Iranian posturing suggests the Mullahs are anticipating a military response. How soon is a matter of debate. Yet their preparations for a response means they are not changing their course. Short of Russia or China threatening a nuclear response in defense of their ally, we are heading down the road towards military confrontation.

The Iranian military recently began military exercises designed to exemplify their capabilities to respond to a Western military attack on their nuclear installations. Maneuvers began this week and are expected to last through next week. Conducted as a measure to inflict the greatest possible pain on the West, the Iranian military prepared by simulating gaining control over the Straight of Hormoutz, a narrow waterway used to transport 80% of Arabian oil exports. Experts widely anticipate Iranian mining of the straight as well as unconventional attacks on passing tanker ships utilizing small vessels packed with explosives.

More troubling was Friday’s test launch of a Fajr 3 missile. The Iranian government claims that the missile is capable of carrying multiple warheads and that it has radar avoiding capabilities. Clearly, the test and consequent statements are meant to intimidate any power seeking to attack its nuclear installations.

It is highly questionable that such an indigenously developed missile can carry multiple warheads with independent targeting abilities and utilize radar avoiding technology. Unless Iran has received significant assistance from Russia, who as far as we know, does not possess stealth aircraft, this domestic missile development is a scam. Further, Western technology is dependent on tracking the launch phase, rendering any ’stealth’ technology obsolete. The measure is clearly designed to intimidate Israel and the West from launching military raids on Iran. Considering the rogue regime’s refusal to halt enrichment of uranium, the Iranian leadership is obviously anticipating military responses to their intransigence.

What will likely receive little media attention is the aftermath of the Iranian exercises. The 20,000 or so troops participating in the posturing, will probably not return back to their barracks once the maneuvers are completed. The ‘exercise’ is more of a cover for permanently refortifying the Straight of Hormoutz in preparation for possible bombardment.

The situation in Iran is coming to a head. The Pentagon clearly timed the release of evidence collected in Iraq, suggesting Russia was not on the side of America leading up and during the Iraq conflict, attempting to cast suspicion on the current Russian political position on Iran. The Iranians have leaked information on a possible upcoming nuclear test, albeit of a non deliverable weapon, as a means to stave off any plans for Western air strikes and this latest military exercise is designed to plant second thoughts in Western military contingencies. If the Iranians expect to be attacked, likely, the will be.

As inability to reach a global consensus on how to respond to the Iranian nuclear program persists, options at our disposal become more and more limited. Arguing against tougher international measures by the Russians and the Chinese, both governing significant economic interests in Iran, the two nations are increasing the likelihood of a military response.

If Russia and China eventually will back off, remains to be seen but as things stand today, the Iranians are preparing for counter measures in the event that they are hit, suggesting that the Mullahs consider it a very real possibility.

/sarcasm

This is yet another piece of worthless paper that will be ignored before the toner is dry.

“When a coalition of the willing takes action…”

Sometimes I wonder about this place. I’m not sure if you all had noticed, but despite all the fantasic warblings of those who still think the Iraq fiasco was all worth it, a clear majority thinks it was a mistake. Now, even if it were possible to generate from thin air the half a million or so troops that’d we need to take Iran and exercise MINIMUM (see, Iraq) control over the country, most Americans just wouldn’t accept it. Fool me once, you have to wait 30 years to fool me again. And no, bombing Iran won’t change the regime or convince them of anything. Sorry. Have you noticed who you’re dealing with?

So the UN’s weak kneed proclamations are all we get, because it is the case, as the Iranians well know, that not the UN, US or anyone else is an any position to make a threat they could actually back up.

I believe most astute observers have long ago written the U.N. off in its current state as having any reasonable capability to help with human rights, natural disaster, nuclear control, or any other change role.

While it may give Iran a false sense of security that there is a lot of time before military action, that can be used to help the US gain the element of surprise as much as is possible.

“But even though the statement is not legally enforceable, the talks have been extremely sensitive because of the statement’s larger significance.”

- “In Moscow on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated his stance that Moscow would not support the use of force to solve the Iranian nuclear problem.

“As many of our European and Chinese colleagues have stated more than once, any ideas involving the use of force or pressure in resolving the issue are counterproductive and cannot be supported,” Lavrov said.

I think that-“This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Churchill Speech given at the Lord Mayor’s Luncheon, Mansion House, London, November 10, 1942