McCain, where art thou?
The good news is that the so-called Newsweek poll went from having McCain 15 points down to just 3. That said, McCain is going to have to focus his campaign on just 3-4 themes, and then sharpen them, simplify them, and contrast them with Obama. E.g…
The War: Our aims are victory, and we will leave each region of Iraq as our victory on the ground allows us to turn another province over to Iraqi security forces. While my opponent Senator Obama flips and flops to match the polls, I am constant in my views—Iraq is winnable and the surge is working to an astonishing degree. That’s why the Iraqi democracy is stabilizing and reclaiming control from the terrorists. My opponent wanted all US troops out by March 2008 which would have led to our defeat five months ago and the victory of al Qaeda.
Money: Tax cuts led to greater aggregate revenues. Deficits grew due to uncontrolled federal spending. I’ll keep the money-earning tax stimuli and cut spending; my opponent will raise taxes that will stifle economic growth and cut our income, and yet spend even more money on dubious expanded federal entitlements, as our deficits grow even larger.
Energy: I’m as much for wind, solar, and conservation as Barack Obama. But for now at present rates of consumption and production, we will go bankrupt in the transition to green energy. So I will drill off the coast, develop tar sands and shale, use clean coal, and build more refineries and nuclear power plants to ensure that we don’t keep sending trillions to our enemies, that we don’t leave our poor without transportation and heating, that we don’t allow sloppy foreign state energy companies to pollute the planet, and that we don’t bankrupt our treasury. My opponent is captive to radical environmentalists whose restrictive policies helped to get us into this mess; he’ll talk about green power, as we go broke and run out fuel listening.
Illegal Immigration: We can talk all we want about “comprehensive immigration reform” but it won’t matter if we don’t close the border—now. I will; my opponent won’t. Close the border now, and all the contentious issues—amnesty, guest workers, fines and deportation—can be dealt with as the pool of illegal aliens shrinks rather grows.
Tony Snow, rip…
In 2003 I was the visiting Shifrin Professor at the US Naval Academy, and did a few Sunday morning appearances and other things with Tony Snow in the DC Fox studio. I remember how he came in with cut-offs and a tie and coat above for the camera, with an infectious laugh and aw shucks persona. I liked him a lot, and later did his radio show a few times, and saw him at some DC events. The chorus that he was “a nice guy” is exactly the impression I got every time. But one thing I noticed was that he had an excellent memory and could remember the exact details of our past conversations despite months in-between.
His decision to lecture nonstop while very very sick to take care of his family reminds me of Grant with throat cancer refusing opiates so that he could finish his memoirs (after the disastrous collapse of Grant and Ward that bankrupted him). He did just that and the royalties kept his family going years after Grant died (remember the sad photo of Grant under a blanket writing furiously at Mount MacGregor).
Nothing is more demanding than the lecture circuit (up at 5 AM to fly 9 hrs in and out airports, the mandatory pre-talk dinner, the lecture, the hostile questions, the media interview, and often the next day teaching a class or additional meetings, and then the travel back [I’d rather disk on a Massey for 14 hrs in the summer than fly to NY for a university lecture and fly back]). How Snow kept at with metastasized colon cancer and radiation/chemotherapy is almost inexplicable.
In the last two (wierdly bad) years, I’ve had a ruptured appendix and the resulting mess taken out on a wooden table in a Red Crescent clinic in Libya, , and subsequent peritonitis, and another operation for kidney stones, in addition to passing 5-6 jagged stones in the last 12 months and having 15 root canals and crowns since December in an effort to save my teeth (apparently soft teeth connected with the stone-making), all the while speaking about 35 times out-of-state per year. On bad days, I would often think of Snow and realize how minor my own ailments were in comparison–and again wonder how he did it.
Drilling is the thing
Almost every argument against more drilling, shale, tar sands, etc. is a loser in political terms. Saying it will take “10 years” and therefore not worth it is equally applicable to claiming cutting carbon emissions will take “20 years” and therefore silly. The notion that ANWR will only shave off a few cents from the price of a gallon of gas is equally bankrupt given the multifarious sources–coast, continental shelf, shale, etc.–we could draw upon for another million barrels a day each. And “we can’t drill our way out of it” is equally stupid, since no one is advocating increased production in a vacuum–but rather concurrent conservation, wind and solar, electric cars etc. Drilling is a transitional solution to get us to new energies without going bankrupt and empowering our enemies.
This is an explosive political issue–”To Drill or Not to Drill—that is the question!”
I wonder…
1. When universities open their for-profit, cash-garnering campuses in the oil-rich Middle East, do they extend their “oppression studies” curriculum as well. I mean does a Saudi petroleum engineering major, like his American counterpart, take a gender studies requirement, mutatis mutandis, learning how his gender-apartheid society harms women? Do Dubai pre-medical students in US overseas campuses learn about the evils of slavery in an African-experience course, especially how 11 million African slaves were shipped to the Arab, Muslim world? Or is such instruction left behind at the American shore, money trumping the gospel of multi-culturalism? If you think about it, a certain sort of truth emerges—that such oppression studies are felt even by those who peddle them to be unserious, since they wouldn’t dare offer them to those who in theory might need them the most. Business trumps PC?
2. How many of Barack Obama prescriptions for a better America apply to himself? Does he live a healthy lifestyle of the sort he advocates for the rest of us? A cold home, no SUV , smaller portions of food (smoking is a taboo subject)? Does he speak Spanish as the rest of us are supposed to? Is he multilingual, speaking French in Paris, Italian in Rome? Or is he simply glib, sputtering two words of French as he castigates Americans with the typical stereotypes, the notion that the Ivy Leaguer need not speak foreign languages since elite liberalism is in itself a sort of annoited creed that exempts its adherents from living the life one advocates for others?
