While others blither on, Wretchard continues to write the most interesting analysis of the war, in or out of the blogosphere. He should be required reading for mainstream media columnists, although it might make them anxious to encounter thinking on a level so much more complex than theirs. He is the only writer I know of publicly taking the position that the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah strongholds in South Lebanon is being successful (and he has interesting reasons). The stunning conventionality of what you hear on television now is mind-numbing. The only person I can bear to listen to is Newt Gingrich because he talks fast. Watching that English deadhead (Hunt?) on Fox last night mindlessly repeating Lebanese government figures (straight from Hezbollah?) on the number of dead civilians, dividing up Hezbollah soldiers and “civilians” unquestiongingly with the exact stats someone told him, was almost comic. Where does Roger Ailes get these people?
Wretchard, at least, thinks for himself. Speaking of which, I will go out on a small limb and say this morning’s report from the Israeli cabinet meeting – to wit, they do not intend to extend the war – is, if not complete disinformation, completely irrelevant. Why would the Israeli government telegraph their intentions at this moment?
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16 Comments
1. DanM:“The only person I can bare to listen to is Next Gingrich because he talks fast.”
Roger, That is the best analysis of the MSM I have heard in a long time. (Chuckling makes it hard to type)
Was “Next” a typo? Or, was it a cunningly accurate description of Newt?
Jul 27, 2006 - 9:53 am 2. Terrye:Roger:
I heard that report on Fox as well. I also noticed that the next reporter made a point of saying no one really knows how many people have been killed or who they are.
It is like watching the Katrina coverage all over again.
Jul 27, 2006 - 10:47 am 3. jedrury:Wretchard’s report is brilliant and, despite his concession, no more speculative than what you see on CNN or NBC. Since when have Anderson Cooper or Brian Williams or Andrea Mitchell confessed to speculation. His first paragraph re: need for a quality fighting forces can not be called speculation. The role of disinformation in war time is understandable except to our American media. Targeting Beirut to confuse the enemy and disorient command and control in South Lebanon
Jul 27, 2006 - 11:04 am 4. Ron:is genius. Issuing a phony press release about the intentions of the IDF not to move deeper and northward is possible. Logical to believe that there will no ceasefire soon with the Condi shuffle in Rome yesterday. All good thinking; decisions made by realists. To really behead Hesbollah takes time and brains.
If you don’t have armor, you don’t have artillery and you don’t control the air, you shouldn’t be in a/the war. Hezbollah has death cultists who can’t wait to jump in front of a Jew’s bullet or catch a 155mm round with their teeth so that they can get to their 72 panting women. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has already fled the battle field and is hiding out in Damascus like a rat while his men are marytring themselves for glory and sex. What was it that W.C. Fields use to say about suckers?
Jul 27, 2006 - 11:11 am 5. VRWconspiracy:I had just read Wretchard’s latest thoughts before checking in here on Roger’s site. I always check with Wretchard on these issues as he is like a brilliant searchlight amongst so many dim bulbs. Aside from the strategy he imputes to the Israelis, he seems to have some notion of the internal politics and rifts within Hezbollah and their relations with their terror master’s — Syria and particularly, Iran. I hope he is right. And I hope president Bush keeps the rope-a-dope going to let Israel finish the job.
Jul 27, 2006 - 1:07 pm 6. Doug S.:Wretchard is one of the wonders of the blogosphere, and despite his disclaimer, his analysis really does make a lot of sense. Forget the impressionistic maundering of the MSM, the facts are that the IDF has the numbers and the firepower, and they’re a pretty darn good regular military. As Ron says, if you stand and fight them without material parity, you will get pounded. If we had as accurate a read of Hezbollah casualties as we do of IDF casualties right now, I’d bet that Wretchard’s take would become blindingly obvious.
Looks like a couple of high-ranking Hezbollah field commanders decided to fight to the death in their village strongholds. That’s a decision you make when you know you can’t really win, but you want the enemy to pay a price for victory. It’s how the Japanese fought the last two years of WWII, knowing that they couldn’t take the offensive, but they could make the Americans pay for Saipan, Okinawa, Iwo Jima. It’s ugly, but if you know how to read the signs, you understand who’s winning and who’s losing.
As regards not telegraphing one’s intentions, the AP report (thanks, PJM!) that Israel is calling up 30,000 reservists would seem to contradict the cabinet’s claim that they won’t step up their operations.
Jul 27, 2006 - 1:08 pm 7. David Thomson:ìLogical to believe that there will no ceasefire soon with the Condi shuffle in Rome yesterday.î
The Bush administration realizes that the Israelis are dealing with dedicated Jew haters. This is their true motivation and not the silly Marxist tinged nonsense that they are ìfighting for self determination and economic betterment.î Thus, these thugs must be either killed or jailed. Anything less is simply a waste of time and effort.
Will Iran and Syria be hesitant to rearming the Muslim militants? This is a question which cannot be avoided. Hezbollah cannot be allowed a rest period to regain its strength. This evil organization must be permanently weakened to justify the current struggle.
Jul 27, 2006 - 1:32 pm 8. kparker:DanM,
“Next Gingrich” is nothing as a typo, nothing at all, compared to “bare to listen”!
Sorry, Roger, that’s not a pretty picture at all…
Jul 27, 2006 - 2:58 pm 9. Roger:No, it’s not. Fixed. Too much multi-tasking going on here!
Jul 27, 2006 - 3:22 pm 10. dougf:I don’t know.
There having got that out of the way, I guess it’s safe to hazard an uninformed opinion.
