How We Got Where We Are—Turning Points of the Primaries
Candidates have intrinsic strengths and make their own fate, but the primary campaign did not necessarily have to end up where it did—since the following events were as pivotal as they were unexpected
1. Bill Clinton’s decision to drop the bite-the-lip therapeutic self and revert to the war-room hack, which along with Hillary’s clumsy civil rights revisionism turned off the liberal media.
2. Michelle Obama’s fiery speeches, that along with Oprah’s omnipresence, ended all notion that Barrack Obama was not black enough, and helped solidify the African-American base.
3. The Obama team’s decision to avoid detail and concentrate on his rock-star sermons on “change” and “hope”, that hypnotized voters, who after they woke and found he had said nothing had already joined the pied piper. In contrast, Huckabee’s specifics—fair tax, Bush’s “arrogant” foreign policy, invading Pakistan—proved the dangers of a rookie not talking only about “hope and change.”
4. Rudy Giuliani’s disastrous decision to delay, forgo face time and press coverage, and invest in Florida, based on the false assumption that leads in the national polls are static and are immune from the human desire to switch and side with the winner—even if the perception was created in tiny caucuses or small states primaries.
5. The New York Times’ decision to run serial stories on Giuliani’s personal life and petty sins of a decade prior.
6. Hillary’s scripted tear that gave her a second chance even as her cackle and screeching voice helped lose the first
7. The success of the surge by September/October that gave the McCain candidacy not only a second life, but also sanctioned his lonely and principled stand on the war when few were willing to invest in Iraq.
8. Mitt Romney’s decision to go negative in TV ads rather than give uplifting human speeches that proved effective only at the very end of his effort
9. Talk radio and right-wing base attacks on McCain that won him fides with independents and moderates, and some sympathy from mainstream Republicans
10. The vast dislike of the Clintons in the media, punditry, and among Democratic politicians–cf. Bill’s lectures and finger pointing and Hillary’s whining– who were all looking for a spark to ignite
He Kept Us Safe?
If we are not hit again, and if Iraq continues to settle down, in five years President Bush will be reassessed as the one who kept us safe after 9/11 when popular wisdom insisted that more attacks were to come. Soon someone will write a history detailing the losses al Qaeda suffered in Afghanistan and Iraq from a perspective other than “we created more terrorists”— such as “we killed thousands of committed terrorists over there, not here.”
The Illinois Shooter
No one has an answer to these serial incidents of deranged shooters murdering students. Explanations abound: the culture of the violent video game blurs reality; lack of meds; cultural relativism; easy access to guns; inability of ‘normal’ people to carry concealed guns, etc.
After watching dozens of news reports on the incident, I know all I want to know about the murderer and all the catalysts. My only reaction to this? Had this taken place in 1935 or 1948, the reports would have talked of a “no-good” or an “evil” “criminal” and wondered where the “cops” were and why someone did not shoot him in mediis rebus—and we would have learned very little of his psychological state, upbringing or even motivation other than he was “crazy” or “a monster”.
California’s implosion
Apparently we are back to Gray Davis-like multibillion deficits again. The problem is not Republican or Democratic in California, but structural and built on three dilemmas. Our high income taxes, spiraling sales taxes, and high property assessments are driving out to neighboring, low- tax states our upper-middle class taxpayers. Meanwhile illegal immigration has led to a quarter-million or so a year of illegal aliens arriving without high school diplomas. The results are vanishing high tax-payers, and more and more of those in need of subsidies and entitlements.
Two, the UC, CSU, JC and high-school and grade school systems have been micromanaged from the legislature, and are now largely therapeutic. For thirty years, we have raised an entire generation that cannot read, compute, or reason in a competent fashion, while being indoctrinated that they are important, “somebody” and deserving of esteem. The result is that our educational, political, and government leadership is, well, mostly ignorant, borrowing to create programs and entitlements while state infrastructure was allowed to deteriorate and languish.
Finally, the baby-boomer mentality of “me first” is parasitic: prior generations built our freeways, airports, universities, ports, and rail for us to enjoy. So we ran on their fumes, had a good time, and never invested for our own children. The port at LA has no quick exit links, LAX is a nightmarish airport; the UC campuses (cf. the catalog curriculum at UC Santa Cruz) are noncompetitive; I-5, 101, and the 99 are in perpetual catch-up expansion mode; there is essentially only two all-weather ways to leave the state from West to East over or around the Sierra.