3. How many celebrity spokespeople for environmental causes, whether an Al Gore or Laurie David or various English rock-stars, have made a pledge not to fly on private jets, live in homes larger than 3000 square feet, or drive Lexus, Mercedes or Volvo SUVs?
I could go on and on, but we all get the picture. The problem this time is that while Obama is very much a condescending Kerry redux, the Bush problem, the Congressional Republican collapse, and Obama’s racial transcendence rhetoric give him advantages Kerry never had.
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58 Comments
1. ~Paules:Professor,
I think your advice to McCain is spot on. His platform needs to be no more complex than a standard, five-paragraph essay. Pith, clarity, repetition, and consistency will bring home the votes. It’s the perfect antidote to Mr. Obama’s sophistry and constant shape-shifting.
As for oppression studies, I think most of us know that it’s contrived and phony. Where are American feminists when it comes to gender apartheid in the Arab world? Why do latte-sippers not demand a living wage for coffeebean pickers? Have environmentalists any concern for what Nigeria’s oil industry has done to the African coastline? All we get from left-wing activists is public exhibitionism and moral vanity on parade. And that’s really what it’s all about for the “I care” crowd.
Jul 13, 2008 - 5:43 am 2. K. Herman:Professor,
I think McCain has taken a page out of GWB’s playbook and figured the time to really get the nation’s attention is after August.
Most people are busy with their summers and not really paying too much attention. Also, why wear out your welcome so soon? November is still a long way off.
People who follow politics get frustrated with this approach (look at the level of venom over GWB’s August vacations) but should remember that most voters, at this point, are not paying too much attention.
Another advantage for McCain is that a rookie campaigner has the room to make unforced errors, which Barak has done, and now there is a tightening up in the polls.
Jul 13, 2008 - 6:20 am 3. IcePilot:Response to the “we can’t drill our way out of this mess” – we can’t solar or wind or hydrogen our way out of this either.
Response to the “we won’t get a drop of oil for ten years” – so you don’t care about your kids or grandkids?
Jul 13, 2008 - 7:05 am 4. Ron Kean:Dear Professor,
Thank you for giving McCain advice this time. You’ve given a lot to Obama in the past. That was the only thing I’ve ever disagreed with you about.
I remember Tony Snow from the early days of Fox News Sunday. Chris Wallace seemed to be second string.
I had 12 root canals from one dentist (over years) and asked him if he gave a free one with a dozen. He laughed. I go to a different dentist now.
Sadly, the change from a 15 point lead to a 3 probably highlights deception rather than a trend. I think the LA Times had the same spread. I wonder where they are now.
Are our congress men and women deaf to their constituency? Or are we here a few who care about giving so much money away.
Jul 13, 2008 - 8:31 am 5. Pajamas Media » Time For McCain To Sharpen His Message:[...] Read entire piece here. [...]
Jul 13, 2008 - 10:28 am 6. TurfMonster:I agree with your proposal for McCain to keep it short and simple. I would only add judges to that list – McCain should contrast himself to Obama on what type of judges they’ll appoint as often as possible.
Otherwise, excellent advise as usual. Now, if only McCain will give you a call, say about twice a day until the election…
Jul 13, 2008 - 11:41 am 7. kabud:The War:
WE are in a war that is conducted from Moscow and Beijing through the use of an instruments called:
1. oil and natural gas price
2. islamic fascism
Money:
we suicidaly gave our enemy a tool to destroy our finances through `free trade` with totalitarian systems. We must stop this falling to abyss NOW.
Energy:
professor? but you have a ZERO comprehension of it-
Exxon Mobil Vice President Kenneth Cohen offered some insights on why the company doesn’t build more new refineries in the U.S. Basically, Cohen said, building even a small refinery would require an investment of $2 billion to $3 billion.
Why in the world would you ever be backing an idea (Oil in 5 years) that would, in the long term, solve nothing?
On the other hand we can build a METHANOL alternative in a less then ONE YEAR period!!
read Zubrin.
Illegal Immigration: 1005 agree. Border must be closed this minute.
Jul 13, 2008 - 12:37 pm 8. Dave II:Excellent advice. I do agree with the above poster that right now McCain is “biding his time” waiting for the summer doldrums to end and Obama to be “officially” nominated. In the meantime, his favorite “populist” style of campaigning, the townhall-meeting question free-for-all, is where he is “sharpening his sword” for the fall.
While this is not neccesarily a bad strategy for now, as Obama is doing a swell job of shooting himself in the foot and losing ground (see the latest Newsweek and Rasmussen poll) he WILL need to condense his message to a well-thought out THEME that he can consistently preach. All your points are spot on!
There’s still plenty of time to capture the majority of independents and bring more enthusiam to his base (naming a woman for VP would definitely help!) so he just needs to control the gaffes (and those of his advisors!) and keep on keeping on…
In the meantime, I’ll keep on pressing for THIS:
McCain/Palin ‘08
Jul 13, 2008 - 12:49 pm 9. David:If one pillar of politics is theater, then Obama gets the Oscar, McCain the razzie. Obama stages himself well in epic settings that allow his sonorous rhetoric to inspire and soorth the mob– or lately allow us to seem him touseling his kids’ hair. McCain always seems to be standing in some distracting hubbub or cloistered with a small group or in an interviewer’s chair– neither epic nor heartwarming and certainly not traditionally presidential.
