Alleviating my fear of continuous intensification until landfall, Tropical Storm Edouard stopped strengthening overnight, and in fact weakened a bit in the wee hours of the morning. The 5:00 AM EDT discussion explains that northerly wind shear pushed the storm’s convection well to the south, completely exposing the low-level center of circulation. The barometric pressure increased to 1006 millibars at around 2:00 AM, and “it was dubious as to whether Edouard was still a tropical storm.”
In the hours since then, Edouard has re-organized and re-strengthened somewhat, and the pressure is back down to 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are still listed at 50 mph. But the storm has lost 12 precious hours of time in which it could have been intensifying, and now landfall in Texas is a mere 24 hours away. Also, Edouard’s forward speed has increased. All in all, he’s starting to run out of water.
As a result, it now appears less likely than it did yesterday evening that Edouard will make landfall as a hurricane, and far less likely that he’ll do so as anything more than a low-end Category 1. Nothing can be totally ruled out yet, but I’m feeling much less worried than I did last night. The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger agrees: “last night’s weakening [means] that the chances of anything stronger than a category 1 hurricane are now very, very low.”
That said, some intensification is still expected. Indeed, Hurricane Watches are up along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines, indicating that hurricane conditions are “possible.” And they definitely are. Dr. Jeff Masters, who took time off from a friend’s wedding reception to post an Edouard update, wrote at 2:00 AM EDT:
The shear is forecast to decrease to near zero by Monday night, and sea surface temperatures will increase by about 0.5°C. The depth of the warm waters get shallower, with the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential decreasing to about 20 kJ/cm^2 Monday night. Taken together, these factors should allow Edouard to intensify, although it may take 24 hours or so for the storm to organize an eyewall, as occurred with Dolly. The latest 00Z (8pm EDT) GFDL and SHIPS intensity models both bring Edouard to a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane by landfall, with the strongest winds occurring near the Texas/Louisiana border. The 00Z HWRF model, though, predicts that Edouard will not get its act together at all, and will be a tropical depression at landfall. The latest GFS model is also not very enthusiastic about Edouard.
My best guess is that Edouard will be a tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds when it comes ashore Tuesday morning. It would be a big surprise if the storm made it to Category 2 strength, since it has a limited time before it comes ashore, and is so poorly organized at present. Heavy rain is the main damage threat from Edouard.
UPDATE: Berger looks at what Houston can expect:
Assuming that the storm continues moving westward at about 9 mph — and that’s truly an assumption — Galveston should begin feeling tropical storm force winds at about 4 a.m. tomorrow, and if the storm becomes a hurricane, higher winds would come shortly thereafter.
Houston would feel the winds a wee bit later.
There could be some rainfall today not associated with Edouard, but otherwise it will be hot. Computer models such as the GFDL suggest the tropical storm’s rain won’t get here until at least shortly after midnight.
HOW MUCH WILL IT RAIN?
One could lose a lot of money betting on tropical storm rain forecasts. The good news for those concerned about inland flooding — which would be just about everyone in Harris County — is that Edouard is presently forecast to accelerate forward once inland.
That means we’ll get some rainfall, and there will definitely be intense downpours. But the rains should keep moving and clear the area by Wednesday morning or afternoon. … If this forecast holds, Edouard will prove a boon to Texas’ drought without causing major flooding damage. However, the computer models often don’t reflect isolated rainfall totals, which in some areas could reach up to 8 inches. So let us hope the forecast holds, keeping in mind that tropical storms often do cause major damage in Houston.
For more on Houston’s effects you can check out the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service’s multimedia briefing.
The bottom line is that southeast Texas will begin tangling with the tropics during the next 24 hours, and it’s possible something as strong as a category 1 hurricane could come ashore. It’s best to prepare today for such an eventuality.
I’ll post another update on Edouard this afternoon. Berger, meanwhile, will be updating throughout the day.
P.S. In a comment on my previous post, Ubu Roi of Houblog writes:
Around here, we don’t run from a minimal hurricane, unless we’re right on the coast or in a very low area. … Minimal hurricanes are mildly dangerous, moreso if they drop lots of rain — but I’ve driven to work in the middle of one, in a dinky Chevette (which will date about when it happened, heh).
I generally agree with those sentiments. Even “minimal” hurricanes can do significant damage, as South Florida learned during Katrina’s initial landfall in 2005, but generally, if you live in a well-constructed home, not immediately on the coastline, and not in a flood plain, there’s no reason to greatly fear such a storm. So, to the extent that anyone reads my blogging as an attempt to hype Category 1 hurricanes into monster storms, they’re misreading me.
