September 12th, 2009 5:18 pm

Marching by (Extrapolated) Numbers

Charlie Martin — a computer scientist with extensive intelligence experience — emails from his secret bunker near Boulder, CO:

I did a back-of-envelope based on the photos and reports. A pretty dense crowd is about 1.8 people per square meter, and the National Mall alone is about 125 hectares, 1.25 million square meters. So that would be 2.3 million people.

Given the report from Steve of an actual literal count of 450K early on, I think the 2 million number is *very* plausible.

Knowing Charlie like I do, I’m inclined to trust his guestimates more than most people’s “facts.”

Which in this case… whoa.

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103 Comments

1. Phineas:

I was doubting it was more than a million, but, if Charlie’s right… wow!

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:21 pm 2. Stephen Green:

Phineas –

It’s barely possible to get three people to agree on Chinese take-out, which why I’m always suspicious of crowd estimates. I mean, how do you get a million people to do something all at once?

But Charlie’s one of the smartest people I’ve ever known in real life, and a wicked-good mathematician.

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:26 pm 3. tree hugging sister:

The pictures just defy the imagination.

Outfrickin’standing.

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:35 pm 4. WTFCI:

I’m searching back through twitpic, but I was certain I saw photos that showed the entire mall was not full.

Here’s one. This might be the rear of the event as of 1:26PM CST.
http://twitpic.com/hieo2

Here’s a cap from CSPAN as of 10:38AM CST.
http://twitpic.com/hhk5f

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:36 pm 5. RAH:

The crowd covers a lage area but it was not packed as other crowds in Dc have been . For instance it did not cover the entire monument grounds from the air photos. My guestimat is about a million.

Videos shows easy movement through the crowds which does not happen if packed.
So I think 1-1.5 million is a decent guess but not 2.5 million that would cover the monument and other areas.

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:40 pm 6. bill:

It would be nice to see a major media outlet report more on the numbers, other than just “tens of thousands”.

500,000 is not tens of thousands … neither is 2 million. Are there aerial pics, which could be compared to previous events?

Sep 12, 2009 - 5:41 pm 7. Charlie (Colorado):

Well, you guys have my methodology there, and like any back of the envelope calculation, it’s going to have some significant error. 2.3 million is what I’d think was an upper bound: that’s having the whole mall about half as crowded as the people leaving a pro football game, or equivalently about people on average about six feet apart.

500,000 would put those people on average 30 feet apart, or more likely only cover about 1/5th of the mall. That’s clearly too low, from the pictures.

But we’ve got Barbara Espinosa’s actual count of 1.5 million, and some certainty that some people came to the thing by other routes. So, I’m comfortable with 2 million ± 20 percent, or say 1.8 to 2.2 million.

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:01 pm 8. David Thomson:

“So, I’m comfortable with 2 million ± 20 percent, or say 1.8 to 2.2 million.”

Those are mind boggling numbers. Many of these people were politically indifferent a year ago. They are now studying the issues—and spending money! Obama reportedly only had roughly 15,000 attend his speech today in Minnesota. This is scaring the bowel movement out of the Left. Ironically, the election of Obama is inadvertently resulting in a center right renewal of America.

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:11 pm 9. frank martin:

I believe we have precedence to fall back on for our methods of data gathering in this case. In previous marches, such as the ironically named “million man” marches, the National Parks Services always is ready to offer up crowd estimates numbers for these sort of things. Anyone see any mention of the NPS at work in photo interpretation today?

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:19 pm 10. Scott:

“1.8 to 2.2 million”

Woohoo!

I know that here at the (much smaller) Tea Party event in Springfield, Missouri, the ACORN story was still all the rage, as in “Advance the Cause of Child Prostitution? YES! WE! CAN” at http://firebreathingchristian.wordpress.com/2009/09/10/advance-the-cause-of-child-prostitution-yes-we-can/

Talk about “community organizing”! ;-)

Keep up the good work and keep fighting the good fight!

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:29 pm 11. Beth M.:

The entire mall was not packed – the densest crowds were of course closer to the capital. But once you got down past 2nd St. or past the reflecting pool, there were people along the edges, but not dense crowds.

The cool part is that however many of us were there, it was the most civil group of people of that size!

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:34 pm 12. Pajamas Media » Tea Party Demonstrators: They Will Be Heard (Updated Continuously):

[...] Read the rest of the story here. (Also see: Marching by (Extrapolated) Numbers [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:40 pm 13. Bill Mitchell:

There was an “empty” section of the mall because another group had “reserved” that area for today and people were not allowed in there. So it was empty, not because there weren’t enough people to fill it but because people were not allowed in. You can see that there are people all around the closed off area.

Also, the crowd went all the way up to the Capitol, far beyong the traditional “mall” area. thsi crowd was HUGE peeps. 70,000 is a joke.

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:44 pm 14. Bill Mitchell:

Remember, dem operatives were sending out emails yesterday saying they were expecting about 2 million. So this shouldn’t be surprising. Also unsurprising that the MSM would vastly underestimate the crowd size. This is the same MSM that ran ZERO stories on Van Jones or the recent ACORN scandal.

Sep 12, 2009 - 6:48 pm 15. Tea Party Express hits DC… « Time for Thorns:

[...] [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:08 pm 16. Jody Green:

I was there today and 2 Million certainly seems possible. Think about this. If 2 million and each person spent on average $250 to attend (Extremely conservative) then at least a half a billion ($500,000,000) was spent on this event. You can bet some politicians would like to find a way to get some of that action.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:09 pm 17. bill:

Surely there will be some shots from a plane or helicopter … this would allow a little better estimate of density in different areas.

Also a full video of the march as it passed could confirm that 450,000 count.

And then many probably came in from different directions … a fairly well documented count would go a long way to discrediting the MSM that failed to offer much coverage or reasonable estimates of the numbers.

I’ll take 643,455 in the bar pool.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:15 pm 18. Michelle Malkin » Celebrating the 9/12 rallies; Turnout estimated at 2 million; Update: How many?:

[...] Charlie Martin extrapolates at Vodkapundit. [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:23 pm 19. Mark:

Interesting. I had concluded there were at least 1 million because of a Washington Post story at the time of the inauguration that quoted security experts as saying the sidewalks could hold 300,000.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:26 pm 20. Kind of says it all, doesn’t it? « Public Secrets:

[...] of says it all, doesn’t it? From today’s massive conservative demonstration in Washington, [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:30 pm 21. jaymaster:

Charlie,

Not to question your capabilities as a math whiz or anything, but 2 million +/- 20% is 1.6 to 2.4 million, I believe…

Again, not that that really matters, other than for the sake of mathematical factualness….

