The current Rasmussen poll shows Giuliani besting Hillary 47-44. Over the last months, it has had Giuliani in the lead between 2 and 9 points. The same poll shows Hillary leading Thompson (F., of course) 48-44. (Rasmussen doesn’t seem to have bothered with a head-to-head with Romney. Hugh Hewitt should be upset with them.)
I think this adds up to very good news for Hillary at the present juncture. Why? Even with the Hsu Controversy, she seems to have the Democratic nomination sown up. The latest Real Clear Politics poll average shows her 16 percentage points ahead, basically where she has been all year. Giuliani isn’t doing badly either in the same poll average,coming in at an 11.7% advantage.
But one can’t help but think he is ever so slightly more vulnerable with Thompson finally about to come in officially. This will mean more of a fight on the Republican side and more influence for the extremists. Hillary no longer has to cater to Moveon, Kos and the rest, except with gestures. She can go to the center (where the presidency is won). The Republicans still have to cater to their base. Trouble for them. We shall see.





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11 Comments
1. MarkD:I fail to see how catering to the Republican base is a problem. The party of small government got handed its rear precisely because it re-branded itself as Dem-lite.
The rationale of supporting someone who is going to take a dollar from me and brag about how he’s going to give me fifty cents escapes me. Amnesty doesn’t seem to be a winning issue.
Has the Hillary fundraising fiasco made it to your local paper? It hasn’t made it to mine. Instead we have the front page with toilet-stall Craig, and Hillary at the NY State Fair.
Sep 1, 2007 - 2:07 pm 2. Alan in Oakland:All the more reason for people to start seriously thinking Rudy/Fred 08. To me, that would be THE unbeatable combo. Rudy for all of the 9/12 voters (including me- no more big wholes in Manhattan!) and Fred for all of the “social” conservatives (not really me…). Bases would be covered in depth with that combo. Repubs have to put up the nominee that has the best shot at winning and I can’t see how that can be anyone other than Rudy (sorry, Mitt and HH).
Sep 1, 2007 - 2:12 pm 3. Alan in Oakland:oops- should be “holes” not “wholes” in Manhattan.
Sep 1, 2007 - 2:12 pm 4. Barry Dauphin:Hold on a bit. The Hsu thing really just came to light. I’m sure 80% of the country (at least) doesn’t even know a thing about it. At this point Hillary looks good for the nomination, but maybe the Hsu will be on the other foot.
Sep 1, 2007 - 3:30 pm 5. dougf:But one can’t help but think he is ever so slightly more vulnerable with Thompson finally about to come in officially.–Roger
I think you will soon find that Thompson was at his high-water mark about 4 weeks ago.
He is I believe destined to go from golden-boy to never-was without really even entering the race.
He has lately been quite unimpressive according to various reports, and the lack of current enthusiasm for him is striking. At one point he was according to polls about 6 points behind Rudi. Now he is 12 in arrears and falling further every week.
I think he really is too old for this game, and in 2008 what the Republicans want above ALL ELSE is a WINNER.
Because they are destined to lose more Senate and more House seats as sure as god made little green apples. A complete sweep in 08 would be catastrophic for them and for the future pursuit of Islamic ‘militants’. And they know it.
Summing up — Fred = Yesterday’s News.
Sep 1, 2007 - 4:52 pm 6. Dick Stanley:Hard to believe she could win, once people realize that Slick Willie comes with her. Take a page from Texas history, where Pa Ferguson got impeached, and Ma Ferguson regained the governorship, and, of course, Pa came along. But Pa didn’t start any scandals by messing with the help. He just signed some questionable pardons.
Sep 1, 2007 - 9:38 pm 7. David Thomson:“The Republicans still have to cater to their base. Trouble for them. We shall see.”
I have strongly argued for the last few moths that the Republicans must pull the wagons around Rudy Giuliani. It is time to stop fooling around. At this stage of the game, Fred Thompson is likely to cause a lot of harm. The pro-family people must understand that the former New York mayor is the best bet to defeat Hillary Clinton—and save the country from destruction. In their of hearts, hard core Democrats are self hating Americans and appeasers. This mindset is particularly dangerous during wartime.
Sep 2, 2007 - 12:21 am 8. Jim Rockford:I don’t agree with your take at all Roger.
Here’s why:
1. Hsu, and the scandal are just too delicious for the WSJ (under new management and eager to impress with journalistic scoops, particularly since Hillary is a “friend of Murdoch’s” and it’s an easy way for the newsroom to stick it too Rupert). With the WSJ covering it even the LAT and NYT have to cover it, and Fox News will cover it.
“Winkle Paw?” Ties to BCCI, various sleazy Dem AND Reagan era lawyers, terrorists du jour, and of course China?
THAT stuff sells and makes careers.
2. Obama, Kucinich, Edwards, Dodd, Gravel, and Biden are not going anywhere in a Shrillary Administration. Now Obama took Hsu money too, so he’s out. But the others seemed to be too trivial to be bribed, and can push the sleaze-corruption and “sell out to China” angle HARD against the Shrillary with their press allies and pet reporters. What, Shrillary will “punish” them by not naming them to anything important anyway in her future administration?
