Watching the news these days, you would think Obama is headed for a Reagan-like landslide. Zogby seems to think so. But then an AP poll pops up with the candidates too close to call. I tend to think it’s somewhere in the middle but we all know what opinions are like… Everybody’s got one.
More interesting to me as a mystery writer is this report (ht: Jamie Irons) from the Postliberal blog. Have a look.
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19 Comments
1. Jason B:Zogby is generally wrong on elections, and usually tilts things horribly for the Democrats in their polling.
The best bet is to look at the “likely voters” or “traditional voters” polls, because they actually have a history of voting that you can track. The problem with the current state of voting is that there’s alot of new voters that have been entered into the system, and no one knows if they will actually vote.
Why? They’re the youth of America, and they typically vote Democrat at a young age. The problem is, is that when they come to vote, many are slackers, and don’t. Or vote Republican. I’m pretty sure that’s why they’ve had such high numbers for Obama in the past few months, and they’re beginning to realize that it doesn’t match up with their internal numbers. Throw out the Zogby, NYT/ABC/CBS/WaPo polls, and see where things are with the others.
Oct 22, 2008 - 3:48 pm 2. Steve:Why doesn’t someone just ask Obama if he wrote the book and if there was a ghostwriter? We need another Joe!
Oct 22, 2008 - 4:27 pm 3. Anita Hope:Regarding the “POSTLIBERAL” blog, “Dreams Of My Fathers” and who truly wrote it, leaves one more confused than ever. I find it difficult for a young boy
Oct 22, 2008 - 4:32 pm 4. david levavi:to be as confused as he claims to have been, go on through college and grad school, completing his studies and law degree, then taking credit for a book
regarding his confusion as his own. It makes one wonder, is he still living in a state of confusion, making promises he more than likly will not be able to
fulfill with his Democratic Congress questioning many of his actions once they see where he is leading them.
My phone has wrung many timeswith poll takers and when I say I am an indie they ask two questions which when answered would declare how I am voting. I refuse to comply and they hang up. The question is usually about a Dem or Rep. local canidate which I guess tells them how I am leading, I went Indie so I could vote for whoever I believe will do the right thing for our city and country, thus my opinion of Poll’s is negative.
One other thing I wonder about regarding Sen. Obama, his grandmother is seriously, why has he waited till Thurs. to fly over to be with her, is he again confused regarding family?
How will he separate his confusions of RIGHT FROM WRONG, IN DECISION MAKING, once president?
Political autobiographies are routinely ghostwritten. What is interesting—and revealing–in this instance is Obama’s claim of sole authorship. Like his downplaying of his relationship with Ayers, Wright, Rezco, and ACORN it speaks volumes about his character or, more exactly, the lack thereof. Obama has no executive experience but he’s a practiced and seasoned prevaricator.
In any event, composite characters and approximately recalled conversations, which Obama freely admits are the stuff of his “autobiographies,” hardly amounts to reliable personal history. Alex Haley introduced “faction” to American literature and Obama is self-professed practitioner of the art.
But never be so racist as to call it Black fiction. Its affirmative-action truth.
Oct 22, 2008 - 5:53 pm 5. Yevgraf:If Obama wins, as soon as the day after, be silent, wait and remember this comeback strategy from Dr. Zhivago:
My task was to organize defeat, so as to hasten the onset of revolution. The party looked to the peasant conscript soldiers – many of whom were wearing their first real pair of boots. When the boots had worn out, they’d be ready to listen. When the time came, I was able to take three whole battalions out of the front lines with me – the best day’s work I ever did. But for now, there was nothing to be done. There were too many volunteers. Most of it was mere hysteria.
Oct 22, 2008 - 5:58 pm 6. srlucado:A few years back, Gregg Easterbrook (not exactly a conservative goon) took it for granted that Hillary Clinton’s autobiography had been ghost-written, and repeatedly wrote commentary asking why she wouldn’t just ‘fess up.
Well, you know…a Clinton, tell the truth? It is to laugh.
But Mr. Perfect, well, that’s a different story. Yet there’s no evidence that he’s ever written anything, yet the entire media seems unconcerned.
Putting the polls aside, liberal America is about to have its dream come true – an ungodly liberal president and majorities in Congress.
Who will they blame (since blame is all they’re capable of) when everything nose-dives straight to hell?
Where’s Obama going to find the ghost-writer for “How I Saved America”? Nobody’s that good at science fiction.
Scott
P.S. Reports indicate an increasing suicide rate in the US. No wonder.
Oct 22, 2008 - 7:32 pm 7. Barry Dauphin:The MSM is still at the bar downing a few. They will wake up from their drunk at some point. The question is how they will react to that. I predict it will be by drinking the “hair of the dog”, and they’ll go on another bender.
Oct 22, 2008 - 8:09 pm 8. Barry Dauphin:In Tina Fey’s last impersonation of Palin, her first line was quite funny if you support McCain/Palin even though I think she intended it to mock Palin. It was a mock news conference and she says, “I’d like to welcome members of the liberal elite media to the press conference and members of the liberal regular media too.” Far, far truer than Tina is willing to admit.
