Roger L. Simon

August 1st, 2008 1:18 am

Is McCain peaking too early?

I’m serious.  I expected McCain to be squeaking up behind Obama in mid-October at the best, not before August 1.  This is supposed to be a Democratic year par excellence with the economy tanking (semi, anyway) and the Iraq War dragging on longer than the Peloponessian. (Okay, that baby ran 27 years, but you know what I mean.)  Democrats also historically lap the field over the summer.  Even such certified loxes as Dukakis and Mondale were ahead on Aug. 1.  What’s going on here? Obama is supposed to be the hottest thing since Bono.  If I were McCain, I would be very nervous about peaking too early.  Pretty soon the press will be turning against his trendy opponent and endorsing him. Then McCain will really be in trouble.   If the New York Times backs him, he’s sunk.  The problem is this Schmidt guy is too effective. He should lay back, fumble the ball and do nothing until October 20th at the earliest.  Then his candidate is a sure winner. Otherwise, I’m nervous.

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55 Comments

1. srlucado:

I think of it somewhat differently…not that McCain is peaking, but that Obama is sinking under the weight of his own ego, going from glib to glub.

Scott

Aug 1, 2008 - 4:58 am 2. Banjo:

This is a cursed place of Unbelievers. The One will sort you out when the time is right.

Aug 1, 2008 - 5:21 am 3. Bob:

Either Scott’s right or we can add ‘virtual submarine commander’ to Obama’s scant list of accomplishments. If the latter is correct, ol’ fighter pilot John better keep an eye peeled for virtual torpedos.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:21 am 4. AllenS:

“What’s going on here?”

The more exposure that Obama gets, the less appealing he is.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:24 am 5. Percy Dovetonsils:

Question for Arizona residents – has McCain ever had a really tough election/re-election fight as a Senator or a Congressman? I honestly don’t know.

If he has, I would assume that he’s better suited for a long fight than Obama, who has cruised since his early setback against Bobby Rush.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:25 am 6. K T Cat:

I don’t think McCain is peaking too early, I think he’s going to rout Obama while the Democrats do well in the House and Senate. Obama is running a perfectly dreadful campaign. He is living inside of a bubble right now, a bubble created by an adoring MSM and his own staffers. This notion that “Obama should win easily” is a reflection of the MSM’s total adoration of the guy. In reality, he is the weakest of candidates.

Victor Davis Hanson has a great bit over at NRO that makes this point. Obama’s use of the race card is a totally unforced error. Had he avoided all discussions of race, he probably would have won in a landslide. As it is, he’s destroyed his image as a different kind of politician. Without that image, he’s got nothing to fall back on. His performance in every job he’s had has been sub-par at best. No papers published at Harvard or Chicago, over a hundred “present” votes, no hearings held as a senator – he’s got nothing at all to point to as an accomplishment.

These Triumph of the Will rallies are growing tiresome as well. I can’t imagine that his speech at Invesco will result in any bounce for him at all. If bloviating bromides in front of 200,000 Germans didn’t do him any good, then rallies on a scale never seen in US politics on American soil won’t, either. Instead, it will just be very, very creepy to all but the true believers. Regardless of his status with the MSM, America isn’t ready for Mussolini.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:30 am 7. tim maguire:

McCain’s not ahead in most polls so if he’s peaking, he’s got bigger problems than timing. I agree with the other posters that it’s not so much McCain peaking as Obama tanking. Obama is somebody who seems interesting at first glance, but the more you get to know him, the less you like him.

I expect him to continue tanking.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:33 am 8. JeanE:

I agree with Scott. Since January McCain vs. Obama, McCain has ranged from a high of 47% in January before most voters knew who Obama was, to a low of 40%, shortly before Clinton withdrew from the race. He’s stayed around 43-44% most of the time.

