Inland portions of Cameron County were…hit hard. “Much of the county is under water including highways and roadways,” the Brownsville Herald…reported this morning. … [R]adar rainfall estimates…show[] a miles-wide swath of land in northern Cameron County where between 20 and 25 inches of rain fell. In a few isolated spots, the estimated total exceeds 25 inches. …

Thankfully, because of a last-minute “right turn” by Dolly, the city of Brownsville (population 139,722) was spared the worst of the storm — in terms of both wind and rain — as was the more populous Hidalgo County, immediately to the west of Cameron and Willacy counties. “It didn’t dump as much as it could have,” said Kevin Pagan, director of emergency operations in McAllen, the largest city in Hidalgo County. “It’s hard to feel lucky, but it could have been worse.”

Widespread flooding along the Rio Grande appears to have been avoided, as the levees held. As the rainfall-total map shows, the river itself received “only” 8 to 12 inches of rain, while the 20+ inches that officials feared instead fell on the more sparsely populated, mostly agricultural regions to the north. “The levees are holding up just fine,” Cameron County emergency coordinator Johnny Cavazos told the AP. “There is no indication right now that they are going to crest.”

This happy eventuality should not be viewed as an indictment of the forecasts that called for the possibility of devastating floods and destructive winds in the more heavily populated areas. The National Hurricane Center’s forecasts of Dolly’s track were in fact excellent, including their emphasis on the possibility of deviations shortly before landfall due to weak steering currents. It was precisely such a deviation that took Dolly northward at the last minute, sparing Brownsville and the Rio Grande Valley a direct hit.

In any event, the forecasted 20+ inches of rain did fall, and the forecasted 90+ mph winds did occur; they just occurred a wee bit to the north. That is entirely in line with the NHC’s numerous reminders in its discussions of Dolly that we shouldn’t focus on the “center line” of the forecast track, but rather the probability “cone,” precisely due to the uncertainty of the storm’s track during its final hours before landfall.

Certainly, no one should use the good fortune of Dolly’s last-minute right-hand turn as an excuse to disregard dire warnings when future storms threaten. Mr. Pagan is right: it could easily have been much worse, and next time, it might be.

I trust that addresses your concern that I was failing to “comment[] on predictions vs. actual events.” I also trust that you now recognize how foolish it would be to further expound your unstated premise that those “catastrophic predictions” were naught but hype.