Unless you want to just go to ‘Total War’ part of the effort must be on the ‘image front’. I don’t see how failing to take 2 towns just inside the Lebanese border, can be considered as part of a ’successful’ campaign. It does not matter that the Hezbollah trash are now dead. What matters is the ‘image’ of Israeli forces being unable to CRUSH them, without throwing the kitchen sink at them, and taking serious casualties. Arab reality bears as much relationship to ‘real reality, as I do to having Bill Gates bank account.
I know what Wretchard says, but I have this feeling that the IDF and its political masters are casualty adverse . I don’t think you can ‘win’ by fearing casualties. If you don’t want to fight’ on the ground’, then break out the BIG stuff and simply obliterate EVERYTHING in sight. Israel seems to be dithering between two methods, and succeeding at neither.
What Israel is courting here is absolutely the worst of all worlds.
A. Failure to ’significantly’ hurt Hezbollah in a military or political sense.
B. The taking of ‘too many’ casualties for the small gains actually realised.
C. The FAILURE to WIN decisively. Thus creating a template for future battles which will be even more devastating.
D. The demonstration to all who want to observe of the very finite limits of ‘air-power’.
I hope Israel knows what it is doing. Frankly based upon the actions of the past two weeks, I have my doubts. If it knew what it was doing it would have called up ALL the reserves two weeks ago not in the piecemeal manner that has actually occurred.
There are too many stories about how Hezbollah is tougher than anticipated. That says nothing good about either the Intelligence Services or the Israeli Administration. Two weeks into the campaign is not the time to discover how tough things are likely to be.
There are worse things than being known as a brutal power. One of them is being known as a brutal incompetent and ineffective power.
I am hoping for the best but —-
Jul 27, 2006 - 7:43 pm 11. Luther McLeod:DougF
While I see your points, and may even somewhat agree with them, as you state, its been TWO weeks. The hez’s have had six years to build defenses, on what pedestal have we placed the Israel’s? None of us should speak until it is done. And yes, I am guilty of otherwise.
Jul 27, 2006 - 8:32 pm 12. politikal redakt√∏r:The only power that can defeat Israel is the power that gives it political cover. That power is the US. It’s the US that decides what will be Israel’s military/political gain or loss. Israelis have learned that lesson as early as ‘56. Israel can have the whole ME tomorrow if the US decides it so. Or Israel can be made to shrivel towards an indefensible border if the US decides it so. Guess towards what political outcome the US has been pushing. It’s an absolute mystery to me why Israelis would want to sacrifice their sons fighting to keep Sunni hegemony over the ME. Whatever the outcome in Lebanon is, for Israel it makes little difference. The political decisions concerning Israel have already been made, regardless.
Jul 27, 2006 - 10:40 pm 13. Doug S.:DougF:
One flaw in your argument: The IDF did not “fail” to capture the two towns in question. They did capture them, though at heavier cost than they expected. That’s how they discovered the intact Iranian communications equipment in the town they called Hezbollah HQ.
Your point about the Israeli government being casualty averse is well-taken, though. But the latest from Drudge suggests that the Israeli public is in a very bellicose mood right now, and that should mitigate against squeamishness.
Jul 28, 2006 - 12:42 am 14. Lan Nguyen:When my wife stated her disbelief that Israel is in the state of disarray and is fighting a war with predetermined amount of time allowed being broadcasted and disseminated widely and thoroughly, predetermined number of soldiers (3 battalions of reservists called of 300 each
Jul 28, 2006 - 7:58 am 15. Lan Nguyen:When my wife stated her disbelief that Israel is in the state of disarray and is fighting a war with predetermined amount of time allowed being broadcasted and disseminated widely and thoroughly, predetermined number of soldiers (3 battalions of reservists called of 300 each, how the hell on earth that a real army batalion only have 300 men strenght? when Israel refuses to disclose their military formation and structure), and a whole army doing nothing but sitting at the border most of the time because no one knows what to do (the Israel’s cabinet meeting just announced yesterday their decision of becoming indecisive), she concluded that Israel will certainly lose this war.
I told her, if I’m an incompetent commander of Hezbollah who has no military tactic and strategic’s training in military campaign (which I think they are), I would perceive this is a tremendous weakness and I will move my men to engage and stop the advance of the Israelis “insufficient in number” troops, to bid the time so the world can force Israelis to withdraw from the border to return to the status quo. With my useful idiots working in almost all of the world’s mainstream media, I am guaranteed to win the propaganda news waves beamed to the idiots of the world, and by reading too much of the world’s useful idiots media analysis, I probably would believe in that too. The problem is if the Israelis also knows how to use the useful idiots to broadcasting their problems as disinformation campaign so they can wait with their 2 divisions iddling at the border (they just moved the Gaza division off Gaza yesterday) for my troops to take the stand and in the course of doing so, exposed my troops from the hidden population which they know they can’t afford to fight a war that way, then I take my men to a dead trap in a complete frontal classical military confrontation which my men is no match for my enemy when they can move at ease to disrupt my supply line and communication through air power while the best I could do is shoot some missiles then run.
Of course, I am not neither the Israelis commander no the Hezbollah commander, but I know for sure one thing, the Internet market is full of noises not unlike third world country’s fish markets and keyboard military commanders don’t last 5 seconds in a real war. So atke it with a lot of salt
Jul 28, 2006 - 8:04 am 16. Lan Nguyen:For whatever the reason, these symbols mimicks the arrow (sharp angle bracket with a dash) cut off my once in a life time lengthy post. Typepad probably tries to remind me that I should not test their software.
Jul 28, 2006 - 8:12 am