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:36 pm 22. SkylarkVA:

Spoke to police officer as we ewre leaving the DC rally this afternoon. He said he’d been told there were 1.92 million people there. There was a helicopter circling the area a couple of times so perhaps that was where their count came from. I was totally awesome!

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:41 pm 23. Calvin Ball:

2.3 million is what I’d think was an upper bound: that’s having the whole mall about half as crowded as the people leaving a pro football game, or equivalently about people on average about six feet apart.

500,000 would put those people on average 30 feet apart, or more likely only cover about 1/5th of the mall. That’s clearly too low, from the pictures.

When you say “feet apart”, that doesn’t work. Don’t you mean square feet per person? If you go from 6 feet apart to 30 feet apart, that’s going from 36 square feet per to 900 square feet per, which would mean that if you had 3.2 million @ 36 square feet, you”d have 92,000, not 500,000 @ 900.

What exactly are you assumptions for density?

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:48 pm 24. Calvin Ball:

So, I’m comfortable with 2 million ± 20 percent, or say 1.8 to 2.2 million.

2 million ± 20% is 1.6 to 2.4 million.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:51 pm 25. veeshir:

I’m not arguing with his math, but the crowd didn’t go that far down the Mall.
As someone said, one of the blocks was empty, but the blocks on the other side going to the Wash Monument were empty too, the crowd was very thick around the Capitol. Very thick, I couldn’t get too close, and the first block of the Mall was filled, but outside of that it slacked off.

I think 2 million is way, way high. I’ve been to Earth Days that were much, much bigger.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:52 pm 26. Robert:

We didn’t fill the Mall, not even close. (Wish we had!) The half closer to the Washington Monument was reserved for a national black family group (nice people from what we could see) having a big-ass picnic.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:52 pm 27. jaymaster:

And speaking of percentages, that’s about 0.5% to 0.7% of the ENTIRE US population. Pretty amazing!

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:53 pm 28. Stephen Green:

So is there a consensus developing here of 500k-1m in attendance?

That’s a helluva turnout.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:56 pm 29. RAH:

I live nearby and been at the fireworks and density on leaving is closer than shoulder to shoulder. This was a lot less dense but over a larger area. I believe and actual account of 1.5 million was done so the estimate of 1.92 ccould be right. 3 million fills from Capital and the entire Monument grounds and all the sidewalks and under the trees on the Mall grass itself.

I also heard that the entire area was clean and very little trash which is a difference from the inauguration where lots of trash was left behind

What was remarkable was the civil order and friendliness of the crowd.

The police did not plan nor did the Metro as they did for the inauguration. However there was no need for large police presence since the crowd was well behaved. I heard singing America the Beuutiful.

Sep 12, 2009 - 7:57 pm 30. Calvin Ball:

Nevermind #23; Charlie said:

1.8 people per square meter.

That works out to about 6 square feet, or about 2.5 feet on a side. Not having the pictures I can’t confirm the area, but I think the calculations are basically correct assuming that “feet apart” means “square feet”, but Charlie, units, units, units.

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:02 pm 31. Calvin Ball:

I live nearby and been at the fireworks and density on leaving is closer than shoulder to shoulder.

The 1.8/m^2 number Charlie is using works out to a square for each person about 30″ on a side. That seems reasonable, but on the high side. Imagine a checkerboard with 30″ squares. One person on each square.

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:05 pm 32. tree hugging sister:

1.6 to 2.4 million in one place, and tens of thousands meeting around the country who couldn’t get to D.C. All against a guy who’s been in office a tad under eight months.

I do not think this is what he meant by “bringing us all together”.

Gotta be a record.

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:08 pm 33. Calvin Ball:

FWIW, the Daily Mail is reporting “up to 2 million”. They didn’t say what their source was.

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:12 pm 34. Tom the Redhunter:

Guys, I was there, and no way there were 2 million there. Reliable reports say more like 75,000, which is much more plausible.

And, before all of you freak out, a very respectable figure.

2 million is a LOT more people than some of you seem to think. And while it was crowded up around the Capitol Building, it thinned out as you went back to the Washington Monument.

Complete Report and Photos at The Redhunter

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:43 pm 35. bill:

Even at 400,000, the blackout by the major media is appalling … and the shots they give tend to be close up of small groups. They do the same for liberal groups at times, but for them they try to hide how small the crowd was, for this they hide how enormous it was.

ABC says 60,000 to 70,000. They have a link that says “watch the crowd march by”, but apparently they changed it, because it doesn’t show that.

Quincy, IL had Breitbart there, but only had about 2500 show up … a little disappointing.

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:46 pm 36. Skeet Fischer:

We were not allowed on the Mall. There were announcements made that we could not be on the Mall. There was an area on the Mall reserved for another group…we saw it the night before.

When we arrived at Freedom Plaza at 9 :30 am, we thought we could mingle and find our states, FL and GA respectively, though they lined up in reverse order…no way…the march had already started, as we left the Metro…no stopping…no place to go but to the Capitol, there was not room for We the People to stop, so we kept going! Clearly they had to start the program early! Don’t look at pictures of the Mall as an indicator. Look at the approach to the Capitol on PA Ave. People who never got to the area where we were allowed.

When we left there were people way out of camera range who could see nothing of the speakers/stage/ etc. but they could hear the message. The crowd was huge. An incredible experience!

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:50 pm 37. WOW!! « Nebraska Redneck:

[...] [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:52 pm 38. The Great Conservative Tea Party – Update 2.3 million? | Radio Vice Online:

[...] [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 8:56 pm 39. Tom Perkins:

34. Tom the Redhunter:

“Guys, I was there, and no way there were 2 million there. Reliable reports say more like 75,000, which is much more plausible.”

The discrepancy between the actual counts of 1.2 and 1.5 million people are simply to far off from your estimate of 75,000.

Care to explain how you are that far off? A factor of at minimum 16 to 1?

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:20 pm 40. Fresh Air:

…75,000, which is much more plausible

Put down the crack pipe, sir. The DEA is on their way.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:29 pm 41. countertop:

There was a huge crowd, for sure. In 12 yearsd of living in DC, its about the biggest (and best behaved) I’ve seen for a demonstration. Only innaugurations get more people.

HOWEVER, this 2 million number is ludicrous.

Heck,there wasn’t even a million people there.

For Obama’s innauguration, the mall was packed, shoulder to shoulder its entire strech. As your friend points out, that’s about 2 1/2 million.

Today, at its height, the crowd stretched from the West Front Lawn back to about 5th street, there was a sparse crowd going back to 7th, but no more so than on the average afternoon. Beyond that, THERE WAS AN ENTIRELY SEPERATE EVENT at the Smithsonieum-The National Black Family Reunion – and believe me they weren’t participating in the tea party.