McCain’s campaign needs not just a sharper political direction, but some canny stage direction as well. The other side seems to leave no stone unturned– except for detailed policy…..John McCain needs to get on the stick but not lose his approachable, human presence. To the healthily skeptical, Obama’s campaign seems like an extended, slick commercial. But the majority may not be so skeptical.
Jul 13, 2008 - 1:04 pm 10. Ron Kean:kabud:
What war are you talking about?
Fill up the seas with more and more oil tankers full of oil. Watch the price drop and reduce the financial hemorrhaging.
The only drawback is that lefties are on the coasts and they may get all that money.
Jul 13, 2008 - 1:32 pm 11. DavidN:You’re never going to get Laurie David to pledge to anything. She’s one of the biggest hypocrites in the environmental movement, and makes no bones about her unwillingness to travel in a plane with other people, while she lectures the rest of us on what we should do to protect the environment.
Jul 13, 2008 - 1:47 pm 12. Webutante:Thank you, Victor, for the short and sweet talking points that can win the election. I hope McCain is smart enough to be reading this and taking it to heart.
Jul 13, 2008 - 2:34 pm 13. el gordo:Always remember what Charles Schumer (D-NY) said on the Senate floor last May. He claims to know the benefits of increased oil production to the last cent – as long as the Saudis do the pumping. Quote:
“So we know that OPEC has no incentive to increase their production right now – since that would decrease their profits. In fact, if Saudi Arabia were to increase its production by 1 million barrels per day that translates to a reduction of 20 percent to 25 percent in the world price of crude oil, and crude oil prices could fall by more than $25 dollar per barrel from its current level of $126 per barrel. In turn, that would lower the price of gasoline between 13 percent and 17 percent, or by more than 62 cents off the expected summer regular-grade price – offering much needed relief to struggling families. Yet Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said there was no need to increase supplies by even one barrel of oil. But even as they are saying “no, no, no” to U.S. consumers, they are saying “yes, yes, yes” to China – they are planning to DOUBLE oil production for China ”
[end of quote]
Note the dishonest claim that production “for China” somehow wouldn´t lower world market prices. Note that we could achieve an increase of 2 million barrels per day in domestic oil production within a decade – with drilling – plus tens of thousands of jobs and increased tax revenue. I wonder if Democrats – including Schumer – are against domestic production simply because it doesn´t help extending the reach of government.
Anyone here who voted for this guy?
Jul 13, 2008 - 2:34 pm 14. hyphenated american:I am not sure this is the right approach. Don’t forget Guliani and Thomson – they sat on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment. McCain has to start attacking Obama now, so he could paint him into a corner as early as possible as a quintecential super-liberal from the most corrupt liberal city of Chicago.
Jul 13, 2008 - 2:45 pm 15. cedarford:Generally agree with the balance of VDH’s post, but two losers:
1. There will be no “victory” in Iraq because the Arabs there in both religions could give the French lessons in ingratitude and backstabbing. Don’t expect rose petals thrown at us as we leave, don’t expect them to ever do us a favor in the future.
2. After almost 30 years, the radical Republican’s mass delusion of tax cuts for the rich borrowed from foreign nations benefit all by “trickledown”, and grow the economy so much that each tax cut pays for itself in other revenue – has badly faded.
And now we have 11 trillion in debt, 3 trillion to enemy or near-enemy nations holding our wastrel nation’s paper.
Supply side economics to reward the wealthy only, and claim “trickledown” spreads it sadly has joined such past cherished beliefs as “gun bans stop crime”, Open Borders only means some guys come here for a few years then return to their families South of the Border, doubling teachers pay will double educational attainment.
McCain has to mention it because his fatcat donors expect it, but the public believes in tax cuts and trickle-down as much as they believe that Outsourcing industrial jobs only opens vast new opportunities for the displaced workers to chose from a wide array of more exciting, batter-paying jobs.
Jul 13, 2008 - 3:08 pm 16. kabud:Ron Kean:
war that kremlin and beijing will bring to YOU , your wife and kids if you have them ROn
the war that started its current phase on 11 of September 2001
there gonna be NO OIL for you EVER
Jul 13, 2008 - 7:14 pm 17. Jack Marcotte:mark my words
Essential vdh.
McCain has a problem in that his past record and positions are coming home to roost.
Except for his Iraq position, McCain has been on the wrong side of most issues—at least from a conservative standpoint.
McCain’s mantra about being able to cross the isles and work with the liberal Dems simply says he has no particular point of view other than expediency. How can you work with a party that has no values.
McCain’s initial position on not drilling for oil smacked of political opportunism that left a lot of people cold. The quick jump (to fast for Obama) to 4.50 gas made for no memory loss amongst the public and voters. He has changed on that—I think.
McCain doesn’t shift gears as well as BHOO. And if he did the MSM press would call it flip flopping where they call BHOO flips from one day to the next smart strategy and “re-calibrations” based on new facts. With a comment on how Bush lied or covered up the facts thrown in by the MSM explaining everything about BHOOs shiny new thoughts or positions.
BHOO and the MSM are doing this by taking a born yesterday mentality to the political fight. McCain may not be smart enough to pull a Reagan. Nothing he has done to date demonstrates that.
Then again BHOO being the first affirmative action presidential candidate has yet to demonstrate that other than preaching and being part of the Chicago race baiting and vote stuffing machine along with hanging out with a few puny 60’s “terrorists” –has yet to show he can write a complete sentence. To bad for his wife her Princeton “Honors” thesis was published on the Internet.
