17 Comments

1. David Thomson:

ìTHe Pakistanis ought to put him on tv. Show the invincible man in a jail cell. Let him radiate arrogance behind a set of cold steel bars.î

This is not being done? Why not? There is no reason to hesitate. The Geneva Conventions forbids putting soldiers fighting on behalf of a nation-state and wearing an identifiable uniform if front of a TV camera—but Abu Faraj al-Libbi is a terrorist. Heís is not owed anything. The coalition forces have every right to humiliate al-Libbi.

May 6, 2005 - 8:18 pm 2. TigerHawk:

I’m not sure I agree with Austin Bay that it is so great that we have all this intelligence. Or, put differently, I am troubled that we — the public — know that we have his laptop and his notebook.

If al-Libbi’s information turns out to have been significant, we probably degraded its value by publicizing our possession of it. If so, both the leaker and the news outlets who published the story have done us a great disservice. Indeed, that may have been the leaker’s intention — Pakistan’s intelligence service is riddled with jihadi sympathizers. It is entirely possible that the stories about the notebook and the laptop were leaked with the nefarious purpose of warning the Islamists to get out of Dodge.

May 6, 2005 - 9:14 pm 3. Buddy Larsen:

Tigerhawk, maybe stirring ‘em up the underground with tales of vast computer info won’t do much more than Libbi’s capture itself to get the loop frightened, and maybe the idea is to leak the ‘info treasure trove’ widely and get lotsa eyes noticing movement just when the bad guys have to start moving around.

May 6, 2005 - 9:27 pm 4. mythusmage:

Two other points of coincidence:

1. Austin designed war games in the day. Working alongside such liminaries as Al Nofi and James Dunnigan.

2. He lives in Austin, TX, home to Steve Jackson Games. SJG being publisher of GURPS World War II (among many other products).

May 6, 2005 - 9:49 pm 5. Rick Ballard:

TigerHawk,

If he had been taken in Jordan, maybe it would pay to keep it quiet. If the IDF had nabbed him, sure, silence would be golden. But the Pakis? Gimme a break, the reason he was so miffed was at least partially due to the fact that he had theoretically “good” connections with the Paki clandestine services. No way to keep the info tamped down. The Pakis playing both sides undoubtedly informed their al Queada contacts of his capture within hours. Might as well kick the ant hill real hard and watch what happens. I don’t imagine our Sigint people are getting much time off this weekend.

Who knows – Musharraf may be getting some very interesting info from the US as to activity by his own people immediately after the capture. Watch for significant “training accidents” in Pakistan over the next few weeks. Musharraf has not completed enough of a purge to be able to sleep soundly. Perhaps this will help.

May 6, 2005 - 9:55 pm 6. David Thomson:

I may be a naive Panglossian fool, but I think our intelligence people asked for the information to be released. Buddy Larsenís theory that they are hoping to ìget lotsa eyes noticing movement just when the bad guys have to start moving aroundî seems very plausible. Three days is a long time—especially if Abu Faraj al-Libbi previously felt so secure that he didnít bother to encode the contactís names, cell phone numbers, and addresses.

May 6, 2005 - 10:42 pm 7. Sandy P:

They should show him in his getaway outfit. Pants weren’t exactly down, more like he probably wasn’t wearing any since he was dressed as a woman.

AND

Didn’t AQ just try and take out Musharraf again?

Ahh, good reliable Rantburg:

5/6

PAKISTANI intelligence agents have foiled a new plot by al-Qaeda militants to assassinate President Pervez Musharraf, security officials told AFP tonight. Seven conspirators were arrested in a number of raids in central Punjab province in late April, one week before the capture of alleged al-Qaeda number three Abu Faraj al-Libbi in a northwestern region, they said. The group included Mushtaq Ahmed, a junior airforce official who escaped from jail late last year after being sentenced to death for his involvement in a 2003 attempt to eliminate Mr Musharraf, and who was recaptured last week. “First we smashed the gang plotting a new attack on Musharraf and then a week later we netted two Arabs including al-Libbi,” a top intelligence official said.

And it looks like the fun is beginning in Pakland.

— 5/7

Following his apprehension in PAKISTAN, al-Qaedaís Abu Faraj al-Libbi will soon be placed in the hands of US interrogators, who will be particularly keen to grill him on his connections with al-Qaedaís North African and British cells. But itís the Pakistan army that will be shaking in its boots.

Information gleaned from well-connected military analysts suggests that army officials connected with the Afghan cell during the Taliban period in Afghanistan (1996-2001) are likely to be in the firing line. Action is expected soon against several serving and retired army personnel. Abu Faraj is expected to be handed over to the US soon and is likely to be kept in a US detention center in Jordan or Morocco. Abu Faraj was deeply connected with al-Qaeda’s North African cells before becoming involved in Pakistan a few years ago. The North African cells are al-Qaeda’s most preserved, and are believed to be key to any future strikes on the US.

