29 Comments

1. dougf:

I have commented here previously on Olmert’s strategy .

The polls in Israel indicate that he has widespread support at the present moment but this is merely an optical illusion based upon conflating Olmert with Israel in a time of war.

When this campaign is over so is Olmert. When even his ‘dovish’ Defense Minister is said to be more ‘gung-ho that the PM, something is truly amiss.

The man is a pasty little bureaucrat who has I believe handled this campaign poorly and indecisively. In addition to his obvious flaws he simply can’t THINK before he speaks. In the midst of a War he stupidly bragged about how all this actually made his West Bank disengagement plan even more viable. Faced with an actual revolt among segments of the army, he then in effect, apologised for being stupid and divisive.

That apology was too little too late. There will be elections in Israel within the year and he will be gone. Too bad. He had a chance to be ’someone’ and was the sole author of his pending misfortune.

The World gave him a ‘ window of opportunity’ and he threw his good fortune away. Israel will not forget or forgive.

Aug 4, 2006 - 9:20 am 2. chuck:

Israel has been fighting a war against the media from the outset

This is certainly a good argument for going all out for a quick if brutal war. Another is the slowly coelescing response of the Arab countries, no doubt also driven by the media. It is a strange world the left and the boomers have brought about.

Aug 4, 2006 - 9:26 am 3. Ron:

“The Jews are a peculiar people: things permitted to other nations are forbidden to the Jews.” From an article by Eric Hoffer 1902-1983, take a look, the Jews had better be careful, Hoffer was right I think. http://www.infoisrael.net/cgi-local/text.pl?source=5/c/050220061

Olmert is the equivalent of Jimmy Carter in time of war, maybe even John Kerry, he is that bad. The Jews can’t afford to lose, they all get killed at that point. Get it over with, everyone likes a winner and forgets the losers.

Aug 4, 2006 - 9:30 am 4. ahem:

This is the first Information Age war. Its most powerful weapon is propaganda.

Aug 4, 2006 - 9:34 am 5. Josh:

Doug, I think it’s a little early to draw conlusions about the fate of Olmert and the Israeli government. Israeli politics is brash, fractuous and by American standards of behavior seemingly out of control. You couldn’t imagine a cabinet member of any American administration (let alone the Bush administration) attacking the President, but in Israel it happens all too often. I agree that at best it’s embarassing, at worst quite dangerous, but left or right, it’s always been that way when coalitions are involved. We have no idea how this is all going to end, but at some point Israeli politicians across the spectrum will try to make some moves and the Israeli people will digest the situation in Lebanon, with the Palestinians, internally and beyond to decide where to go next electorally. It’s a very, very messy process, but I don’t think it’s safe to see the catcalls as anything more than just that.

Aug 4, 2006 - 10:32 am 6. Terrye:

I know I am getting sick and tired of the pundits and experts sitting back all safe and sound deciding who is right and wrong and soft and harsh. There are a lot of differences between Olmert and Krauthammer. One of them being that Charles can say and do as he pleases, he has no real responsibility. It is just talk for him.

Aug 4, 2006 - 1:09 pm 7. PeterUK:

Three rockets and thirty three casualties,the first recorded secondary explosions cause by fruit?

Aug 4, 2006 - 2:04 pm 8. dougf:

I know I am getting sick and tired of the pundits and experts sitting back all safe and sound deciding who is right and wrong and soft and harsh.–Terrye

Well I read Charles’s article and what he essentially said was that the “GROUND CAMPAIGN” should have begun long before it actually did because the air-war was a ‘failure’. Now unless you are saying that the air-war was NOT a failure, I don’t see how Charles deserves this criticism.

If I recall I said exactly the same thing late last week(before the stepped up effort), and what do we see now ?—- An enlarged and much more ambitious GROUND CAMPAIGN . A ground campaign which is the REAL focus of Israeli efforts.

And this is after just such a process was REJECTED by the so-called Security Cabinet on July 27th last week .

Now forgive this armchair commenter for jumping to conclusions, but the seqencing of events appears to me to lead inescapably to but two alternative conclusions.

