26 Comments

1. Always right:

My simplified take on this: Part of it (the problem) is human hubris, part of it is our own education. The Western thinking has always taught us “Cause and Effect”, and logical conclusion for “experts” is to find the #1 (and the only one) cause which leads to the observed effect. Once you have the cause, it is obvious to “solve” the problem by reversing it.

Oriental thinking takes into account of more dynamic interactions between subject and environment, but their “management” is no better than that of the West.

Good intention kills more live forms than any other means combined. Yet we have not demanded consequences for those who are responsible. First, it may take a long time (years or decades) for us to realize the mistakes; second, even if we identify the “guilty” party, there is no “punishment” (the person may have moved on to other job/post as a reward for the previous work).

Dec 29, 2005 - 6:46 am 2. Jonathan Sabin:

I found that speech yesterday, via the Corner, and had the exact same reaction you did, Roger. It’s about time.

Dec 29, 2005 - 6:59 am 3. chris_m:

I graduated high school in 1984. I remember at that time it was a big deal because of the book ‘1984′. I seem to remember something that the world was to end in 1984 as well. Also there were always fears of something….killer bees from S. America – I live in Texas- I remember my little brother crying about the killer bees coming, and there were a bunch of others, killer ants, and crawling catfish. The only thing I know for sure is…the world is ALWAYS about to end. Now I have children and I work to show the positive outcomes. I don’t let them watch the news because of the focus on negativity. – A good article link, Roger.

Dec 29, 2005 - 7:31 am 4. In Vino Veritas:

I’v always thought that man-made global warming was a myth. This planet’s been around for some five billion years. It’s incredibly conceited for man to believe that a few hundred years of the industrial revolution could have any meaningful impact on something so complex as the plant’s climate. We flatter ourselves.

One other thing strikes about the speech: the language Crichton uses in describing the debilitating effects of fear also apply to the fear of terrorism that has had the same effect on Americans.

Take these lines from the speech, with my changes in brackets:

“But thousands of [Americans] who didn?t die were made invalids out of fear. They were told to be afraid. They were told they were going to die when they weren?t…

…Authoritatively telling people they are going to die can in itself be fatal.”

We as Americans have had the fear of terrorism pounded into us by authority figures so that now we are made “invalid” by fear. How else to explain the irrationality of someone in Wichita believing that he or she is going to be the target of a terrorist attack?

Crichton proceeds to highlight quotes using “intense” language to provoke fear. My favorite is the UN quote regarding the Y2K bug: “History offers no example of a parallel threat on a global, national or even local scale.”

To my mind, the following quotes from our leaders regarding terrorism use the same intensity to provoke an even more irrational fear:

“America must not ignore the threat gathering against us. Facing clear evidence of peril, we cannot wait for the final proof, the smoking gun that could come in the form of a mushroom cloud.”

- George W. Bush

“The Al Qaeda terrorist network is clearly the most urgent threat to U.S. interests.”

- Robert Mueller

“Like Communism, a threat that dominated much of the 20th Century, global terrorism is, I submit, the greatest threat of the 21st Century.

Al Qaeda?s purpose is clear. They want to revert back and create an idealized Islamic caliphate of 10 centuries ago. And, they want to achieve their goal by asymmetrical warfare, and by severely damaging the U.S. and the global economy.”

- Robert Bonner

“No, the greatest threat of the 21st Century will be terrorism fueled by racial and religious and ethnic hatreds with access to modern technology … using the Internet … using modern weapons of war … and taking advantage of the fact there has been a collapse of distance and a tearing down of walls.”

- Bill Clinton

My point is, in twenty years, these alarmist quotes will be treated in the same way as Crichton deals with other irrational threats in his brilliant speech.

Dec 29, 2005 - 7:40 am 5. Kristian H:

“But Chernobyl suggests that false information can be a health hazard as damaging as radiation. ”

Imagine the class action lawsuits against the MSM for Katrina Coverage. Vioxx coverage. Breast Implant coverage. AIDS coverage. Flu Shot Coverage. Ford Explorere/Firestone rollover coverage.

Wow. Just Wow.

Dec 29, 2005 - 8:25 am 6. ex-democrat:

ivv – only a champion narcissist would respond to a plea for humility by shrieking “see, i told you so!” LOL

Dec 29, 2005 - 8:25 am 7. Silicon valley Jim:

A few somewhat random observations:

First of all, Crichton is absolutely right.

