Comments on: Iran: the Mullahs, the CIA and my fraying mystery writers’ hat http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/ Just another Pajamasmedia.com weblog Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:42:05 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Gideon7 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91005 Gideon7 Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:23:00 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91005 We have to respect the US intelligence community. After all their constant vigilence alerted us to, - India's nuke test. Oops, skip that. - Pakistan's nuke test. Ok, not that. - Syria's nuke factory. Uhm, the Israelis got that one. - Libya's procuring U235 until Gaddaffi quit. Forgot that one.. - North Korea breaking the 1994 nuke treaty. Well.. Ok, nevermind. We have to respect the US intelligence community. After all their constant vigilence alerted us to,

- India’s nuke test. Oops, skip that.
- Pakistan’s nuke test. Ok, not that.
- Syria’s nuke factory. Uhm, the Israelis got that one.
- Libya’s procuring U235 until Gaddaffi quit. Forgot that one..
- North Korea breaking the 1994 nuke treaty. Well..

Ok, nevermind.

]]> By: j. marzan http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91004 j. marzan Wed, 05 Dec 2007 02:00:50 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91004 the intelligence agencies got it wrong on iraq's WMD ("Slam dunk"), and got it wrong on north korea's Nukes. Will their current estimate on iran's nukes be right THIS TIME? the intelligence agencies got it wrong on iraq’s WMD (”Slam dunk”), and got it wrong on north korea’s Nukes.

Will their current estimate on iran’s nukes be right THIS TIME?

]]> By: j. marzan http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91003 j. marzan Wed, 05 Dec 2007 01:58:38 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91003 it's either a deal has been made between Washignton and Iran to lay off the iranian gov'ts in exchange for cooperation in stemming the flow of arms and iranian agents to iraq via iran. either that or this iran nuke talk is a zionist conspiracy neocon plot. it’s either a deal has been made between Washignton and Iran to lay off the iranian gov’ts in exchange for cooperation in stemming the flow of arms and iranian agents to iraq via iran.

either that or this iran nuke talk is a zionist conspiracy neocon plot.

]]> By: dclydew http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91002 dclydew Tue, 04 Dec 2007 19:47:31 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91002 photoncourier.blogspot.com: IIRC, its a bit of both, you have to run the fuel through multiple centrifuges, but the centrifuges msut be of a specific quality, a higher quality than what's needed for fuel. As for the other, if we assume that Iran is really this desperate to get nuclear fuel... then they must know something we don't about the oil supply... otherwise, their reasons seem suspect. photoncourier.blogspot.com:

IIRC, its a bit of both, you have to run the fuel through multiple centrifuges, but the centrifuges msut be of a specific quality, a higher quality than what’s needed for fuel.

As for the other, if we assume that Iran is really this desperate to get nuclear fuel… then they must know something we don’t about the oil supply… otherwise, their reasons seem suspect.

]]> By: Anthony (Los Angeles) http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91001 Anthony (Los Angeles) Tue, 04 Dec 2007 19:16:12 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91001 Michael Ledeen has some (acerbic) thought on this latest NIE over at Pajamas: http://tinyurl.com/2pbjfd In short, he thinks it's a crock. Michael Ledeen has some (acerbic) thought on this latest NIE over at Pajamas: http://tinyurl.com/2pbjfd

In short, he thinks it’s a crock.

]]> By: photoncourier.blogspot.com http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91000 photoncourier.blogspot.com Tue, 04 Dec 2007 19:07:35 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-91000 If they weren't interested in building a bomb, why on earth would they be spending huge amounts of money of centrifuges? Surely, from a strictly economic point of view it would make more sense for them to invest money in oil-based process plants (chemical & plastics plants, refineries, etc) to get more value out of their crude oil, rather than developing commercial nuclear power. Also: I just saw somebody claiming that the Iranian centrifuges are only good enough to produce reactor-grade uranium, not weapons-grade uranium. But my understanding--and I am by no means an expert in this area--is that higher-grade fuel is produced by running the feedstock through *multiple* centrifuges, over and over again, rather than by using "better" centrifuges to produce the higher-grade product. Can anyone shed light on this? If they weren’t interested in building a bomb, why on earth would they be spending huge amounts of money of centrifuges? Surely, from a strictly economic point of view it would make more sense for them to invest money in oil-based process plants (chemical & plastics plants, refineries, etc) to get more value out of their crude oil, rather than developing commercial nuclear power.

Also: I just saw somebody claiming that the Iranian centrifuges are only good enough to produce reactor-grade uranium, not weapons-grade uranium. But my understanding–and I am by no means an expert in this area–is that higher-grade fuel is produced by running the feedstock through *multiple* centrifuges, over and over again, rather than by using “better” centrifuges to produce the higher-grade product. Can anyone shed light on this?

]]> By: dclydew http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90999 dclydew Tue, 04 Dec 2007 16:19:37 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90999 Lem: LOL, very nice. Lem:

LOL, very nice.

]]> By: Lem http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90998 Lem Tue, 04 Dec 2007 16:15:04 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90998 "In view of this, the intelligence and scientific communities felt that any public announcement might lead to significant cultural shock and disorientation." 2001 A Space Odyssey (c-125,126) “In view of this, the intelligence and scientific communities felt that any public announcement might lead to significant cultural shock and disorientation.”

2001 A Space Odyssey (c-125,126)

]]> By: dclydew http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90997 dclydew Tue, 04 Dec 2007 16:12:24 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2007/12/04/iran-the-mullahs-the-cia-and-my-fraying-mystery-writers-hat/#comment-90997 The other option may be that Iran presents the insane, maniacal, zealot face to their own people... but are rather savvy behind closed doors. If the NIE is correct (who knows), and they stopped any plans to build a bomb in 2003, then their actions over the past 4 years could be explained by trying to look tough to their own people. They may not want to cooperate, because they don't want CNN headlines to read "Iran Proves it has no WMD plans" (in their eyes it may read "Iran Proves it has no Balls"). In a nation where an undercurrent of revolution is obvious, looking at all weak may be a death knell. As for Syria, my guess is that Assad might be trying to play both sides of the fence. Sure Syria showed up at Annapolis (represented by a minor bureaucrat). Now they get to say "We tried to help", but at the same time, they can say to Iran "We just sent Bob over for some face time". My guess is that Iran and Syria may have already dealt with that behind closed doors before Annapolis started. If I were in Bashir's shoes, that's what I would have done anyway. I sure would like to know what Israel's target was though... too bad the answers seem to be coming from pundits rather than useful intel. The other option may be that Iran presents the insane, maniacal, zealot face to their own people… but are rather savvy behind closed doors. If the NIE is correct (who knows), and they stopped any plans to build a bomb in 2003, then their actions over the past 4 years could be explained by trying to look tough to their own people. They may not want to cooperate, because they don’t want CNN headlines to read “Iran Proves it has no WMD plans” (in their eyes it may read “Iran Proves it has no Balls”). In a nation where an undercurrent of revolution is obvious, looking at all weak may be a death knell.

As for Syria, my guess is that Assad might be trying to play both sides of the fence. Sure Syria showed up at Annapolis (represented by a minor bureaucrat). Now they get to say “We tried to help”, but at the same time, they can say to Iran “We just sent Bob over for some face time”. My guess is that Iran and Syria may have already dealt with that behind closed doors before Annapolis started. If I were in Bashir’s shoes, that’s what I would have done anyway.

I sure would like to know what Israel’s target was though… too bad the answers seem to be coming from pundits rather than useful intel.

]]>