Roger L. Simon

April 2nd, 2006 9:58 pm

What “end of history”?

Francis Fukuyama’s famous pronouncement, which he now says was misunderstood, seems nuttier every day as Iranian revelations increase. Today we learn the mullahs have super-duper underwater missiles (or say they do). We have already learned they have cruise missiles from China and a better intelligence service than ours (that’s not hard). We are moving into a period of history that may make the Iraq War look like a minor playground dustup.

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23 Comments

1. DanM:

The thing about those “super-duper underwater missiles” is that you have to get closed enough to fire them. I don’t see the Iranians being lauded in Janes as a new naval superpower. The idea that they can take on our Navy is laughable at best.

Apr 2, 2006 - 11:04 pm 2. flicka47:

I guess that you must have missed the Iranian announcement that they also have a “super duper ballistic missle that is undetectable by radar”?

So, I am guessing that along with their “super duper MIRV”, and their “super duper torpedo” that goes thru the water “undetected” at speeds 4 times as fast as any other country’s,

they have ALSO just “sucessfully tested a super duper”,but better,Harry Potter Cloak of Invisibility!!

Apr 3, 2006 - 12:32 am 3. exguru:

Our present CIA is probably the biggest single waste of money in the federal government. It could be completely disbanded tomorrow without adverse consequences.

Apr 3, 2006 - 1:36 am 4. AbbaGav:

Eh. Not so impressed. For a country that has aspirations of nuclear weaponry, this blustery posturing seems like overkill. Now if they should ever announce they’ve gotten their hands on a Zionist death ray, then all bets are off.

Apr 3, 2006 - 5:22 am 5. thirdfinger:

A torpedo traveling at over 200 MPH through the water that evades SONAR. Undetectable submarines. Damn, these guys have kidnapped Tom Swift and are making him give up all of his secrets or maybe its Johnny Quest and Hadji. Could the Atomic Plane be next?

I realize I mock at my own risk but these guys should make up crap that is believable if they want to really scare somebody.

Apr 3, 2006 - 5:24 am 6. mrp:

The Skhval torpedo is real enough (a test of a second-generation Skhval is thought to have sunk the Kursk) and it appears that the Russkies have transferred the technology to the Iranian government.

via rantburg.com:

UPI Hears

Apr 3, 2006 - 5:49 am 7. David Thomson:

ìOur present CIA is probably the biggest single waste of money in the federal government. It could be completely disbanded tomorrow without adverse consequences.î

It turns out that Daniel Patrick Moynihan was right to encourage us to disband the CIA. He was speaking about taking this action some twenty years ago. The late scholar was not always right—but he was in this instance.

Apr 3, 2006 - 7:31 am 8. Fausta:

The idea that they can take on our Navy is laughable at best.
I agree, but I don’t think that is their purpose.

Iran is a terrorist state. Iran’s also forging stronger ties to Cuba and Venezuela, which reportedly include the sale of long-range missiles to Chavez that would be transported on Venezuelan-flagged vessels traveling to Cuba. Chavez could also bankroll any ballistic missiles sales to Cuba, which is

Apr 3, 2006 - 7:31 am 9. Fausta:

(add to 2d paragraph)
which is less than 100 miles from the Continental US.

Apr 3, 2006 - 7:35 am 10. Mark Razak:

What is missing in most of the media`s writing on Iran is how Iran is able to develop all of this new technology and hardware. Has the Islamic Republic managed to create a new scientific and engineering culture, a revolutionary culture that has unleashed a new dynamism? Or is the explanation that Russia and China have been actively abetting and assisting in Iran`s weapons programs. The question now is the motivation. Is the assistance pure greed or something more ominous? With all of the “noise“ that has been emulating from China over the past decade I cannot believe that China`s role in the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world is out of stupidity or greed. Considering what the consequences for the US and its interests would be if an overconfident Iran used its new terrible toys, then, I believe, that the US must consider Russia and China enemies. China`s aims, in particular, must be viewed as unremitting hostile. (This, of course, begs the question that if China is actively and aggressively undermining the US in the Middle East, what has she been doing with Hugo down in South America?)

