The man blogging as Spook86 at the In From the Cold blog has an interesting post this evening on the violence in Iraq around the Samarra shrine bombing. Like many, he sees the hand of Zarqawi in this madness. Who am I to disagree? (And I don’t.) But the more interesting part of the Spook’s pronouncements are at the end:
Using information operations to connect Zarqawi to the Samarra attack–based on solid evidence–would turn his tactical success into a strategic defeat, and further undermine the insurgency.Unfortunately, the U.S. has long-standing problems in countering enemy propaganda and information operations. I found this article in an Air Force journal, written more than five years ago, which describes some of our difficulties in overcoming Serb propaganda during Operation Allied Force. It’s a bit long, but take a glance, and see if you find any similarities between what happened in 1999, and what we see in Iraq today.
Until we understand that all forms of public information are a battlespace that must be contested and defended, we will face an uphill battle in winning the struggle for hearts and minds. In football, “Hail Mary” or if you prefer, “Hail Allah” plays should have a low probability of success. Zarqawi’s desperation heave in Samarra can also be deflected, if we use all the tools at our disposal, including information operations.
I know what he means. Having just returned from a few days in Washington, I have the sense that one of the areas our government is weakest in is in the construction of just such “information operations.” They are frankly too square to handle it. I certainly enjoy the whiff of power and the aura of history in DC, but when it comes to thinking “outside the box,” Inside the Beltway is out to lunch. (Okay, not always, but they could use a little Graham Greene and a little Sigmund Freud.)
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14 Comments
1. Roy Lofquist:The main problem is not religion but rather tribalism. Islam is a result, and a complement to, tribal societies. Both Islam and tribalism are long on rules and short on individual liberty.
The schisms of Iraq are not Shia/Sunni/Kurd but rather the affinity of the tribes based upon common religion and geographical proximity.
There is no way to get information to these people and if we could it would be dismissed as heresy a priori.
Feb 23, 2006 - 8:35 pm 2. John Anderson:Communication has always been a problem, albeit I think this administration has been among the worst by too often completing a decision process before letting anyone know there is a process. Part of the problem in this may be “Bush Derangement Syndrome” (eg, a couple of weeks ago, Sen. Pelosi once again – after five years of presumably knowing better – that Bush said the Iraqi danger was imminent in the famous speech).
It is far from a unique difficulty. I have long thought that Israel, for example, should hire a New York PR agency.
Feb 23, 2006 - 9:08 pm 3. RBMN:From:
Al-Mahdi Army / Active Religious Seminary / Al-Sadr’s Group
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/al-sadr.htm
excerpt:
And where did this 12th Imam “the Mahdi, or the Hidden Imam” disappear from? The mosque at Samarra, in 878.
Feb 23, 2006 - 9:32 pm 4. Kevin Peters:Roger:
Danish cartoons send the Arab street into a frenzy. A historic Mosque is blown up and Muslims are killed. Will the Muslim world finally rise up and riot, and will they go after the people who bankrole the thugs who insulted their God in a much more drastic fashion? Of course not.The Jeeewwwwssss made us do it, kill them.
Feb 23, 2006 - 10:10 pm 5. jedrury:The following clause in the article invites a comment: “until we understand that all forms of public information are a battlespace that must be contested and defended.”
And, just when the US/CIA does exactly that; by paying for, or, hiring journalists to write favorable articles in the Iraqi press, the Congress and the MSM cries “holy hell” about the infringement of the right to free expression and freedom of the press. Lest we forget: a journalist is a whore who never takes her clothes off.
This article makes a point where there is none to be made. Anyone who believes that the Americans are not doing exactly that, should read a few spy novels or take John Le Carre 101 in some English Lit course.
Feb 23, 2006 - 10:26 pm 6. Charlie (Colorado):JE, there’s a lot of difference between “doing it” and “doing it well.”
Feb 24, 2006 - 1:47 am 7. Yeshooroon:Roger, you’re absolutely correct on the ’square’ part. Communication is an art form of which the military never fully mastered.
We forget, Holy-wood was once on our side. John Wayne, Bob Hope, etc. and the list goes on. Since Vietnam and because a Republican runs this war, forget it. They will not back it.
We have a few who help in entertainment of the troops. But we lack their help in getting out a coherant view of the west and also countering lies of Islamic propagandist.
But Roger – how many people have seen Memri? And would they care?
Unless you get real media talent involved, the military will not understand how to utilize the art.
Here’s a challenge, take any number of MEMRI videos to top elites in Hollywood today. Ask them to watch it and see their reaction. Then ask if they’re willing to oppose it in some form. What do you think will happen? Will Reiner do anything?
