Well, that was fast: the National Hurricane Center designated Tropical Depression Five at 5:00 PM EDT, and then at 6:00 PM, upgraded it to Tropical Storm Edouard in a special advisory, noting in the discussion:
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO…IT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB…A DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. … EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.
If this rate of intensification continues, Edouard could be stronger than that. But for now, the official forecast falls for the storm’s intensity to max out at 70 mph. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are up for much of the Louisiana and Texas coasts.
I’ll have more to say about this storm in an hour or two. Stay tuned.
UPDATE, 8:37 PM EDT: The most likely scenario for Edouard is that he’ll come ashore near Houston/Galveston on Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm or a low-end Category 1 hurricane, will cause only minimal wind and storm surge damage, and will dump much-needed rain on a drought-stricken area. If that occurs, Edouard actually might do more good than harm!
That, again, is the most likely scenario. However, at the risk of being accused of “hype,” I must point out that other scenarios are also possible. In particular, it’s a little scary to see how rapidly this storm strengthened this evening, and with another 36 hours over very warm Gulf waters, you have to wonder — in light of our extremely limited ability to predict rapid intensification cycles — whether Edouard might have an expected burst of rapid deepening, and become a much stronger storm than currently expected.
Again, I am not predicting that; on the contrary, to be very clear, it probably won’t happen. But it’s impossible to be certain, given our limited forecasting ability. So, residents along the coast should remember that hurricane forecasting is inherently inexact, and they should not just assume that this thing will remain weak. It’s always wise to prepare for a hurricane at least one category above what’s forecasted, just in case, and I think that would be a particularly good idea in this instance. You don’t want to get caught off-guard by a last-minute burst of strengthening (say, overnight Monday night, for example). That’s not hype, that’s just being prudent and prepared.
Anyway, here’s a visible satellite view of Edouard:
Its maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph as of the 8:00 PM EDT advisory, and the NHC now says that Hurricane Watches and Warnings may be necessary later tonight (i.e., at the 11:00 PM advisory).
The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger writes:
I’ll have a full update tonight after the late [computer] model runs. As of now, southeast Texas remains firmly within the storm’s crosshairs, and we cannot rule out Edouard becoming a hurricane before landfall — some might argue that’s more likely than not — on Tuesday.
If you have coastal property now is the time to consider making preparations for a landfalling hurricane.
Here’s the official NHC forecast track, and the current warnings:
This will probably be my last update tonight. I’ll post the latest in the morning. In the mean time, check the National Hurricane Center website for the latest, as well as Eric Berger, the Houston Weather Blog, the Houston Chronicle’s Hurricane Center, and the New Orleans Hurricane Center.
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9 Comments
1. Ubu Roi:We don’t take even tropical storms lightly around here, since Allison dumped 36 inches of rain in 24 hours. In my household, even less than others. We have three vehicles; all three are already topped off, we have extra gas for our generator, and several gallons of water set aside. We’ll do more tomorrow after updates.
Humidity is high, and it’s already raining here. Not directly related to Edouard, but part of the same conditions that spawned it. This isn’t conclusive by itself, but it’s a bad sign that it may be a very wet storm, rather than strong — like Allison, which did most of its damage _after_ dropping below T.S. strength.
Aug 3, 2008 - 6:47 pm 2. Hal:Don’t know if you’re familiar with this site but thought I would pass it on.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15
Aug 3, 2008 - 6:51 pm 3. Houblog » Blog Archive » Time to Break Out the Rubber Ducks (updated):[...] gotten some ten days ago, just in case. But here’s why this storm worries me a bit, per the Weather Nerd: the National Hurricane Center designated Tropical Depression Five at 5:00 PM EDT, and then at [...]
Aug 3, 2008 - 7:10 pm 4. Mark L:I live in SE Houston (Clear Lake area). This is not a storm to run from. Not where my house is. Hide from, yes. You do that at home. Get all the stuff in the yard stashed away, top off the gas tanks, and wait. Already have the hurricane supplies I need.
I may cocoon at home on Tuesday, but I cannot see taking the risk associated with evacuating. Instead, if Edouard continues to Houston, I will call in sick Tuesday. Tell him I have trouble with my eyes — can’t see coming in when the weather is so bad.
