24 Comments

1. Plainslow:

You are so right.

If they put as much effort in produceing oil, and selling it or using it to supply thier own people, as they do hideing WMD, they would be rich enough to build a non conventional military that would preclude any attack. And with the money they could help thier people have a better chance of living through these disaters.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:15 am 2. Knucklehead:

“like giving a loaded gun to a two-year old.”

It’s even worse than that, Roger. The two-year old would not use the gun for the purpose of extortion or murder, might never manage to take the gun off safe, and may never even accidentally pull the trigger. It’s much more like handing a loaded gun to a troubled, ranting teenager who has repeatedly threatened to do you harm. Having that much power in hand might lead the ranting, troubled teen to suddenly behave better, but one’s insurance company would prefer one not take that risk.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:15 am 3. FriarsTale:

It’s almost time to stop the old “American Hegemony” thing, too.

And the American consumption thing.

Have you seen that China now consumes more meat, steel, and coal than the US?

http://www.asiancanadian.net/2005/02/china-passes-us-as-worlds-biggest.html

Here’s a little Haiku

A Diverse Group

The Republicans

A Diverse Hegemony

Powell, Thomas, Rice

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:28 am 4. multispead:

Roger,

Don’t you mean primitive Mullahs/Regime, not the culture? The Persian Culture is very beautiful, dynamic, has made great and significant contributions to civilization. The Mullahs don’t represent Persian Culture in any way shape or form and in fact the Mullahs/Clerics/Islamists are a disease that Persian Culture, Poets and it’s people have always fought against.

Well said about the Europeans.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:34 am 5. Knucklehead:

FriarsTale,

I believe the article missed concrete. I’m waiting to hear from the folks who were complaining not four years ago that steel dumping on the US market was killing our steel factories – they even pushed through steel tarrifs. Are our steel factories now flush and making money exporting to China? If not, why not? Are our granaries emptying out as sales to China skyrocket? Will folks continue to complain about cheap, foreign imports of consumer durables or will they start to complain as the growing Chinese market draws those same cheap, consumer durables elsewhere or, better yet, will some enterprising Americans start building factories to meet the market needs of a nation where ~600 million people still live in Lincolnesque dirt-floor shacks?

And last, but not least, who is “Thomas”?

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:42 am 6. Roger:

Agreed about the regime/culture inaccuracy, multispeed. Will correct.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:42 am 7. Kyda Sylvester:

Slightly OT: Today is “Free Mojtaba & Arash Day” (Arash Sigarchi and Mojtaba Saminejad are the Iranian bloggers jailed for the offense of expressing their thoughts on the Internet). The Committee to Protect Bloggers has details.

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:48 am 8. Brown Line:

With all respect, Roger, let’s not get carried away. Yes, the mullahs are four-star whack-jobs; but are they worse than Stalin & Co.? The USSR had all of the primitivism and callous disregard for the needs of its citizens that one sees in Iran today, compounded by an appetite for murder and military aggression that far exceeded anything the mullahs have done. We lived with a nuclear-armed USSR for decades, and in the end saw it flung onto the ash-heap of history. We survived because we met the threat with strength: the Soviet leaders knew that we would take bloody vengeance if they dared to use nuclear weapons. For all the mullahs’ ullullations on the glories of martyrdom, I don’t see any of them strapping on dynamite belts; surely they must know that if they use the Bomb, they will have signed their own death warrants.

The ultimate solution, as in the USSR, is regime change. I’m no expert; I don’t know how to bring this about, though it seems to me that the situation in Iran, like in Eastern Europe or South Africa, has the potential to change peacefully and quickly. I’m reasonably certain, though, that a half-cocked military strike is not the way to bring this about.

Just my $0.02 worth …

Feb 22, 2005 - 10:55 am 9. Knucklehead:

Multispead,

How much of Persian culture has survived islamification? If the mullahs were finally thrown out and, after some reasonable time to heal from the the ravages of the Shah and then the mullahs, what would Iran be likely to become? How does Persian culture differ materially from current Iranian “culture”?

BTW, I asked those questions in all sincerity. Persia was a long time ago. We hear a lot (perhaps too much?) about the past glories and cultural contributions of Egypt, Mesopotamia, and Persia. I wonder if the current cultures of Egypt, Iraq, and Iran still carry sufficient remnants of those cultures to overcome the radicalizing influences of the mullahs and dictators.