The strangest development is the mixture of the primordial and the postmodern: I get lengthy ag and environmental reports to fill out about a tiny 40-acre parcel that would require a PhD to fathom, and are no doubt filed and forgotten—even as down the road every imaginable zoning, health, and environmental violation is ignored. While I was trying to figure out the exact number of pipeline feet on the farm (who cares?) on my government form, one-quarter mile a way, several Winnebago’s on wheels, outhouses, and dozens live in supposedly single-house parcel. The logic: apparently I am more likely to follow the nonsensical law, while the others are beyond hope in meeting the very critical statute. The felony is now so egregious and widespread that it is mostly unenforceable, so the bureaucratic mind always prefers the misdemeanor that can be addressed.
Meanwhile Back on the Clash of Civilizations Front
British police chiefs claim that there were 17,000 reported crimes of honor “violence” (including murder) last year in the UK. Surely this must be a mistake? Are we to believe that over 45 Middle Eastern UK residents are beaten or killed every day?
Consider the antithesis this past week:
Them—honor violence in the UK; plot broken up to kill the Danish cartoonists; Turkish Prime Minister announces in Germany to Turkish residents that assimilation is a crime against humanity; videos posted of al Qaeda burning prisoners alive; reports of Al Qaeda recruiting women with Down’s syndrome and other mental ailments to serve as human bombs.
Us—Archbishop of Canterbury announces imposition of Sharia Law is “unavoidable; Congress shuts down without passing renewal of ant-terrorist statutes; Obama reiterates proposed withdrawal from Iraq within 60 days of his inauguration; Hirsi Ali pleads in vain for EU security details while in Europe; Nancy Pelosi announces surge has “failed”; Zbigniew Brzezinski visits Syria at time marquee terrorists are murdered, and exposed as having lived here with full knowledge of government.
So the question remains, is the third millennium up to battle against the first? Are we arguing over wiretaps while al Qaeda burns its captives alive in Iraq?
Obamiana
Barrack Obama’s team should begin to worry that in the popular culture and even the mainstream media, people are beginning automatically to associate his set speech with vapidity, “hope” and “change” with saying nothing. If not curtailed, that Pavlovian identification will take on a life of its own.
Historians will wonder at what point the post-racialist Obama, who, it was alleged, “was not black enough”, transmogrified into “The Black Candidate” and began winning 85-95% of the black vote, even when head-to-head with the wife of the honorary “black” president. The downside, as Hillary’s campaign seems to be trying to exploit, is that racial identity politics married with appeals to upscale yuppie whites, is beginning to turn off other minorities such as Asians and Hispanics, as well as working whites. One lives and dies with appeals to the tribe, whether intended or not. A good example was Cruz Bustamante’s run for governor during the California Gray Davis recall. Suddenly commercials ran with crowds of Mexican-Americans shouting and waving red flags, and his ratings nosedived with each spot that aired.
Obama may well capture the nomination, but there is an outside chance that he will lose to Hillary all the key states so important in the general elections—California, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, and New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. Not a good sign for the November elections.
Much of the rhetoric of the Obama campaign concerns mortgage and student loans, with the clear implication that the borrower has been victimized, and is need of federal redress. Two observations: prior to the mortgage meltdown, the rhetoric had been “home ownership” or the notion that the “non-traditional” borrower had to be accommodated to get him into a first home. Now such marginal borrowers apparently were “tricked”, or coerced into buying more home than they could afford.
The same logic will apply to student loans, as we begin to hear all sorts of bail-out programs aimed at those “burdened”. Perhaps true, but in a great many of cases, many had no business going into debt for college, since they were not yet motivated and only limped through the undergraduate years, attending class haphazardly in a holding pattern, unsure whether to graduate or work or sort of both.
It may be a conservative canard, but the common theme of the Obama rhetoric is that the US is a depressingly oppressive place, where the poor citizen has not much income and gets no help from an uncaring government. It all sounds like 1929, not the entitlement colossus of 2008.
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19 Comments
1. Allison Aller:All true, and it all burns…
But let’s hear you speak (as ever, articulately and with deep perspective) about our intrinsic strengths as well, at least for one entry. Those things are equally important to keep in mind, esp. in the face of such insanity.
Feb 16, 2008 - 8:56 pm 2. JOATMON:Love the great work. I was surprised to read that you have a condition that you wouldn’t leave California in a recent posting. I’m a former California resident who fled TAXifornia for Nevada. Price of Real Estate in NV is 40% (sq ft basis), no income tax vs. 9% marginal over 40K, sales tax > 1% lower, etc. What are the liberals going to do when all of the conservatives leave? They won’t PAY for the full bill of their ideas – I get to chat with them at family holiday gatherings!