I think there are a LOT of undecided voters- not just independents, but Democrats who aren’t happy with Obama. McCain is not peaking, he’s just holding his ground. That’s a good thing, because it means he won’t have much ground to make up in October.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:34 am 9. Charlie (Colorado):

I think your advice is right, though, Roger: McCain should go easy while letting the Obama electroplate wear off from use. As it is right now, the legacy media is still pushing Obama, and will give great coverage to every Obama assertion that all criticism is “the old politics.” Once the base metal is showing a little more, effective criticism will be possible.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:40 am 10. gk1:

I won’t think McCain is “peaking” till I see the press gush or opine what a dreamy president McCain will make. That’s when I will know he is in danger of peaking. Until then it just appears the hype around obama is dissipating through the daily grind of BHO making foolish statements and pretending he’s always right about everything.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:40 am 11. J.J. Sefton:

I detect (hopefully) a note of sarcasm here, Roger. Let McCain peak – and maintain! Pelosi and Reid have given him “the oil weapon” on a silver platter. Hope he doesn’t muff it.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:43 am 12. Mike_K:

Shelby Steele has been quoted as saying that Obama got this far by being a “bargainer,” one of the two faces of prominent blacks in America (example Oprah), but he doubted that he could keep up the facade. He says that he is now turning into a “Challenger”(examples Sharpton and Jackson) as the pressure gets to him. That is a huge mistake but he is inexperienced and has been shielded from reality.

I’m reading a biography of Wendell Willkie, who had a somewhat similar meteoric rise in politics in 1940. He had a much deeper resume than Obama although he had never held elective office. He was also terrific in unscripted moments but did not do a written speech well. In those areas, he resembles McCain, especially McCain in 2000. He was a fascinating man and it is interesting to think about what would have happened if he had been nominated again in 1944. Roosevelt was obviously feeble and Truman was unknown.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:44 am 13. RE:

McCain peaking?

That’s funny. McCain is just ‘there’. Changes in the numbers are a result of people wising up to the Obama charade. I don’t think McCain is winning anybody over. His campaign has been amazingly lame and lifeless.

Those he insulted for demanding enforcement of immigration law, the religious, freedom of speech supporters, etc, are biting their tongues this election.

I agree there will be a rout in November – but it will be a rejection of Obama – not enthusiasm for McCain – that does it.

Aug 1, 2008 - 7:55 am 14. J:

If McCain’s numbers had spiked I might agree with the “peaking” concept, but they’ve been pretty stable. As others have pointed out, it’s more an issue of Obama’s numbers declining.

“the legacy media is still pushing Obama, and will give great coverage to every Obama assertion that all criticism is “the old politics”

Somebody needs to tell BHO that the old politics didn’t grow old from lack of success.

“I think there are a LOT of undecided voters- not just independents, but Democrats”

Probably not as many undecided Democrats as it appears – I think Bradley effect is going to be big in this election.

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:15 am 15. Whitehall:

Let’s not forget that the Democratic nomination is not truly decided. The superdelegates can still swing enough votes to make Clinton the nominee. I think she’d be much tougher to beat.

If Obama stays in, McCain will prove that one can win playing defense.

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:34 am 16. Captain Hate:

McCain won’t peak until the Uhbamerr campaign brings in campaigning genius Bob Shrum.

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:35 am 17. dougf:

It was just yesterday that McCain was running a terrible campaign. All those (name withheld) Republicans said so.

Obama will continue to sink while McCain just has to throw him some anchors to grab every so often. And along that line the ‘Celeb’ ad was a stroke of genius. Not only did it frazzle Obama but it got his media cheerleaders in a lather of indignation. It hit at least 3 crucial targets(personal emptiness, self-entitled arrogance,cult-like devotion) dead center and all it did was use Obama’s own performance in Berlin as a backdrop. Thank goodness McCain simply ignores the supposed Republican ‘opinion makers’ such as the staff at NRO. They all think it was a juvenile mistake to use bubble-headed ‘celebs’ to make a point about Obama. They as usual are all wrong.

Again.

