Roger L. Simon

November 13th, 2006 9:41 am

Baker’s dozen

My Pajamas colleague R. Miniter has an interesting column in the NY Post this morning with more evidence that the Bush Team is in full retreat. Other earlier evidence was the drafting of James Baker & Co. to bring forth a new Iraq policy. On the other end, the President had promised to defend John Bolton and is standing firm on Iran on some level. What to think? I have no idea. Things seem to me to be spinning out of control at the moment. Perhpas they have been for some time. We are all in the hands of history now.

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28 Comments

1. David Thomson:

The great philosopher Rush Limbaugh cynically believes that George W. Bush may want to be loved by everyone. He will accept the tacit deal requiring him to essentially shut up and allow the Democrats to do what they want—and the MSM will begin to describe him as statesman willing to abandon partisan politics for the good of the country. I don’t think thatís going to happen. If nothing else, the ìmainstreamî Democrats will self self-destruct. They are disingenuous pacifists. Many Americans were concerned with the administrationís handling of the Iraq war. However, these voters are not the heirs of George McGovern! I expect to soon see a case of ìbuyerís remorse.î Do you remember the proverbial guy who bought a lemon from the slick selling used care dealer?

There are existential questions which I am unable to answer fully to my satisfaction. Is there a God? Is there a life after death? Why in hell did George W. Bush wait until the day after the election to announce the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld? A month earlier would have made all the difference.

Nov 13, 2006 - 10:35 am 2. Ron:

According to Nancy Pelosi and cohorts, they will be pushing for a replay of the Viet Nam era bug out where millions of dupes paid the price in reeducation camps for believing anything the Americans told them. The ones with the purple fingers will go to the real bone yards of history, feels like a Democrat deja vu coming up.

Nov 13, 2006 - 11:16 am 3. Godzilla:

For quite some time, I’ve been getting less and less gung ho on the Iraq war. I don’t believe that it is possible to win clean, politically correct wars against an entrenched insurgency. For all my adult life, I’ve seen the pampered hands of the politicians holding back the leashes of our military, and I’m sick of it. We’d all be speaking German or Japanese by now if we hadn’t fought WWII like wars should be fought, and Roger, you’d be a lampshade. In another ten years, if this keeps up, I’ll be ready for my state of Washington to secede from this milksop union and go its own damn way. Rumsfeld, smumsfeld, the next damn dumsfeld, what does it matter? One thing I can be sure of is that he’ll never have set his foot down on my street, much less be aware of the neighborhood I live in.

I sincerely doubt that any change to the present Iraq policy is going to swerve in a direction of my liking.

And I’m not sure if the Iraqi government itself is not part of the problem.

As far as I’m concerned, the best people in this country are wearing military uniforms, and every time another serviceman/servicewoman goes down in that middle eastern shithole, my heart hardens further against those souless bastards in Washington, DC.

Nov 13, 2006 - 11:51 am 4. Godzilla:

And now the incoming Speaker of the House is backing “Kerry lite” as the majority leader. Sickening.

Nov 13, 2006 - 11:58 am 5. Anthony (Los Angeles):

Roger,

Austin bay has some comments on the forthcoming Baker-Hamilton report you may be interested in:
http://tinyurl.com/yjd78x

Nov 13, 2006 - 12:55 pm 6. Terrye:

I know this is a radical concept but how about we wait until we actually know what is going on before we start this stuff?

It seems to me that there are people on the right that just can not restrain themselves. I don’t care if it is Dubai, or Harriet Miers or Katrina or what it is they just have to jump right off that cliff.

I heard that Gulliani is also a part of the Iraq Survey Group. I don’t know what the future holds, but at least I am honest enough to admit that.

Nov 13, 2006 - 1:01 pm 7. Lem:

The only chance Rove saw for a major domestic legislation like that “guest worker program” (amnesty) was letting the demos pass it and share the credit. The dems love big legislation, but there is one thing they love more – hearings.

Whatever they end up doing or not doing can only benefit the GOP in 08. The shoe is in the other foot. If they pass the GWP and it goes wry (meaning a flood of humanity coming across believing the act to mean amnesty) the dems wont be able to run away from it. In the other hand if they don’t pass anything the GOP will say see I told you so. The only thing dems are good at is the politics of personal destruction.