I’d say there was a good couple hundred thousand people there. Maybe 4 or 500k.

But no where near 1 or 2 million.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:41 pm 42. Charlie (Colorado):

2 million ± 20% is 1.6 to 2.4 million.

Yeah, yeah. Teach me not to proof read my comments. Your figure are what I meant.

That works out to about 6 square feet, or about 2.5 feet on a side. Not having the pictures I can’t confirm the area, but I think the calculations are basically correct assuming that “feet apart” means “square feet”, but Charlie, units, units, units.

Dude, Taranto might be reading this. But think about it. If I’m in the middle of a square 2.5 feet on a side, and you’re in the middle of a 2.5 foot square next to me, then yeah we’re 2.5 feet apart.

Rattle people around a little and see what happens.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:47 pm 43. Calvin Ball:

42. That’s what happens on the backs of envelopes. Units are the first things to get hosed. But again, you seem to have gotten the right answer, even if you used the wrong words.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:54 pm 44. Veeshir:

I was told there would be no math.
But since there is…

Charlie, I’m going to assume you’re not Mr. A Square from Flatland so you’re gonna take up some of that 2.5 feet.
Actual results may vary.

There was that density or higher closer to the Capitol, but it tailed off fairly quickly.
2 million is not even close. It’s probably an order of magnitude off or more.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:56 pm 45. Calvin Ball:

There was a huge crowd, for sure. In 12 years of living in DC, its about the biggest (and best behaved) I’ve seen for a demonstration.

That’s another difference between the party of the environmentalists and the party not associated with them. The environmentalist party always leaves a huge mess behind to be cleaned up, and the other party doesn’t. Every time. Without fail.

Sep 12, 2009 - 9:58 pm 46. Tim:

My dad was there. Law enforcement was keeping people out of the one area of the mall. He said people filled the side streets as well. He said people were spilling out in all directions from the mall area.

Sep 12, 2009 - 10:06 pm 47. bill:

actually charlie … the body is about two feet wide, and a foot front to back, so you are packing them in like cordwood, almost.

That time lapse march looks impressive, but it is hard to count heads. 33 wide by 300 long per block is 10,000 per block (probably a very high estimate.) So 450,000 would be at least a 4 mile march?

But maybe that wasn’t the only large block of TEA partiers.

I’m wondering if some are trying to play the Alinsky way … pad the numbers … that’s what “they ” do.

Sep 12, 2009 - 10:09 pm 48. » Tea Party protestors set attendance record at Capital Mall Amorian: American Deist Lifestyle:

[...] [...]

Sep 12, 2009 - 10:11 pm 49. Charlie (Colorado):

Okay, let’s play a little more with this.

So 450,000 would be at least a 4 mile march?

Again, just working from published numbers, Barbara said the People Meter (whatever the hell that is, Google was no help) counted 450K at noon, and 1.5 million 2 hours later. That’s roughly 500K per hour. Assuming the crowd moves at 4mph, that would match a four mile crowd, but that seems a bit fast.

Now, any number I have is based on the density of the crowd. I’m hoping to have some better photos tomorrow, but in the mean time, let’s just look at some other assumptions. If we have .9 persons per m², and a 125 ha mall (figure was from Wikipedia) then that’s merely 1.1 million. Halve that again, and we’ve got about 550,000. That’s still a helluva march.

The only overview photo I’ve found so far is here: http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/09/two-million-or-306.html

The density of that looks a lot like this photo of the Million Man March: http://photo2.si.edu/mmm/mmm.html

Compare that with this photo of the Inauguration: http://www.popsci.com/content/inauguration-day

If we can say nothing stronger, it’s that this was at least 1.3 times as big as the Inauguration.

Sep 12, 2009 - 11:24 pm 50. tulip:

I was there. There is no way that there were 2 million or even 1 million people. The Capitol Grounds were pretty full (up to 3rd Street), but across the street — on the Mall itself — there was hardly anyone. Maybe a lot of people marched and then left right away instead of staying for the rally, but at the rally, I’d say 60-70,000 sounds accurate.

Sep 12, 2009 - 11:39 pm 51. Celebrity Paycut - Encouraging celebrities all over the world to save us from global warming by taking a paycut.:

[...] How many were there? [...]

Sep 13, 2009 - 12:46 am 52. Crusader:

LGF is claiming that it was only 75K, and says anyone arguing for 2 million is a “right wing website”. I think Charles Johnson has lost his mind.

Sep 13, 2009 - 12:48 am 53. Jonathan Nolan:

clearly this is the end result of Obama’s concerted and contemptuous subtext of “oh yeah, you’ll vote NEXT time, won’t you, rednecks?”

-not that the crowed is comprised of whites or any other group exclusively, other than that all-embracing group that defies definition- “Americans”.

All the protestors have in common is the Constitution and the Declaration. The answer to 2009 is 1776.

All that smirking barely concealed racist hatred with which everything he does is tinctured has to blow back sooner or later. And for the MSM to cut its own throat so comprehensively by ignoring and downplaying…

Thing of beauty, boss.

Sep 13, 2009 - 3:17 am 54. Dave:

How cum there’s no pattern recognition software (or something like that) that can count crowds from aerial photos?

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:16 am 55. Bruce Deemer:

Highly rational, detailed analysis. I’m a believer! A very descriptive, yet simple and well documented postulate!

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:25 am 56. jon:

Charlie (49), I don’t see where you get your figure of 1.3 times the inauguration numbers based on your photographic evidence. Two photos from different angles showing different things doesn’t make for much of a valued comparison.

Here’s what happened: someone on stage lied and said ABC News said that there were two million in attendance. Why the crowd believed ABC News, I don’t know. Then that lie was repeated. Then it was justified. And defended. And now there are people–who were there–who say 75,000 might be a good estimate, and they’re being attacked for saying what they think. Me? I’m waiting for some photos upon which some comparisons can actually be made, not some excuses about the people not being able to stand on the Mall. Plan ahead next time, and maybe you can get 5,000,000 (or 200,000.)

I don’t know why this movement needs so strongly to believe in a lie, but it seems fitting when it’s piled on all the other steer manure its ball-less leaders create.

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:38 am 57. tulip:

Charlie,

The picture you’re showing of yesterday was taking on Pennsylvania Avenue, which is a six lane street. The pictures of the Million Man March and the Inauguration are on the Mall — a two block wide strip of land. So, you’re comparing apples and oranges.

Yesterday’s event was not on the Mall at all. They did not have a permit for it and there was another event going on there. So you can’t use the 125 hectare number.

