I believe this article in the Jerusalem Post was published today as a reminder to Israel’s enemies:
If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran were to break out 16-20 million Iranians would lose their lives – as opposed to 200,000-800,000 Israelis, according to a report recently published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which is headed by Anthony H. Cordesman, formerly an analyst for the US Department of Defense. The document, which is largely theoretical due to the lack of verified knowledge in some areas – specifically in terms of Israel’s nuclear capability – paints various scenarios and attempts to predict the strategies of regional powers, as well as the US.
It goes on to talk about blowing up Syria (another 16 million deaths), Cairo and the Aswan Dam (the latter if Egypt entered the fray). No telling how man corpses that would yield – and this is without fallout.
A great thing to think about on Christmas Eve. This is not the greatest year ever, is it? It reminds me, yet again, of what the winner among our presidential candidates will have to deal with in January 2009. Forget Social Security or immigration, how about Armageddon? And now we learn Iran is planing 19 reactors… good luck to all of us.
I must say my Pajamas colleague Bill Bradley has a lot more faith in the NIE than I do – or apparently the British, French and Israelis. [You don't believe the CIA? They were so good on the Soviet Union and 9/11.-ed. Don't belabor the obvious.]
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5 Comments
1. LarryD:The article is probably part of the reaction to the NIE.
I hope the primary authors of the NIE realize their credability is sinking … in the mid-Alantic Ocean.
Dec 24, 2007 - 5:21 pm 2. Anthony (Los Angeles):Given the millenarian, apocalyptic religious fascists who rule Iran, I’m not so sure the JP article won’t be seen in Tehran as an enticement, rather than a warning.
Dec 25, 2007 - 12:18 pm 3. Barrett:I am not sure whether it matters if the Iranians see it as a threat or anything else. I would expect the Islamists who rule Iran to use the bomb somewhere if they get it. I think Israel is simply stating the obvious. If Iran nukes Israel or trys to, Israel fully plans to counter attack with nuclear weapons of its own.
A little bit closer to home and as LarryD writes, the credibility of the NIE is in question.
If US intelligence is now going to be based SOLELY upon verifiable fact, then it will be great for the NIE to tells us the Iranians have the bomb and will use when there is a mushroom cloud over some – hopefully not US – city. The idea that one should not draw conclusions from various fact patterns or a preponderence of evidence is ludicrous on its face.
My question for all of the presidential wannabes and intelligence agencies is simple. How should we respond to the fact that the Islamists have declared war against the USA?
This is the central question and aruging over whether to stay in or leave Iraq without answering it makes no sense.
Dec 25, 2007 - 7:17 pm 4. Neo:The key part here is Iran is planing 19 reactors.
If we take the most generous position, Iran, a top oil producer, is planning 19 nuclear plants, which more than one person will tell you is perfectly fine. Meanwhile the US just had an application a couple of months ago for the first nuclear plant in over 20 years.
Just who are the real idiots here ?
A bunch of 3rd world clowns, with possible bad motives, are building 19 plants for electricity while the eco-nuts in the US are happy to buy hybrid and (coal-driven) electric cars.
Dec 26, 2007 - 3:23 pm 5. TomTom:I cannot understand how Israeli deaths from an Iranian 1st strike would be (only) 200-800,000. The cited Iranian mortality from a counterstrike makes more sense, since Israel may have up to 125 nukes, presumably in extremely hardened launch locations.
The international effects of Iran-Israeli nuclear war will be globally devastating. I doubt most of us really grasp that. The mad mullahs must be stopped before they can act out their bizarre evil. Iran, unfortunately, does not have a lock on the nutters…we have them aplenty, and most of them are to my left.
Dec 26, 2007 - 9:21 pm