An Asymmetrical War
The other day a story ran about new French male fashion shows—of sexually-ambiguous fellows dressed in a sort of terrorist-chic outfit (one had a hood on). And on the same day came this quote from one of the creepier terrorists around, Mr. Nasrallah of Lebanese Hezbollah infamy; he emerged briefly from his secret bunker to announce, “I tell the Israelis, we have the heads of your soldiers, we have hands, we have legs.”
That juxtaposition in tastes between what goes on in Paris and Beirut makes this war, well, very problematic to say the least. A bin Laden or Dr. Zawahiri must be quite amused, surprised, flabbergasted, delighted? by a Cindy Sheehan, Code Pink, or Michael Moore.
Gaza Blackout
After the nth rocket attack, Israel politely stopped providing fuel transit for the Gaza power station, which is now shutting down for a bit. Expect world outrage. Israel would have done better to send about 20 Kassem captured rockets into it rather than do something transparently, nonviolently and logically, given the outrage of safe Western elites.
And the effect? I would assume two things: the ‘Kill all the Jews” rhetoric of Hamas will go into, “How can they do this to us” victimization in a heartbeat; and, two, don’t expect an emergency shipment of Saudi fuel, or a sudden airlift, Berlin style, from Iran or Egypt. Sending weapons is one thing if it means using Palestinian fodder to hide the criminality of the Arab hierarchy in the Middle East, but quite another to help keep the lights on.
There will be as many candle-light processions in Gaza as there are none to stop the rockets. And remember Gaza is no longer “occupied”, but under Hamas control, itself in a deadly war with the West Bank Palestinian authority.
What happened to Iraq?
The general media reaction to the good news in Iraq has been the following: ignore it; or run stories about traumatic and deadly stress of veterans, or other bad news themes like the updates on the Marine trials; or talk not about the significance of victory but only of the unnecessary cost. Iraq was supposed to be the make-or-break issue for the Democrats, as they vied with one another to get the troops out the quickest. But the last two months in the theater, the number of American fatalities is starting to devolve to the number of what might be normally lost in deployments of the size of 160,000 through normal training and dangers in a noncombatant environment. (20,000 have died in military accidents since 1980).
In any case the argument is increasingly becoming moot. Americans of all persuasions want US troops to come home, the question now is mostly under what circumstances. Fears of Iran and $100 a barrel oil have made many of the old controversies of the 2003-5 years moot as well. I wrote once that the war would end with a whimper not a bang, and so it is starting to—only to be refought for the next twenty years by historians, once the tell-all, fiasco, quagmire, ‘George Bush is our worst president’ exposes clear out.
More on McCain
I continue to be deluged with angry letters from conservatives about McCain. My observations–as a TMS columnist I can’t endorse candidates– were entirely empirical: McCain has the best and perhaps the only chance to defeat the Democratic nominee, and his chances hinge in part on the degree to which either conservatives balance his good conservative rating (in the high 80s, strong support for the war, budgetary prudence) versus his propensity in the past to denigrate principled critics, and, out of misplaced bipartisanship, vote wrongly on issues such as closing the border now and censoring forms of political expression, inter alia—or his own magnanimity in admitting past straying and promises to reflect his party, perhaps by selecting, if nominated, a hard conservative as VP.
That’s how it looks from the outside, without partisan zeal. I understand conservatives’ anger that they will sense they are being co-opted, but they have to weigh that against the specter of a co-Bill-and-Hillary Presidency (on which see below).
An afterthought. If Bill and Hillary continue to split the Democratic Party, and Bill especially plays the race card, and loses his temper at the minority upstart that did not come through proper liberal white suburban approval channels, a number of bruised Obama voters may either stay home or vote a McCain ticket.
Trip to Battlefields of Western Europe
In an effort at chronological (15th-century to the present) and topical (e.g., Agincourt, Waterloo, Somme, Verdun, Normandy, etc.) diversity (post-war issues such as Nato in Brussels and the Treaty ending World War I at Versailles) we will try to spend some time at Rouen visiting the Joan of Arc sites. Within a few days I’ll have more information on the Nato headquarters meeting and the debate at the Hotel Trianon at Versailles between Professor Thornton and a prominent French intellectual on the future of Europe. We still have a few more openings, but have now a good-sized group, and some wonderful speakers. For those who might tire of lectures on war and campaigns and graveyards and battlefields, there is a nice evening boat cruise on the Seine in Paris, and plenty of down time in Brussels and other cities.