Nov 13, 2006 - 1:51 pm 8. Lem:

ah .. yes, Rove is a genius. As for Iraq, that ship has sailed. The troops will start coming home, slowly but surely, emboldening Iran witch will continue their quest for the bomb.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:01 pm 9. Terrye:

Lem:

The majority of Americans want comprehensive immigration reform. The fact that a lot of pundits and bloggers on the right did not want it is beside the point. The hardliners got their fence and lost the House. They should have gone with a compromise when they had the numbers.

Now this socalled survey group may be nothing more than cover for the Democrats so that they can get involved with the war without calling for an immediate withdrawal. Which most people don’t want anyway.

I don’t know if Bush is in retreat or not, but the American people obviously want to see the situation in Iraq improve and they expect the President to do something about it. I still believe in democracy in the Middle East, but there has to be more security there or the people themselves will give up on it.

I read an article in WaPo and it does not sound all that dramatic. In the last paragraph It does mention an interesting exchange between Kristol and Gates, the man who Bush has nominated for SecDef.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:03 pm 10. jedrury:

Lest we all panic, a few words of hope.

The president backs Bolton in the face of Flannel Mouth Joe Biden’s comments Sunday. “No retreat. Up or down.” Ballsy.

Miniter, the conservative, comments the WH is “in full retreat.Baker/Hamilton is the game in play NOW.” Why the story in the first place? A stalking horse article to play off against acceptance of the “redeployment” report or to rewrite the report to be stronger, less acceptable to the Dems.

All speculation, of course; one thing is clear: the president is a wholly underestimated poker player and these two seemingly inconsistent happenings [giving Minitier's article a credibility it may not deserve]are not without tactics and strategy by the Man at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:07 pm 11. Barrett:

While I will not pretend to know the future, I do know that Bush has had a tin ear from a political perspective. Take Rumsfeld, Bush had to have had his resignation up his sleeve in order to have Gates teed up. The fact that Gates is another Bush I retread and a party with prior baggage in the region is not going to help any.

However, the real reason the Dems won is because Bush and the Republican majority are really not conservatives. Where was the fiscal constraint? Where was the push for smaller government, less regulation and support for small businesses? Where was the stance for the rule of law? (You watch. He will team up with the Dems to let every illegal become a citzen. That will simply set off another wave of illegal immigration because everyone will know that the US caves about every 20 years – 1986, 2006-7…)

I think more people would have shown tolerance for Iraq and the war against radical Islamism if there had been a willingness or an attempt to show an evolving strategy. The appearance was otherwise. Why we fight wars now with such restraint is unfathomable to me. This is not a police action! If you are going to undertake such a serious action, it should be to win decisively.

As far as the policy of the Dems is concerned, it took until Sunday’s news shows to articulate the cut and run strategy. The fact that the people of Iraq who voted will be subject to recrimination if we leave be damned. We screwed the South Vietnamese too. Lots of luck getting an support for regime change in Iran. I have never seen a dumber bunch in my life.

I can hardly wait until we get to the socialist agenda so we can catch up to Europe. Remember that the Dems/Left want to create dependency on government so that voters will not bite the hand that feeds them. It has to do with power, not freedom. Look at the incentives and motives.

And speaking of dumb, the Republicans want the same leadership in the minority as what they had in the majority. Now there’s the ticket to fresh thinking.

I’d like to see conservatives take over the Republican party. Strong defense, smaller government, less regulation, lower taxes, personal freedom…….

I am afraid we will be paying for this with lives (maybe on our soil) and even more treasure.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:18 pm 12. Rhod:

I’m in the sad position of having a participant in this war, now home, tell me everything that I have not wanted to hear from the left. The policy has been exhausted by the recipients of our generosity, the Iraqis, and “whether it’s ten days or ten years, the outcome will be the same”, I’m told.

The central problem is Al Sadr, who is safe from our military, well-protected by some 50,000 supporters, and already infiltrating the Iraqi Army. Anyone who claims to have foreseen this problem is a liar.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:19 pm 13. Joe Schmoe:

Well, on the larger question of whether we should retreat, I have an open mind.

I was a very enthusiastic supporter of the war from the beginning. However, lately I have been thinking that the paleocons may have been right all along.

The Iraqi people obvioulsy WANT to live in a modern, mostly secular democracy. Whether they are CAPABLE of doing so is another question, and to be frank, right now it looks like the answer is “no.”

The violence just never stops over there. They can’t seem to keep from torturing and slaughtering one another.

Most of the liberals’ predicitons about the war have been proven false. The insurgency hasn’t grown, not really. They don’t regard us as imperialistic occupiers — over 70% of Iraqis risked their lives to participate in the elections we set up. The Iraqi people don’t appear to want to live in a hardline, sharia state.