Sep 13, 2009 - 9:30 am 58. Charlie (Colorado):

How cum there’s no pattern recognition software (or something like that) that can count crowds from aerial photos?

I’m sure there is. NRO isn’t releasing it though. The real problem here is I’ve got no aerial photos to work from.

Jon, it’s by geometry: if the Mall was full from side to side, and the Inauguration was circular clumps, then the proportion is 4r/πr, which is 1.27323954or 1.3 to two digits.

Sep 13, 2009 - 9:49 am 59. tulip:

Hello? Yesterday’s event wasn’t on the Mall. Could you please acknowledge that fact?

Sep 13, 2009 - 9:58 am 60. bill:

sorry Charlie … ( someone had to say it, LOL )

watching the time lapse, the “parade” looks to be closer to one mile max … and there are probably fewer than 10,000 per block.

Maybe 50,000 in the parade …. more showing up for the other locations, and many roaming around the edges, checking out each others signs and booties …

Even at 75,000, a very nice turnout … it is so much easier to stay home and blog with a beer in hand.

Sep 13, 2009 - 10:01 am 61. WTFCI:

The Obama inaugeral and the Million Man March did draw a lot more people that the 912 event.

This photo, http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/09/two-million-or-306.html, shows the march down Pennsylvania ave that started at Freedom Plaza. I haven’t see an actual aerial shot yet. My guess is the attendance is somewhere in the 150,000 to 200,000 range. One quarter of the mall was packed densely. Another quarter was lightly packed. There was spillover to the north and south right in front of the stage just in front of the Capitol reflecting pool.

Freedom Works did have a pretty decent program put together, but the speeches were pretty weak. They could be much much better. I’m not sure how you organize this opposition. You can’t just hand out a leaflet that says “show up” the way you can in Marxists circles.

Sep 13, 2009 - 10:10 am 62. RC:

These sub million estimates are ludicrous.

Any big college stadium is 100,000 and if you have ever been to a sold out game (and many are usually sold out) it is easy to see in the time lapsed photo that the crowd is easily ten times what one would see looking around a full stadium.

Sep 13, 2009 - 10:19 am 63. JorgXMcKie:

tulip, it doesn’t matter where the event was, other than that it was on the ground. There’s this part of mathematics called ‘geometry’, which along with other kinds of maths, (like trigonometry and algebra and stuff) that allow us to compare. Do try to keep up. Will you acknowledge this fact?

Anyway, there are other things you can compare. For instance, it’s easy to find overhead shots of football stadiums at UofMichigan and Ohio State that show you known numbers of people (i.e. they fill every seat and we know how many seats there are, *plus* we know precisely how much space they take up) that we can then use to establish at least Charlie’s upper bounds. (My own work tends to show that ‘packed’ crowds [say rock concerts up front] where people don’t mind being ’scrunched’ have an individual in a minimum of 1.5 sq ft [1.5 ft by 1 ft, which is *really* tight -- no one can move, really] to more like 2.25 sq ft [still very tight].)

The Million Man March, at least has been measured by taking randomly generated ’squares’ of people seen from above, *literally* counting each one, then projecting from that. Seems to show about 600,000.

I’d be very surprised, indeed, if there weren’t more than 500,000 yesterday, and pending a really good overhead shot, it could be as high as 2,000,000. Those objecting are simply working with their heartfelt beliefs, and not math.

For instance, take the anti-war demonstration on the Ellipse in Sep of 2003 or 2004. Claimed 100,000, math easily shows (we *know* how big the Ellipse is, and we can estimate pretty well what part is covered) that there can’t possibly be as many as 50,000 there and almost certainly no more than 25,000.

Likewise, check out tapes (they exist, I’ve seen a couple) of marathon runners at the starting line. The first few ‘run’ (more like a jog) and the rest must walk, fairly closely packed, to cross the line. *They have numbers*!! We *know* how many there are. We *know* how long it takes X number of people Y abreast to pass the line at a walk. We can extrapolate.

Bottom line, almost certainly 1,000,000 passed the traffic cameras.

tulip, please acknowledge it doesn’t matter where you stand, you have to pass someplace to get there.

Sep 13, 2009 - 10:51 am 64. jon:

Okay, lest I be accused of passing bad info, the liar from Freedomworks said that ABC News gave the estimate of 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 and not 2,000,000. Not that that should matter much, since the report was a lie anyhow. Somewhere in the mix that became two million, but them’s the facts about the lies.

Anyhow, aerial photographs would allow some apples-to-apples comparisons, but not until the number of people attending the Mall event get counted and then removed from the 912 event count. Still, the event yesterday wasn’t on the Mall, people in grassy areas tend to spread out more than those on sidewalks, and I’m guessing the number estimates are going to be fluctuating wildly over the next few days.

Here’s what I know: lots of people showed up. What I don’t know is what solutions they have to offer to the problems with the budget, healthcare, energy, or much of anything else. It really looked like a hissy fit on a grand scale, but the attention is being put on how grand a scale it was rather than the fact that it was little more than a semi-organized gathering for fans of placards and camp chairs. If the opposition had shown up, all the kids could have had a soccer match and the parents could have provided Capri Sun and orange slices and complained about the officiating. About as much would have been accomplished.

Sep 13, 2009 - 11:08 am 65. College Know-It-All Hippy:

I got a better idea. Count the amount of garbage left behind. There wasn’t any, you losers! There’s wasn’t anybody there, because there wasn’t any garbage left behind.

Losers!

Sep 13, 2009 - 11:18 am 66. tulip:

Oh my gosh, geometry? Well, I never. Charlie’s methodology is multiplying the number of people per square meter by the number of square meters. His calculation assumes that there are 125 hectares, because he assumes that the people were on the National Mall. They were not on the National Mall, they were on Pennsylvania Avenue, a significantly shorter and narrower space. (Look at a map if you don’t believe me.)

Likewise, the pictures he shows are of the events that took place on the National Mall, not on Pennsylvania Avenue. So, even if the density of those events was the same, those events were much larger because they occupied a much larger space. I was actually at yesterday’s event and at the Inauguration, and I worked at the Federal Courthouse (at 3rd and Penn) during the Million Man March and I can tell you that yesterday’s event did not compare.

Likewise, I have run in the National Race for the Cure several times. That race usually has 45,000 participants and goes down Constitution Avenue and comes back up Pennsylvania Avenue (and, yes, I had to jog/walk to cross the starting line). The size of that crowd does compare to yesterday’s event. Yesterday’s crowd may have been a little bigger, but certainly not 10 times bigger, much less 40 times bigger, as the 2 million number would require.

But, hey, feel free to keep condescending to me.

