52 Comments

1. jedrury:

Hillary’s move is a bonehead move because the votes are not there to sustain a filibuster [even Durbin concedes as much]. One can argue that she is positioning herself to appeal to her leftish base, but wasn’t she appealing last week to the mainstream. To continue her charade of moderatism, she should have said that she will vote for cloture.

Jan 27, 2006 - 9:38 pm 2. chuck:

Color me dumb,

But isn’t there a significant Catholic/Italian/Irish vote in New York and Massachusetts? Are comments like Hillary’s likely to have any political consequences in those states? And in NJ, PA, Chicago, etc.? Have the Democrats given on the Northern working class that, along with the Southern Democrats, used to make up the core of the party?

Jan 27, 2006 - 9:47 pm 3. Kevin Peters:

Roger:

It’s not stupid. She knows it’s not going to happen. She is getting heat from Molly Ivans and the Kos Kids so she is throwing them a bone to soothe their fevered minds and since Alito will make it on the court anyway she can pretend that she went to the whip for her lefty base without suffering any major damage. I doubt think “she tried to fillibuster Alito’ will have the same effect as “I voted for it before I voted against it.” Barring any major scandal, and she doesn’t have the same zipper problem that her hubby has, she just has to make sure that her radical base doesn’t try a third party run with someone else. You can forget about all these poll’s this far away from 2008 that shows her performing poorly. She has the Democratic nomination wrapped up and she will make enough Oprah visits to shore up her negative ratings. The thought of another Clinton Presidency makes me ill but she knows what she is doing. Kerry is to dense to know how many of his voters were holding their noses when they checked his name on the ballot and Gore is, well he is Al Gore. She has the Democratic nomination in the bag.

Jan 27, 2006 - 9:57 pm 4. Roger:

No, Kevin, I think this kind of thing is a mitake her husband would not have made (yes, he made others of a personal nature). She doesn’t have to throne bones of this nature to theKos Kids. They have nowhere to go. She has to worry about the American middle. Her recent poll numbers were surprisingly bad. Any hope of her election is in the middle. This was a blunder, as was the plantation nonsense. I’m beginning to think Hillary doesn’t have the chops.

Jan 27, 2006 - 10:07 pm 5. Jim Rockford:

This is really the Kos-ification of the Democratic Party. Kos, Ivins, and others are upset over Hillary’s hawkishness so this is their bone.

The only problem is that Hillary has a personality like nails on a chalkboard. She *MIGHT* get the nomination (Dean, Gore, and Feingold will all appeal to the Kos base), but is dead meat in the General Election.

Does this hurt her? Yeah. Cause she gets another loss in her loss column. So she’s weaker.

Jan 27, 2006 - 10:19 pm 6. jedrury:

I agree with Roger she must worry about the middle.

Once you parse the recent numbers of her disappointing poll numbers – I confess that I have not – you may find the 51%, while called “unfavorable” or “disfavorable” by the media, that a large amount of the figure is the hard rock “I hate Hillary” crowd, like me.

You can not go for the nomination if your anti Hillary figures are that high. The party and the faithful and the media are not going to swallow that Kool Aid.

Jan 27, 2006 - 10:25 pm 7. chuck:

Kos, Ivins, and others are upset over Hillary’s hawkishness so this is their bone.

I’ve gotta wonder if she won’t change her tune on Iraq. Stranger things have happened than politicians changing positions to chase votes.

Jan 27, 2006 - 11:18 pm 8. Godzilla:

The thought of Hillary being the Commander-in-Chief will send chills down the spine of any clear-thinking man and woman. The world is going to be a far more dangerous place two years from now, and at the very least we will need someone who has an affinity and understanding, not an ingrained animosity, of the military. Sane americans will understand this, regardless of the MSM, and it will the responsibility of a united front of bloggers, radio-hosts, and word-of-mouth to ensure that she does not get elected. Maybe in another time, but not now.

Jan 27, 2006 - 11:26 pm 9. Mogwai:

Voting for Alito might seem to appeal to the middle now, when most of america does not know much about him. After he has been on the court for awhile, and has a chance to take part in some Supreme Court decisions, and write some opinions, his far right views will be quite clear to americans (look at the far right’s celebration of him already).

He will be easy to paint as an enemy of the common man, and a tool of the powerful. Hillary is making the right choice, but she is still no Russ Feingold, and won’t have my vote.

Jan 28, 2006 - 1:34 am 10. Terrye:

Roger:

I think she sees her vote as symbolic. The idea is that Alito will vote to overturn Roe and when he does she wants to be able to say I told you so. Democrats are beginning to get the idea that middle America will support restrictions on abortion, but they still believe people want some legal abortion rights.

And so Hillary is voting with Feinstein.

But it looks like just plain contrariness right now.

Jan 28, 2006 - 1:57 am 11. klrfz1:

I agree, Terrye. I look at it like her getting some insurance for free. If the Supreme Court makes a controversial decision on abortion, Hillery can say look I wanted to filibuster Alito to prevent this. As for the apolitical middle, she can just point to the other Senators who were in favor of filibustering. John Kerry’s decision to filibuster from Davos should give her cover with the middle. He was almost the President, you know.

You can’t beat something with nothing. Hillary has something even though it’s mainly name recognition and a fawning MSM. What do the Republicans have so far? Well, there’s Mitt Romney, the Mormon from Massachusetts. There’s George Allen, Senator and former Governor from Virginia. There’s McCain, who would be just as bad as Hillery. Face it, all Hillery has to do is get the Democratic nomination and not make any gaffs and she has a better than 50% chance of being president. Someone will have to beat her with something.