But the violence remains constant. Yes, some of it comes from foreign jihadis. And I’m sure that Iran, Syria, etc. are doing everything in their power to stir up trouble.

But the bottom line is that the Iraqis just keep massacring one another. They attack our soldiers, they attack each other. The violence never seems to abate.

Maybe we should pull out. I don’t any indication that things will get better any time soon, that’s for sure.

We’ve given them four years, hundreds of billions of dollars, and the most precious gift of all — @2,800 of our soliders. Our war effort has been more or less all out — this hasn’t been a Kosovo-style bombing campaign. The Iraqis had their chance. Personally, my patience is running out.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:23 pm 14. Terrye:

Barret:

No, the Republicans did not lose because they are not conservatives, they lost because the majority of Americans are not conservatives.

For that matter the majority are not liberal.

According to recent studies 47% consider themselves themselves moderate or centrists and they reacted not only to the war but to the hardliners on immigration who refused to compromise and in Conneticutt they turned on Lamont because they don’t like the idea of surrender.

The American people want to hear some new ideas. It happens.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:43 pm 15. Terrye:

jedrury:

The US military is taking on AlSadr right now. And Abizaid and Negraponte have both been to Iraq in recent days to let Maliki know that while they support the government, they expect them to get it together.

Syria is talking about cooperating, believe that when I see it and while there is some talk of negotiating with Iran over Iraq, Bush said today that Terhan needs to be isolated because of its refusal to stop the nuke program.

Maybe people are jumping the gun. again. as usual.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:47 pm 16. jedrury:

There were when I was young nursery rhymes about panic; “the sky is falling, the sky is falling.”

I jibe my Democratic friends that “on January 20, the Communists are taking over.” They blush.

The Economist’s cover is “The Incredible Shrinking Presidency.”

The Man at 1600 does not give up easily.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:55 pm 17. Rhod:

I wouldn’t argue with you Terrye, but “taking on Al Sadr” will involve the complete destruction of his small well-defended “city”, as well as eliminating his influence among personal and aligned militias, AND his meddling with the Iraqi Army. To do even part of that, we need to kill him. That won’t happen.

My source was stationed at Rustamiyah, and knew Tucker and Menchaca, too. A recent killing of an American soldier by a shot from a mosque near Sadr City ended with no reprisals, and although the equipment on the scene was capable of destroying the mosque, it didn’t happen.

I don’t know where your “taking on Al Sadr” info comes from, but if it involves talk, there’s been enough of that, and the will to kill him is simply gone.

Nov 13, 2006 - 2:58 pm 18. Joe Schmoe:

I am bothered by the idea that we will be talking to Iraq and Sryia. Those countries are dictatorships, one religous, the other secular.

I don’t really mind if we pull out and leave the Iraqis to slaughter one another, as they seem determined to do that anyway.

I do mind if we pull out and leave them to our enemies.

Maybe there isn’t any way to pull out without seeing Iran and Syria step in and fill the power vacuum. But the very idea that we may be considering cutting a deal with them — at least according to the MSM — is pretty distasteful.

Nov 13, 2006 - 3:01 pm 19. Rhod:

Joe:

Realpolitik is back, and along with it, Brzezinski and all the other Carterian buffoons.

Nov 13, 2006 - 3:10 pm 20. Terrye:

Rhod:

I do not doubt that is true. In fact if taking on AlSadr and really finishing him were that easy I would imagine that it would have been done by now.

But every now and then it is good to hear they are rattling the guy’s cage.

I never really feel comfortable with these kinds of discussions however, because I know there is so much I don’t know. If you follow my meaning. I am no expert.

I saw that on the fox news . Apparently there is an offensive against some of his militia, they are also calling in air support.

Too bad they let him back in the country in the first place.

If you look at the Wapo article and the link to austin bay you get the impression that the survey group is designed to offer the Democrats a way to get involved in fighting the war without looking like they are helping Bush. I hate politics.

Nov 13, 2006 - 4:45 pm 21. Luther McLeod:

Reality has no bearing on this discussion.

Reality is too harsh, cold, cruel and heartless for this country to implement. Anymore.

I just finished a 180 degree discussion with my better two-thirds. She is such a grounded woman and I respect everything she says. But on the war (and the greater war) I disagree with here.

There are only two options we face. Fight for our lives, or accept dimmitude. I fear what the Dem’s will bring us. John Lennon must must have a smile on his face, in his grave.

