Now I’m the first to admit to not having a clue what’s going on. Our eight-year drought seems to have ended a couple years back, we’re enjoying mild summers, October was freezing… and November is warm. Go figure.
But is anthropogenic global warming worse than junk science? Is it fraud science? 62 megabytes of hacked emails and other files would indicate…
From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@XXXX, mhughes@XXXX
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.briffa@XXX.osborn@XXXX
Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim’s got a diagram here we’ll send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.
I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone XXXX
School of Environmental Sciences Fax XXXX
University of East Anglia
Norwich
And…
From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming ? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low.
This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)
***
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.***
And…
From: Phil Jones
To: “Michael E. Mann”
Subject: IPCC & FOI
Date: Thu May 29 11:04:11 2008
Mike,
Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment – minor family crisis.
Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address.
We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.
I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!!
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit
Well this isn’t looking very good.
What makes me most skeptical, however, isn’t the emails — it’s the proposed solutions to the “crisis.”
Here’s what I mean.
The nature of the crisis changes as needed. It’s getting too hot, it’s getting too cold, free markets are for meanies, TV is too dirty, there are only so many radio stations, this one guy got more stuff than this other guy…
But the solution always remains the same: Give the government more power to tax and regulate and control.
No thanks. Get out. Take a flying leap at your own bottom.
If I don’t like the weather, I’ll adjust the damn thermostat, mmkay?
I’ve been taking a sick day — but I saturated my skull with enough steam (and Dayquil) to get through taping this week’s Hair of the Dog. On the big show:
Obama — will he or won’t he commit to Afghanistan?
So the forceful decision in our War of Necessity is… Afghanistanization. Or something. Anyway, policy reviews going on since, supposedly, February, have resulted in this:
President Barack Obama does not plan to accept any of the Afghanistan war options presented by his national security team, pushing instead for revisions to clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government, a senior administration official said Wednesday.
Obama still is close to announcing his revamped war strategy, most likely shortly after he returns from a trip to Asia that ends on Nov. 19.
The president raised questions at a war council meeting on Wednesday, however, that could alter the dynamic of both how many additional troops are sent to Afghanistan and what the timeline would be for their presence in the war zone, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Obama’s thinking.
Throwing out all the Pentagon recommendations doesn’t bother me, to be quite frank. President Bush did exactly that in September, 2001. Bush’s JCS presented him with what the Pentagon typically comes up with — a big, slow build-up, followed by a great big invasion. The whole thing would have taken six-12 months, by my reckoning — and that’s under ideal circumstances. Instead, Bush told them all to try again.
The JCS responded with a new, “small footprint” plan, that ended Taliban rule in just six weeks. A good leader knows when to tell his subordinates that they’re effing clueless. So don’t fret too much if Obama doesn’t necessarily like the taste of whatever swill the Pentagon is dishing out. The Pentagon has acres of no-good plans, and when the stuff hits the fan, you can guess which plans get pulled off the shelf first.
Then again — Bush did all this in a few days. Obama’s been at it since August. Well, March, actually. And he decided on a new direction back in 2008. Or maybe ‘07. As Jules Crittenden describes the process towards developing a system for reaching a decision to give the matter some considered consideration:
In fairness, even if the president did declare back in 2008 this war was a vital national security interest, and he did signal last spring he was on board with counterinsurgency, and even if he did appoint Gen. Stanley McChrystal to get the job done in May, the general’s recommendations only arrived in August, and the president didn’t look at them until, what, late September, and he’s been really busy this whole time letting Congress bollix his health-care initiative, throwing Eastern Europe under the bus and flying to Copenhagen, that kind of thing, so he’s only been able to squeeze in seven high-level national security meetings, or is it eight? Is it so unreasonable to ask for new options on top of the new options that he asked for on top of the new options that McChrystal gave him? Meanwhile, China’s ass wants kissing and then we’re into the holidays…
Now, I was told back in 2008 by a very smart retired Army guy — who went to work at a pretty high level for the Obama campaign — that four combat brigades were exactly what we needed in Afghanistan, and that that’s exactly what his candidate was promising to send over there. OK, great — mission accomplished. Except that maybe they aren’t enough. Or maybe they’re too much. It all depends on what the definition of “mission” is.
Which, after 18 months of campaigning on the issue and nine months of being the damn CINC, you’d think Obama would know what he wants to do over there. Honestly, the only thing that he ought to still be thinking about is how best to achieve his goals — if we were still living back in March.
But already it’s half past November. And it’s looking more and more like this time we’re really going to see that harsh Afghan winter.
Third and final Trifecta segment for this week. It’s Bill Whittle’s turn to sit in the Paul Lynde Memorial Square — and he has Scott Ott and me look at two American presidents, and how they treat (and are treated by) the soldiers under their command.
Whether or not her bill survives in the Senate is immaterial: Pelosi’s hard-won, trench-warfare win sets a new standard for U.S. women politicians and is certainly well beyond anything the posturing but ineffectual Hillary Clinton has ever achieved.
