14 Comments

1. triticale:

Bush did not properly plan for the peace and there weren’t enough troops to guard the missiles, and, uh, oh never mind…

Mar 18, 2005 - 4:43 am 2. JBR:

To quote Michael Ledeen, “faster please.”

Mar 18, 2005 - 5:35 am 3. ak47pundit:

Any bets that Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program will produce warheads that will fit these missiles?

Not good. Not good at all.

Mar 18, 2005 - 6:14 am 4. Oyster:

Being that it was 2001, consider the oligarches who were running the show at the time. It’s just as indicative of what Russia is *still* doing these days. Thankfully the Ukrainians fought to get out from under all that crap.

Mar 18, 2005 - 6:42 am 5. nickpicker:

Uhm, what makes you guys believe that Yushchenko would not approve of that deal if he were PM in 2001? Because he used to wear an orange scarf?

I remember a time when Putin was labelled a pro-Western reformer, too.

Mar 18, 2005 - 7:25 am 6. asher:

Slightly O/T, but is anyone else having trouble logging in to the new Stratfor page?

I hope the current US/Israeli missile defense exercise runs smoothly. And that they never have to play the real thing.

Mar 18, 2005 - 8:14 am 7. nittypig:

“Uhm, what makes you guys believe that Yushchenko would not approve of that deal if he were PM in 2001? Because he used to wear an orange scarf?”

Um, Yushenko WAS Prime Minister of Ukraine in 2001. He left office in April of that year. No idea if the sale was unde rhis watch or not, but if it closed in 2001 it’s hard to believe that the discussions didn’t start until after April.

Mar 18, 2005 - 9:27 am 8. Carol_Herman:

Plus, Arik Sharon has been invited by Bush, to visit him at his Crawford ranch on April 12th.

It’s also worth remembering that in Israel, the extremists on the right can tear down Arik’s government because they have no shame. And, all the harms that can befall the Jewish State (like Rabin’s assassination), can come from people who pray a lot over there.

Funny thing is I’m much less worried about the missiles. They’re imported. They’re paid for by jerks with way too much money; but without the expertise. If ya get what I mean.

And, Russia has been playing Mideast politics forever. You didn’t know when Israel went to its wars that the Russians were supplying the arabs?

You didn’t know that the arabs manage to fight each other, too? With all the technolgy they buy from russia, which tends to fall apart. Most of the stuff that’s russian built is junk.

As to the Ukraine, lots of luck to those Cossacks. But they are who they are. Good line about the “orange scarves!”

Mar 18, 2005 - 9:44 am 9. Patrick S Lasswell:

I wonder what the failure rate is for those missiles? Even if nobody is shooting at a missile, there is a certain failure rate due to the complexity of the system and the condition of the storage they are kept in. Since missiles generally sit on the shelf 99.999% of their existence, if you are not regularly using them, they tend to pick up failures that are literally impossible to detect.

Now, 18 missiles is a good start on a test program, but not as much of a strategic deterrance as one might like. Having your first strike turn into a succession of small radioactive craters across the desert where your cruise missiles augered in is a real risk. For that matter, having your launch point turn into a toxic waste site due to a diode that failed at full thrust is not unlikely. Given that the CIA and MI6 have shown some capability recently at quietly tipping despotic schemes off the rails, it is possible that there could be some problems with the weapons delivered to Iran…

Mar 18, 2005 - 10:35 am 10. Terrye:

I remember hearing years ago that some stuff had gone “missing” in the Ukraine. This must be it.

I am not sure if the Ukranian government did this or the Russians or someone acting independently. One of the fears in the 90’s was that some renegade military people would do something just like this.

Took their sweet time telling the world about it didn’t they?

Mar 18, 2005 - 11:18 am 11. Jim in Texas:

The Kh-55s (NATO codename “AS-15 Kent”) is an air launched cruise missile with a range of approx. 1,500 miles. Itís a low launch, low flying weapon with inertial guidance as opposed to GPS.

Itís subsonic so the Israeli formidable anti-aircraft weapons systems would be more than a match for it, as long as it doesnít fly too low.

The technology is late 70ís, early 80ís and I donít think there could have been any significant retrofitting that would enhance its stealth ability.

The Iranians would be more than foolish if they put their nuclear eggs (egg?) in this basket.

Mar 18, 2005 - 11:35 am 12. WichitaBoy:

The big picture here is that, in the long run, there is no technology in the world which cannot be copied by or sold to brutal dictatorships. People living in Iran etc. are just as intelligent as we are and have full access to the same American and Russian textbooks we use. It’s just a matter of time. Secrets don’t remain secret forever.

Under these circumstances, what is our best policy for self-defense? What is Israel’s?

Wolfowitz seems to be one of the few people who have thought this through.

Mar 18, 2005 - 12:19 pm 13. Buddy Larsen:

I still do not understand why in eight years nobody was able to get it thru Bill Clinton’s head that WE needed to be buying as much of that stuff as possible ASAP the So-broke-oviets put it on the black market. Maybe we shoulda been telling Monica or Al.

Mar 18, 2005 - 11:12 pm 14. Buddy Larsen:

Witchita, on that Wolfowitz depth about to plumb the shallows of the World Bank, Wretchard has a couple of excellent backgrounders up. Of the World Bank he inverts Winston Churchill’s salute to the Battle of Britain RAF, and says “Never in the history of human effort has so little been done with so much”. Makes ya wonder what a Wolfowitz-quality staff will do. A safe bet is, it won’t involve the staus quo.

Mar 18, 2005 - 11:33 pm

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