Jan 28, 2006 - 3:33 am 12. klrfz1:

I wish I could edit all those Hillerys into Hillarys! Proof that preview is just not good enough. Maybe I should start using HRC for Hillary. Except for a long time I thought it stood for Her Royal Clinton.

Jan 28, 2006 - 3:38 am 13. David Thomson:

ìI’m beginning to think Hillary doesn’t have the chops.î

ìHillary has something even though it’s mainly name recognition and a fawning MSM.î

I declared only a few days ago that Hillary Clinton is toast:

YARGB – Flares into Darkness: Hillary Clinton is Toast

The number one reason why Hillary Clinton has little chance of becoming our next president is the rapid decline of the legacy mediaís influence. Two and a half years years from now is a long time. I cannot imagine a realistic scenario where the MSM might help her carry the day.

ìIf the Supreme Court makes a controversial decision on abortionî

Most people will just shrug their shoulders if Roe vs. Wade is overturned. Abortion will still be legal in many states. If nothing else, the arguments supporting the constitutional right to an abortion are downright silly. They do not deserve any respect whatsoever. I found it interesting to learn that apparently Mickey Kaus agrees with me on this point. The abortion issue should be resolved in the legislatures of each individual state, or the constitutional amendment process.

Jan 28, 2006 - 4:43 am 14. Always right:

This is a clear indication that Hillary doesn’t feel comfortable with her own base support.

The far-left used to solidly support her, becasue they know she is one of them. All she had to do is use the cloaking device to make her look more “human” and “centrist”. Now the far-left has moved on to even more fringe outerspace, all of a sudden Hillary’s people are not sure about the base they took for granted any more.

Expect to see her getting more shrilled in the future. And don’t worry, there will be others (Gore, Dean, etc.) to make her seem marginally “reasonable”.

Jan 28, 2006 - 5:59 am 15. jedrury:

Mogwai: I disagree with you. The voters will not associate Hillary’s foresight two years from now. She has to be seen as moderate now. Her tactic in voting for the filibuster does not fit with that pattern.

David: I agree with you in most parts. Here is another point. Hillary is a terrible campaigner; her speeches are wooden, she reads them without passion or emotion, her personality grating, her demeanor wholly contrived.

There is a divide within the Dems which can be described as Clinton resentment. The MSM may think that the nomination is Hillary’s for the asking, but they are wrong. Edwards, Kerry, Gore Feingold are not going to roll over and say “it is her time now.” That is not the way the Dems work. She is going to have to go to Iowa and NH and fight for each vote. She may be a media star but she is prone to gaffs and she may just turn out to be a lead balloon. As first lady she was able to fend off the media and carefully script her appearances. That will not be her privilege in seeking the nomination.

Hillary has a horrid past; it will all be put on display for the voters. If one thinks Swift Boat Vets as effective use of media, be assured that there is a cadre of Hillary haters just waiting to launch the incoming on the junior senator from NY.

Jan 28, 2006 - 7:09 am 16. RogerA:

Very clearly, HRC manages to solicit both visceral and more rational reactions–Only trouble is, neither are in her favor. I think her current leftward sashay is because she perceives the moonbats will be playing a major role in the nominating process. And, of course, she has to clear that to get the general election. Time will tell on that one. and I think commenters have all made decent arguments one way or the other.

Re abortion, I think the Democratic Party is SO hungup in Roe v Wade that it is far more important to them that it is the nation as a whole–David Thompson summarizes it neatly above: In fact, it was ‘ole Bill and Mr Wiggly themselves that summarized what most Americans think about abortion: it should legal safe and rare, and R v W is to (dare I say it) EXTREME. Most Americans agree that parental notification is a good idea and that partial birth abortions are pretty grisly things–Roe can be overturned, abortion will continue to be legal in most states, and the country will keep right on going.

And, in two years, no one is going to be able pin anything on Justice Alito if only because its a nine person court. In fact, in two years, Alito will be forgotten by most Americans who would probably be hardpressed to name all of the justices. HRC–like John Kerry–are simply the gifts that keep on giving.

Jan 28, 2006 - 7:38 am 17. Captain Hate:

“The MSM may think that the nomination is Hillary’s for the asking, but they are wrong. Edwards, Kerry, Gore Feingold are not going to roll over and say “it is her time now.” That is not the way the Dems work. She is going to have to go to Iowa and NH and fight for each vote.”

A big question is what form will the primaries take. The traveling dog and pony show that McAulife orchestrated in 2004 was about as stupid an idea as a major political party has had. It was only because of Bush hatred by the donks that a thoroughly unlikeable candidate like Kerry was able to make it as close as it was. There is no evidence that mad Doctor Dean will be an improvement over McAulife and, without Bush hatred, if the Repubs can come up with a decent candidate (not that they will) the carnage could be severe. Unfortunately, nothing short of that will cause the donks to renounce the tactics that have demonstrably not worked.

Jan 28, 2006 - 7:55 am 18. Jamie Irons:

There is one more — huge — factor that gives one pause about the Hill.

Her hubby.

In most presidential contests, the first spouse is a bit of a cipher, and she (in all previous cases, she, since Hill would be married to the first ever potential first gentleman), is not much of a factor in the voter’s decision.

But think of the baggage this first gentleman would be dragging back toward the White House.

