Dukakis and Mondale were ahead on August 1st because their party conducted its convention in July and they were the beneficiaries of the usual PR bounce. The reason the Democrats are conducting their convention at the end of August this time around is because they have concluded that it gives Republicans less time to knock the PR bounce down. John Kerry lost after a July 2004 convention. Bill Clinton won after a late August 1996 convention. Al Gore “won” the popular vote after a mid-August 2000 convention. The only Democrat to win since 1980 after a July convention was Clinton in 1992, and he needed all the help he could get from Ross Perot.

The Democrats convene in Denver the week of August 23rd. The Republicans convene in Minnesota the following week. Early voting begins October 20th, so there will be just a smidgen more than six weeks between the end of the Republican convention on September 4th and the beginning of early voting, and most of that time will be taken up with debates, three presidential and one vice presidential. In other words, the Democrats intend to manufacture their PR bounce and then run out the clock. Obama’s World Tour Summer 2008 was intended to keep him above the fray into the Olympics, and to give him an air of inevitability that, given the PR bounce of the later convention, would make it impossible for McCain to catch up.

What they didn’t anticipate was that McCain would “stoop” to lampooning Obama with his own grandiosity. I mean, seriously, “we are the change we’ve been waiting for”, “this is the moment the oceans began to recede”, his own presidential seal, meeting with world leaders as though he is already President, and, now, having his personal chair on “O-Force One” embroidered with the word, “President.” I’m going to have to apologize to Senator Kerry for thinking HIM arrogant.

Obama is flatlined in the daily tracking polls, in a statistical dead heat with McCain with only his choice of a running mate between him and his convention bounce. And as to whether he even gets his bounce, McCain’s recent ads render his choice of venue for his acceptance speech problematic, playing into McCain’s “The One” meme, and no matter how hard the MSM wants to avoid talking about it, they will spend the entire convention wondering how the Leni Riefenstahl look will play with blue-collar Democrats and independents.

Speaking of his VP choice, whether he makes his selection public this week or waits until the convention, the Hillary/PUMA factor remains a significant meme that the MSM cannot avoid. Lanny Davis will be ubiquitous, and whomever Obama selects will have to pass muster with Hillary supporters.

McCain can keep Obama off balance by continuing to highlight Obama’s cult of personality, especially by suggesting that Obama considers himself above the give and take of a political campaign, highlighting his flip flops on public funding and townhalls.

He can also keep the heat on by doubling down and visiting ANWR with Governor Palin. Even if he ultimately does not select her as his running mate, his visit will keep the PUMAs stirred up and highlight the difference between himself and Obama on drilling, especially if he changes his mind on ANWR drilling, which is the “bridge too far” for Democrats.

Finally (and this is something he can do all by his lonesome), since the moratorium on offshore drilling is scheduled to sunset September 30th, and can only be renewed if reenacted through both houses of Congress and signed by the President, McCain can pledge to personally filibuster any attempt by the Democrats to reenact the moratorium, even if they cynically attach it to essential legislation. If he does this, and it looks like his Republican colleagues in the Senate will sustain his filibuster, watch the price of oil plunge just like it did when the President rescinded the executive order on off shore drilling. All the while Obama will be voting with his colleagues for cloture.

http://tinyurl.com/6eqmf7

I heard Mitch McConnell offer democrats a deal to write in to law a $10 a gallon of gasoline trigger to approve offshore drilling.

In other words there would be no offshore drilling until gasoline reached 10 dollars a gallon.

Democrats rejected it.

When the Democrats took over in 2006 that deficit was about $250 billion. Now it is over $400 billion and neither Bush nor McCain supported that farm bill. In fact McCain is a fiscal conservative. The truth is whatever you think of Republicans on this issue, Democrats are far more likely to tax and spend. It is what they do and they are not ashamed to admit it either. A regular bunch of Robin Hoods.

I respect John McCain. I think he has paid his dues several times over and whether or not I agree with all his positions, I don’t doubt his character.

Obama on the other hand creeps me out.

Si se puede.

I actually got frightene when The Bammer was overseas that the zealots would carry him forward. Now I seriously have my doubts. Someone mentioned the Bradley effect and I’ve always thought that it was a big deal. You certainly don’t want to announce that you’re not voting for the black guy.