21 Comments

1. Charlie (Colorado):

From your keys to God’s ears.

Mar 26, 2005 - 10:41 am 2. richard mcenroe:

The “legitimacy” of the current Chinese government’s claim to Taiwan is one of the world’s longest-running Great Lies. The Red Chinese took the Chinese mainlain by force of arms, but they never set one foot on Formosa.

Mar 26, 2005 - 10:56 am 3. Eric Scheie:

Give people too much freedom, and look what happens!

What’s that slogan?

“Socialism or death”?

Mar 26, 2005 - 11:16 am 4. Will Franklin:

Looks like Taiwan is following “the blueprint.”

More:

http://www.willisms.com/archives/2005/03/following_the_b.html

Mar 26, 2005 - 11:32 am 5. Buddy Larsen:

They may say that you’re a dreamer, but you’re not the only one. Thanks for a superb lump-in-the-throat post. Might add, the Taiwan bond market has been up sharply during the last couple trading days–the opposite of what fear always does to bonds.

Mar 26, 2005 - 11:32 am 6. Terrye:

I don’t think it is going to do them any good.

Mar 26, 2005 - 12:49 pm 7. Eric Deamer:

I literally just found out that I’m going there in one month (April 22nd). Will try to blog from internet cafes or something, or provide reports from the ground. My girlfriend and I will only be there for 2 weeks but my Grandma will be there for 3 months. I’m such a hard-core “neo-con” about any country in a position similar to this (South Korea, Israel, Taiwan) that if there are any pro Chi-com demonstrations, or agitations, I’ll be the guy yelling “freedoom!!!!!” and causing an international incident. Grandma is the toughtest person I’ve ever known, and is a hard-core Chen and Bush supporter. If she has to kick some commie ass with her cane she will.

Mar 26, 2005 - 1:14 pm 8. Buddy Larsen:

Terrye, don’t forget the quantum increase in info-flo, and that PRC’s one-child policy has put dozens of millions of young men in a position of wanting to open to the world for the most basic of reasons.

Mar 26, 2005 - 1:15 pm 9. Terrye:

Buddy:

The US has made it plain that it does not support any seperation. Of course the US has also made it plain they want the big guy to leave the little guy alone.

Mar 26, 2005 - 1:38 pm 10. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Buddy,

That same reason is satisfied by conquest and rape. The excess males (in a number of countries, but especially China) is a destablizing factor that the ChiComs have to manage.

Most likely the Chinese don’t have the power to capture Taiwan, but they do have the power to destroy it.

If Taiwan moves too close to independence, the Chinese “leadership” will have a big problem. Their reign over the mainland would be at risk, with pro-Democracy forces and pro-fascism forces both attacking them. Furthermore, they would potentially lose huge amounts of face - being the first leader in millenia to permanently lose a part of China (never mind reality here… stick with me) is not a good position to be in.

Hence there is a significant probability of military action (threats such as missile tests escalating to actual missile strikes). Remember Tianamen Square - these things don’t always work out right.

If the bonds are doing well, then money thinks this, like all previous independence events, will blow over. I would watch electronics parts maker stock - especially of those sectors dominated by Taiwan (I’m not up to date on that, but not long ago all Silicon crystals for semiconductors were made in Taiwan).

Mar 26, 2005 - 1:49 pm 11. MisterSnitch:

You’re not alone in thinking this is a viral phenomenon. Check out the back of this month’s Wired magazine, specifically “AQUARIUS” (near the end). Things to come?

Mar 26, 2005 - 2:42 pm 12. Buddy Larsen:

John, a vital fact: the exports to USA directly & indirectly employ a gigantic percentage of the PRC workforce, and an enormous amount of their surplus is USA debt. Two problems that weigh against the xenophobia. In addition, they now need their sea approaches for oil if nothing else. The WWI Brits and Germans were so loathe to fight their capital ships because they’re just that, enormous repositories of wealth. At today’s tech level, PRC must understand that devoting enormous resources to float a blue water navy just concentrates our ability to efficiently beggar them. But, you’re right, anyone who has ever heard of the Yalu River will want to be extremely careful.

Mar 26, 2005 - 3:14 pm 13. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

Buddy,

I am certainly no expert, but I have read some Chinese history and they tend to be relatively irrational about issues of empire - the Yalu river and the 1978 invasion of Vietnam both show that China will not tolerate threats on its border (although it got whipped by Vietnam, so it is stuck with them). More recent Chinese actions towards North Korea show this same theme - they will not accept a unified Korea unless it is communist; not because they themselves are particularly communist, but because they want a malleable autocracy on their border for their own internal reasons.

