29 Comments

1. chuck:

No. But you would be crazy to predict the outcome this early. That’s my experience, anyway, I almost always get these political predictions wrong. Heck, I even thought Hilary was a shoo in.

Jul 12, 2008 - 7:05 pm 2. Gary Rosen:

I’m with you, Chuck. I fervently hope Roger is right, but there are too many wildcards out there with the economy and Iran. And McCain’s campaign hasn’t exactly looked like a well-oiled machine.

Jul 12, 2008 - 10:59 pm 3. edw:

Maybe Obama won’t be the first woman president.

Jul 13, 2008 - 7:25 am 4. Nomenklatura:

Obama is running into the same old Democratic candidate problem. Ronald Reagan, in his valedictory speech in 1992, commenting on the speeches at their convention in NYC:

“They put on quite a production in New York a few weeks ago. You might even call it slick. A stone’s throw from Broadway it was, and how appropriate. Over and over they told us they are not the party they were. They kept telling us with straight faces that they’re for family values, they’re for a strong America, they’re for less intrusive government.

And they call me an actor.”

Jul 13, 2008 - 7:36 am 5. Mwalimu Daudi:

I was like chuck in that I predicted that Her Inevitableness would win the Presidency. But the McCain campaign has been absolutely anemic up until now, so it’s hard to see how he could win.

Still - in the Rasmussen link there was this little blurb:

McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 23% of Republicans.

McCain does better among Democrats than the Messiah does among Republicans? What happened to the legions of “Obama Republicans” the MSM loves to prattle about?

Jul 13, 2008 - 7:59 am 6. tim maguire:

I have always thought and still think that Obama’s quest is hopeless, but since he has to annoy his base to attract enough moderates to win, now is the time to do it. A lot will come and go between now and November and a lot will be forgotten. Get the crap out of the way early.

Jul 13, 2008 - 8:07 am 7. Joshua:

If nothing else, this development illustrates that fundraising and financing ability are vastly overrated as measures of a campaign’s strength.

If you’re a presidential candidate, all money can really buy you is time in the spotlight, and that’s a double-edged sword at best if you’re a weak or politically inexperienced candidate. Lately the more exposure Obama is getting, the more reasons voters are finding to become disillusioned with him. You might say Obama is, however unwittingly, using his big exposure advantage over McCain to do McCain’s own dirty work for him.

Given McCain’s own weaknesses as a candidate, continuing to lay low may be the best strategy for him at this point.

Jul 13, 2008 - 8:23 am 8. Wellspring:

It’s better for Obama if he tacks to the center now. He has another 6 weeks for people on the left to forgive him, and for people in the center to get used to the New Centrist Obama. Also, it positions him to justify more fundraising (people won’t be as motivated to financially support him if he’s going to win anyway). Finally, let’s get all the pro-McCain stories out into the open now, so that they’ll be old news in november.

Jul 13, 2008 - 8:34 am 9. Andrew Zalotocky:

Roger, Obama has two problems. Firstly, to secure the nomination he’s had to position himself well to the left of mainstream opinion to appeal to his party’s radical base, but to win the election he needs to move back to the center. This has to be done in the full glare of old and new media scrutiny, so he can’t avoid publicly contradicting himself on many issues. Kerry had the same problem in 2004 and just ended up cementing his image as Senator Flippy.

Obama’s second problem is his own lack of experience and political achievements. If voters look too closely at him they might conclude that there’s nothing special about him at all.

The solution to both problems is the Obama cult of personality, which I’m firmly convinced is a deliberate political strategy. If he can convince people that he somehow transcends all normal politics he can avoid being judged by the same standards as his rivals. That way, his flip-flopping, pandering and lack of experience ceases to hurt him.

Hillary Clinton had similar problems, and her “inevitability” was an attempt to pull off the same trick in a slightly different way.

The lesson for the Republicans is that the way to beat Obama is to show that he is just an ordinary Chicago machine politician. If the voting public conclude that there’s nothing else to him except some fancy rhetoric, Obama is toast.