Feb 16, 2008 - 9:32 pm 3. tanstaafl:The felony is now so egregious and widespread that it is mostly unenforceable, so the bureaucratic mind always prefers the misdemeanor that can be addressed.
“We deal with what we’re capable of dealing with. That way it looks like we’re doing something.”
…is the third millennium up to battle against the first? Are we arguing over wiretaps while al Qaeda burns its captives alive in Iraq?
See above explanation.
Feb 17, 2008 - 7:00 am 4. Mark William Paules:RE: California.
When the body politic believes that it’s okay to rob Peter to pay Paul, economic collapse is inevitable. Atlas Shrugged should be mandatory reading for all high school students given that it’s more relevent today than ever. Socialists complain about corporate greed, yet fail to see personal greed in the demand for more entitlements. But then hypocrisy is a way of life for such people.
Throw identity politics into the mix and you get the perfect storm. Citizens squabble amongst themselves for their “fair” share while power accrues to those who can successfully manipulate and control a tribalized society. Eventually you get what we see in Europe: a new privileged elite that rules by legislative and judicial fiat.
What we see today in America, even more so in Europe, is a form of societal decadence. Restoration can occur only by embracing the virtues: hard work, discipline, deferred gratification, and duty. The current road leads only to historical oblivian, but it’s a choice.
Feb 17, 2008 - 7:31 am 5. WildBill (from O'er the hill):Dr. Hanson,
Feb 17, 2008 - 7:39 am 6. L. Schulte:I am an escapee (retired) from state gov’t, and couldn’t agree more with your assessment of the quality of gov’t employees – particularly at the mid and upper management levels – and the reasons for their incompetence. Noting that gov’t seems to be motivated by ‘position and power’ rather than private industry’s ‘cost and schedule’, and certainly not performance, it is a wonder even the most basic services are provided to citizens.
Grammar point: “had took” ???
“Had this took place in 1935 or 1948, ”
Proper past subjunctive: had taken.
A fellow classicist and Germanicist will assume that it was written late at night or early in the morning!
Best Wishes!
Feb 17, 2008 - 7:50 am 7. David Thomson:Barrack Obama’s team needs to figure out how to hide Michelle! The woman is very strange—and will turn off the middle of the road voters. Thankfully, there are a number of Internet links to the most insane things that have come out of her mouth. The MSM will find it very difficult to make Michelle seem rational and balanced. I also suspect that John McCain may win by a landslide in November. The Democrats seem to be self destructing. They appear to be running campaigns that will attract only 40% of the voters. That’s roughly the total George McGovern received in the 1972 election.
Feb 17, 2008 - 8:09 am 8. Fred Beloit:The decision to post that horrific video of our enemies burning their prisoners to death, while it must have caused pause, was the correct one. There is no way our courteous and finicky ways of war caused these savages to be that evil. They are that way by nature and upbringing. Mark it well, America.
Feb 17, 2008 - 9:02 am 9. Ivanhoe:So the question remains, is the third millennium up to battle against the first? Are we arguing over wiretaps while al Qaeda burns its captives alive in Iraq?
It may seem a minor point, but if Dr. Hanson’s implication is that we should not be arguing over domestic wiretaps and doing so is indulgent trivia compared to the medieval barbarity of the terrorist, I think he misses the point. Citizens demanding that a close eye be kept on the federal government here make our system stronger, not weaker. Dr. Hanson has written before that our system has vetted all of its failures, dirty laundry and shortcomings for all the world to see, and that a transparent government is what makes us different in all of history, and he is correct. So while arguing the merits, pitfalls and deciding who has oversight of domestic wiretaps may seem petty compared to the larger task of destroying Al Qaeda, it is not; it is exactly this sort of full-throated donnybrook that makes us different. A brief review of criticism of FDR during WWII, Lincoln during the Civil War, all administrations during the Cold War, wars when our very survival was at stake, shows this public debate is nothing new, so I say revel in it; to me it shows the strength of our system, not its weakness.
As one who was no fan of the Iraq War and George W. Bush, I think history will be much kinder about his conduct of this conflict than the conventional wisdom today. If indeed it must fall to the US, once again, to shoulder the burden of keeping tyranny and dictatorship at bay, then John McCain is clearly the person for the job. As the nomination processes for both parties conclude, a process, which involves less than 10% of the voting population that normally turns out in presidential election, the stark contrast between John McCain and Barack Obama will be much clearer, especially cast against an unstable globe.
