsie with Iran, they shouldn’t be ruled out as potentially long-term allies just yet.

Also, the Orthodox Christian influence on Lebanon will have a lot of impact on the way developments in that country play out. There is a very wealthy, very influential, and freedom-loving Lebanese-American Orthodox Christian diaspora that is quite involved with the events and leaders of today’s Lebanon. However, the politics are complex in part because the spiritual leader of these Orthodox Christians in both Lebanon and America is the Patriarch of Antioch, who has for centuries been based in Damascus, Syria.

And for a final example of how the Orthodox keep cropping up, there are some very interesting developments playing out regarding the Orthodox Church in China. China historically had a small but strong Orthodox presence, built by Russian missionaries. St. John Maximovitch, a much-loved Orthodox saint of the 20th century, was the bishop of Shanghai before moving to America. Orthodoxy has been repressed by the Chinese communists, with churches turned in to museums and such, but there is a movement under way – led in large part by monks from America and lay ethnic Chinese Orthodox – to see a revival happen. Recent meetings with the Chinese government, which currently forbids ethnic Chinese from becoming priests, seem that they might bear some fruit.

In each of these cases, you have a small but strong Christian population in the West which can potentially have a great impact on the events taking place back in the “old country”.

So, that’s my 2 cents. What makes this site so fascinating is seeing so many different perspectives come together. Thanks again to all for your contribution.

Feb 23, 2005 - 3:03 pm 82. someone:

A lot of commentary here seems stuck on just the sort of thing Steyn is looking to kill: what Norman Davies called the “Allied View of History”. That France, Germany, and their western neighbors are stuck in infantile impotence doesn’t speak to the formerly communist regimes to the east. These too are handicapped by post-communist birthrates (I believe all are substantially below replacement), but unlike Old Europe these rates actually seem to be increasing. Plus they’re embracing the market, actually helping us abroad, etc. Will there be a “New Europe” born on this soil? Perhaps, if Chiraq fails to strangle it early.

Also — can we please have a moratorium (among non-trolls, anyway) on the whole “America will be eclipsed” stuff that doomsayers like trotting out every few years? It never happens (and won’t… until maybe we have space colonies), but discussions encourage self-pity. Bah.

Anyway, anyone thinking seriously about the future of the Pacific (and I do think the center of world gravity will shift there) has to start with this. Japan, of course, is in demographic hell, though it may work out — though Korea will loom large. China’s baby thing is going to hurt — but so will India’s male child preference. And perhaps it’s time to bet on Vietnam… Meanwhile,

By the UNPD’s medium variant projections, the United States is envisioned to grow from 285 million in 2000 to 358 million in 2025. In absolute terms, this would be by far the greatest increase projected for any industrialized society; in relative terms, this projected 26 percent increment would almost exactly match the proportional growth of the Asia/Eurasia region as a whole. [T]he U.S. population growth rate [...] would in this scenario actually be higher than that of Indonesia, Thailand, or virtually any country in East Asia, China included. [...] By 2025, the U.S. population would be more youthful, and aging more slowly, than that of China or any of todayís “tigers.”

Feb 23, 2005 - 4:31 pm 83. Knucklehead:

This has been a interesting discussion with some new perspectives and, at least to me, new information put into play.

If anyone else would care to go along (and assuming Roger doesn’t object to his eTavern being used for such purposes), I’d like to suggest a path for further discussion. Something along the lines of the threats and their types that the world really faces over the next few decades. Let’s play CIA (hopefully we’re a bit more clever than they are). By threat I mean real danger for either very serious war (the likes of either of the 20th century world wars) or very serious economic depression (the likes of the Great Depression of the ’30s).

For example, what threats are there to the United States and what threats does the US represent to others. I’ll roll first since it was my silly idea.

