Comments on: Dept. of Shooting Your Own Foot http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/ Just another Pajamasmedia.com weblog Fri, 27 Nov 2009 07:06:12 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: larry http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67744 larry Wed, 02 Nov 2005 23:51:48 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67744 Typekey sucks. Typekey sucks.

]]> By: larry http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67743 larry Wed, 02 Nov 2005 23:50:45 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67743 Thibaud: Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia's government revenues by $1B per month. Am I reading this right? Russia sells a billion, with a b, barrels a month? Thibaud: Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia’s government revenues by $1B per month.

Am I reading this right? Russia sells a billion, with a b, barrels a month?

]]> By: larry http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67742 larry Wed, 02 Nov 2005 23:50:24 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67742 Thibaud: Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia's government revenues by $1B per month. Am I reading this right? Russia sells a billion, with a b, barrels a month? Thibaud: Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia’s government revenues by $1B per month.

Am I reading this right? Russia sells a billion, with a b, barrels a month?

]]> By: thibaud http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67741 thibaud Tue, 01 Nov 2005 13:11:40 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67741 The notion that Putin should be expected to support our effort to democratize the middle east is about as logical as expecting the New York Times to turn itself into a citizens' media outlet and forge an alliance with Pajamas and Kos. The notion that Putin should be expected to support our effort to democratize the middle east is about as logical as expecting the New York Times to turn itself into a citizens’ media outlet and forge an alliance with Pajamas and Kos.

]]> By: thibaud http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67740 thibaud Tue, 01 Nov 2005 13:08:45 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67740 There's no reason whatsoever to suppose that Russia's strategic interests in the middle east--Russia's backyard, as it were-- should align with our own. In fact, everything in Russia's geopolitical and economic situation suggests the opposite. Russia is, after the Saudis, the major swing oil producer in the world. They, like the Iranians, hugely benefit from soaring oil prices-- so much so that it's reasonable to argue Putin's government would not be in power today were it not for $60+/bbl. oil. Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia's government revenues by $1B per month. High oil is, quite literally, a lifeline for the Russian government. Instability in the middle east reduces supply and increases the attractiveness of Russia as a swing producer. Secondly, forget the G8 nonsense and recognize that, notwithstanding the end of Soviet communism, Russia is not and never will be part of "the West," if that 20c concept still has any meaning. Moscow is a modern, western city in many ways, but the rest of the country is a political, economic and demographic wasteland ruled by corrupt local despots/mafiosi of the sort one associates with parts of Asia or Africa. Citibank used to train its country managers by organizing nations it served along an arc of economic and political development. Poland was in the same tier as South Korea and Mexico; Russia was in the same group as Nigeria. Third, even if by some miracle the Russian people-- beyond Moscow-- suddenly developed Tocquevillian habits of indepependent civic association and organization and moved to overthrow the corrupt FSB-mafiosi alliance that dominates the regime, a truly democratic Russia would still have different interests from us due to its ties with, and vulnerability to, China, its proximity to the muslim arc on its southern tier, and its own oil-dominated economy. Russia is between East and West, even more so in a fossil fuel-dominated world economy. Intelligent Russians have always recognized this simple fact and sought to make the most of it. It's naive to think that any Russian government will line up behind us on middle eastern issues. There’s no reason whatsoever to suppose that Russia’s strategic interests in the middle east–Russia’s backyard, as it were– should align with our own. In fact, everything in Russia’s geopolitical and economic situation suggests the opposite.

Russia is, after the Saudis, the major swing oil producer in the world. They, like the Iranians, hugely benefit from soaring oil prices– so much so that it’s reasonable to argue Putin’s government would not be in power today were it not for $60+/bbl. oil. Every $1 increase in the price of oil lifts Russia’s government revenues by $1B per month. High oil is, quite literally, a lifeline for the Russian government. Instability in the middle east reduces supply and increases the attractiveness of Russia as a swing producer.

