Iran spreads its influence throughout the Middle East: in Syria, in Lebanon (where Hezbollah has created a virtual state within a state), in Gaza, in Egypt (through the Muslim Brotherhood), and who knows where else. Through its allies, and through its championing of the Palestinian cause, Iran rallies the masses to its causes and hopes to destabilize “moderate” pro-US Arab governments that are not under its influence. It’s questionable even if the Iranian government cares about the Palestinians, or whether it’s using them to unite the Middle East under its direction, much like Nasser tried in the 1960’s.

But if Iran aspires to become the regional superpower, it must first take on Israel, the current regional power. Israel is not out to challenge its neighbors. Rather, it uses its superior military strength to preserve a balance of power in which none of its neighbors can seriously challenge Israel. By taking out the region’s strongest military presence, Iran would cement itself as the new regional hegemon, and have the added benefit of rallying millions in the Arab street.

What would Iran gain as a regional power? Having controlling influence over a region with the world’s greatest oil supplies would force the West to see Iran as a global player. Iran could negotiate with the West from a position of strength. What better way to preserve and advance the Islamic Revolution? It’s also Iran’s way of seeking revenge for all the times the West has trampled it, from occupying the country during WWII, to foisting and preserving the Shah on the nation for so many decades.

What does this mean to Israel? If Iran became the regional power, it’s own influence in the West would be greatly diminished. Though the West would likely continue to see Iran with disgust, it would nonetheless be forced to accommodate it, putting Israel’s needs in second place.

So there is a strong geopolitical calculation in Iran’s rhetoric against Israel. Of course, this is on top of the inherent hate for the Jews that the current Iranian government has. The point is this: even if one were to (foolishly) discard the apocalyptic predictions of nuclear warheads falling on Tel Aviv it would still be in Israel’s best interests to knock back Iran’s ambitions.

This is why Israel must attack Iran. It must reassert its role as the region’s most powerful nation, it must preserve the balance of power to its favor, and, of course, it must eliminate the very real existential threat of nuclear warheads raining down on its territories. If it doesn’t, Israel will have sealed its own fate. This is not the kind of nation Israel has proved to be. Thus, I have no doubt the question is not if, but when Israel will act.

Feckless, Jimmy Carter midwifed the rise of militant Iran; what will Obami wan give birth to.

But Israel hardly needs lessons in fighting. They have nothing but that- in ways you cannot imagine.

So have Palestinians. Do not mistake that for some sort of equilibrium in my mind. I am as pro-Israel as you can get. But I know that Israels principal enemies are fighters too and just as dedicated. Reality begins there. Then we proceed with how to deal with it.

Nobody wants perpetual war and ill concieved peace efforts only make the problem worse. Like giving the wrong antibiotic for an infection.

Always the give and take. Let us imagine that Netanyahu and Likud want to open a dialogue because they see an opening with some Fatah faction. The hard liners whom they need to keep majority oppose this on idealogical grounds. They take a line which allows the US to give them an out.

So the US gives them that by saying “either you do x or we withdraw support”. Now the pragmatists have what they need. No Israeli politician would jeopardize US support which is essential to survival.

This game happens on many levels. Only way to judge is by outcome.

No. I do not think this is the time for a major peace initiative. If the current US administration thinks it can do that they will sink upon the rocks as have so many others.

It may be the time for a feint. Yet in the long run hope is lost now for a strong enough Palestinain faction, maybe even an Israeli faction, to achieve a peaceful solution – always the ultimate goal.

Our president and his administation should not open a major front here. Lose-lose situation. Bad for everyone to see another lost cause. Keep the quiet and strong support for Israel. Let Hamas and the like drown in their own lost cause. Keep up the pressure. This is a waiting game, not a US election.

Spindok

So: No peace plan will ever work. Israel must always be ready to defend itself. And I fear that there will be a bloodbath for all. Perhaps we should consider alternatives which would bring the Israelis to the US to live and prosper in peace. I, for one, would welcome them with open arms. They are a brave and productive people.