I do not believe the US labors under any threat of military conquest. We are, as far as I can tell, essentially non-invadeable, never mind conquerable, in a military sense. Neither Mexico nor Canada can threaten us militarily and no nation or even group of nations can muster the logistics and forces to cross one or both oceans or come down upon us through the hinterlands of Canada or up at us through Mexico.

We are potentially threatened by nuclear powers (and potentially by other forms of WMD – see some of the asian-avian flus floating around, smallpox, etc., but the threat is destruction, not invasion. I believe that, for the foreseeable future our air force and navy are sufficient to protect us from debilitating military attack to our “shipping lanes” – we can’t be blockaded or at least there’s no serious risk of that.

So, it seems to me, the threats we labor under are potential destruction (sufficiently massive will do, it needn’t be total), economic (collapse through some form of economic attack), and cultural (Mexican political reconquista, resurgent secessionism or somesuch).

Presumably there needs to be some legitimate potential for gain or we would have to represent an obstacle to gain that cannot be worked around and, therefore, must be removed. Or there would need to be enormous fear that we would destroy those who feel threatened in some fashion. Saddam himself may have the only political figure on the planet looney enough to have tried to wipe us out just for the sheer, sick satisfaction of it.

Even OBL himself doesn’t want us destroyed just for a whim – we represent the obstacle preventing the second coming of the caliphate and the gain of heaven by killing the infidel representatives of the Great Satan. Or maybe he just wanted a really big, gojillion dollar extortion racket to call his very own.

I’d put the mullahs of Iran into something similar to the OBL category. Rather than the second coming of the caliphate or desire for conquest on their part I’d say they’d be satisfied with the destruction of Israel and its Jews. They might believe it would be necessary to destroy us to accomplish that or to prevent their own destruction once they accomplished that. But I doubt the mullahs salivate over the thought of Andalusia or laying siege to Vienna.

What threats do we represent (not in their fevered imaginations but in reality) to others. Obviously we represent a threat of nuclear destruction to most anybody in the same way other nuclear powers represent that threat to us. No sane observer, however, could seriously imagine that the US represents some real threat of imperial world conquest. We may look preposterously militaristic to the average Euro but we don’t have, nor are we building, an imperial war machine with which to conquer and occupy the world or even a goodly protion of it. We have an affluent and aging population – those are not typically attributes conducive to building the sorts of militaries that conquer huge empires.

So presumably grown up countries like the Euros, Russia, Japan, China, etc. do not legitimately feel threatened by us militarily. We aren’t about to start bombing them or shipping the Marines to their capital cities.

What threat do we represent to others economically? With the possible exception of the Soviet Union there is no country I am aware of that can claim the US set out to destroy it economically. We compete, for sure, which may thwart others economic schemes and dreams to varying degrees, but economic destruction of rivals is not something the US has demonstrated any propensity to engage in. There might be some Pakistanis who assume they’d be the Switzerland of Asia if only the Jews and their American lackeys didn’t control everything but that’s not rational (not even for a German).

As for the cultural threats, the fact that an awful lot of people around the world might want whiskey and sexy doesn’t mean its our fault. If your kids want to wear jeans and play video games, take it up with them, not us. I discount the cultural threat we might represent to any nation or people who don’t support terrorists or engage in terror. For those which do, yeah, we represent a big threat to their nation, economy, and culture.

What about Russia? China? Japan? India? Europe?

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:00 pm 84. Knucklehead:

Someone,

I’m not yet convinced that the new version of the Population Bomb is worthy of the gnashing of teeth that its getting lately.

Clearly it represents some dangers and the potential for economic and social problems. But how dangerous is an aging and numerically stagnant or even slightly shrinking population? Populations are aging in the industrialized world – that seems obvious at least from the studies that get pointed to here and elsewhere.

Does it really represent a huge problem for Japan, for example? Part of what is causing this trend, in addition to declining birthrates, is longevity. And not only are people living longer but they are typically healthier to older ages. If we toss out the conventional wisdom that everyone must “retire” or is “economically useless” by age 65, how big a problem is an aging population?

