Dr. Jeff Masters hits the “get the hell out” button:
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday — sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush — and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there’s no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don’t test those Category 3 rated — but untested — levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating — Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.
Okay, he said “heck,” not “hell” (in contrast to my post three years & three days ago, also late on a Friday), but it’s the same button, and he pushed it.
Dr. Masters is a meteorologist, and a thumpin’ good-un, as Hagrid would say. He’s the co-founder of Weather Underground, and one of my chief sources of hurricane information. So, really, you should listen to him more than to me. That said, the only reason I would hesitate to push my “get the hell out” button is because, as I understand it, local officials — having apparently recovered from their epic display of gross incompetence in this regard three years ago — now have a staged evacuation process set up, which contemplates people leaving different areas at different times. If everybody leaves all at once, in contravention of that plan, I imagine there would be some potential for Rita-like evacuation problems.
But, on an individual level, Dr. Masters’s “beat the rush” advice makes a lot of sense. Mandatory evacuations seem quite likely to begin tomorrow. The odds of the forecast changing so drastically overnight that evacuations won’t be necessary tomorrow are, I think, quite low. The evacuation order is very likely coming; it’s a question of when, not if. Accordingly, there’s no apparent individual benefit to staying put an extra 12 or 18 hours. And there’s a distinct downside: you’ll be sitting in traffic a lot longer later. Moreover, in all honesty, if I were a New Orleans resident, I’m really not sure I would trust the local government to make these decisions for me. Like I said, they seem to be more “on the ball,” but…
Anyway, I won’t tell anyone else what to do — but, based on the information presently in front of me, if I, personally, were in New Orleans, I think I would follow Dr. Masters’s advice, and get the hell out tonight.
Having said all that, it bears reiterating — to prevent confusion, in the interest of full disclosure, and as a rebuttal to charges of “hype” or “running amok” — that Gustav may not hit New Orleans at all. It may, in fact, deliver a devastating blow somewhere else entirely. Or it may take a friendlier course to a more sparsely populated coastline, and/or fail to strengthen as much as we expect, and/or weaken enough before landfall that it’s a minor blip in the grand scheme of things. All of these scenarios are possible, and at the moment, virtually indistinguishable in terms of probabilities. As the National Hurricane reminds us in the 5pm EDT discussion:
DUE TO THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…IT IS ONCE AGAIN IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.
The reason for the present focus on New Orleans is not because the storm is uniquely likely to take that particular path, because that city is uniquely vulnerable to catastrophic flooding, and needs a longer evacuation lead time.Given the wide range of track and intensity possibilities, and the inherent uncertainty of hurricane forecasts beyond 24-36 hours or so, it is still far more likely, percentage-wise, that a calamity won’t strike New Orleans than that one will. But alas, that’s no reason not to evacuate, whether today or tomorrow. Forecasting technology is such that a calamitous direct hit is always going to be “unlikely” at the time when prudent evacuation decisions must be made in major cities. But the decisions still must be made.
When I urged people to leave the Big Easy on that Friday night in 2005, I stated, “Katrina probably won’t destroy New Orleans — but it could.” That was true then, and it’s true again now. But, as I said the next day back in ‘05, “If you knew there was a 10 percent chance terrorists were going to set off a nuclear bomb in your city on Monday, would you stick around, or would you evacuate? That’s essentially equivalent to what you’re dealing with here.” I’m not sure what the percentage odds are at the moment, but unless they decrease drastically very soon, they’ll be high enough to merit evacuation.
As I said, I see no particular reason to hope for a sudden forecast change that would come soon enough to prevent an everybody-out order from Mayor Nagin tomorrow (assuming he does his job this time). If you choose not to pre-empt that order by leaving tonight, that’s your call — but certainly, when the order comes, it will be imperative to obey it.
P.S. I apologize for the delay in publishing the various comments this evening. Unfortunately, on this blog, I am required to individually approve each comment, and sometimes I’m away for my computer for a while. I will get everybody’s comments on as quickly as possible, but alas, there will sometimes be significant delays.
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20 Comments
1. thenakedemperor:I live 60 mi. NNW of New Orleans.
On the plus side:
1) the 5 day showed us dead center. And that’s NEVER right, usually about 300 nm off. And
2) I just don’t have that “impending doom” feeling like 3 yrs ago.
Negative side:
1) It’s still forecast too close to take chances if your life depends on it.