Sent this into the NRO corner this morning on Bill Clinton:
Who exactly is running for President?
I wrote not long ago about Bill as the “Clinton Albatross,” but recently it is more apt to compare him to some sort of attack dog unleashed. His (note-his, not hers) victory speech in Nevada was quite extraordinary; he went on and on, while she stood next to him mute-as he gloated over her comeback, took digs at the other candidates, referenced himself of course, and was reluctant to give up his iron grip on the microphone.
Her expression was that of a classic “Don’t dare ask me to muzzle that Doberman!” frozen bystander. If she can’t control him, how could she control the country-or is that a fair comparison given that his own pathologies are far greater than those of our collective nation? It defies the laws of physics for such a narcissist to recede into the shadows, or in suitable fashion yield to his wife, or to play a private role making calls and quietly calling in political debts.
In 2000 George Bush was careful not to be too partisan and mostly kept out of the campaign limelight. There was no sense that a vote for W. was simply a continuance of Bush I. So Bill’s ubiquity on the campaign-sharp partisan attacks and caricatures, misinformation about his own record, fiery outbursts to reporters-is quite unprecedented for an emeritus President, especially one who had so carefully cultivated his image as a global insider and international humanitarian.
If between 2001 and 2008, the Clinton 1993-2000 legacy was something to be defended by all Democrats, now Hillary’s candidacy and Bill’s unseemly behavior are calling all that in the past into question. Who knows, soon Democrats themselves, either Obama supporters or disillusioned Clintonites, may grudgingly concede to critics, “Yeah, you were right about that guy all along.” If Bill keeps up the attack on Obama, he may become the first unblack President.
Of course, Bill sees his wife’s election as a referendum on himself, a way to redeem himself for his impeachment and tawdry exit from the Presidency, and a co-presidency-if the prefix “co-”, in any sense, can ever be applicable to someone of such an extraordinary ego. Again, I pass on the Freudian aspect of him in part wanting her to lose. Handlers may think that Hillary’s bounce came from Bill’s suddenly frenetic pace, and indeed, he surely claims as much. But it is more like a shot of adrenalin to a floundering patient-necessary perhaps for one-time revival, but fatal in the long term if resorted to on a daily basis.
Again, the surprise is not that he has gnawed himself free, but rather how and why the old pros in the Clinton campaign did not have a steel chain rather than a mere leash. So far Obama has played off this gaffe in good fashion-when attacked being both pained and confused in just the right mixture. But it would be wise for him to counter Bill a bit more, drawing on his sense of much more even-tempered perplexity and sadness to challenge Bill’s mendacity. If he does that and keeps his cool, it will remind voters that Hillary apparently has willingly chosen bystander status-and sooner or later Bill will blow up big-time, and do irrevocable harm to Hillary’s candidacy. The Clintons know his snapping and biting must cease, but also know he can’t stop-sort of like the frustrated Queensland Heeler who has gone through extensive obedience training only to snap at the first stranger he sees.
In the meantime, we witness the odd effect that the more Bill presses the attack, the more sympathetic and likable-and presidential-Obama becomes. How odd that Obama appears on the campaign trail more like a calm ex-President, and Bill the over-eager grasping wannabe we remember so well from the late 1980s.
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16 Comments
Allison:Well, you clarified my thinking on McCain. The part where you said you could sleep well if he was in the White House brought things into fine focus. Thanks.
Plus, only a centrist Republican will be able to counter the urge for change in our country in 2008…as in, wanting change for its own sake. Americans are known for that.
Jan 21, 2008 - 2:49 pm James- The Historian:“…first unblack President.”
What a great line!
Have you seen the video of Bill nodding off while “listening” to a MLK day speech earlier today by, I believe, a King family member?
“…sort of like the frustrated Queensland Heeler who has gone through extensive obedience training only to snap at the first stranger he sees.”
Jan 21, 2008 - 4:56 pm David A. Andelman:Beautiful.
Keep up the great work.
As a history buff, especially one who clearly sees history as the prism through which we may see today’s problems, DO have a look at my wonderful new book … “A Shattered Peace: Versailles 1919 and the Price We Pay Today” [ http://www.ashatteredpeace.com ] just out from Wiley and available at Amazon and most major bookstores !
Spread the word !!
cheers,
Jan 21, 2008 - 5:45 pm Bowden Russell:David
david@shatteredpeace.com
a number of bruised Obama voters may either stay home or vote a McCain ticket.