And how big a problem for Japan, the world’s leader in automation and robotics, is a net population decline?

Where is it written that just because there are no examples of economic growth with a declining population that it is impossible to have growth in the face of population decline? Are there some examples, free of the effects of massive warfare or pestilence or famine, of economic activity during periods of population decline?

And how important is “growth” if population is declining? Does, using Japan again as an example, an affluent but declining population really require a growing economy? If the Japanese are happy with their level of affluence then why is growth required, especially if social and economic impact is offset by social adjustments (reorganizing family units, for example) and “productivity” gains rather than growth?

If what we’re hearing about the Russian population situation is accurate I speculate that demographics may make Russia a very real danger to herself and others. If China really does have 117 males for each 100 females she may also one day represent a very serious problem to herself and others. It is entirely possible that the Muslim world has dangerous demographics also.

But I’m not convinced that most of the developed world is as threatened by these demographic trends as it might seem at first blush. Much of this strikes me as stuff a reasonably healthy society can adapt its way out of.

And notfuhnuttin’ but Mother Nature, IIRC, has a propensity to adjust populations to suit needs. When there’s too many raccoons and opossums suddenly there ain’t so many raccoons and opossums no more (she’s falling down on the job with these danged white-tailed deer these days, but maybe she has a plan I ain’t privy too).

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:22 pm 85. Sandy P:

–Neither Mexico nor Canada can threaten us militarily and no nation or even group of nations can muster the logistics and forces to cross one or both oceans or come down upon us through the hinterlands of Canada or up at us through Mexico. —

They can vote to secede, especially considering they’re supposed to consider Mexico’s needs when voting in America.

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:47 pm 86. Sandy P:

And I still cannot recommend EU Referendum highly enough.

If this is high quality, wait until we start discussing socialized medicine again.

I’ve been saving articles.

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:48 pm 87. Sandy P:

Did Putin/Russia/Orthodox/Istanbul appear in a comment at Roger’s place or Rantburg?

Something about Putin possibly having an eye on Turkey?????

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:53 pm 88. Sandy P:

Strike the 5:47 P comment, that’s what I get for not reading far enough.

DOH!

Feb 23, 2005 - 5:54 pm 89. lindenen:

“China’s baby thing is going to hurt — but so will India’s male child preference.”

someone, I recently read there might be another cause for the gender imbalance in Asia: Hepatitus B Virus.

“In 1990 my Harvard colleague Amartya Sen caused a stir by observing…that excess female mortality in China, India, and other Asian countries meant that there were 100 million women fewer in the world than there should be. The presumption was that the excess mortality came from discrimination against women by men and governments…[this] shockingly large number became a symbol of discrimination against women in developing countries. Many people think the reason is abortion and the killing of newborn girls. But new research suggests another reason. Harvard economist Emily Oster, in her PhD thesis “Hepatitis B and the Case of the Missing Women” suggests that biology explains a good deal of the missing-women puzzle…

Oster argues that this calculation overlooked something crucial — unusually high male-female birth ratios in Asia years before abortion became widespread…Oster sees the high incidence of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) as a major culprit. There is much evidence that parents infected by HBV are more likely to have male children.”

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:19 pm 90. Old Dad:

Heather:

Must disagree with your characterization of medieval Europe. These societies were brutal police states, centered on the authority of the feudal lord.

I will grant you, though, that mcuh of the magnificence of the Gothic cathedrals grew from magnificent talent and deep faith. No doubt, Rome had a an extremely powerful and in many cases beneficent grip on her people. But let’s not be naive. Faith was often enforced at the end of a rope, or on a pile of fags.

I’ll admit that much of the brilliance of Chartes resulted from the devotion of the faithful, but I maintain that Feudal system that made it possible depended on brutal tactics.