Nov 13, 2006 - 6:00 pm 22. Rhod:

I’ve read elsewhere, and agree, that free elections in Egypt would be won by the Muslim Brotherhood, free elections in Saudi Arabaia would be won by Salafists friendly to Al Qaeda, Hamas we know about, Iran we know about; free elections in Jordan would topple the Hashemite monarchy.

Pakistan has made a separate peace with the Waziri’s (who number about 30 million, are sympatheitic to the Taliban, and disregard the artificial Afghan border which separates them), and we know about Syria and Hezbollah. Michael Yon, for one, sees Afghanistan becoming more like Iraq,and NATO is unprepared to deal with it.

Nothing recommended by two policy wonks like Baker and Hamilton can encompass these realities. Their report will be accepted by the equivocating and gutless entities we call Senators and Reps, of all parties, and rolled out into camo blankets. Today Realpolitik is the policy of fantasists.

Nov 13, 2006 - 6:29 pm 23. Barry Dauphin:

Well, if we pull out in the way some envision the Bush Presidency is basically over. I’m not sure what he could accomplish in the last two years, except endorsing whatever the Dems want when it alligns with his interests and vetoing everything else. This would be a major embolding of the jihadists and scare the cr@p out of many vulnerable people throughout the world. For all the talk about the evil super-power, I think most people around the globe would be truly afraid of the alternative.

Nov 13, 2006 - 6:39 pm 24. Luther McLeod:

“I think most people around the globe would be truly afraid of the alternative”

Yes, Barry.

But they do not have voices in this fight. Like it or not, the weight is on our shoulders.
We must lead. We must be the voice of the yearning. It is a big job.

In a sense, the whole thing is really beyond partisanship. It is Normandy, many times over. Over the top or back to the boats.

Easy choice if one believes we are at war, but fifty percent of us do not believe we are. How can/will that change?

Nov 13, 2006 - 7:13 pm 25. Barrett:

Rhod,

Regarding your last comments, that is precisely the reason why radical Islamism must be confronted. If we pull out, the costs in every measurable way will be higher. Iraq will be used to topple the regional Muslim monarchies and overthrow Muslim states to create the Caliphate. The war will become more economic as well given our dependency on Middle Eastern oil. The only chance is that Sunnis, Shia and Iranians will continue to kill each other over who will lead this evil on the rest of the world.

Terrye,

I agree with you that it is hard to be an expert when we are often removed from relevant facts. However, as far as Al-Sadr is concerned, we should just kill him. Sorry, it was a technical malfunction that dropped that bomb on his house! Use whatever excuse you want. We had the chance, but did not take it. Why don’t we fight like we want to win? That’s why we are in this predicament. Would the collateral damage have been any greater than it is today? I don’t know. (Imagine what the recriminations will be like if we pack up and run.) Thugs only respect power and its application. Luther is right. Fight for our lives or ……

Regarding, illegal immigration, where does the rule of law come into play? If your offense is aggregious enough, then it is excused? (If you kill one person, you get the chair. If you kill 10, then you get probation? The logic is the same.) Do you know how illegals are treated in Mexico?

I am not a big fan of the fence and the real problem is the Mexican government with it’s socialistic policies that constrain economic opportunity. Mexicans, as a generalization, certainly do not appear to be afraid of work.

My sense is that most people want an equitable solution to immigration and not just a free pass, which would include the miscreants in the illegal population. A free pass would have many negative consequences.

Nov 13, 2006 - 10:29 pm 26. Terrye:

There is an old saying, beware your heart’s desire for surely you will get it. Sometimes you have to let people have a little of what they want in order for them to know what it really is.

For instance in regards to Egypt voting for the Muslim Brotherhood if there were elections…who benefits from that more than Mubarek? I heard a young Egyptian on some news program making the point that people in the ME who do not want democracy use the Islamists to make sure they will not get it because people fear the Islamists. And so he says, the dictators like Mubarek work at keeping the Islamists alive and well.

In truth the Iraqis need to confront asSadr. I don’t mean his militia, but the bulk of the Iraqi people who want a future that is not controlled by these fanatics.

The problem then becomes..do we have the time and do they have the courage?

Nov 14, 2006 - 2:29 am 27. Godzilla:

So now these jerkwads want to negotiate with Iran. Send Jimmie Carter over there. Par for the course.

Nov 14, 2006 - 10:25 am 28. WAmom:

Tomorrow (Wednesday) night, there will be a special on CNN exposing the extreme threatening evil of Iran. The dems come into power, and the media sees everything differently

Nov 14, 2006 - 10:54 pm

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