Huh? So on one hand you remind us that McCain has a 80+ conservative rating-and we all know Obama probably has 3 or 4 rating-and then want us to believe that the Obama supports, people who are strident liberals who’ve supported a man who is a 3 or 4, will punch the card for McCain??????????????
Are you kidding us? I mean talk about over the top.
And Mcain-Mr. Close Gitmo and no torture-isn’t all that good on the war now that Iraq is done.
Jan 21, 2008 - 10:03 pm Dave Begley -Omaha:1. Gaza. Since I have never been there I am absolutely startled when I read some things about the day-to-day stuff. Things like how the Arabs are always firing guns into the air and how Hamas “cracked down” on that. Say what?
Whatever happened to the rule of law? I think one of the number one rules is that someone doesn’t fire a gun into the air just to celebrate. It doesn’t happen in Omaha. The police would arrest you.
When the great crook Arafat was dying in his compound, some clown got on TV and complained about how Arafat wasn’t getting enough “air” because the Israeli army had the place under seige.
And then there was the obligatory memorial a year after Arafat’s death. The wooden reviewing stand collapsed.
Bada bing.
Finally, I read in “The New Yorker” how a PLO village was warned numerous times by the Israelis that a giant septic pool upstream from the town was unstable and dangerous. The dam broke and flooded the town with raw sewage.
2. The best video of the week was when Sen. Obama said Bill Clinton wasn’t factually accurate. Are you just figuring it out now Senator?
And in the WSJ today, Clinton is looking to cash a $20,000,000 check from the Wild Oats-Whole Foods merger.
Two Americas indeed!
Jan 22, 2008 - 12:20 pm Ivanhoe:McCain isn’t perfect, but who the heck in the field is? As pointed out on this and other forums Reagan wasn’t either, in both domestic and foreign policy. If you want real conservative change vote for Ron Paul, who may not have a realistic foreign policy but isn’t far off the mark when it comes to a sound fiscal policy, a policy that was the conservative standard not too long ago;a point made by Donald Luskin, an NRO contributing editor.
Jan 22, 2008 - 1:46 pm Richard:In order to make any change at all in the behemoth that has become the federal government, first you have to get ELECTED. A robust debate should continue, up to and during the convention, but we better rally around someone who can win in November, and a good case can be made for McCain appealing to independents and conservative Dems.
Alas:
McCain is probably the best choice. I listened to Huckabee today in an interview with Neil Boortz. He said all that I wanted to hear in a candidate, but that being said he doesn’t really have a snowballs chance in that hot place to beat either Hillary or Obama. Thompson has bowed out of the race, although I still believe he’d make a good VP.
Jan 23, 2008 - 10:37 am Sheila:I do not like McCain on fiscal issues or immigration and that finance reform act is just nonsense, howver he’d make a great C N C be tough on international matters. IF he gets the nod I’d support him.
“a number of bruised Obama voters may either stay home or vote a McCain ticket.”
My gut instinct says that statement doesn’t ring true. I don’t recall where I read it, but the article said that people were less likely to vote for a senior citizen over a women or an African American. It was an extremely high percentage and a high negative for McCain. I think McCain’s age is a real problem whomever he faces, Hillary or Obama. I think the reason for the surge of positive press for McCain is that the Dems would like to run against him. I’m a moderate conservative and I don’t like McCain. He has an old man’s temper that is annoying and not very Presidential.
Jan 23, 2008 - 6:32 pm Frank Taylor:RE: Bill as the “Clinton Albatross,”
yep, looks like Bill will say anything no matter how inaccurate, self-serving or racist tinged. I noticed how his main contention with Obama saying that Reagan was the most trans-formative President, was Bills anger and amazement that anyone should think any president did more for the country than he Bill Clinton, that is what made him mad, i think more than the political ploy of spinning Obamas remarks for his wifes gain, it was once again more to do with Bills self-serving ego. Now Bill is basically saying that the only reason anyone would vote for Obama is because of the color of his skin.
Jan 24, 2008 - 8:55 am Phil:My problems with McCain are deeper than those listed by Dr. Hanson: 1. he is willing to stifle free speech for political expediency; and 2. his support for command-and-control Kyoto-style global warming solutions would result in less liberty for all with no associated reductions in global CO2 emissions. On issues of fundamental freedom, Sen. McCain is wrong. I admit that I will vote for him if necessary to stop Hillary, but he is a very dangerous man.