If Obama does lose, the lesson for the Democrats will be that they need to drag their base back towards the mainstream so that in future potential Presidential candidates can run as centrists from the beginning, rather than being hamstrung by the need to move way left and then back.

This would also give the more experienced candidates a better chance of winning the nomination, as politicians with some real achievements to their name have already shown where they stand on the left-center scale. They can’t convincingly move left and then back, so if they’ve proven themselves left-wing enough to appeal to the base they are unlikely to appeal to the wider public, and vice versa.

Under the circumstances, the Obama cult of personality was inevitable because it’s the only strategy that gives him any chance of getting elected.

Jul 13, 2008 - 8:59 am 10. Derek:

I’ll stick my neck out. Obama gets 43-45%.

He hasn’t shown that he can win big in big elections. Actually, he has shown the opposite.

His base is radical, way off from the electorate. He can’t divorce his wife, can he?

He is facing a reasonably good candidate, and when they attack his military record as strategy… I suppose they could attack him on immigration reform.

There is so much to define him. Solution to the housing problems? Show pictures of how he ’solved’ Chicago’s housing problem. Etc.

Actually the easiest would be to show video of what he has said during the campaign. Kerry was killed not by Christmas in Cambodia with the Hat, but by people seeing what he said in front of the Senate years ago.

Who’d he beat in the primaries? Hillary (45% negatives even at gunpoint) Clinton. And the other guy, oh yes, the one who lost with Kerry.

This election is crying out for 3rd parties on both sides. Whoever can without cost ignore their hard base to win the center will win. I think McCain has it.

Derek

ps. oh, the race thing. He is colorless unless and until he gives people a reason to not trust him. Then he’s black. He _has_ to be better than the other guy. Equal loses. If at this stage he’s tied with McCain, bad news.

Jul 13, 2008 - 9:07 am 11. sherlock:

I was going to comment on the Dem’s chutzpah in running another phony candidate after Kerry got his ass handed to him.

But what other kind of candidates have they got? Knowing you have the MSM “refs” in your pocket makes it unnecessary to have policies that are attractive and well-thought-out… you can just pander your way to victory. Except you can’t anymore, now that the the MSM has lost its monopoly.

Isn’t it ironic that Orwell’s “telescreens” have become real and are being used to spy on folks, but those folks are the politicians, and we the people are the spies!

Jul 13, 2008 - 9:21 am 12. Steve Y.:

Roger, yes, there are also a number of scenarios where events (Iran, Pakistan) cast a harsh light on Obama’s foreign policy inexperience and movement toward McCain accelerates, but the numerical advantages (Democratic year, money) heavily favor Obama.

I still think of Newsweek’s Evan Thomas’ 2004 remark that the media wants the Democratic candidate to win, and that factor is worth maybe 15 points (?!) in the general. [After this week the media is no longer in the tank for Obama 999-1, maybe just 90-10.] Then there’s this:

Do you think that the difference on TV between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon was wide? Between Barack Obama and John McCain it’s a chasm: youth vs. age, tall vs. short, cool vs. hot, sexy vs. seventy, sonorous vs. snore-mous.

But John McCain has a chance because TV is no longer a new medium. It’s a rare late-night viewer who hasn’t been duped by ads for ginsu knives, miracle weight-loss programs, or courses on how to get rich in real estate (or commodities or options). The smooth-talking con artist is easily familiar, an American archetype dating back to Huckleberry Finn.

If the Republicans can turn Barack Obama into Harold Hill—endearing, funny, eloquent, but in the end all talk, no action and perhaps, even a coward when the chips are down—then John McCain has a puncher’s chance.

Jul 13, 2008 - 9:32 am 13. Donald Campbell:

McCain’s strength is he campaigned as a centrist, and come November, the hard right will hold their noses and vote for him.
Obama’s weakness is that his cult of personality attracted n00bs to the political scene, young idealistic voters that feel betrayed, and it is unknown if they will ‘forgive’ him by November.
I personally predict that Obama will win the popular vote and McCain the electoral one, but I would not bet on anything, except, it will be really close, all the way to November.