Think of the late night talk show jokes about stained dresses and cigars, jokes with the punchline “it depends on what the meaning of is is,” or “I did not have sex with that woman.” All that material is going to come up again, and the Clinton past is not merely a subliminal awareness in most voters’ minds.

Jamie Irons

Jan 28, 2006 - 8:23 am 19. jedrury:

Jamie:

You are right. The big fella is the 800 pound gorilla in the Lincoln bedroom. Hillary can’t escape the pardon scandal, Monica, the list goes on and on. For this reason, and many others, Hillary’s run is fraught with trouble for her. She can’t escape the weight of their history.

So why is the media so fixated on her? She is a celebrity; she is Oprah, Brittany, Angelina and all that celeb garbage; but when the American voter goes to the polls, it gets serious, they are not that fickle.

I venture to say: Hillary is a huge boomlet, balloon ready to pop.

Jan 28, 2006 - 8:43 am 20. w0tm:

I was enjoying reading all the thoughtful comments and even what I considered well thought out, but wishful thinking, comments. I too REALLY hope Hillary is “dead meat” and “toast” in the 2008 general election (I agree, she has the nomination locked up) but few are factoring in a repeat of ‘92. A third party “moderate” candidate who will siphon off ten Republican votes for every one Democratic vote. Hillary will win with the lowest percentage in modern history but that doesn’t matter – she’ll still be president.

John McCain will feign a run in the Republican primaries, barely rank in the “all others” category then throw a pre-planned media event hissy fit the biggest night of the Republican convention because he wasn’t given a prime time one-hour speaking slot (or whatever demand he knows the RNC will not accept) then “for the good of the country” will announce he’s leaving the Republican Party and announce his candidacy as a third-party candidate. He’ll time it so that whoever is the Republican nominee is totally drowned out and the Republican convention will quickly be forgotten as the media goes berserk over their dream ticket FINALLY appearing to save legacy media (most important) and, they think, the country. The next morning, the “McCain for President” organizations that are already being set up in most states will swing into action under his new banner (The Freedom Party perhaps but that is kind of taken). This is a poorly kept secret among local “McCain for President” people. I’ve spoken with a few of them who know all this and are ready to go. McCain is very much already running for president but as a third-party candidate. The RNC HAS to know this but they have no clue how to derail him. He is the Perot ‘92 train wreck all over again. Like a giant meteor headed to earth. You see it but what can you do!

Does McCain believe he can win? Of course not! No more than Perot thought he could win. Perot was settling a score with Bush 41 for snubbing him many years before when he wanted to send his own private army to Vietnam to free some of his employees but Bush stopped him. He “got even” and he gave us eight years of disaster. Does McCain have a score to settle with Bush 43? Perhaps. I do know he wants his choice of cabinet posts under president Hillary. And he’ll get his wish. Who will be his running mate? Rudy Giuliani. Not Joe Lieberman. How do I know? Go to http://www.netsol.com and look up how many domain names various potential candidates have registered. Like hillary.com, hillary.net and so on. Hillary is off the charts on registrations. McCain has tons and so does Giuliani (why would someone who says he may never run for public office again register many dozens of Web domains? — funny now the truth can be found in hidden corners). But Joe Lieberman only has a few.

We all know Hillary has a core base that will vote for her no matter what she says or does. In a three party race with the other side being split between two candidates, she needs very additional votes to win the presidency. Scary? You bet! Probable? I believe all signs point to it. Be ready for eight more years of disaster (actually less as I believe the country could not survive another eight years of the Clintons in the White House).

BTW – for those who think she doesn’t have the “political ear” that Bill does, I agree. She is a disaster in spontaneous situations. But Bill is her number political advisor. Every pre-planned thing she says or does has been recommended or graced by Bill. Her vote against cloture and NOT making a public announcement is “classic Bill”. It mollifies her (temporary) troubles with the Daily KOS crowd and her vote will be LONG forgotten by next week, much less the 2008 election. Bill will run both her campaign and her like a puppet. She’ll be the “stealth candidate”. No general press conferences and EVERY interview will be with fire-friendly media throwing soft-ball “tell us how mean conservatives are again” questions. The ticket will say “Hillary Clinton (D)” but, when the lever is pulled, the lever will be for the Bill & Hillary team all over again.

Jan 28, 2006 - 9:10 am 21. Rick Ballard:

Just for grins toss in a possibility that Giuliani might take her on in ‘06. It’s a no lose for him as far as I can see. If she beats him it would only be the super libs (of which NY has an ovearabundance) that would carry her. Giulianin could lose and move towards an ‘08 run with a great rationale as to why he could beat her nationally even though he didn’t beat her in NY. NY is currently a null factor in the Presidential race anyway (like CA).

Hillary cannot hold her NY seat without the fringe left.

New Yorkers know that Hillary is only biding her time and they also no there is not a damn thing she can bring home. Giuliani doesn’t have to overcome the “he’s only doing it because he wants to run for President” because she’s so damned obvious about her intentions.

Go Rudy!!

Jan 28, 2006 - 9:18 am 22. Kevin Peters:

Everyone:

I hate to be wrong but nothing would please me more then if I had to eat a large dish of crow if HRC flames out in 2008. Kerry, Gore, Biden- Dead Men Walking. Edwards, maybe, but he will have to give more then his “I was poor before I was rich” stump speech and I don’t think he has it in him. Feingold seems to be the messiah of the far left but the party regulars still remember McGovern and they won’t go down that road unless the American death tally in Iraq reaches twenty to thirty thousand and I don’t see that happening.