Just a thought. Why no modern day Chartres? Might it be that modern democracies and their capitalist markets won’t suppport such monumental adventures, and that the modern fascists lack the cultural horse power?

Feb 23, 2005 - 6:36 pm 91. truepeers:

Hylas, yama-arashi, someone,

Hylas, thanks for the links. I wonder if Kaplan is right. It seems to me that if pagan attitudes traditionally rule in foreign affairs, Bush brings an unusually Christian counterweight to his present policies. Perhaps in the long run, the Judeo-Christian sensibilities are winning over global opinion, even if we don’t identify them as J-C. And thus they become more important with time to one’s policy calculus. Success in war, after all, has a very important moral element.

yama-arashi, thanks for the kind words. Trapped in the Japan as island meme, I forgot all about the Japanese influence on today’s child and youth culture. Hello Kitty, anime, etc. Were you thinking along these lines, or referring more to traditional high and populuar culture in referring to Japanese influence?

someone, thanks for the link. I share your confidence in the US future. What is missing from consideration in the raw demographic figures is any consideration of what it takes to produce or reproduce a worker for the human-capital intensive jobs on which future national power will rely. If an American couple can reproduce two Americans, how many Chinese or Indian couples does it presently take to produce one American or knowledge worker equivalent? Many fewer if they immigrate to America where they don’t have to build the educational instiutions, etc., from scratch. In any case, it will be interesting to see what kind of America emerges in 30 years as the red state fertility outweighs the blue. I read of one study somewhere where it was claimed the US would be majority Mormon in the not too distant future (I wonder if that is taking into account immigration from Mormons worldwide…)

Feb 23, 2005 - 7:36 pm 92. thibaud:

Re. ranking the major threats to the US, I’d vote for

1) a global pandemic such as Avian flu and

2) an economic perfect storm in which the Asian central banks dump their treasuries + Saudi oil refineries are blown up by AQ + Venezuela, Russia and others decide to cut back on oil deliveries to the US.

I know zip about pandemics, but I do know a bit about global markets, and I can say that the risk of #2 is very significant. Were it to happen, interest rates would soar, mortgage foreclosures would rise, real estate markets would tank, and consumer spending would also plummet. We would be back to low growth, increased unemployment and also increased inflation for those consumer goods made in Asia that could not be replaced quickly with a revived domestic production sector– TVs and other electronics, for ex.

How does this relate to Europe? Clearly the more anti-American Euros would love nothing better than to have the euro replace the dollar as the world’s, more importantly, China-Korea-Japan’s, reserve currency. Which means that at the first sight of a spark, the Euros will be ready to lend a gasoline can to the crisis.

The point here is that Europe does indeed have very significant power that should put us on guard. However the power is not that of the strong but that of the weak–not affirmativeor transformational (e.g. the ability to transform the politics of the middle east) so much as negative, blocking, thwarting, creating mischief. Which means the most dangerous axis imaginable for the US is a (French-inspired) EU-China axis.

Impossible, due to culture clash? Of course it’s possible. Interests, not culture, dictate foreign policy. Especially when interests are driven by Airbus and Siemens and the Galileo system and Alcatel and VW….

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:30 pm 93. thibaud:

Jamie Irons,

Bloom’s chapter on Cervantes in The Western Canon is one of my favorites. If there is such a thing as the West, then Bloom’s essays on Shakespeare, Cervantes and Montaigne/Moliere capture its essence.

What course did you take from Bloom at Yale? In another life I was a fanatic devotee of his reading of Milton and Blake. But that was another country.

and besides, the bitch is dead

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:49 pm 94. thibaud:

Note that Cervantes and Montaigne, masters of irony and champions of the oddball, of the idiosyncratic voice, were intensely proud of their military service to their respective kings. Contemporary Europe has all their irony and anti-heroism but none of their valor or fighting spirit.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:52 pm 95. someone:

thibaud: A downturn in the US economy would crush the European one. They depend heavily on exports, which is one reason the strong Euro is actually their problem. They’re also, of course, much more dependent on oil imports — a hit on ME production is, again, substantially their problem.