The most dangerous thing about “minimal” hurricanes, particularly when they’re over bathtub-like water in places such as the Gulf of Mexico, is that they can quickly get stronger. That is the reason I might sometimes sound “alarmist” in talking about Category 1 hurricanes: not because I’m under the misapprehension that 75 mph winds and 4-5 foot storm surges are going to cause devastating damage along wide swaths of land, but because I’m all too aware that rapid intensification can catch even forecasters off guard — never mind the general public — and if a “minimal” hurricane intensifies into a monster at the very last minute, there’s little you can do except pray. Hence the mantra: be prepared for the worst!
A rapid-intensification scenario appears mercifully unlikely in this instance, but that’s where I’m coming from when I get worried about this type of storm.
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13 Comments
1. Jack Okie:Brendan,
Congrats on your gig at PJM. Your posts are always interesting and informative. I hope there’s not much to post about this year, though.
Some time ago, when I ran across your poignant elegy for your friend, it was clear you are an exceptional writer (and person).
Best wishes,
Jack
Aug 4, 2008 - 6:31 am 2. ubu:Eric Berger just lost my respect, which given his employer, was already not terribly high. He’s calling for all non-emergency vehicles to be off the roads and businesses to close — for what will probably be a high-end tropical storm. That’s just absurd, and probably nothing but breathless “you’ve got to stay tuned right here!” hype of the sort that fed the Rita evacuation.
Mayor Bill White has already stated that the city will remain open for business.
“It is important to note that the City is open for business as usual both today and tomorrow. All employees are expected to remain at their jobs today and report to work as usual tomorrow.
We will continue to monitor conditions throughout the day and night and expect to have a further update shortly after 4:30 p.m. today.”
Aug 4, 2008 - 11:21 am 3. Brendan Loy:I’m not sure I agree with either Berger’s approach or with Mayor White’s approach. Don’t these sorts of questions — whether non-emergency vehicles should be on the road, whether businesses should close, etc. — lend themselves to a “wait and see” approach? Obviously, evacuations are a different story; if you’re going to evacuate, you have to do it well in advance. But why would Mayor White say now that “[a]ll employees are expected to … report to work as usual tomorrow,” when, for all he knows, maybe Edouard will strengthen overnight to where, at 6:00 AM, that will begin to appear like a bad idea? Conversely, why is Berger telling people to stay off the roads tomorrow when, by morning’s light, it may be clear that that’s not necessary? I think the best advice would be to be sufficiently stocked up to where you don’t need to leave your house tomorrow — just in case — but delay any decision on whether to go out until the last possible moment, when there will be more information. Similarly, why shouldn’t government and business entities make the decision to stay open or close early in the morning, just as school superintendents, business owners, etc. in the Northeast generally wait until morning before deciding whether to close during a snowstorm? Just tell people to dig up their battery-operated radios and stay tuned for the latest information.
Admittedly, “wait and see” has its limits. I’m reminded of Bertha, which hit Bermuda and strengthened at the last minute, causing island officials to close the Bermuda Causeway in the afternoon, after promising all day they’d leave it open. This left some folks, who went to work on the basis of a “business as usual” attitude similar to Mayor White’s, stranded in their cars on the wrong side of the Causeway — away from their children, etc. — as they tried to get home that evening. All in all, it would have been better to close the damn Causeway as a precaution all long; if a 5 or 10 mph wind increase made the difference, then I say they were cutting it too close.
In this case, though, I don’t see why these sorts of decisions need to be made quite yet. And I don’t think Berger’s approach is so outside the realm of reasonableness that it should cause a loss of respect for him. He’s urging people to err on the side of caution, which, in hindsight, sometimes looks wise (see: Bertha in Bermuda) and sometimes looks foolish. Based on presently available information, I think reasonable people can disagree on whether he’s taking caution too far in this instance.
Aug 4, 2008 - 11:32 am 4. Brendan Loy:P.S. I guess an implicit aspect of what I’m saying is, I don’t see the enormous harm in telling people to stay off the roads, etc. It’s different from evacuation, which carries with it inherent risks, as Houston residents know well. But simply suggesting that people take a “hurricane day” is not exactly going to cause death and destruction. And I’m not sure people should feel obligated to drive to work in even sustained 65 mph winds. Yeah, so the economy will slow down for a day because people missed work — I imagine it will recover. I guess it just seems to me like “err on the side of caution” isn’t such a terrible approach.
But I stand by what I said about “wait and see.” If Edouard never gets any stronger than it is now, then obviously, there’s no need to hunker down, stay off the roads, etc.