I think we are SOL this time around. After all McCain was picked by the MSM and ran against what turned out to be a rather weak crowd with the strongest candidates having a lot of liberal baggage.
I wish or hope that I am wrong but it will be up to McCain to demonstrate that he can win. Until that happens why should I change my mind. It is McCain’s to win or lose. I don’t think he has the right stuff.
Jul 13, 2008 - 7:48 pm 18. GCA:Energy prices will decline significantly as soon as we start doing what we need to do to increase supply. Markets react not only to what is available today, but to what will be available tomorrow. An additional million barrels per day, even 5 to 10 years away, would be a significant start. To paraphrase Scoop Jackson, a million barrels here, a gigawatt there, pretty soon you are talking about real energy. Obama style handwringing, and more subisidies for corn based ethanol, will get us only greater energy shortages and higher food and energy prices. Hope McCain takes your advice.
Jul 13, 2008 - 8:15 pm 19. Mary K. Allen:Dear Professor Hanson,
Jul 13, 2008 - 9:31 pm 20. David Thomson:Your articles are always excellent but this one is right on with good advice for John McCain. It is essential that his advisors get a copy of it. I tried sending it to them via the form provided but it doesn’t work.
Please email it to his new chief advisor: Steve Schmidt: sschmidt@McCain08HQ.com.
Thank you, Mary: A McCain supporter
Drilling for more oil may be the number one issue. This will not only help John McCain—but it will also help other Republican candidates on Election Day. The environmental crazies will not cut the Democrats any slack. They would rather commit political suicide than compromise.
Jul 13, 2008 - 11:04 pm 21. steve:Great post as always.
Jul 14, 2008 - 4:49 am 22. CLD:1. As has been mentioned before, the election will boil down to a referendum on Obama. Short, foccussed highlighting of the position differences where the Obama position is indefensible is the only way to go.
2. The only thing keeping energy from being a Republican landslide issue is Republican incompetence.
3. To my knowledge,outside of the USA, only the UK seems to take such absurd and counter productive narrative and try to make it class room material.I am not knowledgable re. canada however.
Excellent advice…sharpen the message…sharpen the delivery. Now, hopefully, the campaign takes note of advice from “outside”…
Jul 14, 2008 - 5:36 am 23. David:VDH, thanks for reminding me on my favorite general. I thinks it is about time to read his memoirs again.
Jul 14, 2008 - 5:57 am 24. Ron Kean:kabud,
Glad you made it back.
Where did you get that crystal ball? I’d like to look into the future myself.
I used to think Phil Gramm was right. I have liberal friends who travel a lot and one wears $300.00 jeans who tell me how bad things are. But a close friend just lost his house and moved into an apartment and that gave me a chill.
I don’t know if Phil Gramm should be an ambassador, but I do think Jessie Jackson should be the surgeon general.
Jul 14, 2008 - 6:01 am 25. Mike_K:The folly of the Democrats’ energy policy could even return Congress to Republican majority if only McCain and the RNC have the wit to focus on it like the proverbial laser beam. The motto this year is “It’s the energy, stupid.” Now if they will only see it.
The Iraq War is won and we will be starting to draw down by November. Nobody serious expects a parliamentary democracy free of corruption ( I wish we had one), but a government that can control its territory and ensure peace is enough.
If the polls are close, Obama will have to debate McCain and he does not do that well.
Jul 14, 2008 - 6:55 am 26. Independent Sources » Blog Archive » How McCain Can Win - A Strategy By Victor Davis Hanson:[...] it was me I would add one more item – Judges, but I think Victor Davis Hanson’s list works well enough. Share this post! These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers [...]
Jul 14, 2008 - 8:23 am 27. Anti-Drilling Buzz Words « New Wars:[...] Buzz Words Victor Davis Hanson takes them down, one by one: Almost every argument against more drilling, shale, tar sands, etc. is [...]
Jul 14, 2008 - 8:30 am 28. How John McCain Can Succeed in 2008 « Teen Pundit:[...] John McCain Can Succeed in 2008 Victor Davis Hanson sums up what John McCain should push and how to push it: The War: Our aims are victory, and we will leave each region of Iraq as our victory on the ground [...]
Jul 14, 2008 - 8:38 am 29. J.E. Dyer:Excellent comments, as always… but I just had to exclaim, if briefly, over the 15 root canals. Holy lidocaine, Batman! I’ve had three in 16 years — just had my third this month — and thought myself hardly used.
Mr. Hanson, you win this one walking away. This merits a “Bless your heart!”
Thanks for the lovely thoughts on Tony Snow, too.
Jul 14, 2008 - 9:15 am 30. willis:“And now we have 11 trillion in debt, 3 trillion to enemy or near-enemy nations holding our wastrel nation’s paper.”
Yes, and it came from spending trillions on imported oil and ear-marks from pseudo-Republican congressmen. Lets drill our own oil and elect real Republicans.
Jul 14, 2008 - 9:34 am 31. TLM:Is the central front in the War on Terror shifting back to Afghanistan? I’ve heard mention of reports saying foreign jihadis are now more likely to go to Pakistan than to Iraq. The Taliban offensive this year in Afghanistan certainly indicates they have been reinforced and reinvigorated. The Pentagon is shifting resources (a carrier battle group) away from the Persian Gulf and may now be entertaining attacks in the Northwest Frontier, including putting troops (SOF) on the ground. Unfortunately for McCain, these developments may reflect favorably on Obama – c.f. his article in the NYT. McCain cannot sit tight on this issue. He needs to get out in front of it now:
–There is no “central front” in this war. The jihadis attack us wherever they have a chance of success. That is no longer in Iraq where they are being defeated by our new strategy. We learned valuable lessons in Iraq about how to counter Islamic terrorism and insurgency. We will prevail in Afghanistan as well. And good thing Saddam Hussein is no longer around to funnel support to our enemies.
