I just want to point out that about a half hour AFTER I posted the item below, and days after I predicted an Obama Iowa win, when he was trailing Hillary in the polls, Chris Matthews just announced on Hardball that a new ABC/Washington Post poll showed Obama leading Hillary by 30% to 26%, a complete reversal of the last poll.
I don’t want to get too arrogant about it, I know things can change, but when you’re right, you’re right.
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2 Comments
charlie finch:A poll of 500 people, a state which no one thinks about for four years, a process which eliminates most candidates before ANYONE votes (caucusing is not voting), a nation of 300 million disenfranchised people. Somewhere Brezhnev laughs
Nov 19, 2007 - 6:59 pm GT:A couple of thoughts…
First, I like the fact that ABC published the poll questions. Second, Obama’s lead is within the margin of error. Third, telephone polls tend to leave out voters under 30 (even though they also vote less) because many of them don’t have land line phones. I didnt see an age crosstab, so I don’t know what that means. Fourth, national security concerns poll at 1%, a terrorist attack will change that dramatically. Lastly, more people still think Hillary! is going to be elected even if they support Obama.
Nov 20, 2007 - 1:35 am