Sep 13, 2009 - 11:44 am 67. Bethny:

Many of y’all keep mentioning the “mall” not being packed. It wasn’t, because we weren’t allowed to utilize the mall. I’m sure some spillover was there, but the crowd extended up Pennsylvania Avenue from the Capitol all the way back to the Washington Monument, a distance of about a mile. I know — I was there.

Sep 13, 2009 - 12:13 pm 68. mph:

Took a look at this photo: http://twitpic.com/hhk5f

I don’t know if this was taken at the peak — but 100K people would be pushing it, to say the least.

I lived in DC for 5 years — I know Capital Hill like the back of my hand. I’ve seen enough protests and July 4th fireworks celebrations (where the entire mall, front and back of the Washington Monument is full — which isn’t even two million people), to know that many folks are opting for wishful thinking on the crowd sizes.

I personally wish the tea partiers well — and despite the significant percentage of freaks attempting to subvert the movement to their own means, a lot of people are simply fed up with the federal government’s overreach — and some peaceful venting can be healthy.

I wouldn’t have minded being there — and would have driven down to check it out first hand if I hadn’t so much work to catch up on this weekend — I was planning to meet up with Tuscon, AZ tea party organizer, Robert Mayer (publius pundit) — who I can attest is not a Ron Paul moonbat or paleocon freak show in any way shape or form.

Sep 13, 2009 - 12:48 pm 69. Bethny:

Mph, unless you were there, you can’t say. You have no idea the size and scope of this thing. There were probably 100,000 people just on thw WEST LAWN, never mind the gobs of people that stretched out beyond and up Pennsylvania Avenue. If you really “know Capitol Hill like the back of your hand,” then you’re either being disingenuous or intellectually obtuse. I was there and saw how huge this thing was. I think MY attendance trumps YOUR “knowledge of DC” any day. ;)

Sep 13, 2009 - 12:52 pm 70. russ in north carolina:

I was there in DC along with two busloads of Western NC Patriots who paid their own way (about $300 per couple for bus, food and lodging overnight). The numbers of people are hard to get because so many came spontaneously from VA and NY and PA and MD. And they came and went all day. We showed up at Pennsylvania and 6th Street (I think…only been to DC once before) at 7 am and the crowds were few but growing, and they grew all through the day and the Patriots were widely dispersed. I walked all over trying to find food and a toilet. Everywhere I went there were Patriots, including many doing sightseeing (as did I). As for those who deride this as a big long hissy fit: Of course there are solutions to legitimate problems, and everyone I talked to yesterday understood the need for Tort Reform and Portability and actually Owning Your Own Health Insurance (break the bond between Employment and Insurance). But yesterday was not about ObamaCare. The theme was easy to read: the federal government is spending not just our money but our children’s money…and even our grandchildren’s money and we foresee a European-style future for them, living life without a future as opportunity and prosperity are crushed with debt, unemployment, inflation and oppressive taxation of every kind and at every level. We of the Tea Parties have no power but that of the vote, and ACORN and the upcoming Census both directly threaten our ability to make our vote worth anything through vote fraud, registration fraud and gerrymandered “safe” (from Voters) congressional districts. It’s not Republican or Democrat. It’s not Obama vs Palin. It’s either we pass to the next generation an America of wealth, greatness and prosperity or we hand off to them a shriveled, hollowed out nation, on it’s knees and at the mercy of Mideast oil sheiks, Muslim theocracies and vulture-like Communists both large (China), small (Venezuela) and in-between (Russia) which circle above us patiently to see if the self-inflicted wounds are fatal.

Sep 13, 2009 - 1:07 pm 71. Jayjay:

I was there so let me speculate. First, anyone who suggests that photos of the event are not authentic because the flags were flying at half-mast is wrong. I remember looking up at the flags surrounding the mall and wondering if they kept them at half-mast throughout the weekend for 9/11. They were at half-mast during the March and throughout the day.

My best guess comes from the fact that I was at the first Bush Inaugural in 2001. I estimate that the Tea Party crowd was about 25% to 33% smaller than in January 2001. I have not been able to find any stats on the estimated attendance of that event. However, there is some info on the 2nd Bush Inaugural that puts the numbers at 350,000. If we consider that the First Inaugural was better attended than the Third, let’s say about 800,000 to 1 million were at the 2001 Inaugural.

So, according to my speculative math, the most conservative estimate for yesterday’s attendance would be 1/3 of 800,000 or about 250,000. I would say that low triple figures is about the proper number. Probably 150,000 to possibly 450,000. 1 million may be possible, but 2 million seems overly optimistic.

It still was a great event and a great turnout nevertheless.

Sep 13, 2009 - 2:01 pm 72. Bethny:

Russ, i don’t generally disagree with you, but I ALSO saw a tremendous amount of anger (mine included) towards the governmental power grab and their unwillingness to listen to the PEOPLE anymore. They have gotten so big for their britches that they believe they can do anything they wish without repercussion or answering to anybody.

Since when did we the citizenry become the servant? Since when do WE work for THEM? They keep imbedding themselves into our lives, our lifestyles, creating class warfare which says you’re evil if you succeed and you’re a victim if you do not. They are fostering this belief of entitlement! WE didn’t do that, THEY did. They feel they are so omnipotent as to tell us that we MUST give to others in order to make their lives “fair,” all the while rewarding the losers and no-good sloughs of this nation and punishing the hardworking Americans — the very backbone of this country.

We are not ignorant to what they’re doing… it just took this egotistical president and his egotistical democrat lackeys in Congress to start pulling these Chicago thug ghetto tactics on REAL America — of stealing from the haves to give to the DO-nots and WILL-nots — for us to stand up and say, “NOT ONE MORE DAY!”

Sep 13, 2009 - 2:03 pm 73. Charlie (Colorado):

Guys, the nice part about doing this by explaining the methodology — instead of using the legacy media’s approach of quoting an unnamed source — is that you can see what I’m basing it on.

Tulip, I won’t “acknowledge the fact” that it wasn’t on the Mall because it’s not true. There are any number of photographs around from the rather packed east end of the Mall, over by the Grant Memorial. What I don’t know is how far down the mall it went.

I’ve got a piece in to PJM with several different methodologies. I don’t want to do a lot of spoilers, but I got the Parks Service’s methodology, and 60K-70K is about 1/4th what the smallest number you could get from them would be.

On the Penn Ave side, that chunk of Penn Ave is about 1.1 miles long, we know it to have been pretty tightly packed (there are a number of those photos) and there’s good data that people passed by the Freedom Park end for more than 3 hours. Filling up that chunk of Penns Ave once would take about 100,000 people. Filling it for 3 hours, marching, rather more.