HRC has to win the Democratic primary first and this was a cheap piece of meat to throw to the hard core of her party. They still don’t trust her,suprise!, but as long as they don’t feel ignored they may hang in there. As far as Kos and his merry band of pranksters having no where else to go I think Roger is giving them too much credit. Kos is a good buisnessman but I don’t think he will suffer a twenty year program to slowly convert the Democratic party into his dream of a Socialist Pacifist paradise (soft totalitarian state for the reality based thinkers among us.) They went down that road with Kerry, lost, and are not going to that road again. They will back Feingold, lose, and then erupt. They have lovingly read enough Mao and Lenin and realize that sometimes you have to tear down, purge, and reorganize if you really want to achieve your revolutionary goals. Kos isn’t satisfied with just having Berkley as his pretend city state paradise and he might just bolt and take the 3 to 6 per cent that would cost her the election.

HRC doesn’t have to get the hard core to love her, she just has to get them not to despise her. Alito will not be an issue in 2008 unless he is blocked from the court. That won’t haappen. I hope I am wrong.

Jan 28, 2006 - 9:32 am 23. w0tm:

Hi Rick,

I agree EXCEPT I don’t see Hillary running for re-election later this year if she sees any credible competiton and the polls agree. Just as Mitt Romney is not running for re-election for governor in Massachusetts but has tons of domain names recently registered and campaigners already at work (see http://www.massformitt.com) plus non-stop fund-raiser dinners ($1,000/plate dinner next week for example).

If Giuliani throws his hat in the ring, expect to see Hillary drop out of the race as soon as she does her first straw poll. Who knows what excuse she’ll use but you can bet the media will cover for her making whatever reason she gives as equal to a Mother Teresa moment. I’m guessing she is hoping this happens as she would then be free to devote all her time to her presidental bid. When you’ve already got the nomination sewn up, having a full two years to run for president is a great head start! I like Romney but also like several other candidates. We have a good “stable” to draw from no matter what the legacy media says. The Dems just have Hillary. But then they have her like it or not. I also hope Rudy runs and wins in New York as that would leave McCain with a less popular and less well-known running mate for his third party run in 2008.

Jan 28, 2006 - 9:39 am 24. Rick Ballard:

Hi w0tm,

McCain will be 72 in ‘08 and does not appear to be getting smarter with age. It’s his last shot and the size of his ego makes your scenario plausible in theory. I think it would be extremely difficult to realize because of the potential for use of some really nasty negative info coming out about him. He did not inspire much admiration during some of his adventures and there are comrades with stories to tell that he cannot brush off easily. That’s always been one of the reasons that the MSM has egged him on to run – to crucify him if he got the nomination.

I can see Hillary running from a fight with Rudy but I don’t forsee a positive outcome arising from that choice.

A very key factor in the current political calculus is the possible/probable retirement of Justice Stevens. Should he retire at the end of this term the ‘06 election will take on an entirely different flavor for both parties. The filibluster by Clinton et al ad nauseum has to be looked at with respect to that potential event as well.

I would also note that the year end FEC reports are a little slow in being posted – by both parties. There’s a bit of stagecraft going on in that regard also.

Jan 28, 2006 - 9:58 am 25. jedrury:

w0tm:

Let’s slay the canard that “Bubba was a great politician,” the media says he was, and, that somehow he will be able to Edgar Bergen Hillary.

He was very adroit at talking for hours on the platform, and, never saying anyhting of substance. Most memorable lines: “I did not have sex with that woman,” does not rival Lincoln’s Gettysburg address or JFK’s inaugural speech.

If he was the great pol and seer, all the MSM talk is about, he would not have exited the WH with a string of mangy pardons to his credit.

He would not have had the cigar and semen stained dress to live down. He would have finessed Bosnia and Kosovo better and would have seen Arafat for the scum he was. Sure, he finessed Newt who was ripe for destroying himeself but all this talk about Bubba being some political Houdini I don’t buy.

More to the point: Hillary is going to stand on her own before the media and the other candidates in the debates and convince the voters she is for real. She’s going to have to slog through the snows of NH and the winds of Iowa and convince the voters that she is not the evil witch of the 90s. And Bill or no Bill, she is tethered to the dark side of Bubba and his past. A better term: the weight of their past.

Jan 28, 2006 - 10:13 am 26. David Thomson:

ìJohn McCain will feign a run in the Republican primaries, barely rank in the “all others” category then throw a pre-planned media event hissy fit the biggest night of the Republican convention because he wasn’t given a prime time one-hour speaking slot (or whatever demand he knows the RNC will not accept) then “for the good of the country” will announce he’s leaving the Republican Party and announce his candidacy as a third-party candidate.î

John McCain will do no such thing. He is truly committed to the Republican Party. There will not be a viable center-right third party movement in 2008. Even the Democrats are unlikely to opt for this strategy. The Ralph Nader debacle has not been forgotten.

“The MSM may think that the nomination is Hillary’s for the asking, but they are wrong.”

Who will care what the MSM thinks? Gosh darn it, I am going to start feeling sorry for myself. I guess nobody is impressed with my argument that the MSM influence will be of relatively minor importance by November, 2008. Hillary Clintonís unofficial comrades will be incapable of providing her with cover.

Jan 28, 2006 - 10:22 am 27. triticale:

If McCain does decide to make a play for the Center, he will need a Democrat as his running mate. I would suggest Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold.