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:53 am 18. Ernie:

It’s all part of Hillary’s master plan I tell you. If Obama looks unelectable by the convention she’ll fight for the nomination, and as we’ve seen in past elections (e.g. New Jersey) the Democrats won’t be stopped by something as silly as rules or laws if there is a chance to win.

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:04 am 19. David Thomson:

A growing percentage of likely voters realize that Barack “Barry” Obama is an empty suit. John McCain is perceived as a safer choice, the lesser of evils. Obama is an intellectually shallow individual. He would cause enormous damage to the economy if he were to become president. It is mind boggling that Obama is actually demanding that oil companies give $1,000 to each American family. Didn’t he learn anything about economics at Harvard University? Such an action would most assuredly push the economy into a major recession.

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:10 am 20. Laaz:

I suspect Roger is being a little bit sarcastic… given that McCain gets one minute of coverage for each hour Obama receives, it’s a little bit silly to suggest, seriously suggest, that McCain could be peaking… if he is, I’d hate to see what sinking would look like.

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:15 am 21. Orion:

Is it hard to type with your tongue stuck that hard into your cheek? As others have pointed out, McCain isn’t peaking so much as Obamessiah is sagging. He was supposed to get a big bounce in the polls from his Europe Trip; instead his various missteps along the way have voters wondering about him.

Despite some scorn in the MSM, McCain has been running a fairly conservative, gaffe-free campaign all summer. Like an experienced boxer his campaign manager has been waiting for the “rookie” to screw up and he has, first by blowing off meeting with wounded US soldiers – TWICE! – and now by squealing like a sissy boy about the McCain campaign’s latest campaign ad. Obamessiah seems sensitive to not looking like all the “other” presidents on dollar bills, doesn’t he?

I expect Obama to get a small bump in the polls at the convention then start sliding again all the way to Election Day, where unless McCain has shown up at a rally with a tiara and his pants on backwards he’ll easily crush the empty suit. Hillary will quietly, indirectly, say, “See? I told you so!” and start prepping for her 2012 run. And the politics wheel will keep right on rolling.

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:38 am 22. Roy Lofquist:

Mr. Steele’s analysis is sophisticated and elegant. Spot on. My far less thoughtful comment to my friends for a couple of months has been: “If Obama says something that people think could have come from Jackson or Sharpton he’s a dead duck”.

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:41 am 23. Lightnin' Hopkins:

After Burning Man (Denver Edition) and a few debates, where Obama’s vacuous platitudes ring hollow for swing voters who are looking for concrete plans – if not solutions – McCain should edge him out by a few points or at least electorally. When you throw in the Dems “proper tire inflation” approach to energy (brilliant!) and the inevitable Iranian showdown, I’m liking Mac’s odds more and more.

Still, you can count on the now industry standard way-off exit polling and patented howls of “disenfranchisement” come Election Day.

CH: Ah yes, the Midas Touch of Bob Shrum — that’s gotta be worth five to ten points right there!

Aug 1, 2008 - 10:00 am 24. Seven Machos:

Here’s the slogan that McCain should use:

Serious times call for experienced leadership.

It hits all the right notes. It explicitly calls attention to McCain’s experience and implicitly calls attention to Obama’s lack of experience. It turns a potential weakness — the doldrums that Americans seem to generally perceive — into a strength. It’s pithy but not overly jingoistic or advertisey.

I’m giving it out, free. No royalties, though a place in the cabinet would be a nice gesture.

Aug 1, 2008 - 10:05 am 25. pashley:

Obama has a rock-solid base among blacks, the young, and urban liberal males in primaries in February.

Obama has a rock-solid base among blacks, the young, and liberal males in August.

Obama will have a a rock-solid majority with blacks, the young, and liberal males in November.

McCain wins by 5 points.

Aug 1, 2008 - 10:07 am 26. Richard:

The celebrity add appears to have touched a few weak spots in the Obama armor. There are a plethora of Obama moments that can be gently mocked in a similar light manner.