Feb 22, 2005 - 11:05 am 10. Rick Ballard:

“a half-cocked military strike is not the way to bring this about.”

Boy, I sure agree with that. It’s going to take a well planned and executed air campaign backed with a good solid naval blockade lasting at least nine minths in order to effect the necessary changes. I belive that the initial target set numbers about 350 sites so we’ll probably have to ramp up Tomahawk production in order to maintain sufficient inventory.

Of course, there are thousands of people in the five sided building who have addressed more issues than anyone posting here can imagine, so I suppose we might leave the actual planning to them.

Or, we can wait for the “peaceful transition” in the manner for which the ME is so well noted.

Feb 22, 2005 - 11:14 am 11. Sandy P:

Yet we have people who insist it’s their right to live on the side of a mountain and have me the taxpayer pay for their house via my insurance every time it slides off….Matt Welch wrote a column on this awhile ago. Maybe there should be limits???

So, –I think it verges on the mentally ill that a culture so primitive that year after year it leaves its citizens unprotected from the same natural disasters, its countryside scattered with untold numbers of medieval villages without even a semblance of earthquake proofing,—

Is it a matter of degree or country?

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:09 pm 12. FriarsTale:

Knucklehead,

Why, Clarence Thomas, of course.

He may not directly contribute to the Republicans’ global hegemony (ha ha) but he is part of the Republican diversity.

Perhaps he will be more memorable if nominated to become Chief Justice. http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/12/05/judges.reid.frist/

In the meantime, I will take it as a sign of how far we have come in being a truly diverse society that the lone black jurist on the Supreme Court is not a household name.

Or is that just because the MSM doesn’t give him his due?

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:11 pm 13. multispead:

Knucklehead, great question:

The important thing about Iran is that Islamification really never worked in Iran. Although the regime that has been in power since ‘79 is xtremely fundamentalist and Islamic, the culture, blood and dreams which breathe through the overwhelming majority of Iranian is Persian culture. You know, we Iranians say Persian culture and Iranian culture. Persian we say more often because a lot of our beliefs, holidays, cultural practices, etc.. are derived from ancient Persia.

The only significant effect Arab conquests had on Iran was that Iran adopted it’s own form of Islam in a way to buffer and blunt the devastating effects of Arab invasions. But I can tell you that Iranians are rather secular people, especially within their homes (where they can’t get speak freely), and much of Persian/Iranian culture has revolved around keeping clerics in the mosques and out of politics.

The important thing for all of us to do is recognize the major difference between the clerical regime and the Iranian people. The regime for all practical purposes is relatively weak compared to the opposition it faces, especially internally (within Iran). Hopefully President Bush can send a clear message to Europe and others that the way of the future for Iran, the Middle East and Planet Earth is freedom – and no longer can we justify and support a status quo of supporting tyrants in exchange for “stability” and profits.

If the United States aggressively pursues freedom in Iran – change will happen rapidly (weeks to months). If US pursues a more vague policy approach and allows the rest of the world to continue appeasement, change will take longer to occur (years). All signs lead most to believe that the Bush Administration has finally started to pursue a long-awaited and aggressive freedom for Iranian people policy, which is good!

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:14 pm 14. WichitaBoy:

multispead,

Please tell me, exactly, what “aggressively” pursuing freedom in Iran by the United States amounts to.

I am very skeptical of the pseudo-war-drums being beaten.

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:26 pm 15. Knucklehead:

FriarsTale,

Don’t judge how far “we” have come wrt diversity by my question about Thomas “who”. After reading you answering post, however, I had to chuckle because it is completely obvious in retrospect but I failed to make the racial connection. I was thinking about “current administration” rather than “black”. I’ll take that as a positive sign of my own progress

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:31 pm 16. Knucklehead:

Multispead,

Your response is encouraging. Like Witchita I question what “aggressive” means, but if the mullahocracy is half as weak as you claim and the, that’s a good thing – to my way of thinking anyway (I’m sure the mullahs and those who profit under them disagree).

I’ve known very few Iranians so I have no way to generalize about them. One thing I suspect, however, is that (oddly enough given the deadly seriousness of the mullahs) Iranians are very quick to laugh. It could just be that I’ve encountered a non-representative sample, but I’d guess that Iranians have a very wide ranging sense of humor. Which had nothing to do with the topic.