Jan 28, 2006 - 10:23 am 28. Patrick Tyson:

Hillary Clinton will win a landslide victory against token opposition this November and will almost certainly be the frontrunner for the Democratic Party nomination to be President of the United States of America in 2008 right into the first week of 2008 providing she forms the exploratory committee, assembles a staff, spends time in Iowa and New Hampshire, accumulates pledges of cash and support elsewhere, and finally throws her hat into the ring.

2008 promises to be quite the political year. There is little Hillary can or will do this year, and certainly nothing having to do with nominees to courts, that will have any bearing on whether she wins the nomination and the election in 2008.

Jan 28, 2006 - 10:30 am 29. JK Ribera:

What interests me is that the Republicans have a near certain winner in Giuliani. Will they have the courage to nominate him?

Also for Senator Clinton, I would agree with Mr. Simon that she is a vastly less able politician than her husband. Though, as the poster above says, the judicial wars of 2006 may seem far away by 2008, they are an indication of Hillary’s tin ear.

Jan 28, 2006 - 10:43 am 30. w0tm:

Rick and Jed,

Once again, I agree. I Just need to clarify a bit. First of all, I REALLY hope my prediction is wrong. I REALLY, REALLY, do! But, for what it’s worth, you read it here first if the meteor strikes us all.

McCain will be 72 but he won’t win and has no desire to win. He wants to be secretary of Defense plus settle the slights he feels Bush 43 put on him in 2000. He does have a super ego and he does hold a grudge. Thank heavens we have a president who may also hold grudges (hey, we all do) but he puts his country first.

Hillary doesn’t have to win a majority of the votes, just more than either of the other two candidates. In a two-party race, any of the so far mentioned Republican candidates could beat her. She has her base but also has a HUGE “I’d rather vote for ANYONE than vote for Hillary” block she’s already written off. She can only win if she splinters the Republican vote. Just as Bill won in ‘92. Contrary to left-leaning polls that said Perot voters were evenly split, accurate polls showed, without Perot, Bill would have lost big-time. Bill was the first president-elect in modern history to not have formed a transition team until after election day. He was the most surprised man in America when he woke up as president-elect the day after the election. Thanks to Ross Perot. Contrary to all the “black helicopter” people who have “proof” that Bill set up Ross Perot to run, I don’t believe it. Perot may have “coordinated” a bit with Bill but he ran his own campaign and may have even believed he could be elected during a few brief moments.

Absolutely. Bill is a “great politician” because the MSM said he was and is. It’s been said recently that having the media behind you is worth 15 points. Thank heavens for the “new media” (us). If we still just had the three networks and Walter telling us how it is each night, we’d have president Gore right now and minorities in both houses.

A long lost quote (but I feel a very important quote considering all that has happened since it was said in 1968) came from Timothy Leary as he was addressing the mob of rioters at the DNC convention in Chicago (or peaceful patriotic protestors if you’re reading this while on break from MoveOn.org) — “we don’t have to win EVERYTHING to triumph; we just need to take over the media, academia and the judiciary. Go back to school and become reporters, teachers and judges.” Words long lost in history but I remember thinking at the time “how odd. What can that do?”. Even if he was the “King of LSD”, he was right with that message.

As we all know, “history is written by the victors”. Right now, that’s media/academia/judiciary. Their control of MSM is writing real-time history (what you read about today in tomorrow’s newspaper) as they want it to be, not as it really is. The Right has finally woken up to this takeover. A takeover every bit as real as if there had been a coup in our government. “Majority Rules” is in the dustbin of history for those of the Left. “The End Justifies The Means” is now the rule of the day for them.

As I say, I hope I’m wrong but, if not, expect to see Hillary elected with, like, 38% of the vote and only the bluest of the blue states. But she’ll still be president. But, unlike Bill’s unbelievable and unexpected lucky break with Perot, this time, the spoiler third party is already in the works.

Like you say, we can only hope the New Media (don’t look to the Legacy Media, A.K.A. MSM, for help) nails her in some real slipups and sinks her campaign. But I’m not going to count on it. She’ll be so sealed off from the real world, she’ll probably be known as the “30 second sound bite” candidate. Any EVERY sound bite will have first been run by a half dozen focus groups. She’ll be the “universal candidate” by election day for her core base and enough other voters who can be fooled (not many but it will be enough). Everyone else will just laugh and not believe ANYONE could vote for her. They’ll also wake up to “President Clinton” the day after election day. May the new media grow FAST and keep this nightmare scenario from happening!

Jan 28, 2006 - 11:23 am 31. beautifulatrocities:

Mixed metaphor alert: the Dems have gone off a cliff & the Kos Kidz are holding the marionette strings. Poor Hill, she’s going to need Dramamine as she veers wildly trying to placate the nuts while still pretending to be a normal person. And you’re right, Bill’s smarm may have made MoDo wet, but Hill is just shrill.

Jan 28, 2006 - 11:44 am 32. jedrury:

w0tm:

You are banking on a far fetched scenario that
if it plays out may happen [give credit were credit is due], but McCain is a Republican first and foremost and he has repeatedly shown that.

Despite all the come heither stares and inducements of the MSM and the Kerry crowd, McCain has stayed with the GOP. He also knows history; while manic at times, he knows the histories of third party spoilers in American politics and how they are treated by historians. He is going to run and his age of 72 at campaign time is media chatter. He will rest and he has been down this road before; battle tested as the phrase goes. So I don’t buy into your scenario or some other poster inexplicably calling for McCain to run with Feingold.