Aug 4, 2008 - 11:42 am 5. Brendan Loy:I posed your criticism to Berger, and asked for his response. He wrote: “People aren’t supposed to drive in winds that exceed 40 mph. As presently forecast, winds will be above 40 mph tomorrow for most of the Houston area. I’m simply reminding people that they ought not drive in tropical storm-force winds.” He subsequently repeated, in another comment, “Winds, especially south of I-10, are presently forecast to exceed 40 mph. Emergency officials say it’s unsafe to drive in winds higher than 40 mph.”
So that’s his rationale. Sounds like you have a different opinion than those unnamed “emergency officials” re: what’s safe to drive in, so I think that’s the crux of your disagreement with Berger here.
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:14 pm 6. Barkley:You youngsters don’t remember TS Claudette in 1979. It stalled, just off the coast, between Houston and Galveston and dumped 42 inches of rain in 24 hours, causing very significant flooding in the Dickinson, Friendswood, League City, and Alvin area.
Its 24 hour rainfall total remains a record for the continental US.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Claudette_(1979)
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:16 pm 7. Brendan Loy:Ubu, can you give me a link/citation for the quoted comments by Mayor White? I can’t find them anywhere.
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:39 pm 8. Shreela:Hi, first time here; I came from Eric/SciGuy’s blog you commented on.
I’m wondering if Eric’s considering the TIME that they’re thinking Edouard will hit Houston — morning RUSH HOUR.
And I also wonder if Eric’s considering the FLOODING (during morning rush hour), instead of just the wind speeds that have been discussed since ubu’s comment.
Like I commented at Eric’s blog: Remember 288 flash flood?
I’m a little surprised at Mayor White’s thinking, being that he’s an attorney. Maybe he’s trying to make up for his part in the Rita exodus.
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:41 pm 9. Shreela:@ Barkley – I remember that flooding in ‘79. My first apartment flooded between Edgebrook and Shaver. I remember looking out and seeing a Camaro in the parking lot, then later I couldn’t see it at all.
Didn’t some houses in Friendswood and Alvin get more than two feet of water in them? And there’s been a LOT more developments built since then.
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:48 pm 10. ubu:Maybe I’m being unfair to Eric but I can’t see telling people to stay off the roads in conditions no worse than a nasty thunderstorm. Do I like driving through one? No. Do I think it’s safe? Not entirely. Do I think it’s better to take the penalties if I don’t go to work? No. Do I expect him to say, “Hey, no problem, drive in to work tomorrow?” No, because the first idiot to drive his car into a flooded road will sue the Chron. He doesn’t have to go so far the other way though, and that’s why I’m critical of the hype.
I think the problem here is we’re adopting a binary solution: Drive/Don’t Drive. It needs to be a bit more flexible:
1. Drive Normally,
2. Drive with Caution,
3. Don’t Drive Unless Necessary,
4. Absolute Lives-at-Risk Emergency Only,
5. Stay Home Idiot.
Given the timing for the wind and rain increases, for Galveston island, it’s a 2 or 3 there, but inland, in Houston proper, it’s a 2 if you can get in to work before the storm, and that’s based on Eric’s wind/time charts (are they in kts or mph?)
As for emergency officials, their statements are inherently conservative because they have to deal with the failures of judgement. Too many, and they’ll be overwhelmed, and they also risk losing their people trying to rescue persons trapped by weather.
Aug 4, 2008 - 12:56 pm 11. ubu:Brendan, Mayor White’s comments are from an email to city employees. I’ll post it in it’s entirity at Houblog, because there’s a bit of wiggle room in there I didn’t include for brevity. And I am probably being a bit too radical for Galveston; there’s a few hours of “level 4″ there. Sixty mph winds aren’t to be trifled with. Add storm surge and heavy rain… not a good idea.
Within Houston, the real problem is reduced visibility hiding street flooding and minor bayou flooding until too late. And some fool always drives into an underpass on a feeder road.
Aug 4, 2008 - 1:13 pm 12. Tony B:Maybe I’m being unfair to Eric but I can’t see telling people to stay off the roads in conditions no worse than a nasty thunderstorm.
Um, it’s good common sense to stay off the roads in a nasty storm, period.
And Barkley, your Claudette is my Allison. The city of Friendswood had 2 separate flood events in one week when Allison came, left and came back.
Aug 4, 2008 - 1:20 pm 13. Barkley:Yep. Lots of houses were flooded in both Claudette & Allison. Claudette sticks in my memory because my parents’ home had 18 inches of water in it. They were evacuated by boat.
It seems to me that all the discussion about the risk of high winds is largely beside the point. The big risk in the Houston area comes from flooding. People in Houston have drowned after severe thunderstorms (when they attempted to drive through deep water collected in underpasses).
Aug 4, 2008 - 1:45 pm