Feb 17, 2008 - 9:52 am 10. cfbleachers:McCain would be foolish to ignore the “change” freight train though. One demographic interpretation of the Obama phenomena is that a lot of non-Boomers are simply sick of the self-obsessed Boomer generation, and wants us off the stage. Young people my children’s age have started focusing on the entitlements mess we will be leaving them, and they are rightfully angry about it. Turning to Obamanomics will only worsen that pitiful situation, but anger at us Boomers, well placed in my opinion, is there, and will manifest itself in many ugly ways in the next decade.
The problem that I share with you VDH, is that we are both turn of the century at heart, unfortunately, not this century.
We would much prefer those who chose to run, sought to serve principles rather than principals.
We would much prefer not to have our opinions spoon fed to us, pre-masticated in soundbite size pieces.
We would much prefer that our news be delivered to us without the need for two tablets of Dramamine and that there was at least a modicum of difference from the front page and the editorial page.
We would much prefer that the “best of us” would sacrifice in order to run for office to represent the whole of us, rather than the most narcissistic of us running for the power to pander to the farthest fringes in an ever widening orbit away from the nucleus of what we stand for and against.
We would much prefer that empty campaign rhetoric would be replaced by honest and intelligent discussion of issues that matter to the republic for which we stand, rather than lightweight lightning rod issues that stand down the republic in the eyes of the world.
We live in a time in America where the media owns the truth, decides what it is, shapes it, repackages it and then tsk tsk’s those who have the temerity to distrust it. We would rather live in a time when the facts were treasured, not measured.
Keep up the good fight VDH. Your patience and eloquence far exceed my own. For my part, I would tear down the two party system completely, expose its fringes for what they are, cease the mindless pandering and start over from scratch. You are a far better man than I…and for that we are forever in your debt.
Feb 17, 2008 - 10:07 am 11. James- The Historian:Here is a slightly different perspective on the need for the government to finance higher education.
1. Let’s start with the institutions themselves and cut the cost of all the unnecessary non degree track socialist programs that continue to drive up expenses.
2. Start by going to a very affordable Community College for the first two years and save tens of thousands in costs, learn in much smaller lower division classes, be taught by career educators as opposed to grad assistants and avoid the room and board bills.
We do not need federal subsidies, we need common sense.
Feb 17, 2008 - 10:25 am 12. Morton Doodslag:There appears to be an inverse relationship when it comes to the politics of victimhood between the rhetoric and vitriol used, and the actual conditions on the street. For example, the West has never been more affluent — society has never been more open to opportunities for “oppressed” people, there have never been more handouts and assistance for “the poor” than today. Yet their narrative would convince you that things have never been worse for women, blacks, and other minorities. Never mind that a black man and a woman have risen to the pinnacle of power — never mind that blacks and women have become billionaires in various industries — never mind that more wealth resides in more American homes than ever before in history — We are told by these victimology pimps that it has never been worse, that government oppression has never been more ominous (this while advocating the largest expansions of government power in human history…).
This has an ominous parallel in Islam. The more concessions these demanding ungrateful and greedy Muslims extract from the West, the more vicious their denunciations of us become. Preposterous claims of victimhood at our hands become more lurid and inflamed daily. The more concessions and money and open hands proffered to Pakistanis and “Palestinians” and Saudis — the more venomous hatred treachery and contempt spews from their mouths.
It’s clear that the deal of “winning the hearts and minds” of people who claim victimhood, and then demand endless concessions from us is no deal whatsoever. Their greedy maw is a bottomless pit of demand, and their hatred and contempt is a bottomless well of poison.
The victim pimps of the Left along with the victim pimps of Islam only become emboldened and inflamed by concessions from us.
Perhaps it was never about concessions in the first place, but about a deliberate tactic to subvert, demoralize and destroy the object of their hatred by bleeding it dry and spitting on its corpse.
The Western edifice is the object of the Left’s hatred, and of Islam’s venomous hatred. It has proven through its actions that it is hardly monster both Islam and the Left claim. It has repeatedly proven itself to be fair and open to concessions and extremely generous. It proves itself through actions to be both tolerant, and open to change. Yet this fact doesn’t mollify the demands of Islam’s and the Left’s high priests. Our actions have only increased their greedy demands and their vitriol.
Think of it — we allow millions of Muslims to immigrate into the hated West where we dispense opportunities and a helping hand. We treat them as worthies, encourage them to succeed. They repay us with venom and treachery, and a honed desire to see us annihilated.