Feb 22, 2005 - 12:41 pm 17. Terrye:

Roger:

The same thing could be said for China.

The same thing could be said for North Korea.

The same thing could be said for Russia.

The same thing could be said for Pakistan.

At least India seems to be trying.

All of these countries pursue weapons of mass destruction while their people do without the basic necessities.

And it seems that having access to great wealth does not change this dynamic. In fact if we look at the countries with the most natural resources often as not we see corruption and tyranny.

Feb 22, 2005 - 1:55 pm 18. AlanC:

Multispead,

In addition to Witchita’s question I’ve got another. You also wrote “…and allows the rest of the world to continue appeasement,…”

In all seriousness, if the rest of the world wants to continue appeasement, how do we disallow it?

This and the previous question seem to form a pattern that comes up all the time from people that don’t like our policy.

There seems to be an underlying assumption that everyone and everything is under the control of the omnipotent and omniscient US. Just cause we are the biggest and the best doesn’t make us perfrect nor does it make us God.

I’m not ragging on you here, but, if you make statements that assume our power is so great, it would be nice if you explained the details of how to pull this off.

Feb 22, 2005 - 1:58 pm 19. ed:

Hmmm.

1. Due to the horrors of the Iran-Iraq War the majority of Iranians today are under the age of 30. The benefit of this is that their entire life experience is with the oligarchy in Tehran. And from their vantage point they can see what an incurable mess it is. Clerics should mind the Word of God, and leave government to others.

2. The biggest since force for democracy in Iran, is Iraq. Once the violence level in Iraq is greatly reduced, we’ll see a massive influx of religious tourism from Iran. While the overt reason would be to visit the holy sites, I expect a LOT of people suddenly becoming very devout, any number of side trips would be very enjoyable.

Primarily this is because, for many Iranians, democracy is a theory. It’s somewhat the same for Iraqis, but at least they’ve recently had an election. For Iranians the only elections they’ve had were mostly all sham. Plus you can add in the generous serving of freedom of speech, freedom of thought. The ability and pleasure of being able to speak your mind. To read any book you want. To read any website you want.

It’s this freedom that will draw out many younger Iranians. It is this freedom that will instill a desire for more of the same, but in Iran their beloved homes. To enjoy oneself on vacation is one thing, but to give it all up when returning home is completely another. Then there’s the organizational aspect where various groups will be able to speak and organize freely in Iraq.

There are few things more corrosive to a repressive regime than freedom. Particularly a freedom just a short distance away where almost anyone can justify a pilgrimmage to.

3. China is a shell-game waiting for the last call. Sure there’s a lot of investment. Certainly many domestic steel companies are making money hand over fist. But there are fundamental flaws in the Chinese economy that MUST result in a declaration of war. Not necessarily to fight a war, but to eliminate the debt.

China currently has, at least according to official numbers, about $700 billion in bad debt. Not overall debt, bad and uncollectable debt. The banks are all government owned. Many of the companies in China are partially or wholly government owned. When a company, a cash cow for an elite politician or general, is running deeply in debt, a loan must be made from a bank. The government officials will not allow those companies that are offering them profit-skimming opportunities to fail.

But this sort of thing cannot continue indefinitely. The Chinese are between a rock and a hard place. Anything that might interrupt or slow economic growth cannot be allowed. If it does then the entire edifice might come crashing down and the Chinese economy would simply self-destruct. The amount of American debt held by China is roughly the same as the bad debt held by Chinese banks.

One way to deal with bad debt is to pay it off. Another way of dealing with it to is to kill off the creditor. And increasingly the creditor are Taiwanese banks who not only hold many Chinese notes, but also have huge cash reserves of their own.

Then there are the long term issues such as environmental destruction and the increasingly destructive gender demographic imbalance. Current in Ghangzou, again according to government figures, there are about 140 boys for every 100 girls in middle school. Right now there are an estimated 70 million Chinese men who are completely unmarriageable because their financial prospects aren’t good enough for the available women. I.e. there aren’t enough women to go around as it is. In twenty years there will very likely be about 200+ million such men in China.

This trend is also continuing to increase. Even though it it currently illegal to abort children based on gender. But the Chinese cultural imperatives demand sons and not daughters. So the process is accelerating. The 200+ million number might be understating the case by 50%.