This country is heading for a fall if she continues to fail to name her enemies and adjust her policies, i.e., trade, accordingly. The problem with this country is that unless your name is Saddam or bin Laden there are few consequences to being our enemy.

Apr 3, 2006 - 9:03 am 11. DanM:

Fausta,

Thank you for advancing the discussion. For anyone over 45 years old, this is starting to look like the Cold War revisited. Now, why do we believe that China and Russia aren’t up to their old game…? Who says that the game was over after the wall came down? Us? A bit smug, I think.

Iran and the ME are ABSOLUTELY strategic for China and Russia. China’s current societal changes demand the supply of fuel. Russia has always used the ME as a counterpoint to U.S. hegemony.

From an Iranian point of view, what better way to stall an inevitable war than place harassers at our flanks – Venezuela/Cuba. (I’ve mentioned this before, but on a smaller scale in Iraq) – OK, maybe a bit Tin-Hattish, but I see a pattern that surely others see. And Fausta – it looks like you see it also.

China AND Russia are not our friends. They never have been – ever. They are the same enemy, just a bit more technologically advanced thanks to us…. We’ll see how the cards are dealt.

Apr 3, 2006 - 12:49 pm 12. Fausta:

DanM,
I admit that at first glance the Venezuela/Iran/Cuba links do look maybe a bit Tin-Hattish, but the thing is, unless one follows the news from those specific 3 over a period of time, it’s easy to ignore them.
For instance, here are three articles from sources that are not what one would call members of the vast-right-wing-conspiracy:
Al-Jazeera: Economic war on the U.S.? Iran, Venezuela join forces
Iran Press News: The Islamic regime assists Venezuela with its nuclear program
Payvan’d Iran News: Iran, Venezuela sign 21 MoUs on expansion of mutual cooperation
(if you follow my links in this post there’s more there, with apologies for the shameless self-promotion).

As for China in Latin America, don’t miss this article from almost exactly a year ago: China’s Foray Into Latin America.
All the while, China’s positioned itself very comfrotably in Panama, for which I thank Jimmy Carter.

Apr 3, 2006 - 2:16 pm 13. DanM:

Fausta,

From your Payvand link – Venezuela’s Alvarez described Tehran-Caracas ties as “strategic,” and added that the two sides would continue to explore ways of expanding ties based on mutual respect and cooperation.

He pointed out that mutual relations were currently not just “trade and economic” but extended more importantly to the two countries’ cooperation toward establishing a just world.

Indeed – establishing a just world….

To forward the Tin-Hat perspective, do you get that eye-brow raising reflexive twitch when you hear news like that? Or do you reach for the Thorazene and mumble uncontrollably like I do? :-)

Apr 3, 2006 - 2:37 pm 14. Fausta:

Or do you reach for the Thorazene and mumble uncontrollably like I do? :-)
LOL

The “just world” is another variation of the axis of good meme (another al-Jazeera article) that Hugo’s been jammering about for the past 3-4 years.

Since he originally included Venezuela, Cuba and Brazil in the AOG, and Brazil isn’t exactly playing his game, I guess he’s had to expand and now says
All are welcome to join. The leaders of Hamas among them.

Additionally, “just world” has the advantage that it sounds wonderful to those who love charismatic-leaders-helping-the-poor-offering-free-health-care-education-adult-literacy-and-job-training-initiatives-that-help-millions-of-[insert country name here].

Apr 3, 2006 - 3:57 pm 15. Sonic:

Any time one power on the planet gets hegemony it produces an alliance of other powers that eventually overcome it.

Read some history.

Thats why Fukiyama was so wrong in his “end of history” idea, and also why those who do not see that America is heading for a fall are also in for a big surprise.