Oct 22, 2008 - 8:13 pm 9. Lightnin' Hopkins:I dunno. The AP poll, Joe the Senator’s gaffetastic illumination of the very thing that Team Obama least wants voters to focus on (besides Ayers), national security. Throw in that other guy named Joe, and the presumptuous measuring of the White House drapes that’s going on (everyone remembers the fake Presidential Seal episode, right?…How about ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’?), and I’m suddenly cautiously optimistic again.
It almost makes me want to buy a (used) copy of ‘Dreams’ – just to tear it into A Million Little Pieces. Just kidding, inevitable angry troll guy…I *love* fiction; and as we all know, we do live in “fictitious times.”
Oct 22, 2008 - 9:38 pm 10. Larry J:Personally, most polls are little more than manufactured news. For a poll to have any accuracy, it needs the sample to reflect the population at large (not 50% democrats as a recent CBS poll) and ask good questions. Never trust a poll that doesn’t publish the questions (e.g. “Would you prefer to vote for Obama or have a sharp stick jammed in your eye?”).
Fortunately, the only poll that counts takes place less than 2 weeks from new. In many places, it’s already underway. I’m going to vote this afternoon. Next week, my wife and I are leaving for a 2 week cruise that spans both her birthday and the election.
Oct 23, 2008 - 6:24 am 11. NJclosetconservative:Roger L.,
Interesting post from postliberal. Anyone in the publishing biz would recognize Obama’s explanation as pure bunk.
As an unpublished writer Obama would have had to submit a book proposal with a knock-your-socks-off sample chapter to get a book deal.
“Several publishers” just don’t call up and ask someone to become a writer and hope something brilliant will result. It just doesn’t happen.
Obama becoming the first black man to edit the Harvard Law Review (with zero published writing) is simply not a significant enough event to cause the publishing world to seek him out and convince him to write a memoir.
How would they have know he had an interesting past? To most people at that time, he was Barry Dunham from Hawaii.
Just another example of Obama’s lies and deceit and the cynical political construction of his persona.
Oct 23, 2008 - 6:25 am 12. Jamie Irons:Somewhat OT question to srlucado…
Scott,
You wrote:
P.S. Reports indicate an increasing suicide rate in the US. No wonder…
Do you have a citation? (I’m not doubting you, just curious.) The suicide rate tends to be very stable.
Jamie Irons
Oct 23, 2008 - 7:36 am 13. David Thomson:There is now conclusive evidence that Obama is not getting any more of the youth vote than did John Kerry! And yet, this was one of the reasons why pollsters have heavily weighed their polls in favor of Obama. The sad thing is that this professional incompetency may turn into something of a self fulfilling prophecy. Obama has raised millions of dollars because of the unprecedented premises of these pollsters. Their results have, perhaps more importantly, demoralized Republicans. I still think, however, the odds are on the side of John McCain and Sarah Plain. Sensible voters must, first last and foremost, vote their fears of an Obama presidency. They must not listen to the more pessimistic pollsters.
Oct 23, 2008 - 10:13 am 14. Lightnin' Hopkins:Jamie: Re; srlucado’s mention of the rise in the national suicide rate. It’s up slightly since 1999, with the highest increase among middle-aged women – 3.9 percent. I imagine the rate goes up and down from decade to decade, adjusting for population growth.
http://tinyurl.com/69bpfb
Oct 23, 2008 - 1:06 pm 15. Charles:I think the races are much closer in Pennsylvania than is being reported. I live in Virginia in Fairfax County. The polls here tilt slightly for obama but I just don’t think he’s going to get it. Fairfax county has been moving democratic over the last election cycles but Palin received enthusiastic crowds here when she visited. And outside the inner cities here I just don’t see Obama doing much.
Oct 23, 2008 - 2:19 pm 16. Mareyel:Early voting in Florida is heavy, both in person and absentee ballot drop offs. “Conventional wisdom” has it that the Obamots are voting in person and the McCain supporters are voting absentee. I voted absentee this morning…you can probably guess who I voted for.
Oct 23, 2008 - 2:39 pm 17. mojo:“Short stop? I don’t give a…”
Oct 23, 2008 - 2:45 pm 18. Minerva:Jennifer Rubin was on the Lou Dobbs program today and PJM was mentioned. Then I realized what a wonderful thing PJM will be in the times to come. To Hell with Rama! Don’t mourn after the election. Let us gather at PJM and elect Roger our Pope!!
Oct 23, 2008 - 6:31 pm 19. jamie hunt:Interesting to see the Obama/Ayers “Dreams” ghostwrite/edit story rise up through the blogosphere. Postliberal and Jack Cashill make strong arguments.
When Obama said of Ayers during the debate for the Dems PA primary “He’s not somebody I exchange ideas from (sic) on a regular basis” I think he might have given the game away.
Oct 24, 2008 - 1:32 pm