Second, it’s astonishing how many presumably intelligent and well-educated people believe this nonsense. An employee of one of my clients, who holds two degrees from Ivy League colleges, simply assumes that global warming is a confirmed fact.

Third, Paul Ehrlich, despite his record of having been wrong on nearly every prediction that he has ever made, still gets featured in Stanford’s alumni magazine every couple of years, just as if he had been right about those predictions.

Fourth, while Western thinking has always taught us “Cause and Effect”, it also appears that our brains are wired that way. A human brain is, in many ways, a mechanism for making predictions.

Finally, James Watt invented the steam engine in 1776, so the industrial revolution, at least in terms of machines operated by combustion of some sort, has been going on for less than 230 years; In Vino Veritas’s point is even stronger than he states it.

Dec 29, 2005 - 8:26 am 8. Bostonian:

Vino, your analogy is seriously busted.

In contrast to all the things that Crichton talked about, Islamofascism has ALREADY caused multiple catastrophes claiming hundreds or thousands of lives.

In contrast to all the things that Crichton talked about, the threat of Islamofascism is a threat posed by human will.

In contrast to all the things that Crichton talked about, Islamofascists have declared their INTENT TO KILL, in words and in deeds.

***

He who disregards an explicit death threat from another human being is an utter fool.

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:04 am 9. Bostonian:

I should also add this:

In contrast to all the things Chrichton talked about, there is precedent for a human being to declare his will to kill millions of people and then to carry that out.

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:17 am 10. chuck:

Thanks for the link, Roger,

That was a great talk by Crichton, maybe Alfred E. Neumann got it right. May I propose “What, me worry?” as the slogan for the new century? We will all, I think, be happier.

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:18 am 11. David Thomson:

ìMy simplified take on this: Part of it (the problem) is human hubris, part of it is our own education. The Western thinking has always taught us “Cause and Effect”, and logical conclusion for “experts” is to find the #1 (and the only one) cause which leads to the observed effect.î

Whoa, I canít allow you to get away with this falsehood. The exact opposite is the reality of the situation. Our problem is that numerous ìscholarsî fail to live up to the demands of their western education. They have instead opted to slut on behalf of the prevailing zeitgeist.

ìThird, Paul Ehrlich, despite his record of having been wrong on nearly every prediction that he has ever made, still gets featured in Stanford’s alumni magazine every couple of years, just as if he had been right about those predictions.î

That is because so-called elite universities like Stanford and Harvard are often nothing more than intellectual whorehouses. This crap has got to stop. The MSM is not the only establishment that must be taken to task. These educational institutions must also be rebuked. Paul Erlich should embarrass the alumni of Stanford as John Kenneth Galbraith has humiliated Harvardís.

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:25 am 12. JK Ribera:

I always thought Mr. Simon overdid it in conflating contemporary liberals with reactionaries until I read this In Vino Veritas fellow/girl on here. This post above is among his/her more laughable. I don’t read “fear or terrorism” on this blog. I come here for the love of freedom. IVV seems to miss that entirely in his/her anger. Or is it defensiveness?

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:27 am 13. lindenen:

I wish Crichton would stop a moment and apply this analysis to much of the social engineering we Americans have been subjected to at the behest of our elites over the last one hundred years.

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:27 am 14. chuck:

JK Ribera,

IVV seems to miss that entirely in his/her anger. Or is it defensiveness?

It’s just fear of the Conservative, the mysterious other that runs the world, the strange spirit that animates Bush. May I suggest that the whole of the Democratic party has now fallen into a strange panic? Rove has shaken a bone at them and uttered a curse, death is near as the party sheds its thinkers and moderates. Who can exorcise this curse? Is there no one who will don the feathered headress and shake the rattle to save the party?

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:45 am 15. Silicon valley Jim:

Paul Erlich should embarrass the alumni of Stanford

He certainly embarrasses this Stanford alumnus (not that I think that Stanford, or elite universities in general, have a monopoly on professors who spout absolute nonsense).

Dec 29, 2005 - 9:59 am 16. Jamie Irons:

I think In Vino Veritas is, as my late father-in-law used to quip when you accused him of making a witty comment, “half right.”

The terror threat (that is, the threat of Islam(ism)) should not be overstated, but it should not be denied either.

I strongly recommend that everyone take a look (if they have not already) at Walid Phares’ superb Future Jihad.