Lastly, I agree it is a long time until 2008. anything can happen but the big Hillary balloon to soar has a lot of major obstacles ahead.

McCain has to go right to nominate someone favorable to the right and religious folks.

Jan 28, 2006 - 12:01 pm 33. rickl:

w0tm:

I think your nightmare scenario is dead on, and I have written almost the exact same thing myself elsewhere (though not here). I fervently hope we’re both wrong.

I think McCain has more loyalty to his ego than to the Republican Party.

Jan 28, 2006 - 12:18 pm 34. w0tm:

I guess the old saying “that’s what makes a horse race!” applies. We’ll all just have to wait and see what really happens.

If I may be permitted a moment for a general comment, I came across this blog this morning somewhat by accident. I wasn’t going to post a comment but then decided to after all.

This is a great blog! How nice to associate with intelligent people having well thought out, polite discussions (instead of dropping to mindless name calling by the second post).

I was very active on the http://www.townhall.com blog when it first began but then MoveOn.org and DailyKOS (I read their blogs) both put out “all hands on deck” posts to “jump over” to the new townhall.com blog and “cause havoc” since townhall.com is such a “high value target” as they called it. After that, every intelligent post was met with dozens of mindless, inane and, usually, profane comments attacking the blogger barely commenting on what he or she had to say. It’s died off now but so has the blog pretty much. I hope it slowly and quietly becomes active again and is not again discovered by those who seek to silence others. Anyway, great blog! If I’m welcome, I’ll try to be a regular when I have time.

All the best!

Jan 28, 2006 - 12:31 pm 35. Terrye:

I think the Republicans are far more vulnerable then they want to believe.

If the Democrats can steer away from national security issues and concentrate on domestic issues someone like Hillary might do better than most of you think.

I know I voted for George Bush in 2004 because of the War on Terror and my disgust with the Democrats, but I am also tired of a lot of judgmental right wingers drowning in hubris assuming that everyone else is just like them, except for their alter ego Kos.

Not so, there are a lot of Independents in this country and things like privacy, health care, and the economy are areas where Democrats tend to fare well. I know I am getting real tired of both extremes but feel like I am stuck with the Republicans. My respect for Bush and my disillusionment with people like Hillary are what is keeping me there, not partisanship.

By right winger I do not mean neocons. I mean people who think that illness is a product of lifestyle so if poor people get sick it is their own fault. Or believe that people think there is no right to privacy. Remember Schiavo, that hurt Bush.

So I guess time will tell.

Jan 28, 2006 - 12:53 pm 36. Plainslow:

What would the people against Alito do, if Walmart did’nt hire a qualified canidate who had the same belief’s they THINK Alito has?

Jan 28, 2006 - 1:01 pm 37. klrfz1:

I disagree with John McCain on policy but I believe he is an honorable man. I would like to point out that if he were to run for President as an independent in 2008, he would be betraying the Republican party he has spent his life in. That’s point one.

Point two is if McCain was going to use a 3rd party candidacy as a way to get back at George W. Bush then why didn’t he do that in 2004? In fact, in 2004 McCain was front and center at the Republican Convention, remember? He gave a terrific speech calling for the re-election of George W. Bush. He campaigned for Bush a number of times in 2004. How then can anyone expect him to bolt the Republican party in 2008?

I don’t have a third point. I know I should for esthetic/rhetorical reasons. Sorry.

Actually it was just rhetorical excess that made me say McCain would be worse than Hillary. If that is the choice in 2008, I’ll vote for McCain. Ego and all.

Plainslow, they don’t shop at Walmart.

Jan 28, 2006 - 1:43 pm 38. Acheron:

In 1992, in was indeed the case that Ross Perot sank Bush I against the Arkansas Traveller. No Perot, no Democrat dumpster-diving with MzBill today. (We do not understand the Republican establishment’s putting up Bob Dole, the Sage of Kansas, in 1996. I have a journal entry dated April of that year, telling myself “forget it, it’s over”– and it was.)

In a comment somewhere before this, a contributor says that he “sees signs of another (Perot-type) split.” That should interest all, but… whence cometh this Bull Moose with the Noose? Another personality-conflict type, like Ross? Mayhap an interim agglomeration of fiscal conservatives with isolationists or even mass-movement Evangelicals? My antennae twitch continuously, but pick up no pheromones of that nature. Just who, or what, might our colleague have in mind?

Also… most commentary speculating on 2008 ignores a self-evident but neglected factor: That this society –not Government– is run by 58-year olds (see Who’s Who, and many “qualitative economic” studies if you doubt my word). This has the convenient consequence that in any period, America’s reigning Zeitgeist will be dominated by the Class that graduated 36 years previously. Just as 2004 marked the peak of Boomer influence (born 1946, graduated 1968), so 2008 will memorialize the Class of 1972. Still Boomers, but not the quintessential pot-smoking, fornicating, riot-in-the-street Class of ‘68 type Boomers.

Fixated like Teddy on the Supine Sixties, MzBill no doubt believes that the pre-1972 cohort remains numerous enough not to –ahem– abort her candidacy. But I among others do not think she will be able to sequester herself behind walls of snarling aides-de-camp, emerging only like a piece of dandelion-fluff to waft gently o’er political meadows as Media bumble-bees and and hummingbirds buzz and twitter inanities on her behalf.