That’s like Maria Sharapova threatening to continue not to date me.
3. Easy shots for ALL the Republicans to take against the Dem candidates: accuse them flat out of selling out to the Chinese through Shrillary’s bag man Hsu. The Justice Dept. investigation will help on that score, and it also incentivizes the rest of the Dems to point fingers at Shrillary as well.
4. Dems might well fear that this is a “third rate Burglary” ending up with “what did the Pantsuits know and when did she know it?” It’s a long campaign and an opportunity to maybe try someone knew. Like a Dodd, or a Biden, or heck even an Edwards. Someone untainted by the Chinese bagmen and more amenable to the Kossites (well, that would let out Biden). But you get the idea.
5. CALIFORNIA politics. Lest you forget Roger, we are in a budget showdown and the political infighting with beleagured Republicans outnumbered by Dems and RINO Arnold. Now it occurs to me that it was AWFULLY convenient that Hsu wasn’t pursued very hard by the Democratic AGs in the great State of California after he declined to attend his sentencing and instead spent his fifteen years meeting with State officials here in California and giving them money, in addition to his claimed Silicon Valley investments, and national giving in NYC. It’s ALSO awfully convenient that he has $2 million in cold hard cash lying around in his freezer for bail.
Can Republicans call for Jerry Brown, who they hate anyway, to step aside and have an independent counsel investigate WHO decided not to pursue Hsu and WHY (and perhaps what favors traded hands?)
Why certainly! It will get them on TV, in the papers, and maybe give them a puncher’s chance against Dems statewide.
6. Will Kimmell, Leno, Letterman, Ferguson, Conan, and the rest of the Late Night crowd mine this for comedy gold. Hmm …. Boy Named Hsu. Chinese money floating around Clinton. WINKLE PAW.
Late night stand up comedians will chase this comedy gold like Clinton chased the interns around his desk.
7. Will TMZ.com, various other Tabs run with this story? Sure. Clinton’s holed up in Ron Burkle’s “swinging bachelor pad” right here in LA, the usual stalkerazi tactics of some aggressive guy with a video camera provoking a beat-down while someone else films it is gold, particularly if Clinton’s with his latest squeeze. I’ll expect someone to stick a mike/camera in Clinton’s face and ask him about his “date” and Hsu. Tabloid gold.
Did I mention that TMZ is starting a new TV show?
Sep 2, 2007 - 2:53 am 9. Jim Rockford:Oh, and one more thing Roger.
WHO broke this story?
Did the WSJ (which printed it) suddenly get a psychic friend? Did Dionne Warwick call them up?
I somehow SERIOUSLY doubt that the WSJ reporters found this on their own by looking at every Shrillary donor and running them through Lexis-Nexis. That’s hard work Roger.
THAT’S WHAT RIVAL CAMPAIGNS DO. Then feed it to pet reporters. [Reporters avoid work at all costs. They might break out in a sweat or something. Their days consist of rephrasing press releases.]
Now, who oh who has the WSJ friendly reporters on speed dial?
Answer that tidbit and you get the campaign that leaked this to the WSJ.
If I had to just guess, without knowing anything more, I’d guess either the Biden or Edwards campaign. Edwards as a trial lawyer would know the fun to be had with the Press as a confidential source, and probably has contacts as a Senator dealing with various issues near and dear to the Lawyers lobby. Biden has likely been the source of various leaks to the WSJ for decades.
I’d rate Dodd as an outside possibility. It would require energy and imagination, two qualities sorely lacking in Dodd. But anything is possible. Neither Kucinich or his wife seem smart enough to pull that one off.
But the key is the hard work required to “spot the sleaze.” Running down the list of names and plugging them into Lexis-Nexis, actually reading them. That requires organized staff with a brain or two that works hard.
Who has the staff well funded enough, and diligent to go through that amount of FEC data and play spot the sleaze in the donor list?
If you are looking at money, and organized staff, I’d say count out almost all Dems save MAYBE Edwards or the Goreacle. Who has his own issues with Shrillary.
St. Al of the Goreacle to save the day? Weirder things have happened.
The other campaign to look at from a purely organized, well run, disciplined, actually work hard and smart perspective is Mitt Romney’s. Rudy’s staff is not known for it’s hard work or disciplined approach this campaign.
Sep 2, 2007 - 3:08 am 10. Roger:“Can Republicans call for Jerry Brown, who they hate anyway, to step aside and have an independent counsel investigate WHO decided not to pursue Hsu and WHY (and perhaps what favors traded hands?)”
Huh? Didn’t the Hsu Affair way pre-date Jerry?
Getting a little fevered here.
Sep 2, 2007 - 8:02 am 11. Peg Kaplan:I realize that this is not a substantive issue, but – I honestly think that once Hillary starts going one on one against the Republican candidate (Rudy, I hope) that her personality and voice will work against her. It is the media age, after all.
How many people will be able to slog through listening to that preachy, chalk-on-a-blackboard voice? Rudy sounds like a man in command, yet humane and with humor.
Hillary? Well; what she sounds like is better left unsaid!
Sep 2, 2007 - 9:34 pm