–Musharraf’s “peace” proposal with the terrorists in the Northwest Frontier didn’t work. They are not interested in peace, and should be contested by all means at our disposal for as long as it takes to defeat them. No one is proposing a hundred years of war in Iraq or elsewhere, but this conflict will take years more to resolve in our favor.
–This is not Viet Nam. It is a pipe dream to think we can bring all of our troops home and abandon this part of the world to its fate. Not even Obama believes this. How many troops would he leave in Iraq? 30,000 (or 80,000) as trainers/advisors. That’s more advisors than we had in Viet Nam before the buildup in ‘65, and is an acknowledgment that even he will not all bring the troops home.
–If you doubt the necessity to rapidly enhance our own energy resources, oil and alternatives, just read the paper. The Soviets told us, on leaving Afghanistan, we would come to rue the day we helped empower the Islamists. That day has come. Chaostan, where the world gets its oil, is circling the drain. We would be fools to ignore this.
Jul 14, 2008 - 10:05 am 32. kabud:Ron Kean:
kabud,
Glad you made it back.
Where did you get that crystal ball? I’d like to look into the future myself.
I used to think Phil Gramm was right. I have liberal friends who travel a lot and one wears $300.00 jeans who tell me how bad things are. But a close friend just lost his house and moved into an apartment and that gave me a chill.
I don’t know if Phil Gramm should be an ambassador, but I do think Jessie Jackson should be the surgeon general.
it is not a cristal ball man. I was taught this in school and in the university in USSR: communism is inevitable, we will crush the “american imperialism”.
And i know, i saw THEM in action:
———————
(1)
1986 Chernobyl, the way they figured the WINDS blowing to the WEST direction: THAT RADIOACTIVE WIND put an end to NUCLEAR ENERGY ALTERNATIVE for western europe, DO YOU COMPREHEND IT?
Check out oil price graph for 1980-1989
You will find amazing things. WIKI has it by the way.
——————–
(2)
9-11:
just from one single fact: oil price it is easy to figure what happened.
If you look at the oil price graph you will find that 1999 is a minimum, 2000 and 2001 – the price is still very low
2001- 9-11 happened, Afghanistan war began
2003- Iraq war began in spring
2003- N Korea ballistic missile test in september(?)
Exactly in 2003 oil price goes UP and never stoped its climb
Now lets see who benefits the most.
2 major oil/gas exporters in the world with close to 10 million barrels daily EACH:
1.Saudis
2.Moscow
9-11 was a provocation to engage us in a war in the ME and make out of USA a devil in the eyes of Muslims.
It worked to the almost fantastic success on their part. Not just in ME but in the Western Europe and in the USA!!!!
Same but even worth results will yield from possible war in IRAN.
This time Gulf oil will be locked,
Russia will remain as a single oil exporter
oil price will reach $ 1000 (ONE THOUSAND IT IS) a barrel and may be even more
———————
it is gonna be trouble. All signs are present. It was described long ago exactly like it is happening:
1.Tricking US to partake in unpopular war(Vietnam worked for them so they know) or WARS.
2.Creating a false antagonism with billions of muslims
3.economical downturn, may be deep recession
4.oil price maneuvering based on war risks of course
5.political destabilization by manipulating of both compromised presidential candidates
6.lowering of moral due to the above factors
7.critical strike through another war that will lock the Gulf oil
8.Devastating terror attack by stalking hourse false `islamic which terrorists` will bring mass murder to US homeland
9.confusion of public on Where TO RETALIATE?
10.Possible actual war starting with assassinations of critical to our society figures in a top command line and opinion makers an alike
11.detonation of nuclear devices in american cities
12.missile strike when there gonna be no one who could respond back
13.final extermination of population and take over of the land by Chinese and Russian
somewhere in between kremlin will get rid of so called Muslims in the Middle East. They wont need them anymore, so they will exterminate them
Jul 14, 2008 - 10:39 am 33. Dr. T:Professor Hanson,
Jul 14, 2008 - 10:43 am 34. Drew-ROC:My wife says you’re lucky to have survived your ordeal with a ruptured appendix and peritonitis.
I hope you don’t have heart problems, but I am a cardiologist, and I will be on the National Review cruise.
My alma mater, Rochester Institute of Technology, is opening a campus in Dubai. When you look at the student population it makes sense to offer a place to study close to home. I have wondered just as you do if students will have to pay for a “liberal arts core” just as I did to get their Engineering or CompSci or Physics degrees. I’m certain my course in “Modern Middle Eastern History” taught by a Syrian Christian (with whom I clashed many a time), helped me understand the world, but I’m not so sure about my courses in French-African Literature.
Jul 14, 2008 - 12:01 pm 35. Larry:GCA: “…To paraphrase Scoop Jackson…” Jul 13, 2008 – 8:15 pm I’m sure you meant Everitt Dirksen.
I’m thoroughly discouraged by the lack of Republican vigor, McCain’s in particular, expressing the points you make. Heaven help us 5 or 10 years from now if we don’t take energy measures we haven’t taken for decades because they would take 5 or 10 years to have effect.