Aug 3, 2008 - 7:51 pm 5. 49erDweet:Well said, I thought, and it wasn’t “hype”. Now get some sleep because you might be busy for awhile.
Aug 3, 2008 - 11:50 pm 6. Brendan Loy:Mark, I’m not terribly familiar with Houston’s geography, but assuming you’re reasonably far inland and not in a flood plain, that’s probably a sensible approach. I am certainly not suggesting that everybody should evacuate, or “get the hell out” as I said with Katrina.
Anyway, the good news is, Edouard didn’t strengthen at all overnight — in fact, he weakened a bit, and is only now getting more organized, back to where he was originally — so that significantly alleviates my worry about the possibility of rapid intensification bringing the storm above Cat. 1. That possibility was always small; now, it’s even smaller.
Aug 4, 2008 - 4:07 am 7. Ubu Roi:Around here, we don’t run from a minimal hurricane, unless we’re right on the coast or in a very low area. Or all the TV stations go berserk with hype (”20 feet of water in Clear Lake!”) less than a month after another city floods. What has gotten overlooked in the time since that fiasco is that Rita was not minimal (Cat 5 at one point) and had it not turned east, things might actually have been that bad.
Minimal hurricanes are mildly dangerous, moreso if they drop lots of rain — but I’ve driven to work in the middle of one, in a dinky Chevette (which will date about when it happened, heh).
Aug 4, 2008 - 4:36 am 8. Brendan Loy:Ubu, thanks for the comment. I responded to your thoughts about “minimal” hurricanes in my new post. Long story short, I basically agree with you.
As for Rita, you’re absolutely right, Rita was far from “minimal” — it was one of the 6 most intense hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic basin!! If the conventional wisdom in Texas has evolved to the point where people think Rita was naught but hype, things are far worse than I realized. Rita not only “might,” but definitely would, have been as bad as the hype — maybe worse — if it had not turned east and weakened substantially. And, as I keep pointing out, there’s simply no way to predict, 2 or 3 days in advance, with any precision or confidence, whether such twists and turns will occur. The fear of utter devastation from Rita was completely justified.
As for the evacuation “fiasco,” you’re right that a huge factor was the timing, “less than a month after another city floods.” As I understand it, local officials had an orderly evacuation plan — people in this zone evacuate first, then people in this zone, etc., and people in this and that zone don’t need to evacuate at all — but folks simply didn’t follow the plan because they were so freaked out, post-Katrina. That’s understandable, but it’s the exact opposite of the problem that disaster planners usually face: generally, you can’t get half the people who need to evacuate to leave; with Rita, you had a bunch of people leaving who didn’t need to do so! So, yes, it was a fiasco, but it was a singular one, unlikely to recur ever again. The circumstances were truly freakish. And, although the evacuation ultimately proved more deadly than the storm itself, that’s only clear in hindsight. At the time, there was every reason in the world to fear a calamity from Rita.
Aug 4, 2008 - 6:22 am 9. Ubu Roi:Thanks, Brendan (and for the link too). The problem is, as always, people are people. They’re illogical and short sighted, and their government is often worse. The good news, is that the State of Texas made some improvements in evacuation strategy. The bad news is they made some bad decisions too, and the road net is still, and always will be a problem. Any evacuation order affecting Houston is likely to affect points east. Roads from the area to Houston’s east lead north and slightly west, so that there is a natural convergence with people trying to evacuate the east side of the Houston metro area. I blogged about the problems that caused from the first-person POV back then.
That means the primary evacuation for the core of the city is along four freeways to the north, west, and southwest, and only two of them parallel the old US highway they replaced; the other two were built over the original roads, or were completely new. Worse, there is a bottleneck on the north side where there is not even a tertiary road net, let alone secondary. From Conroe to Huntsville, the four lanes of I-45 are it. I’m a big believer in letting the secondary roads take some of the load, but the government seems to love shoving everyone from one area into a pre-planned and overloaded evacuation route.
I have to run; if I get a chance, I may develop some thoughts and post them later on Houbog.
Aug 4, 2008 - 6:39 am