There may well be some long-term reserve currency strategy in Eurocrat thinking, but it doesn’t involve setting off a crisis that would blow themselves up.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:03 pm 96. thibaud:

Germany’s heavily dependent on exports to the US. France and most of the remainder of Europe are not. Note also that the euro has already risen >30% vs the dollar in the last 18 months and in the eyes of most experts could go significantly higher.

The point is not strength– exchange rates have zip to do with underlying growth rates– but insulation against an oil shock. If OPEC + Russia send the oil price 20% higher, but the dollar depreciates by 20% vs the euro, then the direct effect on the eurozone of this spike is nil. Of course Germany would be slammed by a US collapse, but the Germans don’t set EU monetary policy. France does.

Feb 23, 2005 - 9:40 pm 97. Kyda Sylvester:

I finally had the opportunity to read this entire thread. Thank you one and all.

Feb 23, 2005 - 11:27 pm 98. jerry:

Thibaud:

Once again I have to take issue with your position. If the US economy were to collapse in the manner you described the international economic repercussions would be on the order of the Great Depression. Saying that “yeah Germany would have a problem” and dismissing it with a cavalier only Germany is heavily dependent on Exports to the US shows an ignorance of how the world economy works. Here is news for you. If Germany tanks, Europe tanks. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe.

Secondly, if the US economy tanks, then so do all the major Asian economies. If you don’t think that would have a major impact on Europe, then I don’t know what you’re smoking.

The US economy has born the burden of propping up the world economy since the early 1990’s. This is the sole reason for our trade imbalance. We have grown at rate of 3-4% for most of the last 15 years. Europe and Japan have been basically static, although Japan has been showing signs of life lately. This growth gap has caused our imports to rise faster then our exports. The dollar surplus depresses the value of the dollar as it is supposed to. There are two ways to solve this imbalance. Help the world grow faster or adopt the kind of economic measures that create little or no growth and high unemployment. The Democratic Party solution is to become more like Europe [because high levels of dependency go with high unemployment] while the Republicans would like the rest of the world to cut taxes and promote growth. Something has to give to restore balance.

Feb 24, 2005 - 5:03 am 99. thibaud:

Jerry – I don’t need the lesson in economics, thanks.

My point, again, concerns France’s behavior and strategy more than Germany’s. You ignore the fact that international trade continues to represent a very small part of France’s economy– IIRC it used to be only 8-9% of French GDP in the late 1990s and is hardly more than that today, if it is indeed higher.

It’s France that has a lock on the ECB and its policy, and the French would probably calculate that the effects of a selloff of US treasuries by Asian central bankers would present more opportunity than harm to their strategy of seeking to knock the US off its perch. The danger that I’ve outlined is so real that the world’s preeminent hedge fund and bond fund managers (Bill Gross of PIMCO, eg) are tailoring their investment strategies accordingly. The money guys are not swayed by sentiment. We should not be, either.

Feb 24, 2005 - 6:19 am 100. Knucklehead:

I’m no international economist or currency trading expert but I do fathom the basics of stop-loss and buy low, sell high.

If the foreign investors in US debt believe that the dollar will go substantially lower it seems to me they’d want to cut their losses and get out. On the other hand, if they believe it is a temporary situation then selling dollars to buy euros would be a case of sell low, buy high.

That the US economy is growing and the EU economy is a bit stagnant it seems to me would weigh in against selling low and buying high – one might expect the dollar to rebound against the euro. And if, as others have made the case for, major selling of dollars would have some very real an negative impact on the dollar which would, in turn, have real and negative impact on the growth of Asian economies (Japan, China, SK, India) would not seem to be a wise move if done for some sort of “punative” or “economic war making” purposes.