Then there is the aging demographic. Half of all Chinese are above the age of 50. In a decade they’ll be 60. In two decades they’ll be 70. And there’s no support system. There will be 600 million elderly Chinese with no infrastructure available to care for them. This will either result in a massive die-off, of truly Biblical proportions, or an enormous amount of wealth will be needed to support them.

And afterwards there will be about 500 million Chinese men, and 300 million (maybe) Chinese women.

That one child per couple rule is certainly going to bite them.

Feb 22, 2005 - 9:22 pm 20. WichitaBoy:

Ed,

And afterwards there will be about 500 million Chinese men, and 300 million (maybe) Chinese women.

That one child per couple rule is certainly going to bite them.

Or, if you subscribe to the theory that wars are caused by surpluses of young males, it’s going to bit us. Big time bite.

Feb 23, 2005 - 8:57 am 21. ajf:

OK, this has just gotten silly. Multispead you’re kidding yourself. Most of the people currently in Iran are Arabs, they’ve been there for a 1000+ years, but that doesn’t make them Persian or give them any claim to Persian culture. Granted, they attempt to pass themselves off as Persians, but that is the way of islam, it’s parasitic.

Persians are Zoroastrian. Persian culture and tradition are Zoroastrian. Period.

There are only a few hundred thousand Persians left in the world – most living outside of the homeland – and the vast majority of us don’t care to have our heritage soiled by Arabs. Knock it off!

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:32 am 22. ed:

Hmmm.

“Or, if you subscribe to the theory that wars are caused by surpluses of young males, it’s going to bit us. Big time bite.”

Actually you can some of this dynamic at work near the North Korean border with China. There smugglers will help North Korean women get out of North Korea, but then they find themselves sold as wives to Chinese farmers. I think the going rate is around $250, which is at least 1-2 years income so women are already at a premium in some places in China.

Then there is the STD/HIV aspect. Right now workers live in huge single gender dormitories. There are few amenities, if any. Most are charged for every last bit of service. The workers try to save money so they go without. Without books, dining out, hot water, etc etc etc. But they do this so they can live for the Chinese New Year when everyone goes home for a few weeks. It’s at this time the Chinese workers are being paid.

The problem is that the number of available women in the rural villages is dropping rapidly due to gender imbalances. Then there’s the issue of many single women living in similar circumstances and working in factories. So you’ve got an odd situation where people must rely on arranged marriages simply because the opportunities for romance occur only once a year.

Now as the number of available women drop, the value of those remaining will skyrocket. There probably will continue to be some women who will act as prostitutes, but there will be far fewer of them. This means that each will be an even greater nexus for STD/HIV transmission. And married couples are even more prone to this sort of infection because married men are living away from their wives and families for a year at a time.

It’s potentially a real mess.

Feb 23, 2005 - 10:56 am 23. ardeshir:

ajf, you ‘re spouting nonsense that is quite entertaining, but it still remains nonsense. Arabs make up less than 3-2% of the population, and the vast majority of Iran’s population is Persian or part of a related Iranic sub-group (Kurds, Lurs, Bakhtiaris, etc..) The main spoken language is still Persian, and the main national holiday is Norooz, which goes back to the Achaemenians.

You seem to be also ignoring alltogether that the Arab invasion mostly took place in what is now Iraq, which was past of the Persian empire back then (Google up Ctesiphon, it’ll teach you something).

Are you some sort of bitter Parsi by any chance? Persia isn’t limited to just Zoroastrianism. You seem to be forgetting Judaism, Manicheism, Bahai’sm and many other faiths that have been firmly part of Iran’s history. Cultures change, evolve, adapt.

Good luck trying to convince 70 million Iranians that they’re just “confused Arabs”!

Feb 26, 2005 - 5:12 pm 24. ardeshir:

Roger, your condemnation of an entire culture as “primitive” based on the actions of an unpopular theocratic regime is a bit off-target. It is not uncommon for dictatorships to invest in weapons rather than in the population which, in their eyes, is cannon fodder at best or potential opponents at worse.

No one in their right mind would write off Germany’s culture based on the period of Nazi rule. Let’s not do that here, for the sake of coherence.

Feb 26, 2005 - 5:18 pm

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