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We are seeing the fruits of Ariel Sharon’s strategy – Palestinian controlled Gaza is being treated, properly, as a sovereign country which engaged in acts of war against Israel (the firing of rockets, and the operation which captured the soldier).

Israel’s dual actions of buzzing Assad’s house, and literally firing a missile through the office window of Gaza’s leader seem aimed at making sure the terror leaders understand the wrong actions against Israel will have unpleasant permanent results.

If Debka is right, and Hezbollah is ready to fight, things could get more dramatic. Hezbollah is an agent of Iran, operating with Syrian assistance and permission. It reportedly has thousands of fighters on Israel’s northern border, and thousands of rockets and missiles, some of the chemically armed and some with substantial range.

If it uses those weapons, Israel may retaliate by retaking southern Lebanon, or by attacking Syria directly – killing Assad and destroying Syrian strategic targets such as their significant SCUD missile capability and their economic and military infrastructure.

Meanwhile, who knows what happens with regard to Iran.

This could all get very hairy, very quickly. However, I do not expect Hezbollah to attack. That would probably cost Iran it’s cats paw in Lebanon, as Israel would find it necessary to end that threat once and for all, by major military force.

Roger:
I hope that Israel continues to attack and end the charade of the millitant wing excuse. For decades palestinian leaders have hid behind these “wings” as if they are seperate autonomous groups that act by themselves. Half the time they operate out of the same bank accouints and are simply corporate names used to avoid reponsibility. Arafat paid the Al aqsa martyrs brigade out of the same funds that the official military groups were paid from but the press acted as if the palestinian government bore no responsibility for their actions. Now we hear about the Hamas group operating out of Damascus and the press treats them as a seperate entity. They are only seperate in regards to the press, the Israeli’s know that they are all united. This fantasy is simply a tool of deception for the western press so they can pretend that the “moderate’ wings act out of good faith and can be portrayed as seeking peace. I think the IDF should set up a militant wing and then feign ignorance and shock when the bombs go off.

The other thing that Sharon’s strategy accomplished was to get the settlers off the battlefield. Israel has much more freedom to act without having the settlements used as hostages.

Yes, it’s going to get hairy, but it’s hard to predict in what way. The Palestinians excel at belligerence and provocation. They want Israel to overreact, but all sides seem to have forgotten the usefulness of a well-planned overreaction. It’s a dangerous form of brinksmanship.