The reality is: Half the American voting populace considers MzBill a squirrel sandwich. Not just for what she stands for, but for who she is. Absent some ridiculous Republican stupidity, such as nominating Bob Dole redux, I betcha that MzBill would join 1984’s estimable Walter Mondale in winning perhaps one State.

Who would split the right-side vote? What stirrings does one see… ’cause as yet I don’t see any. Giuliani for all his virtues has a bullying, self-righteous side. Dynasty or no, Lord help us, I could get enthusiastic about W’s Florida connection. C’mon, Jeb– spread your wings.

Jan 28, 2006 - 1:50 pm 39. jedrury:

” But I among others do not think she will be able to sequester herself behind walls of snarling aides-de-camp, emerging only like a piece of dandelion-fluff to waft gently o’er political meadows as Media bumble-bees and and hummingbirds buzz and twitter inanities on her behalf. The reality is: Half the American voting populace considers MzBill a squirrel sandwich.”

Well put. Three stars for style and wit.

Hillary cannot hide. Even network moderators of the media get snappy every once in awhile and she does not have the finesse or temperment to slide through a tough examination. The boys and girls on the campaign bus will get fed up with her. She does not wear well.

Jan 28, 2006 - 2:10 pm 40. Alexandra von Maltzan:

All Things Beautiful TrackBack It’s About The 2008 Election Stupid

Jan 28, 2006 - 2:37 pm 41. WichitaBoy:

While Hill does carry a lot of baggage with Bill, I think what a lot of observers miss is that there’s a lot of nostalgia for Bill out there. People remember the “gay ’90’s” fondly as a time when people were having fun, when there weren’t terrorists to worry about, when everybody was getting rich and having a blast spending the “peace dividend”. War was over, it had been banned for good!

There are a lot of people, in short, who would vote for Hill in hopes that Bill would secretly be bringing back the good ol’ days.

As for McCain never damaging Republican interests, what exactly was McCain-Feingold supposed to do?

David, I don’t agree with you, I think the legacy media are far more important than you believe, and will remain so. The blogosphere is something, but not very important in the big picture.

Terrye is completely right, the Republicans are far more vulnerable than they believe. They are extremely vulnerable on exactly the issues she posits and Hillary will enter the fray with health care. She has already started canvassing on that topic here in Boulder.

Also, the Republicans need a real candidate. Giuliani and McCain are really too old, Jeb Bush is a barf, and the rest seem to be either too radical (get rid of Rowe v. Wade) or simply to be gray faceless policy wonks.

Finally, w0tm, a hearty western welcome to Roger’s blog!

Jan 28, 2006 - 5:29 pm 42. flenser:

Looks like McCain is trying to stir up trouble abroad.

See the rebuttal in the last graf.

Jan 28, 2006 - 7:10 pm 43. Sandy P:

It ain’t just the flyover states wich want more abortion restrictions, via Bros. Judd:

From the Grauniad:

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/homeaffairs/story/0,,1697578,00.html

Women demand tougher laws to curb abortions

∑ Poll reveals growing concern over late terminations
∑ Blair under pressure to agree review as MPs urge change

Denis Campbell and Gaby Hinsliff
Sunday January 29, 2006
The Observer

A majority of women in Britain want the abortion laws to be tightened to make it harder, or impossible, for them to terminate a pregnancy.
Evidence of a widespread public demand for the government to further restrict women’s right to have an abortion is revealed in a remarkable Observer opinion poll. The findings have reignited the highly-charged debate on abortion, and increased the pressure on Tony Blair to review the current time limits….

Jan 28, 2006 - 11:20 pm 44. Sandy P:

I will not vote for Maverick or Evita.

Pubbies can beat Hillarycare back.

They have to educate.

Jan 28, 2006 - 11:43 pm 45. rastajenk:

What if Rehnquist hadn’t died, and the swing vote O’Connor was being replaced by Roberts? Do you think the Dems would do all this huffing and puffing about A Critical Time in Our Constitution’s History? If it’s the Kos/MoveOntotheLooneyFringe types driving this, you don’t think they’d lay down for Roberts, do you? Not sure what my point is, except that the pincer move of Roberts and Alito has practically checkmated liberals, and seems incredibly deft on the part of that guy in the Oval Office who’s not supposed to be very smart.

Jan 29, 2006 - 5:40 am 46. w0tm:

How did anyone identify me as being 58? Good guess! One behalf of all of us Baby Boomers, I apologize for the “Revenge of the Boomers” a.k.a. “The Clinton Years”.

I’m also 5th generation Kansan (gggrandfather was allowed in early as a grain miller for the Indians before they opened K.T. for general settlement). I’ve voted for Bob Dole many times, I’ve met him and he’s a heck of a nice guy. But he’s always been “let’s compromise (means “100% our way” to a Dem)” and a product of Kansas good ol’ boy favor tradin’ politics. He truly is the consummate politician that the MSM makes Bill out to be. He called in all his chips in ‘96 and the nomination was his. Each time I voted for senator Dole I did so as the only other choices were D, L or G (Go home). He is a patriotic, honest man who truly believes all Americans desire only the best for our country but that some just have different ideas of how to insure long-term freedom and a good life for all of us. No, that is not “Kansas gullible”. He left here for Washington 40 years ago. That’s “too many years in D.C. gullible”. His “pit bull” image was a product of the MSM BTW.