The economic interties are indeed an important stablizing force, we hope! But the fascistic leadership has justified its existence partly on hostility towards Taiwan and a promise to re-unite it. This has served to divert attention from its own kleptocracy (and incompetent rule - wait until the Chinese banks are forced to become solvent!). But it has the proverbial tiger by the tail - creating a movement to take/hold Taiwan that threatens the leadership if they cannot satisfy it.

Mar 26, 2005 - 4:10 pm 14. David Thomson:

ìIf Taiwan moves too close to independence, the Chinese “leadership” will have a big problem. Their reign over the mainland would be at risk, with pro-Democracy forces and pro-fascism forces both attacking them. Furthermore, they would potentially lose huge amounts of face - being the first leader in millenia to permanently lose a part of China (never mind reality here… stick with me) is not a good position to be in.î

I also share your concerns. Red Chinaís leaders must save face. They seem to be more than willing to allow the Taiwanese to be free in de facto sense. Itís the de jure aspect that causes all the friction. I hope the citizens of Taiwan donít push the envelope too far.

One of the major reasons why war is unlikely between China and the United States is our economic interdependence. We desire their competitively priced items—and the Chinese have an estimated 100 million people earning their living producing exports sent to the USA. Nonetheless, I want everybody to take a chill pill. I am well reminded of Norman Angellís naÔve ìThe Great Illusion,î published in 1913. He advanced many economic reasons why the major powers would never go to war against each other. We all, of course, are well aware of what happened a year later. Take a look at the following link:

http://www.lib.byu.edu/~rdh/wwi/1914m/illusion.html

Mar 26, 2005 - 5:19 pm 15. Barry Dauphin:

Yes, despite all the bellowing about stability, if people have half a chance they’ll scream out for the “instability” of democracy and hope of relief from the stability of repression. TV and the internet are omnipresent. News of demonstrations in one place now moves quickly elsewhere. The Euros, unfortunately I fear, are probably peeing in their pants, since they worship at the altar of stability. How much better and less risky it would be if all those who enjoy democracy would actually support the longings of others for some semblence of the same. Instead how many will march in Paris and Berlin in solidarity with Ukraine, Taiwan, Lebanon, etc.?

Mar 26, 2005 - 7:07 pm 16. Kevin P:

Roger:

As long as the current regime is in power on the mainland the government in Taiwan can’t declare independence. That is the only reason China can legally invade. When we signed onto the One China idea we doomed Taiwans ability to officially declare independence. They can rule themselves for a indefinite period as long as they don’t declare it openly. Taiwan can go to reconcilliation meetings and feign interest and keep the status qou.The absurdity of fact that Taiwan can only keep their freedom by not stating it publicly is too ironic to believe but that is the way it is. And as far as any economic or actual warfare with the US you can’t forget that this is a country that has had millions of self inflicted deaths this century and is perfectly capable of of submitting it’s populace to that fate again.

Mar 26, 2005 - 7:31 pm 17. Knucklehead:

There have been some 12,000 American casualties in Iraq of which ~1,500 have died.

What have they died and suffered such grievous wounds for? To give hope (no, not hope - backbone) to MILLIONS who now may engage in the struggle to end the tyranny they suffer under. Not in Your Name?

Mar 26, 2005 - 7:46 pm 18. Macker:

Wouldn’t it piss the ChiComs off to no end if, during Taiwan’s demonstrations, those who favor democracy unveil a replica of the Goddess of Democracy!?

Mar 26, 2005 - 8:20 pm 19. M. Simon:

I think it is up to every loyal American to support the one China policy. It is official American Policy and is official Bejing policy.

I think that one China ought to be governed by the Taiwan Constitution with suitable modifications.

You see looked at correctly it is an excellent policy.

Mar 26, 2005 - 10:38 pm 20. Eric Deamer:

Again, look at the number of comments for this post versus the Schiavo one. That’s the sad story of blogs.

Mar 27, 2005 - 6:42 pm 21. Buddy Larsen:

Eric, you’re right about disproportionality…but most of the writing on that thread is by people who hope maybe somebody will notice and add that little extra to maybe un-snafu-ing that mess before the clock runs out and we’re ALL stuck with bad results. No, the Taiwan demos are huge news, of course…but remote for the nonce.

Mar 27, 2005 - 10:41 pm

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