I was watching a channel about noon the day after Dolly came ashore.

A TV reporter was speaking about the very dangerous surf. Behind him people were on the beach, some wading, and the surf was clearly less than one foot high.”

Well, yeah, the day after the storm everything was nice and calm. I think you missed something in that report, bro.

Tiny, last-minute, utterly unpredictable wobbles and atmospheric circumstances determine which course each storm takes. As a result, it is literally impossible for forecasters to know, for certain, exactly what will happen. Hence the NHC’s never-ending emphasis on, for example, the forecast “cone” as opposed to the center-line track. Again and again, they remind us not to treat their intrinsically inexact forecasts as absolute gospel truth.”

Thank you!

I live in Harlingen, Texas, which got nailed by Dolly and let me tell you that morning before the storm hit I was like everyone else thinking it was gonna go in on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande and maybe batter Brownsville. Instead it shifted north-west and hit just above us. Everyone thought the storm would be over quickly cause it was so fast moving but as it came closer to land it slowed down. When it hit, it practically sat on top of us and just pounded us with wind and rain. I went to bed that morning (I work overnights) thinking one thing and was totally unprepared. Didn’t board my windows or nothing (totally lucked out, none broke). Yeah, some storms get hyped, but that doesn’t mean that they should be ignored.

But we also get lazy. We’ve had lots of close calls in the past and everyone expected that with Dolly. We expect it to go north of us or south of us which is usually the case. No such luck this time.

David Pruett: “I now live in the middle of Kentucky and could tell from here that this hurricane was no where near the level to deserve the hype you were repeating.”

True, this wasn’t a major storm. Also true, this thing powered up very quickly. I’m not sure if anyone expected it to become a category 2. Not exactly a blow-down-your-house kind of storm, no, but I think you missed Loy’s point. The expectations and the results don’t always match. Sometimes the expectations are worse, but sometimes the result outdoes the expectations. Dolly defied expectations and became a bigger problem then expected. Not a Buehla sized problem, but if you only want to hear about something that will create massive destruction and body counts, then folks like you are the reason news organizations overhype to begin with. Loy posted information, not predictions of the apocalypse. If you only want to hear about the big killer storms, cat 4 and up, that’s fine with me. Just browse on towards the next page, change the channel, whatever. Hey, you live in Kentucky after all, not like it matters for you.

I wrote about this on your previous IT blog.

We can argue the “pressures” that led to this change in NHC policy. I would argue (and did) that a below average 2007 season would impact funding levels for various entities and would serve to hurt the case for AGW that is directed at the ignorant. You see, the ignorant vote. Another consideration in the change is the degree to which the plaintiff’s bar has caused unreal hoop jumping (aka ludicrous safety warnings, eg. McDonalds’ coffee is hot) among agencies and businesses. God help NOAA if a few morons die because they took no heed of common sense forecasts that did not include DANGER WILL ROBINSON warnings.

You want to defend the scientific community at-large, and the NHC forecasters in particular, you go right ahead. Your admonition/challenge at the top of this post cuts both ways. I want answers as to why NHC criteria were changed and an acknowledgement that these changes were, of themselves, an engagement of hyperbole by your “sainted” (ever so unbiased) forecasters.

If you consult a dictionary you will find the plural is scenarios.

And that could be wrong too. I’m not an expert.

But people drown everyday, or at least every summer day, in the calmest conditions imaginable. Once a storm has passed and conditions are calm I see no reason to avoid the water. Authorities know how to close beaches when they wish.

Wading can be dangerous beyond the low water line. There may be a pit hidden by the water. A wader can’t see it, steps in, and is suddenly immersed. The bottom is sand and he lacks traction to get out.

I live in South Florida and have been in three hurricanes since 2004, as well as Andrew in 1992, so I know that even a Cat 2 can do tremendous damage, even when you’re prepared. I also know that blogs such as yours are invaluable resources. Please keep it up, and maybe find a more appreciative host.