I agree that if we run a moderate like Dole again (McCain?) then enough conservatives will stay home to insure a (D) victory. I thank senator McCain for his service to our country. He endured more than I ever could. I know that and look up to him. But I also don’t support most of his political beliefs and consider them as being more (D) than (R). Will he remain “a man of honor” as others wrote and remain a Republican to his last day in politics? I hope so!

Rudy Giuliani also is a genuinely decent and ethical man. Some qualities in a person you just can’t hide (or is that mostly just to us out here in cow country?). But, quite honestly, we in “fly over country” hear him express his beliefs and consider him as being to the left of where Nelson Rockefeller was. As we all know, the “Nelson Rockefeller wing” still exists in our party even though some, derisively, call them RINO’s – I don’t, we need all the help we can get! The JFK wing of the Democratic party is down to meeting in a phone both with Joe Lieberman as their leader.

Rudy Giuliani would be a non-starter in most Red States in the primaries. With either McCain or Giuiliani as the Republican candidate, I’d vote for either but the sad truth is too many conservatives would stay home on election day. We of the (R) party too often default to the “we’d rather be right than be (particular office)” from local to national elections. I’m not saying we should EVER be like the Dems where they say and do whatever the focus groups say they want to hear so as to get elected. Then forget it all the day after they’re elected. Has a Dem in any truly contested election ever won by not temporarily positioning him or herself as a “main-stream moderate candidate for everyone”?

Out here, where we buy a horse based on the look in person’s eye and what they’ve done (not said), we’ll be watching to see what John McCain and Rudy Giuliani do (not say) during the next few years to insure we retain the White House long past 2008.

Jan 29, 2006 - 8:23 am 47. markus:

Sorry to come to the party so late. If I understand Roger and others correctly, any substantive concerns about Judge Alito are inherently nothing more than “bloviations”, “red meat for the Daily Kos crowd”, and so on.

Such talk is, I admit, sometimes an effective rhetorical device. Dismiss all objections by one’s political opponents out-of-hand, and redirect debate toward the motives of those opponents, thereby removing any need to ADDRESS THE SUBSTANCE OF THOSE OBJECTIONS.

Objections raised by NONLEFTISTS with substantive doubts about Judge Alito’s suitability for the bench.
Such as the editors of the New Republic, who endorsed Judge Roberts just a few months ago:

http://www.tnr.com/user/nregi.mhtml?i=20060130&s=editorial013006

Or Saint Joseph Liberman:

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/local/state/hc-27014434.apds.m0728.bc-ct–alitjan27,0,3579126.story?coll=hc-headlines-local-wire

Jan 29, 2006 - 10:41 am 48. Roger:

Markus, as is often the case, you misread me. My post was entirely about politics and not about Alito himself.

Jan 29, 2006 - 12:01 pm 49. markus:

Roger: Hillary’s soundbites, Biden’s bloviations, Schumer’s grilling all raise points that should give pause to someone who describes himself as a Roe supporter and a social liberal. Or perhaps upon consideration, not. Instead, I’ve heard from you that Alito is “obviously qualified”, that Dems (only politically, I suppose) are stuipid to disagree, and that Mrs. Alito’s tears reminded you of Mary Jo Kopechne.

I’d respectfully urge you to consider whether your viceral emotional distaste for the foreign policy views of Senate Democrats, and for their often hapless and/or phony show-biz personalities, is skewing your judgement on policy matters in which they may be making some reasonable points.

All: Hillary is actually not all that popular among liberals, to say nothing of leftists. Hell, I know a lot of liberal or leftist women with a complicated or underwhelmed view of her.

My current thinking is that Gore could very make a comeback, as a sort of elder statesman, and get a LOT of traction among the Dem financiers and among voters in the Democratic primaries, based on his post-2000 move to the Left.

You would then have him on the Left, Evan Bayh on right, and Hillary and Mark Warner trying to triangulate as the electible sensible moderates. Except that Hillary’s not that damn electable, and Warner’s a one-term governor. \

On the Republican side, I’m afriad that the independent, cosmopolitan, socially liberal,secular zionist wing of the Republican Party is highly unlikely to get McCain, Giuliani or Rice. More likely, they’ll have to learn to like George Allen. The Electoral college and the two-party system can really be a bitch sometimes.

Jan 29, 2006 - 1:31 pm 50. flenser:

markus

Am I to take it that you regard Alito as not qualified to sit on the Supreme Court?

If so can I get you to present any arguments to support your view?

What, in your opinion, qualifies someone to be a Supreme Court Justice?

Jan 29, 2006 - 2:05 pm 51. jedrury:

Markus:

From Hillary Drive, we almost took a hard left to Alito Way in the present discussion. Oooops, let’s stay on track.

I read your apt comments about the shape of Democratic jockeying for the nomination. I do
not think that the party is going to hand it
to HRC. She will have tons of money but that
will not assure her victory in the face of her negativity rating.

Warner is a one term governor without a standout record. In DC, you can’t turn around without the WashPo proclaiming he is the next Lincoln. But his name recognition can not be very high and the WashPo praise will not resonate out West. Same with Bayh who would put a jitterbug to sleep with his speeches. Gore is formidable enough at least in his own mind to try a run. Edwards is for sure and has run before so he knows the ropes, and of course Kerry is on his way.

Jan 29, 2006 - 2:24 pm 52. markus:

Flenser, a few short months ago, you vowed to never, ever respond to anything I wrote. Keep your word, jackhole.

Jan 29, 2006 - 4:45 pm

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