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Farewell, Dolly

Posted By Brendan Loy On July 24, 2008 @ 2:27 pm In Uncategorized | 3 Comments

The National Hurricane Center has issued its final advisory [1] on Tropical Depression Dolly. Thus, for the first time since Bertha formed on July 3 [2] — exactly three weeks ago — there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.

From the meaningless-statistics department: three weeks of consecutive tropical activity is the longest such stretch since the heart of the 2006 season, when Debby [3], Ernesto [4] and Florence [5] churned up the ocean from August 21 through September 19. To have such a streak in August and September — basically straddling the climatological pea [6]k [6] of hurricane season, September 10 — isn’t terribly unusual. To have it in July is pretty remarkable.

Now, we may be in for a stretch of inactivity, which would be more typical [7] for this time of year. As I mentioned earlier [8], Dr. Jeff Masters wrote [9] this morning that “the four reliable computer models are not predicting development anywhere … in the Atlantic for the next 7 days.”

If that prediction is borne out, I’m sure the National Hurricane Center forecasters will appreciate the breather.

In other news, the NHC has posted a high-resolution satellite movie [10] of Dolly making landfall. It’s really neat.

UPDATE: Welcome, InstaPundit [11] readers! This isn’t really my “Dolly wrap-up” post, though. My wrap-up post is here [8].

UPDATE 2: A rant on “hype.” [12]


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URLs in this post:

[1] final advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al04/al042008.public.018.shtml?

[2] July 3: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al02/al022008.public.001.shtml?

[3] Debby: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20064.asp

[4] Ernesto: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20065.asp

[5] Florence: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20066.asp

[6] climatological pea: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/peakofseason.gif

[7] typical: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

[8] earlier: http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/07/24/parts-of-texas-underwater-but-levees-spared/

[9] wrote: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=998&tstamp=200807

[10] high-resolution satellite movie: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/dolly_imagery.shtml

[11] InstaPundit: http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/archives2/022105.php

[12] A rant on “hype.”: http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/07/25/a-rant-on-hype/

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