Secondly, forget the G8 nonsense and recognize that, notwithstanding the end of Soviet communism, Russia is not and never will be part of “the West,” if that 20c concept still has any meaning. Moscow is a modern, western city in many ways, but the rest of the country is a political, economic and demographic wasteland ruled by corrupt local despots/mafiosi of the sort one associates with parts of Asia or Africa. Citibank used to train its country managers by organizing nations it served along an arc of economic and political development. Poland was in the same tier as South Korea and Mexico; Russia was in the same group as Nigeria.

Third, even if by some miracle the Russian people– beyond Moscow– suddenly developed Tocquevillian habits of indepependent civic association and organization and moved to overthrow the corrupt FSB-mafiosi alliance that dominates the regime, a truly democratic Russia would still have different interests from us due to its ties with, and vulnerability to, China, its proximity to the muslim arc on its southern tier, and its own oil-dominated economy.

Russia is between East and West, even more so in a fossil fuel-dominated world economy. Intelligent Russians have always recognized this simple fact and sought to make the most of it. It’s naive to think that any Russian government will line up behind us on middle eastern issues.

]]> By: richard mcenroe http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67739 richard mcenroe Tue, 01 Nov 2005 03:02:03 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67739 Historically, the Russians have only shot themselves in the foot when they were standing on some other poor bastard's neck... Historically, the Russians have only shot themselves in the foot when they were standing on some other poor bastard’s neck…

]]> By: BurbankErnie http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67738 BurbankErnie Tue, 01 Nov 2005 00:53:49 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67738 <i>"The UN Security Council has hammered out a <b>tough resolution</b> demanding that Syria co-operate with a probe into the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister or <b>face possible sanctions.</b>"</i> It isn't a tough resolution <b>without</b> sanctions. Can we give Bolton some support to beat the shit out of some of these "diplomats"? This will work, yeah. If you don't follow this resolution, Kofi will shake his finger at you real hard. “The UN Security Council has hammered out a tough resolution demanding that Syria co-operate with a probe into the assassination of a former Lebanese prime minister or face possible sanctions.“

It isn’t a tough resolution without sanctions. Can we give Bolton some support to beat the shit out of some of these “diplomats”?

This will work, yeah. If you don’t follow this resolution, Kofi will shake his finger at you real hard.

]]> By: Ursus http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67737 Ursus Mon, 31 Oct 2005 21:25:11 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67737 Don't excuse Russia too quickly. The resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with the investigation. Syria isn't getting sanctioned or anything, just made to cooperate. It's a clear case of do-nothing. I'm quite sure that we've gotten this nonsense because Russia would have vetoed anything stronger. Don’t excuse Russia too quickly. The resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with the investigation. Syria isn’t getting sanctioned or anything, just made to cooperate. It’s a clear case of do-nothing.

I’m quite sure that we’ve gotten this nonsense because Russia would have vetoed anything stronger.

]]> By: Ursus http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67736 Ursus Mon, 31 Oct 2005 21:22:39 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67736 Don't excuse Russia too quickly. The resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with the investigation. Syria isn't getting sanctioned or anything, just made to cooperate. It's a clear case of do-nothing. I'm quite sure that we've gotten this nonsense because Russia would have vetoed anything stronger. Don’t excuse Russia too quickly. The resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with the investigation. Syria isn’t getting sanctioned or anything, just made to cooperate. It’s a clear case of do-nothing.

I’m quite sure that we’ve gotten this nonsense because Russia would have vetoed anything stronger.

]]> By: Puff http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67735 Puff Mon, 31 Oct 2005 20:21:38 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2005/10/31/dept-of-shooting-your-own-foot/#comment-67735 Given the recent rioting in France, and the police response I think its safe to say the French are out of the passive part of their response and are going aggressive. I suspect they feel they've been screwed by the arabs and got no reach around for throwing road blocks in the Americans way, so now they stagger to the other side of the road and offer to kick in Syria's front door if we roll in from Iraq. (it helps that we're the strong horse now, and have shown that the terrorists can be beat). Given the recent rioting in France, and the police response I think its safe to say the French are out of the passive part of their response and are going aggressive. I suspect they feel they’ve been screwed by the arabs and got no reach around for throwing road blocks in the Americans way, so now they stagger to the other side of the road and offer to kick in Syria’s front door if we roll in from Iraq. (it helps that we’re the strong horse now, and have shown that the terrorists can be beat).

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