“Those who would sacrifice essential liberties for a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
Jan 24, 2008 - 8:57 am Bowden Russell:Vote for McCain and you finish off the Republican coalition of Reagan if McCain is elected.
If Hillary gets elected than the Republican Party will be energized and resurgent.
I will never, ever vote for McCain as he is a friend of the illegals invading our nation.
Jan 24, 2008 - 1:35 pm Tom Grey:I think you are very seriously wrong about “only McCain can win in Nov.” — because of the current polls.
These current polls don’t yet believe in US / Iraq Freedom victory. By Nov, they will, and ANY pro-victory Rep might win over anti-victory Dem. (Might lose too, but claiming knowledge today about it seems excessively intellectually arrogant / elitist.)
The problem in the GOP is too much analysis of “how can we most likely win”, with too little “what is the most important policy”.
I like McCain better than Romney, never pro-abortion Rudy, but prefer Huckabee and will vote for him in CA. He’s also obviously the most anti-elitist candidate, and I increasingly want less elitism.
Ron Paul is great, but he’s wrong about Iraq. On the other hand, he’s at least consistent.
On Gaza, it will be interesting to see “international reaction” to Egypt trying to re-close the border. I hope Israel doesn’t help it.
Jan 24, 2008 - 5:06 pm Tolbert:Any votes that John McCain would pick up from independents and moderates are going to pale in comparison to the loss of votes from conservatives like myself.
I won’t vote for John McCain under any circumstances, not even if I was waterboarded.
The Republican Party leadership needs to wakeup, the nomination of John McCain will lead to a fracturing of the Republican Party from which it may never recover.
Jan 25, 2008 - 9:19 am Publius:Instead of comparing McCain to the other candidates, compare him to President Bush. Then you start to see that the vitriol directed at McCain for his policies has been entirely inordinate when compared to conservative criticism of the President. Why doesn’t he get the same heat?
Bush Policies:
No Child Left Behind
Prescription Drug Benefit
Signed McCain/Feingold
Creation of a new federal super-department - Homeland Security
Federal Spending out of control
Nominated Harriet Mires for Supreme Court
Now getting on the Global Warming bandwagon
Led and would have signed an amnesty bill for illegal immigrants
And I am sure the informed could list a good deal more.
McCain is as conservative as the President, more so on federal spending. Why such excessive loathing for MCCain?
It really is about personality. And it’s killing Conservative credibility, and the Republican party.
Jan 25, 2008 - 12:15 pm Bowden Russell:McCain taps Juan Hernandez (Open borders advocate) for campaign.
From Hot Air:
John McCain says that he has heard the American people and now understands that we need to secure the border before enacting any “comprehensive” immigration reform. But John McCain has also said that he hasn’t changed his position. He supported amnesty in 2003 by name, proposed it in 2006 and 2007 without calling it amnesty, and says that anyone who says that he ever supported amnesty is a liar. He has insulted Americans who advocate border security and has cursed at the thought of building a border fence. Which of all of these is the real John McCain? The presence of Juan Hernandez in the background of the McCain campaign tells me that John McCain is as weak on border security now as he ever was.
Geez, the Republican establishement must think we’re really stupid to buy this Senator from Arizona.
Jan 25, 2008 - 2:24 pm amr:As an elder statement and former president, it is demeaning to that office for Mr. Clinton to become the attack dog for his wife’s campaign. This reminds me of Lurleen Wallace running for governor of Alabama in 1966 when her husband could not run for another term. Mr. Clinton’s actions seem to indicate that he is the candidate in reality as was Mr. Wallace. If Mrs. Clinton is the strong woman and candidate that is alluded too, she would stop his disgraceful actions such as his acceptance speech in Nevada. To me that made her look weak. I’m expected to believe that she will stand up to Ahmadinejad, Chevaz, and others, but not Bill? In my opinion, she should have dumped him as her spouse some time ago. But it would appear that her political goals are far more important. She may think he is an asset; and maybe he is in the primaries if there is a white backlash against Mr. Obama, but I don’t think he will be the general election. Too many Americans see that he has violated the unwritten rule of former presidents to be above the fray.
If Mr. McCain gets the nomination over my one vote against him, I hope he has Fred Thompson as his VP. They are friends, and while holding different view points on some major policy issues, they would compliment one another and rally some social conservatives in both parties to their ticket.
Jan 25, 2008 - 5:52 pm