A. This is all part of some magnificent ‘misdirection’ strategy pursued brilliantly by the Olmert administration. Pursued so cleverly in fact that they were willing to accept not only the continuing ’seeming’ failure of the original effort, but also the ever increasing criticism everywhere, just so that they could ‘confuse’ Hezbollah into thinking they were maybe winning.

B. Olmert blew it by mandating a ‘failed’ caampaign for over 2 weeks, and is now scrambling to regain momentum with a very late use of increased IDF power. In the face of a pending UN call for a cessation of hostilities. A call which has been d-r-a-g-g-e-d out precisely because he misused his ‘grace period’.

Hmmm, tough call on choosing between these alternatives, I must say. What to do? What to do ?

Olmert is NOT Israel. It is perfectly acceptable to think he is a ‘doofus’ on this issue, and still support Israel 100%. Sometimes the Emperor really is riding around with a few less clothes than is required by polite society. Like now, for example.

Aug 4, 2006 - 2:36 pm 9. mikem:

“…because Israel has no choice but to continue in the face of what will undoubtedly be mounting negative public opinion. This is a time for all friends of freedom to hold their noses and pray. It is not the moment for second-guessing. It is a moment for pressing on.”

Well said, accurate, honest and heartfelt. And indeed, these are perilous times for Israel. I am proud as a peacock to see the Bush administration giving unqualified support to Israel’s war for survival. Dingel and his Democratic colleagues can just go to hell.
There are a lot of scary scenarios possible in the next few months. The “destroy Israel” ambitions of many ME nations and peoples have been emboldened by Europe’s a** kissing of terrorists, especially anti-Israeli terrorists and of course their supporters, like Iran and Syria.

I wake up every morning these days, read the headlines and breathe a sigh of relief that Israel has not been mortally wounded. She needs to fight this through to the end, and America needs to, at the least, continue to watch her back and give whatever assistance we can.

Aug 4, 2006 - 2:40 pm 10. Terrye:

dougf:

Ease up.

Aug 4, 2006 - 2:40 pm 11. Terrye:

BTW, it is not unusual to use the air force to soften things up before the ground forces go in. I know that in situations like this people always think their way is best. I am well aware of the fact that Olmert is not Israel, but then neither are any of us.

Aug 4, 2006 - 2:43 pm 12. Rick Ballard:

dougf,

There is a “c.” that you don’t mention:

Israel had high hopes of a decapitation strike in the first days that would allow them time to call up reserves and let them have a little time for training. It didn’t work, the regulars got a bit more bloodied than anticipated in Round 1 and the reserves aren’t at a state of readiness that allows them to function as well as they should.

The readiness issue really doesn’t belong to Olmert – he hasn’t been PM long enough. It’s also an issue which will resolve itself fairly quickly. There is also the not so small issue involving the overall quality of the forces due to slow integration on the part of the eastern European immigrants.

Israel’s sabras of ‘67 and ‘73 aren’t in the game any longer.

I have a low opinion of Olmert but there are many factors in play for which he has little responsibility.

Aug 4, 2006 - 5:35 pm 13. Roger:

“I wake up every morning these days, read the headlines and breathe a sigh of relief that Israel has not been mortally wounded. She needs to fight this through to the end, and America needs to, at the least, continue to watch her back and give whatever assistance we can.”

All I can say, mikem, is I hope you’ve been reading them on Pajamas Media.

Aug 4, 2006 - 5:43 pm 14. dougf:

I have a low opinion of Olmert but there are many factors in play for which he has little responsibility.–Chuck

I bow to your superior knowledge of the internal dynamics of the IDF. This explanation revolves around the already acknowledged failures in Israeli Intelligence, but adds more detail on the ‘internal’ difficulties in the IDF chain of response. What you say sounds ‘right’, although it does not really absolve others from having made some arguably serious ‘errors’.

I guess all anyone can do is hope that time and current tactics allow Israel to delineate a CLEAR Victory. Anything less is a defeat which will have bad repercussions down the road.

I am quite sure however,that the after-war post mortems will be ‘uncomfortable’. Either for your reason “C” or other. Whatever the ’cause’ it needs to be corrected in short order so that the IDF once again is the absolute BIG GUY on the block. It simply can’t afford to be #2(even for 2 weeks while it gets its act togehter).