Sep 13, 2009 - 3:35 pm 74. Read1984Now:

As an attendee at yesterday’s event, I would say that close to 1 million people would be a fair tally. It was an incredibly moving day, and a good reminder that America is still populated with many people who have not forgotten this nation’s constitution.

With regard to #64 College-Know-It-All-Hippy’s remark about there not being garbage left behind, I saw a remarkably well-behaved, extremely polite, clean, neat group of protestors. We did what well-mannered people do: we bagged up all of our trash and took it with us. I hauled my plastic bags of trash home with me via Amtrak. Why would anyone expect people who love their country to leave trash behind at their feet?

Sep 13, 2009 - 4:14 pm 75. Sally:

I sure hope we’ll get some good Hair of the Dog on the complete lack of discussion about this on the Sunday morning chat shows..I’ll buy you a drink Steve if you do it :) Maybe even a Trifecta?!!!

Sep 13, 2009 - 4:21 pm 76. jon:

#73: “I hauled my plastic bags of trash home with me via Amtrak.”

Enabler of socialism! Unless, of course, you paid an unsubsidized fare and placed the trash in your private landfill.

I don’t want to pick on you, specifically, however. I just have to ask just what actions were proposed. Did any of the speeches promote any actual, tangible ideas or was this just about a bunch of affirmation addicts being affirmed and patted on the head? Was there an agenda? Is it actually a good thing not to have one? Being a grass roots, non-partisan, people’s movement sounds like a good thing, but what is your goal? Being anti-government sounds good, but what parts of government are you for, in what amount, and to what end? Maybe I’m being picky or obtuse, but if you want the government back in the hands of the people, what the hell do you people want to do with it? And no, not being Barack Obama isn’t the same as a political platform. “Freedom” isn’t a political platform. “The Constitution” isn’t even a political platform.

You people have nothing specific to offer but a list of grievances too vague to act upon, nothing to add to the political dialogue, and no governing philosophy other than a desire to cut the income tax while borrowing money from our future (since you’re too chicken to actually cut anything.) If you were against big government, you picked as late a time as any to notice that government has been growing all our lives. If you were so against deficits, why haven’t you come up with a single balanced budget proposal? If you don’t want government medical care, burn you Medicare cards or something. Really, it looks like a big hissy fit over the fact that someone else got a turn and now you’re horribly bothered that more minorities (I’m sure that’s what Bethny was referring to with her “ghetto” comment) might actually get medical care.

Sep 13, 2009 - 4:49 pm 77. pack:

I was there and walked through and around the crowd. My guessstimate is at least 500,000, an astonishing number. Thousands of homemade signs. Many were very clever as some bloggers have reported. The big question now is; What next? How to increase momentum?

Sep 13, 2009 - 5:06 pm 78. Rose:

Jon,

Glad to see that you aren’t picking on anyone when you suggest they are racist. ;-)

What was proposed yesterday? What’s proposed at a typical political party’s convention? What “new” ideas are ever suggested AT such events?

Events like yesterday – and the Republican and Democratic party conventions – aren’t designed to create the agenda. That work is done outside the event – and, to answer your question, is already creating some new political involvement at the city/county level.

I don’t know anyone who is in it to deny minority people health care. I do know a bunch of people concerned about the welfare of underaged teenage girls from South America though – if Acorn has anything to do with them that is.

And, if you wondered what Bethany meant, why don’t you ask her?

Sep 13, 2009 - 6:21 pm 79. Margo:

Just hung up the phone from my neighbors who all went. She told me that there were people on the side streets. All streets, for as far as the eye could see. She said they were coming from every direction, and she could not believe her eyes. They talked to a cop who said that he had worked over 20 years there and had NEVER saw anything like it, that it was the biggest ever. Wow. Not makin’ this up.

Sep 13, 2009 - 6:42 pm 80. Tom the Redhunter:

Me again.

A few final thoughts

1) No way anywhere near a million people could have even made it downtown. Knowing WDC it’s very hard to drive downtown and park, even on the weekend. The Metrorail and metrobuses couldn’t bring in that many. I saw a few dozen tour buses and it would have taken tens of thousands of buses.

2) Jon asks “Did any of the speeches promote any actual, tangible ideas or was this just about a bunch of affirmation addicts being affirmed and patted on the head?”

Pretty good questions, actually. If the only thing that happens is that the participants go home and yell at their TV then nothing will have been accomplished.

The purpose of rallies is to motivate the participants to do something after the rally. This is an important concept to grasp.

So to change things people need to find an issue or candidate and campaign or work for it or him. This is the only real way to effect change

Sep 13, 2009 - 6:53 pm 81. Pofarmer:

What was proposed yesterday? What’s proposed at a typical political party’s convention? What “new” ideas are ever suggested AT such events?

It ain’t about new ideas, it’s about getting back to old Ideas.

Sep 13, 2009 - 7:03 pm 82. jon:

I’m sorry if I taint anyone by the words of that racist Bethny and her nonsense about “these Chicago thug ghetto tactics on REAL America”, but it seems as if calling a racist dirtbag a racist dirtbag was in order here. Or maybe I read her comment incorrectly. Please inform me how, and I promise to give your apologies for her racism the fair judgment they deserve.

Rose, what ideas are being proposed in the back rooms? What is the agenda other than a big freak out? At least the Republican and Democratic conventions have agendas and platforms and proposals and ideas. The notion that the Tea Party is affecting political involvement at the city and county levels is strange, but I guess I just haven’t been paying attention ever since I didn’t upgrade to satellite tinfoil.

But really, there is a drive to deny minorities healthcare. Just look at Bethny’s statement regarding “these Chicago thug ghetto tactics on REAL America — of stealing from the haves to give to the DO-nots and WILL-nots —” and tell me that the ghetto reference is mostly about white people. The nonsense about illegal aliens receiving healthcare is good evidence of this as well: for some people, it’s better that millions still don’t get it than to take simple steps (that are in the bill) to prevent illegal aliens from obtaining services. There are new lies against public healthcare coming every day, and most of them are focusing on those who are alleged to not deserve it. It may not be a racist freakout, but it walks, talks, and acts like one.

Sep 13, 2009 - 7:10 pm 83. Rose:

Wow, all that venom just because I suggested you ASK Bethany what she meant by what she said.

By all means label anyone who disagrees with you a racist. It’s not what I would call civil discourse, but you do have the right to do so.

Sep 13, 2009 - 7:21 pm 84. Pofarmer:

But really, there is a drive to deny minorities healthcare.

What breed of stupidity is this?

There’s not any drive to deny anybody anything.

Why don’t they have it now?

Why can’t the get it?

Why am I expected to supply it?

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:14 pm 85. jon:

I don’t have to ask Bethny what she meant, her words were clear enough. Her talk of ghettos and her blaming the poor for being poor isn’t the talk of someone who engages in civil discourse.