For example, the repeated use of “THIS IS THE MOMENT” in his speeches is getting tiresome. Perhaps we need a “this is the moment” contest. – when the oceans began to recede; when the polar ice caps began to refreeze, when the polar bears climbed back onto their icebergs, when Al Gore chose to fly coach…..

By the convension, will Obama stand before the gathered crowd and dare to say, “and this is the moment when ……

Aug 1, 2008 - 10:27 am 27. cubanbob:

McCain is holding his own in spite of himself. What a horrible candidate and I’m voting for him. Obama is a joke like the rest of the democrats. Any sane person picked from the phone book is probably better qualified to be president than Obama and just as likely a better campaigner than McCain.

If McCain actually wants to win and not have a failed presidency he better start campaigning hard and nasty (just point the idiocy of the democrats)not just against Obama but against the entire democrat party,from president to congress to the governors and state legislatures to town hall and dog catcher. They all have to go. Just say NO to democrats. He should start in Massachusetts by campaigning there and publicly supporting the state income tax repeal along with backing all local republican candidates.

Aug 1, 2008 - 10:57 am 28. ic:

Obama: too much self regard, too little achievements; too much money, too little to say.

His baby blue seal was ludicrous, his European trip posing as a president meeting world leaders turned a presumptive candidate into a presumptuous candidate. European politicians posed with him, but were embarrassed by his crass electioneering. His message was: I am inevitable, I’m anointed by world leaders. Americans are not impressed. Europeans may defer to their “betters”, Americans are their own “betters”. The intelligentia tell them Obama is the One, voters ask: Where is the beef?

Aug 1, 2008 - 11:18 am 29. NRA Life Member:

Assuming he’s not peaking early and can continue building, I’d like to see McCain develop a coattail strategy to avoid the Congressional and Senatorial debacle that is predicted for the GOP. I’ve never seen a Republican candidate actively campaign within all 402 Congressional districts saying something like, “I thank all of you for your support, but in order for me to be truly successful and justify the confidence you will show by voting for me, I need you to send this other fine Republican to Washington with me to provide legislative back-up.”

Aug 1, 2008 - 11:33 am 30. K T Cat:

NRA Life Member- I’d like to see Republican candidates worthy of the effort. Instead, we have $400B deficits, enormously bloated highway, farm, education and prescription drug budgets. We get scandal after scandal and then listen to the GOP hierarchy talk about limited government and accountability. Finally, we get to listen to Rush and Sean and Laura and the rest endlessly defend the party.

They deserve everything they’re going to get.

Aug 1, 2008 - 11:50 am 31. R. Pete:

I think Roger is poking the beehive. Two items: The Obama campaign is a super magnet for race hustlers as has been demonstrated over and over again. Hillary was sunk as her campaign was perceived as having used race as a weapon.

Second: The McCain camp, or any other politician of pallor finding themselves up against Obama has(d) one chance- enforce zero tolerance in reference to race for the duration and immediately denounce anyone even remotely connected to the campaign for the slightest variance.

It’s the old ‘give em’ enough rope’ strategy.

Obama has taken the bait and it’s not pretty. McCain should continue to lay low in front of the cheese displays until forced to respond to such stunts as the World Tour, and then reply with with humor. The humorless left will destroy itself.

Aug 1, 2008 - 11:58 am 32. NRA Life Member:

I concede your criticism K T Cat. The GOP needs more of Tom Coburn and Mike Pence, but the larger point is that if outrageous spending, ridiculous energy policies, appeasement to terrorists, racial pandering and overall enlargement of the nanny state are reprehensible to a voter, and if that voter is supporting McCain, he won’t be able to do much about it with a left wing socialist Congress and Senate. On the other hand, this approach would be ludicrous if McCain tried it with Ted Stevens and Don Young.