Jul 14, 2008 - 12:34 pm 36. Tcobb:Yeah–its all about the energy and that’s how McCain can beat Obama. He needs to come out with a comprehensive plan that will help make us independent of foreign energy vendors. I would suggest that most of the features of such a plan would consist of the government getting out of the way. We need to greatly shorten the amount of time it takes to get approval to build nuclear power plants and remove the jurisdiction of the Federal Courts to entertain suits that would stop or delay the building of such facilities. And the government can offer incentives as well by giving tax breaks for activities that decrease our energy dependency on foreign sources.
Jul 14, 2008 - 12:44 pm 37. msnthrop:“disk on a Massey”
I wonder how many of your readers get that comment? Though I’m one of those liberal organic farmers you’ve spoken less than kindly of in the past I’m relatively swayed by your “lets drill” arguments. However if it were me, I’d make every barrel of oil drilled out of these environmentally sensitive areas off limits to use in the transportation sector. To risk ANWR or the Florida coast so we can drive a few more miles at a slightly cheaper cost doesn’t make sense to me, instead reserve that oil for needed industrial purposes down the road and make efforts in the meantime to eliminate the need for combustion engines on our roads.
Jul 14, 2008 - 1:44 pm 38. UnrepentantRedneck:Here’s a thought on the Drill Now concept that I haven’t heard before, but judge it needs consideration. With Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, and the estimates that they will achieve their goal in about five years, we have a less-than five year window before we face a conflagration in the middle East. It will be sparked by the Iranian nuts who believe that Armageddon is necessary to force the Second Coming, which opens the way for the global Caliphate. If we think $150-$200 per barrel is bad now, what do we do when the middle East supply is essentially shut down?
Jul 14, 2008 - 2:29 pm 39. DEK:So, forget today’s energy prices, and the fact that we’re spending hundreds of billions to strengthen countries that want to do us harm – we have about five years to get an internal capability to generate energy as a hedge against failure of Islamic sources.
This is a matter of National Security as important as the Moon Race and the Manhattan Project – we need a comprehensive, nationwide effort to increase supply on every possible front – Drill Now, flex fuels, bio-energy, geo-thermal energy, wind, solar, nuclear, more refineries, less red-tape, energy from waste, conservation, and anything else that American ingenuity can devise – and we need it NOW, before the balloon goes up. “It will take five-ten years” is a WARNING, not an excuse. VDH and his readers could start the meme – independent of political campaigns. IMO this is a national emergency, regardless of the price of a gallon of gas.
I can recall bouncing around on a hay rake with my grandfather in the Central Valley…hot, itchey, and exhausting.
But, Msnthrope above………”eliminate the need for combustion engines on the road”, while a necessary goal, is also far away and still in the imaginative abstract for the multitudes who will grow old waiting for affordable noncombustion personal transportation. I recall Dr. Hanson describing the battered pickups of the rural/suburban working class, bought second hand, and their less than broad options now and in the immediate future.
Jul 14, 2008 - 2:51 pm 40. michaelyi:How John McCain can win? Oh, that’s easy, he wins if he picks a good, solid conservative for the top of his ticket.
Jul 14, 2008 - 3:39 pm 41. Ron Kean:kabud:
‘communism is inevitable’ I know you’re convinced. It seems that your theory is that a group within the Kremlin has been plotting to take over the world. And the so-called victory of the west in the Cold War was a charade.
Are you saying Chernobyl was planned to harm Europe rather than an accident? And they planned it that way to discourage the development of nuclear power to insure the importance of oil leading up to today’s situation. Right?
They manipulated leaders and governments to bring about the Middle East hostilities to drive the price of oil up with the intention of making their oil more expensive. And they’re succeeding as planned.
Iran will be the vehicle to shut down the oil supply from the gulf and the manipulators in Moscow will win wealth beyond belief according to a 25 year old plan hatched before Chernobyl.
Who exactly described this a long time ago?
I hope I’m understanding you.
Jul 14, 2008 - 8:44 pm 42. Jack Marcotte:Essential vdh.
“Disk on a Massey”. I assume you mean a little Massey Ferguson Tractor with a 3 point hydraulic hitch that the disk was attached to. It would be small and maneuvrable– good for orchard work.
In Kansas we call them garden and lawn tractors.
Jul 15, 2008 - 5:53 am 43. kabud:Just kidding. I spent a lot of hours cutting hay with those tractors.—if that was what you meant.
Tcobb:
man, we only generate 35 of electricity from oil
yes we need nuclear plants – it will provide energy for METHANOL synthesis, but to build a nukee plant will take YEARS.
WE ARE UNDER ATTACK that will take form of MILITARY ATTACK ON US this or next year
possible mass extermination by bio weapons.
DO YOU GET IT?
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:11 am 44. kabud:3% of electricity from oil
but lots from nat gas: which is wrong because gives our enemy a leverage
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:18 am 45. kabud:Ron Kean:
>‘communism is inevitable’ I know you’re >convinced.
No, people HERE you convince me that THERE IS NO WILL POWER this nation has to stop it from happening. We got to make an intellectual effort to understand. It is not like chewing a gum or french fries man, it is HARDER, we must try HARDER.
>It seems that your theory is that a group >within the Kremlin has been plotting to take >over the world. And the so-called victory of >the west in the Cold War was a charade.
Jee, man it is not a THEORY!!!!! It is a FACT. Kremlin and Beijing and lots of their allies do it. But kremlin has a network of several million agents in the World. Official figures of internal KGB force TODAY is something like several hundred thousands.
From the middle of the 50s kremlin was teaching and distributing around the world tens of thousands of well trained agents. TAKE A CALCULATOR. Just to the middle east they send several hundreds of thousand people trained in different methods of subversion and sabotage.