Just the recent “threat” of this sent the dollar down somewhat dramatically which means they’d be losing value hand over fist while they got out. I just don’t see this as particularly bright investement practice. It seems more likely they’d hedge and prop and try to avoid any major collapse of the dollar while they reduced their positions.

I’m just speculating here but doesn’t the proposed SSN reform, such as it is, bear at least a minor resemblence to a dollar buyback plan?

Destroying the Saudi oil-fields (or any other major disruption to the oil supply) would almost certainly tank most modern economies. The US, while certainly not in a good position is better positioned in this respect than Europe. I don’t see Europe encouraging this sort of “attack” on the US. If Russia, on the other hand, is completely in the tank anyway, and apparently has some real difficulties bringing their petro to market and/or increasing production, a major price increase might suit them just dandy. How the Chinese would react to such a thing is anyone’s guess.

Feb 24, 2005 - 6:27 am 101. thibaud:

One more point: the trigger here resides with the Asian central bankers, not the Europeans. If the Koreans and Chinese and Japanese decide to sell off much of their massive trasury holdings, the Europeans will not be able to stop them. I think it reasonable to expect the French to seek to exploit this event for their own benefit rather than to help out the US.

Feb 24, 2005 - 6:34 am 102. jerry:

Thibaud:

You have yet to explain what France has to gain by your proposed “rule or ruin” strategy. The US will still fair better then Europe [including France] or Asia in a global depression. Furthermore, since France’s goal is an EU controlled by France, how would a global depression contribute to a unified Europe? Such a depression is more likely to fragment Europe then unite it. This would reduce French influence even more.

As an aside, perhaps France’s low level of foreign trade as a percentage of GDP is more of a reflection of their inablity to compete rather then economic health. France also has 10% employment and virtually no growth.

Feb 24, 2005 - 7:19 am 103. AlanC:

It’s been too many years since my schooling in international economics (I think there was something about dubloons and wampum) but in all these doomsday scenarios there seems to be one flaw.

There are very few people/countries capable of buying large amounts of US debt. If the Asians want to sell out, who’s going to buy? Yes, this would have an effect on our ability to place additional debt without raising interest rates, but, as Jerry has pointed out this is a globalized world.

This sort of reminds me of the stand-off scene in a movie where the hero is facing numerous small fry bad guys and the head bad-guy says “He can’t shoot all of us!” Then they all look at each other to see who wants to die so the others can live.

I doubt that anyone wants to take the risk that taking us on would entail just so France can rule the rubble.

Feb 24, 2005 - 8:00 am 104. Knucklehead:

AlanC,

That nasty ol’ supply and demand dragon rearing its head, heh? If those holding dollar denominated debt want to sell it off quickly and in larger quantities than there are obvious buyers for, they’re going to have to sell at a discount. If that happens it seems to me we should by it back. Why not buy back our own debt at a discount – isn’t that the same thing as debt reduction?

And if the funds realized from the selloff start chasing after more euro debt than is available for purchase, won’t they have to buy the euro debt at a premium?

What am I missing? It sounds an awful lot like my lifetime investment strategy – sell low, buy high.

Feb 24, 2005 - 9:13 am 105. someone:

Interesting reading on the foreign currency holdings issue.

Feb 24, 2005 - 9:22 am 106. AlanC:

Hey Knuck, sounds like we have the same investment advisor ;^)

You’re absolutely right that if they really want to unload and start discounting then it makes sense for us to buy it back.

Daniel Drezner, http://www.danieldrezner.com/blog/, has a great discussion on this and the various issues involved vis a vis export based economies and how we need each other. This is all still an outgrowth of the post WWII Bretton Woods deal.

Feb 24, 2005 - 11:12 am 107. Sandy P:

– (Bill Gross of PIMCO, eg)–

Isn’t PIMCO owned by the Germans and wasn’t he busted for sending out a memo to his clients a couple of years ago?

Feb 24, 2005 - 7:58 pm

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