It is hard enough to ‘fight’ a guerrilla campaign without engaging in a one-handed war.

Aug 4, 2006 - 6:25 pm 15. dougf:

Oooops, apologies are due —-

Sorry Rick that prior reply was to your informed posting. Sorry to have dragged Chuck into the quagmire.

Aug 4, 2006 - 6:27 pm 16. cathyf:

How’s about:
d) Israel spent the last 24 years playing whack-a-mole with Hezbollah, in a propaganda environment where every successful whack ended up with hand-wringing and whinging about how evil the Israelis are. So this campaign has been about rope-a-dope — draw the Hezbollah fighters to the borderlands by appearing vulnerable, then cut off Hezbollah command-and-control to prevent the muckety-mucks from ordering a retreat. Successful commando raids to grab intelligence, sow fear and confusion (who got killed? who got captured and is spilling his guts?). All the while keep propping the Hezzies up, because the only thing that really mobilizes world opinion is making the fight appear too lopsided. As long as it looks like a “fair fight” then world opinion is not strong enough to demand an effective cease fire. (Or to put it in a more practical light, when it looks like Israel is doing most of the fighting, then people naturally get the notion that “cease fire” equals “Israel stops firing.”)

So the most significant thing that I noticed about the raid in Baalbek — obviously Iran hasn’t gotten around to arming the Hezzies with SAMs. Things that make you go “hmmmmm…”

cathy

Aug 4, 2006 - 7:57 pm 17. photoncourier.blogspot.com:

Most likely, the prospective antiaircraft missiles are of the radar-guided type. If this is the case, I make three predictions:

1)The weapons will be deliberately located in civilian areas.

2)The launchers will be targeted by Israeli radar-homing missiles.

3)Western media will feature the casualties caused by these Israeli strikes.

Aug 4, 2006 - 8:36 pm 18. AST:

I wouldn’t claim to know anything about how to make war, but one thing is pretty clear: If you go to war, your aim to make the enemy surrender or die, and you have to set your face like flint against criticism from the media. Arabs understand resolve and implacability, but they see dithering and indecision as weakness.

It’s an unfortunate part of democracy that leaders are always being second-guessed, but that just has to be accepted at the outset. If you haven’t thought things through and made up your mind at the outset, you shouldn’t have started it in the first place.

Oh, and counting on the U.N. to send forces to finish the job is pretty stupid.

Aug 4, 2006 - 9:26 pm 19. John Moore ( Useful Fools ):

I am pleasantly surprised to see so little pressure on Israel to prematurely end their operations. They blew at least a week, but maybe now they can catch up.

I don’t know, however, anyway that they can “win” – no matter how good they are. As long as Iran can train and supply Hezbollah with impunity, they will continue to be a big problem.

Which leads me to something that has been bothering me. I think many of us can see a likely future where Iran has nukes and ICBM’s (i.e., strategic deterrence against us), North Korea has the same, and Iran uses nuclear equipped, anonymous terrorists in western cities. This seems analogous to a pre-1938 situation.

Given the probability of this, what dynamics prevent us from recognizing that we are in an existential war, and actually doing something about this – in other words, really going to war against the threats, and ending them? This seems to be like a nightmare… the threats slowly get worse, we continue to watch in horror, but we are paralyzed and don’t get out of the situation.

Aug 4, 2006 - 10:30 pm 20. David Thomson:

ìAs long as Iran can train and supply Hezbollah with impunity, they will continue to be a big problem.î

Israelís air force has knocked out all the major roads. Iran is going to find it virtually impossible to adequately supply Hezbollah. Israel may have made a few mistakes early on in the conflict—but it is now kicking some serious butt. Arabs are doomed to lose wars because of their backward cultural values.

Aug 4, 2006 - 10:48 pm 21. Robin Goodfellow:

If ever there were a time calling for a moment of clarity, this would be it. The world needs to understand that Hezbollah is not merely a “terrorist organization” but it is an entity which has declared total war against Israel and has been fighting said war using any and all means at its disposal.