Aug 1, 2008 - 12:17 pm 33. Xixi:

No matter how bad McCain might be, Obama is far more frightening. My wife keeps saying Adolph Hitler every time she sees an Obama advert. I predict McCain in a landslide and some riots in the streets.

Aug 1, 2008 - 1:07 pm 34. ic:

K T Cat, Most current politicians deserve to lose. Too bad the choice is between a Republican and a Democrat. Nobody believed earmarks could get worse after the Dems took over, now we know. Btw, most of those who talked about limited govt. and accountability are gone.

You don’t like prescription drug, how about universal health care under Obama? $400B deficits, including billions of earmarks: Obama did his fair share of earmarks in his short time in the Senate, McCain is against earmarks. Education: Obama appeases the Teachers Union, McCain is pro school choice. Farm bill: McCain is against, Obama for. Take your pick, or brood on the side line.

Aug 1, 2008 - 1:08 pm 35. Neo:

We still have the post-convention peaks to go.

Aug 1, 2008 - 1:56 pm 36. The Fop:

Dukakis was ahead by 18 points in the Summer of ‘88 against the VP of a very popular President in a time of peace and prosperity.

This was supposed to be the year that the American people finally figured out just how evil and incompetent the Repbulicans are. The Iraq war was supposed to be the straw that broke the camel’s back….yes, we always knew what bloodthirsty, warmongering, miltiary/industrial scoundrels the Republicans were, but the Iraq war proved it to everyone once and for all!! The anti-war rallies of 1968 were supposed to prevent something like the Iraq war from ever happening again. But now that the American people see what a “mistake” the Iraq war was, and that great day of 1/20/09 finally comes, it’ll be 1968 for now and forever, because the American people finally get it!! From San Francisco to Staten Island, people of all shapes and sizes, colors and creeds will be singing along to Laura Nyro…”ain’t gonna study war no more”.

So why is Obama clinging to a small single digit lead? Because he’s unqualified, he comes across as unqualified, and he’s arrogant. What do these tight Summertime polls mean? It means Obama has on chance of winning.

Aug 1, 2008 - 2:56 pm 37. The Fop:

Make that “no chance of winning”…damn keypad.

Aug 1, 2008 - 2:58 pm 38. Terrye:

People are getting tired of Obama. I have to wonder if by November they might be getting tired of some other Democrats as well. Just look at oil drilling for instance.

Aug 1, 2008 - 3:01 pm 39. Jay:

Hey Lem, if you’re out there, please tell me you got your screen name from “The Shield,” the best TV drama ever.

If not, Google the show and get back to me.

Aug 1, 2008 - 3:22 pm 40. bc:

The trouble with desperate grabs at power by leftists is, well, they look desperate, and grabby.

Aug 1, 2008 - 3:42 pm 41. Lem:

No Jay, Lem is short for Lemuel. I did watch one season of ‘the shield’ and enjoyed it.

My impression is the McCain’s ad, portraying Obama as just another celebrity got under Obama’s skin. (no pun intended)

If the world tour bounce is true there was no reason for Obama to be talking about how he looks or that he’s got a strange name. Unless his own polls are telling him something else Obama showed a really thin skin.

Another reason not to vote for him.

Aug 1, 2008 - 4:00 pm 42. Mike_K:

Whoever is doing the McCain ads now is a genius. The celebrity ad was great and the new one out today is even better and funnier. I’ve got it up on my blog at

.

The best part of it and the real genius is that these are viral ads. Millions of people are going to You Tube to see them. That doesn’t cost anything. They don’t have to run on TV because they are entertaining enough that people will seek them out. This is powerful if the guy can keep it up.

Aug 1, 2008 - 4:50 pm 43. Seven Machos:

Let’s imagine that Hillary Clinton was the candidate right now, just for fun. What do you think the horse-race numbers would be?

Try to be objective, and realize that while maybe 15 percent of the electorate adores her and a solid quarter of the electorate hates her with an unbridled passion, the other 60 percent is up for grabs.