On the left, 6 decades of concessions to change and true progress doesn’t engender much respect or fondness for our system. Our actions have fueled their increasingly histrionic rhetoric of victimhood, and expression of hatred for our system until it is beyond parody.
“Winning hearts and minds” seems like an abject failure. We only did it with the Japanese and the Germans after so soundly kicking their asses that they didn’t dream of stabbing us in the back. Perhaps we should reconsider our approach to the Left and Islam?
Feb 17, 2008 - 11:27 am 13. Rob Mandel:Professor,
I have admired your work and wisdom for several years. I have committed myself to reading the classical histories, and cannot help but feel we are already too far along to face what the Romans did, and too, face their same fate. I don’t have your scholarly background, and you could well elaborate far better than I.
However, considering that fully (or almost fully) half the population will vote for a candidate that promises socialist utopianism, I cannot think other than we are doomed. We are trillions in debt, have tens of trillions more in unfunded entitlements in the near future, a corroding infrastructure, deep cultural/tribal divides (democrats split between the “black” vote, the “hispanic” vote, et al. while republicans languish over the “conservative” vote. no more stark a contrast possible: race vs. ideology), and are becoming a de facto bi/multi-lingual society. e pluribus no more.
Half of all Americans pay no income taxes, yet benefit enormously from the half that do. And they demand only more.
Please offer a glimmer of hope. It isn’t that we’ve not faced serious hurdles previously, it’s that the very nature of our republic is lost. It reminds me of Ammianus, who knew Rome’s best was in the past, yet couldn’t come to admit it. I hope I’m wrong, but fear I’m not.
Feb 17, 2008 - 3:48 pm 14. Steve MacDonald:One minor comment/correction. I believe “upscale yuppie whites” to be a subset of “working whites.”
I have always found the popular and over worked “working class” to be an extremely unhelpful and innacurate term in identifying groups of people/voters. I believe working whites and working class to be virtually synonomous in this context.
Aside from my pet grievance, great post.
Feb 18, 2008 - 12:50 am 15. jdg:The very idea that college kids should get loans is silly. They go to class for 12 to 15 hours a week (if they are “full time”) and many be do another 5 hours a week of homework, if they are “highly motivated”). And what? They can’t work part time to pay tuition and very modest living expenses? Please.
The fact is, most college kids get drunk and do drugs multiple times per week and have lots of free time on their hands. When they graduate, few of them are productive employees. Fewer still are loyal.
They don’t need loans. They need to grow up and be accountable.
Feb 18, 2008 - 6:16 am 16. Bowden Russell:Jdg,
You are correct. The current generation in their 20’s are beyond morally bankrupt/corrupt. They are lazy with a capital “L” and it’s the 800 pound gorilla no one wants to mention.
They spend most of the down-time at college drinking. Let them get a job like I did when I was their age.
Of course I’m not suprised that they are Obama’s key constituency.
A pack of drunks and hop-heads. Way to go Democratic Party.
Feb 20, 2008 - 10:52 am 17. Trudy B. Taylor:ahhhh…the trouble with (college)kids these days… it really dates us old timers (read: boomers, and how ironic is that?)to be complaining about those whippersnappers,eh? but let me add my opinion to the pile. most of these students would be doing everyone, including their parents and themselves, a favor if they would go to a good, local jr college for the first 60 hours (notice i didnt say first two years) of their post secondary scholastic sojourns . the next stop should be a reasonably good state college or university. there they should research and choose a major that will actually translate into a job which pays a living wage, this would not be psychology, anthropology, or sociology for starters.
Feb 21, 2008 - 1:01 pm 18. Simon Kenton:parents should step up to the plate and make a few demands in these areas.
Trudy B. Taylor -
We had this discussion as each of my kids went to college:
- I do not pay for grades below C.
Feb 22, 2008 - 5:44 am 19. David:- I do not pay for useless degrees. Gender studies, queer studies, women’s studies, sociology, anthropology.
- you match your debt to your future income. Medical school is one debt level, elementary ed is another.
Yes, Trudy….my children both attended our local junior college for their first “60 hours” and, in the main, had classes at least every bit as serious and substantial as what they later encountered at state universities (”Advertizing and Self Esteem”, “Women’s Perspective on the Media”, etc.). Not to mention the greater affordability which allowed my kids to work and earn their own way in those first years…and gain a true “perspective” on their daily lives.
Feb 22, 2008 - 7:13 am