I agree with much of what is being said. Government is too big. It does intrude. But I don’t think it punishes success when it creates and maintains so much of what makes success possible: education, loans, financial stability, and the best market for products in the world. Much of that is the free market’s work, but take away government and it all can crumble and turn into the worst of robber barons and monopolies and all sorts of things that make the divides between rich and poor larger and make it even harder to become successful. So no, I don’t label anyone who disagrees with me (or with Obama, with whom I’m not in lock step) a racist. However, the Birthers and irrational nutcases among the Tea Party crowd have a contingent of racists. And I’d say that Bethny has shown her colors. And Bethny isn’t alone.

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:15 pm 86. DTOM Snake:

I was there. They did not secure a permit for the mall area and the park police had barricades up. People were spilled out on the sides to the Capitol. I have not seen a good photo but this footage is good and was early in the AM. The crowd walked down to the Capitol in the distance.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sjvc6baor8
Then crowd grew A LOT more in the afternoon. I am sure many folks were late due to very limited Metro (no extra cars were added to accommodate the crowd)

One more thing, I did not see one racist sign, t-shirt or word. In fact, at least 4 of the speakers were black. I’m sure I speak for everyone there that I would be THRILLED to have seen tons of minorities at the rally with us.

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:43 pm 87. mad bikini blogger:

jon,

OH COME ON!! you know that the world of Chicago politics is run by thugs that employ thug tactics… I mean, read the news today… Blago’s assistant and key witness died of an “Aspirin Overdose”?? can anyone really do that?? raise your hand out there if you think he was whacked! (mine’s up)

I’m sure Bethany’s thug comment had no racial entendre… there’s all colors in the Chicago ghetto of politics.

The things being discussed at these tea parties are how we get back to constitutional government. We have a bunch of ninny sissy lackies who vote with their feelings rather than what the constitution of the United States tells them to do. We the people have elected a bunch who use the wrong guidepost.
Things that I personally have discussed with people are simple but will probably never get done, like repealing the 17th amendment.

I think russ said it best and most eloquently. comment #69. very nicely said russ.

Sep 13, 2009 - 8:51 pm 88. Rob:

It is clear that Jon and his companions are determined to be intellectually dishonest about the day’s events and those that are opposed to the rapid decline of our republic.

A rally in our nation’s capitol is not intended to get people fired up, it is to send a message to our elected officials that they had better listen to what we are telling them. The intent is damage control, until we can speak with our votes. If you choose to ignore the sensible solutions to our nation’s problems offered up, that is your personal failing. We have no need to repeat them to ourselves incessantly as if we need convincing of their validity.

There are countless references to people having to walk in because the streets had to be closed as they were too crowded for street traffic and the metro can handle those numbers just fine, they don’t all get on at once. The march was forced to begin early because too many people had arrived already. To assert that everyone must arrive at the same time and from the same direction by the same methods in order to disprove the numbers is a logical fallacy.

The assumption that only minorities live in the ghetto is evidence of your own bigotry, not someone else’s.

Why do numbers matter? After being ignored while making phone calls ,sending emails and writing letters; after being mocked and scorned at town hall meetings, Americans are determined not to be marginalized. While those on the left strive to portray those in attendance as a meager few, those that believe in the movement strive to ensure that they do not succeed. The focus is placed on the D.C. demonstration because that is where the largest gathering occurred, but there were countless more at rallies close to home for those unable, for whatever reason, to travel to Washington. Those smaller rallies are not even acknowledged, never mind the many more that could not attend either. While I feel that numbers of 2 million and beyond are far too high I believe that numbers below 800k are ridiculous as well.

Government does not create, it consumes.Fairness is a lie. The government makes it harder to succeed. There are nuts in every tree, but when you try to portray every other fruit in the tree in that way because you find a nut, you simply want them all to be nuts.

Sep 13, 2009 - 11:57 pm 89. Bernie:

My family and I were at the rally in Washington and were forced to leave early by the sure force of numbers. We didn’t know it then but we were lucky enough to get inside the Capital Court Yard. We spoke with the security police at noon tine and they told me that at that time they estimated about 1.2 Million and that there were more still coming. By 2pm one of the speakers said that they were backed up so far they blocked off the freeway and shutdown that part of DC.
Any news paper, station, etc. where you get your news that plays this down, when it was one of DC largest demonstrations of all times, probably didn’t tell you 2 months ago about Vanjones and all the other radicals the president has placed as czars/advisors. They are the same media that will show the signs that were distasteful, but were way less than 1% of the thousands signs being held that day. Please join me and my family in writing letters to these media outlets telling them why you are canceling their news papers and stop watching their stations.
That’s real power, which is why journalism is dead and the ratings of these biased news organizations are sinking fast!
Note: The healthcare (HC) debate shouldn’t focus just on what we do not like about the democratic views/versions, but have answers for the real problems; high cost of premiums and preexisting conditions. The high cost of premiums has some real easy fixes and should be able to be written in a few pages not 1100; (1) do not allow any taxing of health care. I live in NY and our State Government says there looking for ways to lower HC, but taxes it 20%, that cost just gets handed down to the consumer, it always does. (2) Real tort reform, the money these doctors spend in malpractice insurance is ridicules’, sure they need to be able to be sued for wrong doing, but there needs to be caps and away to stop the frivolous law suits (My understanding is that Doctors win 90% of the time). (3) Create real competition, by allowing us to by a plan that fits our needs as consumers across state line. That’s access to more the 1300 HC insurance companies, that’s real competition. The government option is not competition; they’re not going to pay the taxes, they’re going to be run on taxes. They don’t have to show a profit, and the Presidents idea that you’re going to run a HC system with the savings of corruption from another government HC system-Medicaid is ridiculous.
That is the whole problem with Washington it is corrupt and needs term limits to stop the special interest groups from gaining close relationships with our politicians on either side.

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:16 am 90. Rose:

Jon:

“I don’t have to ask what Bethany meant ….”

Interesting response – given that ASKING her what she meant only costs you some key strokes and the few seconds it takes to type them.

What should I ASSUME about your use of the words “you people”? Or what you mean when you say that anyone who talks about “have’s” is using code words for denying health care from minorities? Do you really think ONLY minorities are poor and no minorities have succeeded in this country and are “have’s”?

What could we ASSUME about you for THOSE comments?

And as for the fringe elements? Does Code Pink sound familiar? Or the eco-terrorists who torch whole subdivisions and recently toppled two radio towers? Or the thugs who stood outside a Philadelphia voting booth with billy clubs harrassing voters – and the Attorney General dropped a case he had already won against and who is stonewalling an investigation into his dropping of the case?