Aug 1, 2008 - 4:59 pm 44. vnjagvet:

BHO’s message has not “graduated” from primary to general election type rhetoric. Further, it has not migrated from liberal shibboleths and platitudes to interesting and insightful observations about fiscal problems, energy problems, national security problems and the like.

In a word, he is becoming boring.

For someone so young and with the promise of excitement he offered early in the election cycle, this is the kiss of enui. Enui spells big trouble in November.

Also, the demographics are not getting much better, as Pashley pointed out this morning in his comment. 95% of the black vote, 65% of the hispanic vote and 40% of the white vote ain’t going to cut it.

That is the direction he is headed with the themes he is pushing.

Aug 1, 2008 - 5:10 pm 45. ricpic:

What stuns me is that Team Axelrod doesn’t have a tighter hold on Obama.

Team Axelrod must understand that any signals to white voters that BO is an angry/resentful black, as opposed to a “nice” black, will hurt his chances with them big time. And yet he’s taken a couple of blatant swipes at America (read whites) recently.

Which can only indicate that Team Axelrod has lost control of Obama. Without careful monitoring Obama will not be able to keep his hatred of America under wraps. McCain will win.

Aug 1, 2008 - 5:34 pm 46. promoguy:

“McCain will win.”

Si se puede.

I actually got frightene when The Bammer was overseas that the zealots would carry him forward. Now I seriously have my doubts. Someone mentioned the Bradley effect and I’ve always thought that it was a big deal. You certainly don’t want to announce that you’re not voting for the black guy.

Aug 1, 2008 - 5:40 pm 47. Terrye:

K.T.:

When the Democrats took over in 2006 that deficit was about $250 billion. Now it is over $400 billion and neither Bush nor McCain supported that farm bill. In fact McCain is a fiscal conservative. The truth is whatever you think of Republicans on this issue, Democrats are far more likely to tax and spend. It is what they do and they are not ashamed to admit it either. A regular bunch of Robin Hoods.

I respect John McCain. I think he has paid his dues several times over and whether or not I agree with all his positions, I don’t doubt his character.

Obama on the other hand creeps me out.

Aug 1, 2008 - 6:01 pm 48. Lem:

I had CSPAN in the background the other night (yes, I admit it)

I heard Mitch McConnell offer democrats a deal to write in to law a $10 a gallon of gasoline trigger to approve offshore drilling.

In other words there would be no offshore drilling until gasoline reached 10 dollars a gallon.

Democrats rejected it.

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:42 pm 49. Dave S.:

It’s overexposure. NSync, Backstreet Boys, Hammer, Britney … His adoring press is his worst enemy right now. You can’t get away from his image on tv, on magazines, in the newpaper. The public is getting burned out on the guy. The trip to Europe was the capper. While the coastal elites adore everything Euro the rest of us say ‘you can have it’. To the MSM I say, keep up the good work!

Aug 1, 2008 - 8:59 pm 50. Lem:

$10 a gallon of gas does not constitute an emergency?

http://tinyurl.com/6eqmf7

Aug 1, 2008 - 9:39 pm 51. California Dreamer:

$10 gas is an emergency in 2010. In 2017 it’s a reality. That is why authorizing offshore drilling now is a winning strategy. Even the Dem-leaning pollsters here in the Golden State have to report that voters are swinging to “yes” on offshore drilling–and they hate that. 30 comments back, someone asked “didn’t BO learn anything about economics at Havaaad?” The answer is “of course not, he was a law student”. McCain may underestimate his economic understanding a bit–and he needs remedial supply side study–but BO is merely the latest in a long line of useful idiots.

Aug 2, 2008 - 1:29 am 52. Mike_K:

The best part of the McConnell video is that it is Ken Salazar who keeps objecting. He ran as a conservative Democrat and is the single biggest opponent of extracting oil from the oil shale deposits of Colorado, which would be a huge benefit to the state in money and jobs. He was sure a good liar when he was running for the office.