>Are you saying Chernobyl was planned to harm Europe rather than an accident?
Of course. I used to live in Kyiv. I was there. I KNOW PEOPLE. They talked. It was OBVIOUS.
Check the oil prices charts of 1980-1989!!!!
Check you google search engine. You’ll find an article on this in a newspaper published by Economist publishing house.
>And they planned it that way to discourage the >development of nuclear power to insure the >importance of oil leading up to today’s >situation. Right?
exactly.
>They manipulated leaders and governments to >bring about the Middle East hostilities to >drive the price of oil up with the intention >of making their oil more expensive. And >they’re succeeding as planned.
100%. Their oil is 10 times more expansive to produce and transport then ME oil
>Iran will be the vehicle to shut down the oil >supply from the gulf and the manipulators in >Moscow will win wealth beyond belief according >to a 25 year old plan hatched before >Chernobyl.
Well, plan is older and goes far beyond the oil market manipulation.
Plan is to gain total world domination and NEVER be punished for atrocities of unprecedented degree, for mass murder of hundreds of millions in USSR, China and other places.
Check what they did to US POWs and still do.
>Who exactly described this a long time ago?
Marx. Lenin. Dostoevsky. Early french socialists.
Educational system in USSR that i went trough from grade 1 to MS in aerodynamics.
My grandfather who studied marxism in the Highest Party School in Moscow in 1850s and later became a doctor in political economy. My relatives who had access to Khrushev. Other relatives, whose relatives had a prominent positions in KGB in the 1970s.
Golitsyn. Sejna. Lunev. Tretyakov(already after 2000). Joseph Douglas. Jeff Nyquist. Pacepa. Bukovsky. Zakaev
Those are just the VERY visible names. And facts
>I hope I’m understanding you.
You got it.
Jul 15, 2008 - 10:54 am 46. Cornhead:Think about this. Obama’s experience consists of the following:
1. He has never run any organization larger than his Senate office and the Harvard L. Rev.
2. He has owned exactly *two* common stocks in his entire life.
3. He’s never worked for himself.
4. He’s never met a payroll.
5. He’s never been in the military.
As VDH has written, “No serious country would nominate someone like this for its highest elected office.” paraphrase
Jul 15, 2008 - 11:20 am 47. kabud:Cornhead:
the other candidate is almost a certain kgg-gru agent
Jul 15, 2008 - 12:44 pm 48. Ron Kean:kabud:
‘Several hundreds of thousands.’
Where do you think they are in the United States? The State Department? The Obama campaign? In universities?
Do they all report to somebody in Russia?
Do they all receive instructions?
Do they meet secretly in groups?
Are they working toward a date?
I know Russians. I know one in his 40’s who’s had a Russian education too. He was told that Russia beat the Japanese in the Sino Soviet War. The Japanese won that one. You’ve been told stories that were highly regulated and you expect us to accept the authority of despots like you accept it.
Their authority may indeed be imposed on us in the future. But we’ve been educated to believe that we win a lot. In one of VDH’s books, ‘The West’s Way of War,’ the East doesn’t makes out well. You should read it. Really. Buck up. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
If you’re resigned to subservience and obedience to the KGB, I understand and I can’t see into the future so I’m not sure I won’t become resigned as well one day.
But right now I have a Sturm Ruger and I live in a country that is the home of the free and the brave. DO YOU UNDERSTAND?
Things were going badly before General Pershing, and then again before Eisenhower’s time and then a little bit before Petraeus…or should I say Bush. I’m confident that there are better minds than mine out there and your buddies in the Kremlin are going to have to try a little harder if they think they can walk all over Uncle Sam.
Sleep on that Igor.
Jul 15, 2008 - 6:32 pm 49. TLM:It must surely be part of the Obama campaign strategy to goad McCain into making a derogatory off the cuff remark about the junior Senator from Illinois. How else to explain Obama’s unmitigated arrogance? Consider:
Obama writes an Op/Ed in the NYT, gives a long winded speech and makes the interview rounds to proclaim his new national security plan, including his strategy for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — all on his way out the door to ostensibly consult with our commanders in theatre. Did he not want their input first? What’s the purpose of this tax-payer funded fact finding mission if he has already decided on a master plan of action? Well, don’t expect him to reveal any new insights on his return, or acknowledge any of the lessons learned the hard way in Iraq and their application in Afghanistan. Obama knew it all before he went and the Master’s Plan is to be all his.
McCain openly acknowledges who his advisors are and gives credit where credit is due. Never heard Obama do the same. Does anyone think he devised his national security plan himself? His followers appear to believe so, and his campaign actively promotes this impression. Odd that these are the same people who castigated George Bush for not listening to others. We know what books he reads, but who does Obama listen to on national security? As above, the Messiah doesn’t listen to mere mortals.
Obama’s speeches, where he outlines how he will lead this country (or heal it, or whatever), are always full of references to great Americans. Lincoln, FDR, Kennedy, Marshall etc. He loves to associate himself with greatness. Must be galling to McCain that Obama rarely refers to the great country that produced these great leaders. Greatness, apparently, is a feature of men like Obama, not countries.
Arrogant people are usually thin skinned. Obama and his campaign are the epitome of this. The slightest perceived slight, the New Yorker cover for example, is countered without thinking. No one can be allowed to question the Great One with impunity. That’s the message here. He’s got to remain unsullied. So scrub the web site. I hope he talks to the troops while he’s in Iraq. Maybe one of them can ask him why he thought the surge was a failure, without his campaign jumping down the guy’s throat.