Jul 13, 2008 - 9:39 am 14. Tim:

Donald might be right. Bush Derangement Syndrome is sufficiently widespread in the Deep Blue states that the Obamessiah’s vote margins could routinely surpass 65% in those states, while McCain narrowly wins all the states Bush won in ‘04. Obamessiah’s popular vote margin might be 3% more than McCain’s - which I think would generate world-class schadenfrued, personally, for me. Can you imagine the near-suicidal outrage the Obamessiah’s cultists will exhibit if they lose the White House while winning the national popular vote by say, 6 or 7 million votes?

THAT is something to hope for!

Jul 13, 2008 - 10:11 am 15. Batman:

Looking at the Dems now, it is incredible to think back only a few months ago when the MSM was going on and on and on about what a problem the Republicans had with their base and how the coalition was in danger of breaking apart.

All the Dems had to do was run a safe, experienced, centrist to have a guaranteed win. Obama is truly a gift to Republicans.

Jul 13, 2008 - 11:26 am 16. JorgXMcKie:

“All the Dems had to do was run a safe, experienced, centrist to have a guaranteed win.” And that candidate was . . .? Seriously. No matter how the MSM presents, the *average* Dem candidate is well to the left of the electorate. Joe Lieberman excepted, maybe, and he’s a pariah in his own party. Those actually running for office ran the gamut from pretty left of center (Richardson, maybe?) to total moonbat raving loony (Gravel and Kucinich).

That leads to the base problem. In order to fashion a strategy that might win, Obama had to roll up votes in the caucus states, and Axelrod is the guy for that strategy. It *requires* that you energize the n00bs and the moonbats and the severe BDS sufferers because that’s how you outvote the establishment (Hillary’s at the time) in a caucus. To do that, you had to be *very* left of Hillary, different than Edwards/Dodd/Biden and whoever, but not quite into Kucinich territory. Trouble is, once there you may be stuck. His main hope for November is the ungodly MoveOn.org types who are currently attmepting to organize on the ground and intimidate the hell out of *all* their opponents. *IF* their activity starts to get widely publicized that may backfire.

McCain, OTOH, could have just as easily have lost the primary battle, *but* he didn’t have to even try to win the Republican base. Had Thompson started earlier and pushed out Huckabee, that might have made a difference. Anyway, he’s already pissed of the Republican base about as much as he’s likely to. He can run in the center all he wants without sweating it too much. Will the base sit on its hands? Maybe, but they’re not as self-absorbed as the Kossack Kiddies and the DUmmies, so it’s a bit less likely.

I still think Obama will win (and create enormous buyer’s remorse in a year or so), but he could kick it away. I think it’s odd that his campaign motto might as well be: “When you’re unhappy about the present, vote for ignorance.”

Jul 13, 2008 - 12:01 pm 17. Peter G:

What Obama has going for him:

- An economy that is perceived in be in decline

- The incumbent party has a president with an approval rating around 25%

- Charisma

- The chance to make history, i.e., people want to find a reason to vote for him

- Opposed an unpopular war

He might lose the electoral college and win the popular vote. He might also win the electoral college and win the popular vote by a comfortable 5 points or more. The comparison to McGovern doesn’t fit as well as the comparison to Carter, in terms of comparing circumstances (the party in the White House being very unpopular). And Carter won. If Obama loses the popular vote by more than a couple percentage points, I’ll not only eat my hat, I’ll eat Roger’s too.

Jul 13, 2008 - 12:20 pm 18. Tom Grey:

Iraq - Economy - Supreme Court/ family values (mostly, tho not just, abortion).
My best blogpost from 2004 was a 3d analysis of Bush’s win, combining Pew exit poll questions into the above three categories.

Bush got some 21 mil votes on Iraq, like Kerry (42 mil); only 8 mil on economy to Kerry’s 30 (38 mil); but 27 mil to 4 on family values (31 mil). Family values is least common “most important reason”, but was biggest difference for Bush.