Will Spielberg?
Make sure they know Roger of items prior to 9/11 if you can. They spew hatred everyday against us and Israel.
Can PJM do this and do you think its a legitimate thing to do? To get actors, producers and directors reactions to such hatred? I’d love to see their faces after watching some of the hate-filled speeches.
Feb 24, 2006 - 5:31 am 8. Yeshooroon:We do not win this long battle without the whole nation pulling together. And as long as former Presidents and VP’s are going around getting large amounts of cash to criticize our current Presidential administration – we’re fighting two wars, three with Hollywood and the media.
Feb 24, 2006 - 5:35 am 9. jedrury:Charlie:
The abilities of state side Americans to opine
Feb 24, 2006 - 6:07 am 10. doc99:on the quality of news in Iraq produced or manufactured by the US/CIA is extremely limited.
One major problem in the information war is that everytime the US gets their story into the local media, Al Sabah for example, the media back home, the NY Slimes, the Washington Compost, etc, proclaims, “Payola!” One of our biggest enemies in this war … is US.
Feb 24, 2006 - 6:18 am 11. waterdragon52:I’m not so sure this is a Zarqawi operation. He was told off big-time by Zawahiri to stop attacking Iraqis whether they were Shia or Sunni because the bloodiness was offending Sunni tribesmen who were either turning on A-Q directly or helping the Coalition forces.
I think Iran has more to gain from this than anyone else, and, already, calls have come out from the Islamic Regime’s lapdog Hezbullah for a withdrawal of Coalition troops so al-Sadr’s Mehdi army can secure the situation. Just think, Iran would love nothing better than to refocus world attention from its nuclear project and divert its citizens’ attention from the theocratic police state regime’s oppressive nature and financial ineptitude. Also, the Thug-in-Chief, Ahmedinejad, not only wants to hasten the arrival of the Mahdi, he wants the Mahdi to reveal himself in Iran, so let’s just get any competing holy sites out of the way.
And here’s another reason why it may not be A-Q, courtesy of the Austin Bay blogsite. The A-Q franchise is not all brotherly love and commitment to unwinnable causes:
AL QAEDA DIVIDED?
Call it Adlís complaintñ a letter from an Al Qaeda terrorist damning Bin Laden as a poor leader and strategist. Bin Laden comes off as aloof, arrogant and blind. (This column from 2004 noted Bin Ladenís elitism and ìrich kidî legacy.) The letter dates from June 13, 2002. The West Point centerís synopsis says Abd-al-Halim Adl ìchallenges the leadership of Osama Bin Laden and accuses him of being close-minded and oblivious to the great harm suffered by Al-Qaíida in recent months.î
Indeedñby June 2002 Al Qaeda has had a tough six months. The fanatics have suffered terrible losses. Adl writes his friend Mukhtar:
STOP RUSHING INTO ACTION AND TAKE TIME OUT TO CONSIDER ALL THE FATAL AND SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS THAT HAVE AFFLICTED US DURING A PERIOD OF NO MORE THAN SIX MONTHS. THOSE OBSERVING OUR AFFAIRS WONDER WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO US. PREVIOUSLY, THEIR ERRORS WERE NOT DISCOVERED UNTIL SUCCESSFUL OPERATIONS HAD BEEN COMPLETED. BUT TODAY WE ARE EXPERIENCING ONE SETBACK AFTER ANOTHER AND HAVE GONE FROM MISFORTUNE TO DISASTER. DURING (TN: THE PAST) SIX MONTHS, IT HAS BECOME APPARENT TO THE OBSERVER THAT THERE IS A NEW HAND THAT IS MANAGING AFFAIRS AND THAT IS DRIVING FORCEFULLY; EVERY TIME IT FALTERS, IT GETS UP AND RUSHES AGAIN, WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING OR AWARENESS. IT RUSHES TO MOVE WITHOUT VISION, AND IT IS IN A HURRY TO ACCOMPLISH ACTIONS THAT NOW REQUIRE PATIENCE BECAUSE OF THE SECURITY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT HE WHOLE WORLD. THIS HAND DOES NOT PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING, AS IF WE WILL NOT BE SUMMONED TO ACCOUNT BEFORE ALLAH FOR ALL THESE SOULS, THIS BLOOD AND THIS MONEY (TN: THAT HAS BEEN EXPENDED)
That hand is Bin Laden. (I am not sure why this particular letter appeared as all capitals. The other ones Iíve copied did not.)