The candidate with no experience can have no flaws. Such arrogance must grate on McCain. So far he’s not biting though. Too bad the word hubris has been much overused these past seven years. We may need it come Nov 5th.
Jul 15, 2008 - 9:09 pm 50. RuleTopia:The three themes for McCain and the RNC should be Decency, Security and Prosperity.
Decency is foremost. For that, I would risk my security and prosperity for others. Decency is liberating millions of Muslims from tyrants. Decency is executing murderers and child rapists rather than our own babies. Decency is demanding Mexico provide its own citizens with the rule of law and limited government that would lead to enormous, society-wide prosperity and end the exodus of its bravest and hardest working citizens.
Security is secured borders, a larger, replenished military, and an all-out war against Jihadists and their supporters, both at home and abroad, including in Gaza.
Prosperity is the elimination of the entire federal departments (starting with Education) and the severe reduction of many others. Prosperity is free trade and free markets (starting with health care and social security) and much, much lower taxes and deficits. And to ensure we stay prosperous, we should amend the constitution to limit government spending to a fixed percentage of GDP, a limit we can only over-ride with a 75% majority in congress for real emergencies.
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:15 am 51. Ron Kean:I remember back in the days of Ross Perot.
People said, ‘I know he’s crazy but I’m voting for him anyway.’
Obama has a lot of voters who, regardless of his positions or flip flops, would vote for Lassie if he wasn’t a Republican. But mostly, I think his constituency is thinking, ‘He’s lying. He’ll always be one of us.’
Jul 16, 2008 - 5:21 pm 52. Chicago Boyz » Blog Archive » Fernandez Clarifies - As Do His Readers:[...] of McCain’s speech on Iraq & Afghanistan is thoughtful. Further commentary by Hanson is also to the point. This follows his earlier analysis of Obama’s speech. [...]
Jul 16, 2008 - 7:09 pm 53. kabud:Ron Kean:
well, it is the best describe as a culture,
it was forming since 1917
it is not easy to comprehend
think in terms of a mixture of organized crime and mad science
It is like this:
lets say we have this plan: to make enourmous money and we have no moral or financial or subversion or violent, or any limitations in terms of what could be done outside of magic))
lets say we want american financial system to go down. It is a good example to consider Fannie may disaster
so we sit down and plan
we identify how the system works, we think in terms of creating a bubble, we already did several bubbles in Russia, we know it is doable.
And we do it and succeed. Just like that.
Did you know that Clinton had and have very intimate contacts with key figures in soviet mafia?
Newsweek publishe not long ago a story with pictures of Billy the clinton with Chornomyrdyn an Kuchma in yalta))
they are not even ashamed to be photographed together
Kuchma is known to order contrqct killings
This is the way it is done.
Or take Condoleezza Rice.
She was in the works since i dont know when,
but peole who pushed her in dep of state – and you can check yourself who they are-
they are also a part of their team
It is all the matter of how deep you dig
And it is very frightening – deeper you dig more you will get a feeling that it is so unreal you may start not believing what you learn
Culture is more then a team or organization.
You were told about islamic radicalism, so imagine that THEY ARE ROCKET SCIENTISTS
The nature of educational system in US is very different from soviet, it is not easy to grasp for americans
this is a good link
http://www.jrnyquist.com/media/Andrei%20Navrozov%20Interview.mp3
From the rest of your post i can tell that you don’t have enough info on the subject
and who is igor?:):):)
I was born there, i was exposed to how things are done, to some methods they do it, but still it takes years, dozens of years to connect the dots
It is strategy, it is very complicated.
Would take me years to give you all details so you can start to connect it.
But the sources are out there: just read some books.
enemy is not that simple at all.
May be the best way to understand how they see us here would come from the explanation of say a biochemist who works for some reservour of drinking water or someone like it
But you will have to make an effort and understand that enemy is not like me or you:
the have no remorse or moral restrain
they are serial killers in numbers of hundreds of millions and they did it and this is the way the plan it and the worst thing for them is a thought that we will realize what they are and will put them to justice
Jul 16, 2008 - 9:28 pm 54. Senator McCain needs to focus like a laser on four issues! | Sarasota Blog - Sarasota, Florida News:[...] 13, 2008 According to Victor Davis Hanson of Pajamas Media Senator McCain needs to focus on four issues and use the keep it simple stupid method of delivery. [...]
Jul 18, 2008 - 4:26 am 55. deguello:Where is Mccain?Mr. Hanson? In the pocket of the globalist plutocracy. Don’t expect sharp,reasoned argument from him or his campaign;that’s not why the Globalist wing of the GOP enginnered his nomination. If he attacks the democrats and Obama effectively, congressional democrats will lose seats,and then, who will vote for the dream of the globalist plutocracy,open borders which Mcnumbskull shares?The GOP,in the end doesn’t care whether Obama wins,and withdraws from Iran as long as he tries his hardest to turn the US into a larger,slightly more prosperous version of Mexico.
Jul 18, 2008 - 6:43 pm 56. jp:deguello
Since when is the US in Iran??????
Jul 19, 2008 - 6:29 am 57. kabud:deguello:
so true. And MORE:
Jul 19, 2008 - 8:32 am 58. deguello:http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2008/0718.html
Mr Hanson:That’s like asking my aunt to grow balls so she could my uncle.Mcnumbskull can’t afford to sharpen his message;if he did, he might hurt the democrats,and cause them to lose the votes he needs to impose his ultimate agenda of open borders and globalization.
Jul 23, 2008 - 3:00 pm