Okay, here are my picks for how the Academy will vote in this year’s Oscars. NOTE: These picks do not reflect my own votes, which only in a few cases correspond to how I think the results will turn out.

Picture – Brokeback Mountain
Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Actress – Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line
Director – Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Original screenplay – Paul Haggis – Crash
Adapted screenplay – Larry McMurty & Diana Ossana – Brokeback Mountain

I am fairly certain of the above. Following are hunches:

Supporting actor – Matt Dillon – Crash
Supporting actress – Rachelle Weisz – Constant Gardener
Cinematography – Rodrigo Prieto – Brokeback Mountain
Editing – Michael Kahn – Munich (Academy loves Kahn)
Art Direction – Memoirs of a Geisha
Costume Design – Arianne Phillips – Walk the Line (perhaps wishful thinking here – loved costumes in this film)
Score – Gustavo Santaolalla – Brokeback Mountain
Song – Over the Rainbow – (okay, that’s another year – “Travelin’ Thru” – Transamerica – this is a wild guess)
Sound – King Kong
Sound Editing – King Kong
Visual effects – King Kong
Best feature animation – Wallace & Grommet in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (Madeleine’s choice)

I don’t have picks in the foreign language or documentary categories because I didn’t see enough of them this year to vote (a good Academy rule).

You can mock me and others on Oscar Night on Pajamas Media/Mondo Hollywood ^[1] where I will be live-blogging the event along with The Manolo, Gay Patriots East and West, Jeff Goldstein and other surprise guests.