Aug 2, 2008 - 8:26 am 53. Dinocrat » Blog Archive » Preparing the battlefield:

[...] success, and Senator McCain is certainly doing well against his opponent at the moment. Indeed, Roger Simon wonders if Senator McCain might be peaking too [...]

Aug 2, 2008 - 2:12 pm 54. Mongo Mere Pawn:

“Even such certified loxes as Dukakis and Mondale were ahead on Aug. 1.”

Dukakis and Mondale were ahead on August 1st because their party conducted its convention in July and they were the beneficiaries of the usual PR bounce. The reason the Democrats are conducting their convention at the end of August this time around is because they have concluded that it gives Republicans less time to knock the PR bounce down. John Kerry lost after a July 2004 convention. Bill Clinton won after a late August 1996 convention. Al Gore “won” the popular vote after a mid-August 2000 convention. The only Democrat to win since 1980 after a July convention was Clinton in 1992, and he needed all the help he could get from Ross Perot.

The Democrats convene in Denver the week of August 23rd. The Republicans convene in Minnesota the following week. Early voting begins October 20th, so there will be just a smidgen more than six weeks between the end of the Republican convention on September 4th and the beginning of early voting, and most of that time will be taken up with debates, three presidential and one vice presidential. In other words, the Democrats intend to manufacture their PR bounce and then run out the clock. Obama’s World Tour Summer 2008 was intended to keep him above the fray into the Olympics, and to give him an air of inevitability that, given the PR bounce of the later convention, would make it impossible for McCain to catch up.

What they didn’t anticipate was that McCain would “stoop” to lampooning Obama with his own grandiosity. I mean, seriously, “we are the change we’ve been waiting for”, “this is the moment the oceans began to recede”, his own presidential seal, meeting with world leaders as though he is already President, and, now, having his personal chair on “O-Force One” embroidered with the word, “President.” I’m going to have to apologize to Senator Kerry for thinking HIM arrogant.

Obama is flatlined in the daily tracking polls, in a statistical dead heat with McCain with only his choice of a running mate between him and his convention bounce. And as to whether he even gets his bounce, McCain’s recent ads render his choice of venue for his acceptance speech problematic, playing into McCain’s “The One” meme, and no matter how hard the MSM wants to avoid talking about it, they will spend the entire convention wondering how the Leni Riefenstahl look will play with blue-collar Democrats and independents.

Speaking of his VP choice, whether he makes his selection public this week or waits until the convention, the Hillary/PUMA factor remains a significant meme that the MSM cannot avoid. Lanny Davis will be ubiquitous, and whomever Obama selects will have to pass muster with Hillary supporters.

McCain can keep Obama off balance by continuing to highlight Obama’s cult of personality, especially by suggesting that Obama considers himself above the give and take of a political campaign, highlighting his flip flops on public funding and townhalls.

He can also keep the heat on by doubling down and visiting ANWR with Governor Palin. Even if he ultimately does not select her as his running mate, his visit will keep the PUMAs stirred up and highlight the difference between himself and Obama on drilling, especially if he changes his mind on ANWR drilling, which is the “bridge too far” for Democrats.

Finally (and this is something he can do all by his lonesome), since the moratorium on offshore drilling is scheduled to sunset September 30th, and can only be renewed if reenacted through both houses of Congress and signed by the President, McCain can pledge to personally filibuster any attempt by the Democrats to reenact the moratorium, even if they cynically attach it to essential legislation. If he does this, and it looks like his Republican colleagues in the Senate will sustain his filibuster, watch the price of oil plunge just like it did when the President rescinded the executive order on off shore drilling. All the while Obama will be voting with his colleagues for cloture.

Aug 3, 2008 - 8:27 pm 55. exdem13:

It’s not that McCain is peaking yet, it’s that the Obamessiah has peaked and is riding the mine car down the other side.

Aug 4, 2008 - 3:34 pm

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