Seeker Blog has as its epigraph this witty quote from Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Today it also has a very interesting post… taking off from George Friedman’s book America’s Secret War… about the real US strategy in the Middle East. Worth a look.
Roger L. Simon
Blacklisting Myself Memoir of a Hollywood Apostate in the Age of Terror
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17 Comments
1. yama-arashi:Makes sense to me. I think a good part of the American public also gets it. Viscerally perhaps. But there’s nothing wrong with that. The sense part of good common sense. That’s why the WMD “lie” has never been that much of a problem for the administration. The left likes to think this is because supporters of the war in Iraq are shallow and easily duped. Which is how people who get it and don’t need to talk incessently about getting it might very well seem to their opposites.
Mar 6, 2005 - 8:14 am 2. olrtex:Thanks for referring us to Seeker Blog. Thanks even more for keeping on top of this stuff-it’s hard for the rest of us to do. Please also keep on top of the Italian journalist story. The MSM will never get that story right, no matter what “right” is. Maybe the better bloggers can do a better job.
Mar 6, 2005 - 9:38 am 3. Sandy P:–…an artefact of Jimmy CarterĂs decision to use Saudi Arabian money and Pakistani expertise to create a guerrilla army that could harass the Soviets then occupying Afghanistan.–
Once again, thank you peanut.
Mar 6, 2005 - 10:12 am 4. Sandy P:–Indeed, if there was a global mobilization of Muslims, would anyone dare to be so impudent and act so cruelly towards the spiritual offspring of the Messenger of Allah?–
Americans have always been impudent.
Mar 6, 2005 - 10:21 am 5. Carol_Herman:Ah, those ellusive photons. Once released from the nucleus, are so light; (yup, given two meanings, photons are light), that they can travel backwards in time. I think that’s what Niels Bohr meant. And, Feynman meant. When he said “to understand this stuff is not to get it.” What did I just say? Could be you’re not in the future, anymore?
Also, a story told by Mlodinow, who was a fellow at Caltech in 1981, in his delightful rendering of his experience: FEYNMAN’S RAINBOW, talks about John Schwartz, a true believer in String Theory, when Feynman was a doubter of same. So there ya go. Everybody’s in the hallway. And, Feynman calls out to John, “What dimention are you in today, Schwartz?”
We’re all only visitors on this planet, ya know. And, some of these maps to our realities hold funny stories.
Mar 6, 2005 - 10:38 am 6. TigerHawk:I put up a comment over at Seeker — perhaps it is worthy of reproduction here:
I, too, think that George Friedman is an enormously creative thinker, and I agree with much of what he writes. That having been said, he is not a supporter of Bush’s strategy to “drain the swamp” through democratization. He believes that it cannot succeed, and that America will be more successful achieving its ends through the coercion of the existing governments. In this I both think and hope that he is wrong.
FWIW, I put up a post a couple of months ago that outlined Friedman’s misgivings about the democratization project, including the elections in Iraq. That post went up before the elections at the end of January. I have not seen whether Friedman has revised his view since then.
Mar 6, 2005 - 12:12 pm 7. yama-arashi:Thanks for the lesson TigerHawk. I didn’t get that impression of Friedman when I read the post over there (then again I am not a particularly good reader). Definitely have to read the book. But I do wish all the Western elites would get over the idea that democracy is such a difficult thing to achieve in traditional societies, or in cultures that are not so-called Western. Democracy is certainly less of a big deal, and more kind on tradition (just ask the Marsh Arabs, or the Amish for that matter), than modern fascism and communism (also of the West). I hate it when those on the far-left and far-right and so many in between argue either explicitly or implicitly that Hussein’s Iraq or communist China are somehow a continuance of thousands of years of tradition, natural offsprings (all things being equal), and democracy will be some kind of impossible, unnatural, imposition. Hussein was a modern fascist schooled by Stalin. Would Hammarabi be pleased? Or Cyrus (oops, maybe I shouldn’t use this as an example)? What’s more alien to Chinese traditions than ideology based on Europe’s Marx. If memory serves me the cultural revolution accomplished……Democracy with a healthy dose of checks and balances and all the other things that word has come to encompass is a piece of cake compared to the other two modern alternatives, and more respectful of tradition (included religous), and it isn’t like anyone can set the clock back. We are all modern. For good and bad.
Mar 6, 2005 - 1:49 pm 8. Knucklehead:Roger,
I want to join the Thank You Chorus for pointing to that article and blog. Very interesting, very.
TigerHawk,
An additional Thank You for your blog and analysis. I’m pretty sure it was Roger who pointed me there also.
Carol_Herman,
I am very fond of the work “Ginny” does at ChicagoBoyz.net. I’m beginning to thing you are the “Ginny” here at Roger’s Place. Esoteric and erudite (which equates to enjoyable for me ;>). Yet another Thank You due, this time to you.
Mar 6, 2005 - 2:01 pm 9. Knucklehead:Yami,
I missed a thank you!
Excellent!
Mar 6, 2005 - 2:07 pm 10. Knucklehead:Yami,
I missed a thank you!
Excellent!
Mar 6, 2005 - 2:08 pm 11. Knucklehead:I hate double posts. Oh well, that’s what happens when one gets too pushy.
Mar 6, 2005 - 2:08 pm 12. yama-arashi:Knuck,
Thanks for the edit. “Moonbats, Wingnuts, and Cluepaupers,” indeed.
Mar 6, 2005 - 2:15 pm 13. yama-arashi:P.S. I hope no one takes the Cyrus reference in the wrong way. Cyrus certainly would be as harsh a critic of Hussein as anyone else. Hussein being immeasureably worse than even Nabonidus. For those of you still playful enough to believe in this kind of thing, Marduk undoubtedly has been forced to make an old decision once again. The “oops, maybe I shouldn’t use this as an example,” was more for my self-amusement, and was with regards to a very small, unimportant point. Kind of rude actually. Using Roger’s bandwidth for personal amusement. I’ll be sure to hit the tip jar. As others should as well.
Mar 6, 2005 - 3:38 pm 14. Am I A Pundit Now?:Uh, are you sure that quote is from Nils Bohr? Sounds more like Yogi Berra, if you ask me.
Mar 7, 2005 - 10:46 am 15. Seeker:Roger,
Thanks heaps, mate! Lots of thoughtful, informed commentators have made it over to SeekerBlog.
The primary purpose of SeekerBlog is weed out the false – to find superior, objective sources. E.g., this week due to informed reader comment we discovered that Khidhir Hamza, aka "Saddam’s Bombmaker" is very likely a fraud:
The oversight and insight of readers enables the truth-fishing.
Cheers, Steve D.
Mar 8, 2005 - 4:05 pm 16. Seeker:Uh, are you sure that quote is from Nils Bohr?
For sure, mate! See The Quotations Page I think I first encountered that quote in a talk by Richard Feynman.
What is the Yogi Bera quote you were thinking of?
Cheers, Steve D.
Mar 8, 2005 - 4:12 pm 17. Seeker:To yama-arashi,
Thanks for the kind words. TigerHawk’s Jan 5 post on Friedman’s rather negative outlook on Iraqi democracy got me motivated to attempt a rebuttal in SeekerBlog Bets Contra to Stratfor on "Facing Realities in Iraq".
I argue basically that the Iraqis can defeat what I call the Infiltration Factor by means of "The Chain of Trust". I find it surprising that Friedman believes the Iraqis aren’t clever enough to weed out the traitors by working out-and-down from trusted leadership (Army, Police, Judiciary,…).
Any criticisms much appreciated!
Cheers, Steve D.
Mar 8, 2005 - 4:27 pm