Moreover, people need to understand that Lebanon has been complicit, whether willingly or no, in Hezbollah’s actions by being unable and unwilling to stop Hezbollah from using Lebanese territory as a base of operations. The situation is similar to that of the taliban and al qaeda. When you are the government of a state you have an international responsibility for things that occur within your borders. If you cannot stop groups within your state from making war with other states and you are unwilling to seek outside help in righting such a situation then you are effectively sponsoring that group’s war efforts (by giving them the cover of your state’s “sovereignty”).

It may be easy to take pity on the Lebanese because they are so apparently modern, have been faced with a very sticky situation, and have been victimized by the recent war. But they still bear much of the responsibility for this war. The same as the Germans who stood by while Hitler came to power, or the Russians who stood by while Stalin assembled the Soviet empire. The Lebanese tried to ignore the problem of Hezbollah (partly because they did not care overly much about the injury Hezbollah might do to Israelis) and preferred to spend their time building condos and partying in clubs. All the while the hard work of making Lebanon a real state was going undone. And now both they and Israel are paying the price for that.

Aug 4, 2006 - 10:51 pm 22. Joe Schmoe:

I think the Western media is basically irrelevant at this point. The propaganda war is already over — it never really began. The Hezbollah people can stage as many photo-ops as they want, and our TV screens can be filled with pictures of sobbing widows, maimed children, and fist-shaking mobs — but none of this matters. Isreal is still free to do whatever it has to do.

The conventional wisdom is that Isreal has to act quickly in any conflict, becuase the media will inevitably be prejudiced and whip up a storm of criticism. Once the tide of public of opinion inevitably turns against it, the “international community” will “make Israel stop.”

But how? Suppose French public opinion turns against Isreal. How, exactly, can the French “make Isreal stop?”

I don’t see how they can. And that’s France we’re talking about, a country that still has not-inconsiderable economic, diplomatic, military resources. Compared to France, who cars what the El Salvador’s Ambassador to the UN thinks?

The only country that can really make the Isarelis stop is the US. But we’re not making them stop. Israel is free to do what it has to do, public criticism be damned, no?

Aug 5, 2006 - 6:13 am 23. PBRMan:

It seems to me inescapable that any fighting force that is unwilling to inflict, or to accept, civilian casualties must always be defeated by a force that seeks to inflict them, and advertises its acceptance of them. Israel simply can’t permit the innate civility of its people and its leaders to prevent its doing what it has to do to survive. As a reluctant General Sherman observed, the crueler it is, the sooner it will be over.

Aug 5, 2006 - 8:07 am 24. Lan Nguyen:

Cathy,
It is also my speculation from the earliest day, about the IDF’s strategy to draw the Hez to stay to fight the battle in Southern Lebanon, instead of dispersing their fighters into the population and make the IDF’s job very hard to accomplish. This strategy could be part of another higher strategy to smash the Hez to a weaker force, so when the time a civil war arrived, they are much easier to manage by another sectarian groups, because once the Israelis gone, the hatre among them will definitely return.

All of the noises showing on all the media channels could very well be a smoke screen of a disinformation war in progress because if we can see CNN reporters safely reporting at the IDF’s firing range but never once at the Hez’s opoerational center, why not using the useful idiots to broadcast the “intended” news?

Once energy produced plans has been targetted to force the Hez to use their generators hence revealing their EMF signatures, the supply roads to be severed as it has happened couple days ago, the battle field is starting taken shape and will be intense. All the peace talks, cease fire are just creating more undecision and confusion while the battle drum’s tempo is more intense and increased.

I just could not fathom the noise Olmert generated about West Bank’s disengagement when the war is going on, hence my reservation that there is a chance Olmert and his leftist liberal cabinet is squandering their golden opportunity. If I’m a Hez commander planning to take my fighting force to fight the Israelis, I’m probably more concern about something making no sense like that to glimpse through the smoke screen, than the fact the whole Israelis Army literally taking a picnic at the border while their politicians debating of their decisions, for the mistake I took could mean the total destruction of my fighting force.