Could THAT have been an example of what Bethany was talking about? Bethany what were you talking about earlier? (See Jon – a few dozen keystrokes and seconds.)

Oh, what the hell – what did you mean when you said “you people”, etc.?

Sep 14, 2009 - 2:35 am 91. jon:

I guess the “ghetto” comment could have been a reference to Jews, so I’m sorry to have jumped to a conclusion about the nature of Bethny (that’s how she spells it, you people) as a racist when I should have asked her if she was a racist or if she was just anti-Jewish. Of course, I doubt I’d trust her answer.

And Rose, I don’t need to discuss demographics with you to acknowledge that yes, indeedy there are minorities who have succeeded in this country. But maybe you need to assess demographic information to see that minorities are more likely to grow up poor, which is the easiest indicator of a likelihood that an individual will remain poor throughout their life. There are far more poor whites in this country than blacks, but the percentage of blacks who are poor is higher than the percentage of whites. Similar statistics exist for hispanic people. So yes, keeping healthcare from those who can’t afford it disproportionately affects minorities. Opponents of healthcare can argue that this is okay since healthcare shouldn’t be nationalized any further, but they shouldn’t put forth sideshow notions about illegals unless they really want it to be about race.

Sep 14, 2009 - 8:11 am 92. Stand Like a Rock » Blog Archive » 9/12 was a transformative event:

[...] [...]

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:30 am 93. Liberty Dog Larry:

For the calculations, you have to include the packed side streets, the wings, and under the trees. In all directions there were people as far as one could see. Given the experience of the Capitol Police in working demonstrations, I would have to accept their official estimate if released. And for the record, I have NEVER before seen such an orderly crowd, or a cleaner crowd. I have seen church-goers departing their services who were rowdier than this. You would be hard pressed to find litter anywhere. This was a huge group of American citizens who took their repectful ownership of the Capitol seriously; they want the Capitol cleaned out, cleaned up, and the Constitution restored to its rightful place in our republic.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:32 am 94. WTFCI:

This phot at NiceDeb leads to me to change my prior estimate.
http://is.gd/3gkmA

I had not included the area in between the Capitol and the reflecting pool. I previously as excluding that area. Also, as you see in the photo there are still sidewalk to sidewalk people arriving on Pennsylvania Ave.

Using the Obama inaugeral as the baseline of 2 million, I’d say it looks like this event drew somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000.

Sep 14, 2009 - 9:35 am 95. myth buster:

The reference to ghettos has nothing to do with the people who live there, except that they tolerate such thuggery in their midst. What it does have to do with is poverty pimps trying to take advantage of people’s desperation. That may work in the inner city, but the rest of America is smart enough not to fall for it, if for no other reason than we see the results.

Sep 14, 2009 - 10:03 am 96. Bob Munck:

Charles Martin: “…the National Mall alone is about 125 hectares, 1.25 million square meters.”

I’m curious where he got that figure. It has to include the entire Mall, from the Capitol all the way to the Potomac. As can be seen from the pictures, there’s plenty of empty space between the back of the crowd and the Washington Monument, and that’s only half the length of the Mall. In fact, it appears that the crowd didn’t even reach across 3rd St., which would mean that they didn’t even get TO the Mall proper. Several commenters above have verified that.

Bad math, bad intelligence work.

Freedomworks has revised their figure to 30,000. They were the major organization putting on the event. Would Dick Armey lie to you?

Sep 14, 2009 - 11:25 am 97. elchip:

Malkin’s picture shows people packed along Pennsylvania Avenue from 14th street to the Capitol — a 1.1 mile route, according to Google maps. Assume there’s 150 feet of walking space horizontally along the route, and that’s 5280 * 1.1 * 150 = 871,200 square feet, or 81,000 square meters. Using your figure of 1.8 people per square meter, that’s roughly 150,000 people.

Sep 14, 2009 - 12:22 pm 98. Bob Roberts:

Some pretty wild claims flying from both sides. If it helps anyone’s calculations, you can see from the pic from the capitol steps that the lawn area from the stage to the first wall was very loosely packed by design. It was tough to get in there. We only got there through a hole in the fence. After that, first wall and around the circular pool was Dave-Matthews-Concert-packed! Many areas were impassable. Under the trees on the fringes match your density estimate I would say. But hey… don’t forget the statues. I saw 25 people watching from one.

Sep 14, 2009 - 3:27 pm 99. Jamie:

So it seems that jon has ceded the argument and is forced to fall back on the last refuge of the progressive: ad hominem-cum-cries of “racism!!” INTENDED to stifle debate.

jon, go visit Protein Wisdom re: intentionalism; what you think any other speaker or writer means is irrelevant to what they actually mean. If a speaker or writer expresses him- or herself inadequately to get his or her meaning across, the next step can correctly be either to seek clarification from the speaker/writer or to criticize that person’s ambiguity. It’s not by any logical construction to assign your own meaning to what he or she said and to declare that meaning the actual one.

Sep 15, 2009 - 2:45 am 100. sohio:

I attended the Women’s Health March in 2004 (also not covered by the mainstream media), and we FILLED the Mall, side to side, from the Capitol building all the way back to the Lincoln Memorial. At the time, we heard estimates of 1.1 million. So if this group didn’t fill that entire space, they’re lying about how many attended…or they’re not doing the math right. Or both.

If anyone parked in buses along the street in order to get to this teabag “grass roots” event (and I use that term loosely), there’s no WAY they came close to a million people. The 1.1 million of us who marched in support of women’s right/choice had to park in buses at JKF Stadium and Metro it to the event becausae of the crowd size (you know, government-subsidized public transit on a government-supported public park patrolled by government employee Park Police?).

Admit it, teabaggers. Even when you had a good, legimitate opportunity to tell the truth, you just can’t.

Sep 15, 2009 - 10:53 am 101. Jeff Jaworski:

I cant understand why there are no aerial shots ,While I was at freedom Square and at the Capitol I saw Helicopters circling, I thought they were taking pictures, a Light Blue Helicopter and a Police one

Sep 15, 2009 - 6:10 pm 102. Rose:

Sohio, thank you for demonstrating the coarsening of civil discourse that President Obama was talking about the other day.

Your insistence on using and reusing that nasty phrase – rather than being “cute” as you were so clearly going for – invalidated you completely as a credible source.

Sep 15, 2009 - 9:36 pm 103. Andy:

I must say I’m elated that there are that many people that are as fed up as I am. Thank God. What is most important is that all these people show up on election day 2010. Something also needs to be done about the state run media in this country! It’s rediculous. Half of America only knows half of what’s going on.

Sep 16, 2009 - 1:27 pm

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