As Catholics, particularly, see more of Obama, I doubt that their support of his big gov’t econ will overcome their opposition to abortion. But the economy will be more important this year, which will help Obama — until McCain starts repeating that Obama wants to increase taxes on all companies that are hiring new workers or paying higher wages (the profitable ones).

Jul 13, 2008 - 2:27 pm 19. ricpic:

Only McCain’s hatred of conservatives can pull Obama’s nuts out of the fire.

Jul 13, 2008 - 3:51 pm 20. Infidel753:

As a Democrat, I’m not surprised by these poll results in the least.

This was supposed to be the year when victory was inevitable. We had a solid candidate (Hillary) who could easily have won in November. Instead, for reasons that still defy my comprehension, the party nominated Gilderoy Lockhart.

Meanwhile, the Republicans nominated the one guy on their team who has a real chance to win in what’s shaping up to be their worst election year in decades.

When this donkey dies in November, the coroner’s report is going to say “suicide”.

Jul 13, 2008 - 4:56 pm 21. Terrye:

ricpic:

McCain does not hate conservatives and that kind of attitude is a gift to Democrats. I am so tired of hearing conservatives complain about McCain. They had every chance to get behind a candidate early on and pull for him. They did not and McCain won because he got more votes. Thus far the only hate I am seeing there is coming from the right who are pissed off that they did not get what they wanted…even though they themselves could not seem to decide what and who that was.

Jul 13, 2008 - 5:02 pm 22. Terrye:

I don’t like making predictions, I feel like I am tempting fate, but I don’t think Obama is going to run away with anything. I am not saying he won’t win..but I don’t think it will be a blow out. Too many people don’t trust that guy.

As for McCain’s campaign, let’s remember this is just July. People are already sick of this never ending campaign and election. McCain has time to get aggressive before the election. Right now I think most people are doing their best to ignore the whole thing.

Jul 13, 2008 - 5:06 pm 23. Terrye:

Infidel:

This year might be bad for both parties in a way. The Democrats are running Congress into the ground and they are on the wrong side of energy policy. It might come down to the price of gas.

Jul 13, 2008 - 5:09 pm 24. Xixi:

Mad Dog McCain in a landslide. The far left will stay home, Hillary supporters will vote for McCain [not much difference], Republicans will turn out and every Bubba in America will vote McCain out of disgust and fear.

Jul 13, 2008 - 5:51 pm 25. michaelyi:

When JorgXMcKie responded to someone who confidently opined, “All the Dems had to do was run a safe, experienced, centrist to have a guaranteed win,” with “And that candidate was . . .? Seriously,” JorgXMcKie won the thread.

“All the Dems had to do was run a safe, experienced, centrist to have a guaranteed win.” And that candidate was . . .? Seriously.

Jul 13, 2008 - 6:09 pm 26. Jim C.:

edw wrote, “Maybe Obama won’t be the first woman president.”

Only if he’s careful around Jesse Jackson.

Jul 13, 2008 - 6:18 pm 27. ricpic:

You got us Bubbas pegged right, Xixi.

Jul 13, 2008 - 6:44 pm 28. ChknLtL:

Obama’s got two big problems: too much charisma and too little substance. Fortunately, the MSM’s frenetic desire to put him front and center day after day is showing voters just how trite and sick-making a daily dose of charisma, nuance, stunning ignorance of political and economic realities can be. Makes sense to me that McCain should stand out of the way while the dragon slays himself.

Jul 13, 2008 - 7:16 pm 29. GeoffB:

The question is if McCain can lay low all the way through the election. I don’t think I’m the only who likes McCain more the less I see of him and the more I see of Obama.

This fall, the GOP should run one-minute clips of Obama talking about himself. At the end, McCain can come on and say, “Hi, I’m John McCain, and if you’ll vote for me for President, I’ll never tell you how I’ve evolved as a person.” He’d win in a landslide.

Jul 13, 2008 - 8:13 pm

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