Apr 3, 2006 - 6:27 pm 16. Luther McLeod:

In your dreams Sonic. This is not 1st century Rome. Eventually “they” will succeed in pissing off a super-majority of this country. When that happens, we will have the guts and the nuts to take care of business. Not because we wish to rule the world, but because we know we offer the world something better. No matter leftist beliefs. Don’t forget, we do have the capability to destroy the world several times over, but yet, can you imagine an act which would cause us to do that? Can Iran precipitate that? I hope not. So should you.

Apr 3, 2006 - 7:05 pm 17. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

We shouldn’t be too hasty to dismiss Iranian technological capabilities. There are a lot of Iranians, the society has been ahead of Arab societies for some time, and they have sent plenty of smart folks to good schools outside Iran.

As an old submarine hunter, with a decent background in physics, I too thought the super-fast torpedo was a Tom Clancy fiction – but it isn’t. It turns out that a fast enough torpedo creates a cavitation bubble with the whole torpedo inside. This dramatically reduces friction. And as has been mentioned, the Ruskies do have this technology (do we? probably not).

As for the stealthy, MIRVed missile, I am far more suspicious. Stealth is hard to do, and so is accurate MIRVing. However, a lot of this stuff gets easier with time.

It’s getting pretty clear that our strategic position is under dangerous assault. The Russians and Chinese at a minimum, are not our friends. They have committed hostile acts… e.g. the Russians giving Saddam’s government our war plans and force dispositions right before the 2003 invasion, and the Chinese giving Pakistan the Islamic atomic bomb. The plans for the bomb turned over by Libya were, as far as I know, written in Chinese.

When you add Venezuela to the mix, things start looking grim. Just when Cuba was finally ready to self destruct, here comes an oil rich nasty, right here in our own hemisphere – propping up Cuba, dealing with terrorist states, and generally looking like a serious threat to our security, in this age of WMD-enhanced terrorism.

We got big troubles, bubba. We are going to have to deal with Iran fairly quickly (they are already killing our soldiers in Iraq), and do our best to replace the Venezuelan government before it becomes a new, rich seat of anti-American terror, and arms itself with an Iranian-supplied deterrent force that checkmates us.

Apr 3, 2006 - 7:11 pm 18. rocketsbrain:

American Rock & Roll as a Strategic Weapon in the GWOT

To Roger and All:

I couldn’t agree more that we are entering a very dangerous time in the GWOT.

BTW I’m still in awe. I just got my first Instalanche re my piece on the new music video, Bush Was Right.

See my comment welcoming Instapundit’s readers on what we can collectively do in the Blogos to loose the Army of Davids.

We don’t have to sit idly by while the Mad Mullahs go nuclear seeking to bring about Armageddon. We can cause their house of cards to collapse.

We have the power at our fingertips to do this for the first time in history.

Read More

Apr 3, 2006 - 8:39 pm 19. DanM:

John,

So you were a target? ;-) Agree with your caution, but they still have to show themselves to launch and I’d be surprised if we let them get off the dock. But, then again we seem to always react rather than act. We’ll see.

Apr 3, 2006 - 8:41 pm 20. Sonic:

” do have the capability to destroy the world several times over”

But not the capablity to occupy a nation of 26 million people, after Iraq can you seriously argue that you could occupy Iran, Pakistan or China?

You could pull the suicide bomber strategy, but that is not victory, no matter how much the world has “pissed off a super-majority of this country”

Anyway leaving that aside, interesting report here on Iran, not a pretty read.

http://www.iranbodycount.org/

Apr 3, 2006 - 9:00 pm 21. DanM:

We got a broken tag somewhere? Or is it just me?

Apr 3, 2006 - 9:06 pm 22. Luther McLeod:

Who said anything about occupying?” Who said anything about “suicide mission?” Not me. To paraphrase Yamamoto, you should worry about the “sleeping giant.”

As to your link, why am I not surprised by the conclusions of that particular group.

Apr 4, 2006 - 3:10 pm 23. OJ:

If you really want to know about the supercaviating technology, its limitations and applications, read this:

http://diodon349.com/Kursk-Memorial/Warpdrive_underwater.htm

Apr 4, 2006 - 4:36 pm

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