Mr. Phares endeavors to demonstrate that a big part of the battle for us in the West is to not deny that the Islamists want to kill us, and that this program has been going on for centuries. So, in that light, Sr. Veritas’ comment is less helpful. But I still agree with him (if this is what he is trying to say) that we should not become hysterical over this problem.

And to David: Thanks for not including Yale among those despicable elite institutions!

Jamie Irons

Dec 29, 2005 - 10:20 am 17. David Thomson:

ìHe certainly embarrasses this Stanford alumnus (not that I think that Stanford, or elite universities in general, have a monopoly on professors who spout absolute nonsense).î

Stanford and Harvard are vastly superior to most other educational institutions. Things usually get worse further down the food chain—and thatís why they must be severely criticized. John Kenneth Galbraith and Paul Erlich dupe the general public because of their affiliation with these ìeliteî schools.

Dec 29, 2005 - 10:23 am 18. Silicon valley Jim:

Very good point, David.

Dec 29, 2005 - 10:27 am 19. David Thomson:

ìAnd to David: Thanks for not including Yale among those despicable elite institutions!î

What can I tell you? Iím just a soft hearted slob. Also, John Kenneth Galbraith never taught at Yale. I am therefore obligated to cut your school some slack.

Dec 29, 2005 - 10:41 am 20. Frederick:

Jamie Irons:

“I strongly recommend that everyone take a look (if they have not already) at Walid Phares’ superb Future Jihad.”

Yes. We are lucky to have Phares and people like him. They give us useful information, which is precious in the world that we actually live in, the world that Crichton describes. His complexity analysis reminded me again of just why it is that so many people don’t understand the danger that we face. Except for the happy accident that the markets had become largely computerized on 9/11, we’d likely still be recovering from economic chaos rather than having an economic boom. And except for the bravery of the passengers on the plane that went down in Pennsylvania on 9/11, we’d still be rebuilding the Capitol rather than arguing about some Washington political scandal. People who believe that the world is linear, that things have root causes, and that they can be understood by manipulating abstractions like racism or poverty or law in some better way, seem to have a limited interest in actual information, and a limited ability to imagine that anything can be different from what they know, or what the MSM tells them the future will be like. They are, I suppose, the product of an educational system that mocked rote learning because information could always just be looked up. And so we have the audience and the show in the short attention span theater. And the audience for what much of science is now too. Or “cargo cult science,” as Richard Feynman called it in his 1974 graduation address at Caltech. Thanks to the web, which seems likely to save us all in the end, it’s still available at http://www.physics.brocku.ca/etc/cargo_cult_science.html or by googling Feynman cargo cult. I’m sure you’ve read it, but anyone who has not should. Crichton is becoming a national treasure. As Feynman was.

Dec 29, 2005 - 12:09 pm 21. Terrye:

IVV:

You are missing the point. On the one hand we have people who invent mytholgocial disasters out of whole cloth in an effort to create a state of fear, on the other we have Jihadists flying planes into buildings and declaring war on on people.

My brother said that he thought the conservatives were exaggerating the threat of terrrorism just like they did communism. I said that if more than hundred million dead people was not enough to warrant fear what was?

In truth I think a lot of people have developed a fear of George Bush and Karl Rove that is every bit as bizarre as the fear of witches and alien invasion.

Dec 29, 2005 - 12:10 pm 22. Bostonian:

The point about fearing Islamofascism is not to fear that unless we stop them, there will be worldwide shariah. That will never happen.

Rather it is to fear that in their attempt to achieve worldwide sharia, they will randomly kill total strangers in all parts of the world.

Dec 29, 2005 - 12:20 pm 23. larry:

Crichton’s footnotes in “State of Fear” are factual. It’s an excellent read, jam-packed with facts you can shove up enviro-nazis’ butts. He also has a speech on bad science, the gist of which is, consensus among scientists does not good science make. It reminded me of Red Buttons hosting a celebrity roast: Did Copernicus have consensus? No. Galileo? Etc, etc. If I can find it, I’ll post a link.

Dec 29, 2005 - 12:24 pm 24. Sandy P:

IVV doesn’t understand that we don’t live in fear, when we do, the nukes come out.

Does IVV understand America’s core?

Dec 30, 2005 - 9:38 am 25. Oyster:

Well said, Terrye. I wouldn’t call it “fear” of terrorism (or communism), but a healthy respect for the damage it can do is necessary to survival.

And your brother sounds like my brother. Are you sure we’re not related?

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