As for the actual content of the House healthcare bill, horrors! Where to begin?
And that’s coming from a fairly left-leaning liberal who basically agrees that there ought to be a lot more government interference with health care. Meanwhile, here’s what that other august intellect, Bill Clinton, had to say on the matter:
“The point I want to make is: Just pass the bill, even if it’s not exactly what you want,” Clinton told Democrats. “When you try and fail, the other guys write history.”
Go on and betray your conscience. Go on and pass bad legislation. Go on and do potentially irreparable harm to the country. Because if you don’t, somewhere, a Republican might look good.
Oh, horrors, indeed.
There are statesmen, there are politicians, and then there are cheap whores who would sell out their country for a vote.
And here I always thought Clinton was just a politician.
This week’s first Trifecta segment is up. Scott Ott, Bill Whittle and I take on the mysterious dearth of celebrations on the 20th Anniversary of the West’s victory in the Cold War.
By the way, the shoot today was exhausting. We did the usual three segments, leading off with mine on the Wall and the Cold War. Then Scott and Bill took turns hosting different angles of last week’s Ft. Hood massacre… and by the time it was done, we all needed drinks.
The president still has more meetings scheduled on Afghanistan, but informed sources tell CBS News he intends to give Gen. Stanley McChrystal most, if not all, the additional troops he is asking for.
McChrystal wanted 40,000 and the president has tentatively decided to send four combat brigades plus thousands more support troops. A senior officer says “that’s close to what [McChrystal] asked for.” All the president’s military advisers have recommended sending more troops.
I’m still not convinced we have a realistic endgame in mind for Afghanistan, and four additional combat brigades* seems too small a force to win outright. But it’s too large a commitment — not just in blood and treasure, but in prestige — for any result we’re likely to achieve.
However, the President is the commander-in-chief, and gets the benefit of the doubt. For now.
How do you get over the drab, weaselly awfulness of the Sunday morning chat shows? You let me watch them for you, then sit back and enjoy the merciless picking-on I’ve conned PJTV into paying me to perform. On this week’s Hair of the Dog:
We set the snark aside for a sec for a tale of heroism from Ft. Hood.
The 3,425 things the health bill requires you to do, including detailing Pelosi’s Prius.
Introducing the Weasel Alert!
Plus, Rachel Maddow’s secret role model. You’ll think he’s… cool.
Happy liberty anniversary, Eastern Europe. I don’t know what you call it over there in eastern Germany or Poland or Hungary or anywhere else, but here we keep referring to it as “the fall of the Wall.”
And that’s not right.
History is made up mostly of accidents. So we ought to take special care to remember the things that happened on purpose.
The Berlin Wall didn’t just fall down. It was torn down. It was torn down by the very people it was built to cage.
They’re heroes for doing it, too.
Victory in the Cold War wasn’t an accident, some freak gravity surge that made a wall fall down when no one was looking. Victory came on purpose, because one man — Ronald Reagan — stood in front of that Wall and demanded, “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!”
Mikhail Gorbachev refused, of course. But the people of eastern Europe heard Reagan’s call, and they responded. Did I mention they’re heroes?
Once the tally board lit up 218-213, however, Cao was free to put his congressional voting card in electronic key slot and cast an “aye” vote for the bill his party has dubbed “Pelosi’s healthcare bill.”
[snip]
As soon as the House started the final vote for the day, Cao voted and dashed out the side of the chamber, plugging his ears in jest when reporters approached to find out what happened.
According to a written statement released later that night, Cao explained that Obama had promised to help out the lawmaker’s district still devastated from Hurricane Katrina.
How do you cure high unemployment and sluggish growth?
Proven methods include reducing regulation and lowering taxes.
So it comes as no surprise that the House has just approved one of (if not the) biggest increases in taxes and regulation after virtually zero debate and in the middle of a weekend night when almost no one is paying attention.
They’re cowards. Shrewd cowards, but cowards still.
JUST A THOUGHT: If no one has done the math on this one, I wish they would. Which is the greater number: Pages in the bill the House just passed, or the minutes spent debating it?
Another week, another edition of PJM Political. On the big show:
Five Questions For James Lileks — including questions about the midterms and The Big Episode of Mad Men last week.
Joe Hicks of PJTV.com on the GOP’s Epic NY-23 Fail during Tuesday’s elections.
PJM producer Ed Driscoll interviews author/historian Jennifer Burns about her new book, Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right.
Glenn Reynolds reports from the recently concluded 17th annual State Policy Network meeting in Ashville, NC.
From PJTV’s Poliwood, Pajamas CEO Roger L. Simon and fellow Academy Award-nominated screenwriter Lionel Chetwynd debate the controversial statements from Rocco Landesman, National Endowment for the Arts chairman conflating the writings of President Obama with…Julius Caesar?!
Plus, a special audio edition of Trifecta, with Dana Loesch, Scott Ott, and yours truly.
Fannie Mae needs another $15 billion to cover losses due to loaning money to people who couldn’t afford to pay it back — and that’s just from this last quarter.