Another excerpt:
PERHAPS, BROTHER ABU MATTAR HAS WARNED YOU THAT HIS OPINION HAS CHANGED A LOT SINCE HE GOT OUT OF HIS PREVIOUS SITUATION. HE HELD ME RESPONSIBLE BY SAYING TO ME: FEAR ALLAH BECAUSE YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE AMONG THE BRETHREN WHO IS NOW IN THE EXTERIOR AND THE WHOLE MATTER IS ON YOUR SHOULDERS. I HAD THIS MATTER ON MY MIND, BUT I AVOIDED IT BECAUSE THE TEACHER (TN: BIN-LADIN) CORRESPONDS DIRECTLY WITH YOU (AND THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, IS HIS ABSOLUTE HABIT THAT HE WILL NOT ABANDON. IF SOMEONE OPPOSES HIM, HE IMMEDIATELY PUTS FORWARD ANOTHER PERSON TO RENDER AN OPINION IN HIS SUPPORT, CLINGING TO HIS OPINION AND TOTALLY DISREGARDING THOSE AROUND HIM, SO THERE IS NO ADVICE NOR NOTHING) . THE CONSEQUENCES THAT YOU SEE ARE NOTHING, BUT AN OUTCOME OF THIS ONRUSH. VERY REGRETTABLY, HAD I TALKED BEFORE THE DISASTERS OCCURRED -AND I DID TALK -I WOULD HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A COVETOUS PERSON, BUT NOW THAT THE MATTER HAS BECOME A REALITY, I HAVE ABSOLVED MY CONSCIENCE. HE (TN: THE TEACHER) PUSHES YOU RELENTLESSLY AND WITHOUT CONSIDERATION AS IF HE HAS NOT HEARD THE NEWS AND AS IF HE DOES NOT COMPREHEND THE EVENTS. TO ABSOLVE MY CONSCIENCEB EFORE ALLAH, AND TO ANNOUNCE MY INNOCENCE IN FRONT OF ALLAH, I SAY TODAY WE MUST COMPLETELY HALT ALL EXTERNAL ACTIONS UNTIL WE SIT DOWN AND CONSIDER THE DISASTER WE CAUSED.
Another slash at Bin Laden:
MY BELOVED BROTHER, STOP ALL FOREIGN ACTIONS, STOP SENDING PEOPLE TO CAPTIVITY, STOP DEVISING NEWO PERATIONS, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ORDERS COME OR DO NOT COME FROM ABU-ABDALLA (TN: BIN-LADEN). OUR ADHERENTS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN US AND IN OUR ABILITY TO MANAGE THE ACTION, AND THEY WONDER, WHAT HAS BEFALLEN US.
Abu Abdalla (also Abu Abdullah) refers to Bin Laden.
Losing Afghanistan shook at least one of Al Qaedaís faithful. The loss of Afghanistan suggested Al Qaeda did not have the mandate of Allah. This is why the strategic offense ó taking the war to Al Qaeda, waging war in what A Qaeda calls ìMuslim heartlandsî ó is absolutely necessary.
Feb 24, 2006 - 8:20 am 12. markus:Kevin Peters — “Will the Muslim world finally rise up and riot…”
Well, now that they’ve started rioting…you feel better?
And as we all watch more shit the fan in Iraq, yet again, and more innocent people die, here’s a couple nice quotes to keep in mind:
“It’s untidy, and freedom’s untidy,” he said, jabbing his hand in the air. “Free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things. They’re also free to live their lives and do wonderful things.”
–Donald Rumsfeld, April 12, 2003
“As far as Iím concerned—the war in Iraq has already been won. We are only dealing with the cleanup work.”
–David Thomson, Feb. 19, 2006
Feb 24, 2006 - 11:12 am 13. jedrury:Markus:
I am sure that your quotes are real. But does that somehow makes them foolish at this time?
History is messy, freedom is untidy. All of this is true.
So does the malicious senseless destruction of a once beautiful holy mosque in Baghdad and the resulting violence render all these statements and comments foolish, absurd?
I think not. Nor do you. Argumentative gamesmanship only trivializes the importance of these events
Feb 24, 2006 - 2:13 pm 14. Kevin Peters:Markus:
I am not talking about the Sunni-Shite intercine warfare. I am talking about the non-Iraq Muslim governments and street that found cartoons worthy of violent and state sponsored riots and diplomatic protests. but a bunch of “insurgents’ blow up an important historical Mosque and there are no protests against the governments and individuals that fund these “freedom fighters”, to qoute one fat American filmaker. It makes there protests about the assault on the dignity of their religion seem very hollow. The west prints cartoons and they go ballistic. Their own brothers destroy their Holy sites and kill innocent people at prayer and they seem to shrug their shoulders. Don’t you recognize the rank hypocracy of their supposed reverence for their religion.
Feb 25, 2006 - 2:13 pm