Aug 5, 2006 - 10:48 am 25. Mark Razak:

What would the world do if tomorrow Iran annihilated Israel with nuclear weapons? Besides the ‘’strongly worded‚Äô‚Äô statement of condemnation or, perhaps, the really, really strongly worded statement of condemnation what would the world do? How would the world react to hundreds of millions of Muslims dancing in the streets over the nuclear murder of the Jewish state? I wager that the world will do basically nothing. Oh, sure there will boycotts maybe even of Iranian oil. But that will wear thin since people will rapidly grow weary of $6 per gallon gasoline. The Left is in transition from support of a ”two state‚Äù solution to support for Israel`s outright annihilation. Just listen to the protests, read their placards. Didn‚Äôt Noam Chomsky pay a visit to Hezbollah and endorsed their struggle? Don‚Äôt underestimate his influence. I work for the US Navy and I know of several individuals at my place of employment who are genuine Chomskyites. Anti-Israeli feeling for a large portion of the Left is anti-Americanism by proxy. What the Left wants for Israel it dreams about for America. Israel is losing this war, just like her big brother America, because she is refusing to do what is necessary to do. Olmert like our failed President is in the progress of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, Israel/America worry about the opinions of whose who do not wish her well; they refuse to challenge the opposition and argue their positions again and again and again. We will continue to lose until we name our enemy and until we defend without apology our history, our institutions and our values. If you have children do know what is being taught to them in their social studies and history classes? I was shocked to learn from my son about the tired Leftist-Chomsky bullshit that was being presented as fact at his school. My son was the only one in this classes‚Äîthe only one‚Äîwho challenge his teachers. (I don‚Äôt live in Berkeley.) Make no mistake the war on Israel is microcosm of the war that the Left, and its newly found ally the Islamists, is waging against Western civilization.

Aug 5, 2006 - 9:20 pm 26. Mark Razak:

Oh, can anybody steer me to a tutorial on how to use TypeKey?

Aug 5, 2006 - 9:23 pm 27. gumshoe:

“What would the world do if tomorrow Iran annihilated Israel with nuclear weapons? Besides the ‘’strongly worded‚Äô‚Äô statement of condemnation or, perhaps, the really, really strongly worded statement of condemnation what would the world do? How would the world react to hundreds of millions of Muslims dancing in the streets over the nuclear murder of the Jewish state? I wager that the world will do basically nothing.”

-Mark Razak

Mark -

as the tension ratched up in the last week or so,
one blogger posted several images on his website,
one of which shook me to my bones.

it was a picture of a gymnasium’s worth
of naked Jews lying face down in a field.

most of them already dead.

in the photo,a fully uniformed SS officer
is shown shooting a wounded woman who is attempting to pick herself up.

and Amedinejad coyly cries
“what Holocaust?”.

Aug 5, 2006 - 10:07 pm 28. HA:

Roger,

and great courage in the latter from the US

Don’t bother looking for any courage from the Democrats:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/archives/060804/republicans_mor.htm

For the moment, the Establishment Democrats are mouthing the right words in support of Israel. But the base of the party overwhelmingly anti-Israel. And as the last few years have shown, they don’t have the courage to stand up to the base in the long term. Just as they didn’t with respect to the Iraq war when a majority of Democratic Senators voted in favor and then immediately began undermining the war before the legislative ink dried.

Let’s state the truth. There is a constiuency in the far left of the Democratic party that is virulently anti-Semitic. If you don’t believe me, just attend a “peace” protest. They don’t want peace. They just want Jews to march into the sea without resistance. Their idea of “peace” is the destruction of Israel. This is the base of the party. It is passionate, organized and well-financed. And the Establishment Democrats in Washington will crumble beneath it.

Aug 6, 2006 - 4:01 am 29. HA:

dougf,

I suggest to you possibility D (with a nod to Rick Ballard’s C option). Perhaps Olmert recognized that Hezbollah had six years to prepare the battle field and he didn’t want to send a masssive force into a meat grinder before making counter-preparations.

I’m not saying this is the case. I’m not in a position to. All I’m saying is that there are many reasons why this war is taking longer than supporters of Israel would like.

The most likely outcome is that Hezbollah will be destroyed, and southern Lebanon will be demilitarized one way or another – even by depopulating it if necessary. For now, the time frame over which this is taking place seems long. But if the outcome that I expect is achieved, it won’t matter if it took six weeks or six months. It will be another essential strategic victory for Israel.

Aug 6, 2006 - 4:22 am

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