May 6, 2005 - 10:48 pm 8. David Thomson:

ìMy bet is the first 48 hours were the critical opportunity, when the information was red hot. Then the black book story is leaked, to see who jumps.î

—Austin Bay update

In the James Bond movies the villain is always brilliant and rarely makes mistakes. This, fortunately, is often not the case in the real world. Sometimes our enemies are bumbling fools. Although I could be wrong, I get the distinct impression that Abu Faraj al-Libbi didnít even bother to encode his valuable information. And if my theory is correct, then the coalitionís intelligence groups were chasing down the bad guys within the first few hours after his capture. It would be entirely sensible to publicly release the story 72 hours later and see what happens. Have you ever watched cockroaches running for cover when the lights are turned on?

May 7, 2005 - 9:18 am 9. jedrury:

Strategizing and theorizing are fine and, of course, safe, but I am reeling from the death toll of 800+ in Iraq this past week. Our country’s heroic commitment to wipe out these

monsters can not erase the photo of the GI carrying the dead infant wrapped in a bloodied blanket. A stomach punch more powerful than any boxer can muster.

May 7, 2005 - 10:16 am 10. Syl:

There have been cases of capture where it’s been kept secret at least a few days. If this was announced immediately there is a reason. Scare the pants off of al Qaeda, see who moves, and act accordingly.

As soon as someone is captured, the bad guys know anyway. Believe me. It doesn’t have to be announced to the world to be known to them. Whether the little black book is real or not doesn’t matter, the bad guys can’t take a chance that it’s disinformation.

May 7, 2005 - 10:20 am 11. David Thomson:

ì…but I am reeling from the death toll of 800+ in Iraq this past week.î

I donít think that many people were murdered. However, for the sake of the argument, letís go with this figure. If the death rate remained consistently that high for a full year, the total would reach some 41,600 victims. Iraq is populated by around 26,000,000 people. Do the math, the victim rate still does even come close to 1/10th of 1% of the total population. We need to occasionally take a chill pill and not overlook the bigger picture. The war is over and the ìinsurgentsî have no chance of returning to power.

May 7, 2005 - 10:39 am 12. Peter G.:

The number I just saw was nearly 300 killed in the last nine days, with the number of wounded at three times that. As a percentage of the overall population it’s small, but the tension and misery in Baghdad and some other Sunni Triangle cities is high right now, everyone wondering where the next car bomb will explode.

I feel the same as jedrury here. Yes, the terrorists are on the run, the “insurgents” can’t win, but when will the violence end? Probably not until Syria and Iran have their own regime changes.

May 7, 2005 - 12:28 pm 13. jedrury:

Over the months, I’ve read and posted on

this site, I have always been impressed by

the sensibility and erudition of its owner and posters. So when I posted earlier that the photo of the GI with the dead child blasted me; it was the reality of war brought home with such shocking vividness that its impact rivals the war photographs of Capa, Mydans and those Vietnam photographs of the naked girl running, weeping on the street and the general’s elimination of the Viet Cong. A photographic moment; “a decisive moment” in the words of Cartier Bresson, it is indecent to use “artistry,” but at the moment I can find no other.

May 7, 2005 - 1:33 pm 14. David Thomson:

ì…and the general’s elimination of the Viet Cong.î

We must be very cautious when looking at a specific photo—that may distract us from seeing the larger picture. Eddie Adams took the photograph of the South Vietnam general shooting the Vet Cong prisoner. He died a few years ago regretting that that many people perceived this officer as some sort of war criminal. Adams considered him to be a hero:

http://www.11thcavnam.com/main/shedding_some_light_on_another_p.htm

The terrorists are deliberately targeting innocent people. They desire to demoralize the so-called pampered citizens of the decadent West. We can ill afford to fall into their diabolical trap.

May 7, 2005 - 2:03 pm 15. Buddy Larsen:

Ran on to this photo here (ht PunditDrome), Jedrury. It must be the one to which you refer. You’re right, it is one of the heartbreakers of heartbreakers. So is the poem on the site. It’s not quite right to see this child merely as an innocent caught in a war; the child is the reason the soldier is there at all. Crushing irony. But as far as meaning beyond the facts pictured, there just isn’t any question, the soldiers and the children need to be rid of the terrorists.

May 7, 2005 - 2:21 pm 16. jedrury:

David and Buddy:

That is what I meant about posters with erudition and sensibility. I had forgotten the name Eddie Adams and that he had died.

Photojournalism is elevated to a higher nobler form of artistry in times of war, bringing to

us the horrors, the humanity and the courage so that we may judge, reflect, question and try to make sense.

Thanks for your apt comments.

May 7, 2005 - 3:09 pm 17. Yehudit:

“He lives in Austin, TX, home to Steve Jackson Games.”

Also home to Origin Systems and the notorious mansion and biannual Halloween Party of Richard Garriott. The party was free and open to anyone, but only a few hundred were allowed in, so you had to line up the night before to get tix. Apparently there was a “haunted house” ride that pulled out all the stops that professional Hollywood special effects could produce.

I regret never going there in the 10 years I lived in Austin.

May 7, 2005 - 7:03 pm

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