So we prepare. At this time, I-10 over the spillway is bumper to bumper. Gas stations have been running out for three days. Yesterday afternoon, a local gun store was totally out of 12 ga. ammo, rain gear, “Police” t-shirts, and was low on 5.56. Today a friend in the city, buying ammo, reported a store full of JP cops buying ammo, AR-15s and spare parts. Wed night the local Wal-Mart was low on canned goods and totally out of bread, milk, and other staples.
Moral of the story: Watch the weather, be prepared EARLY, implement plans EARLY
Aug 29, 2008 - 2:39 pm 2. David:have a staged evacuation process set up, which contemplates people leaving different areas at different times
That’s how it was done for Katrina, too. River Parishes people don’t need NOLA traffic in the way.
A city press conference was supposed to start at 4:30 CDT, but we’re waiting.
Aug 29, 2008 - 2:40 pm 3. Greg:City press conference is on now. I am watching a rerun of Fawlty Towers. I will wait for the 5 PM news recap.
Folks are getting out. Most of the surrounding parishes have pulled one trigger or another with some type evacuation.
I heard a rumor that contraflow will start at 6 PM tomorrow night. Got get that LSU game over first.
I found some C cell batteries but not Ds. Filled up with gas. Station was out except for Regular. I will see if batteries are restocked tomorrow morning.
I live on higher than sea level ground 35 miles north of New Orleans so I am not too concerned about the surge, but I will leave is the AC is going to be out for a while.
Aug 29, 2008 - 2:54 pm 4. David:N.O. city assisted evac starts 8am Saturday. They’ll put people on the buses and trains, then the state takes over. They expect 30000 people and for it to take 24 hours.
Aug 29, 2008 - 2:55 pm 5. doctorj2u:I still think people misunderstand the evacuation from Katrina. It was very successful for people that could afford the cost of doing so. Thw whole time you were demanding a mandatory evacuation for Katrina, local officials were telling people to get out of town. The failure of the Katrina evacuation was in not supplying people with transportation or resources a means to get out of time. I am empressed with the changes so far. I am still leary if the 311 system the system for people to contact the city to let them know they want help getting out of town) will work. I also worry about not supplying a sanctuary of last resort like the Superdome. If the levees breaks and the city floods again, many that stay (and there are ALWAYS some) will die in their homes. For whatever the horror of the Superdome, it SAVED lives. Now thousands more will die. America just won’t have to watch it. Maybe that is the purpose of the new policy.
Aug 29, 2008 - 3:27 pm 6. terri:We here in Gulf Shores AL are watching carefully.
Aug 29, 2008 - 3:30 pm 7. Alan Sullivan:I’m against running amok, but if I lived in New Orleans, I would have prepared my property yesterday, and I would leave this evening.
Living in South Florida, I might have to ride out (or flee) Hanna instead.
Nevertheless, that 15-30′ surge comment from FEMA is a case of running amok, IMO.
Aug 29, 2008 - 3:47 pm 8. sanssoucy:Yeah. Heck. Hurricane comin’. Let’s everybody panic. Cuz Brendan-baby and the rest of the quasi-professional alarmists ain’t gonna take any hit if it all proves to be the merest bullshit.
Aug 29, 2008 - 4:18 pm 9. ZEITGEIST:[...] Time to leave New Orleans. Maybe too early for mandatory evacuation, but not too early to get out on your own if you can. I [...]
Aug 29, 2008 - 4:22 pm 10. Brendan Loy:Sanssoucy, this post is NOT alarmist. I was extremely careful to avoid being alarmist, and to make absolutely clear that these evacuations are merely a necessary precaution, not a prediction of certain doom. I am being completely straightforward about the risks — trying to inform people, not scare them. For instance, I made very clear that this thing probably will not cause a calamity in New Orleans. But action has to be taken now. Residents cannot wait to evacuate until it’s certain that a calamity will occur (or even more than 50% likely), because by that time, it’s already too late.
Frankly, attitudes like yours are ignorant and dangerous. I’d love to hear you take issue with what specific aspect of my post you think is “alarmist.” If you can’t, maybe you should keep your pointless juvenile snark to yourself and let the adults do the talking.
Aug 29, 2008 - 4:24 pm 11. Eric:>as I understand it, local officials — having apparently recovered from their epic display of gross incompetence in this regard three years ago — now have a staged evacuation process set up, which contemplates people leaving different areas at different times.
You hopeless dimwit. The whole south part of the state has been doing a “phased” evacuation for decades. Grand Isle et al leaves in phase one. Then Houma etc, THEN the metro area.
Decade brother decades. Look it up. This is nothing new.
>If everybody leaves all at once, in contravention of that plan, I imagine there would be some potential for Rita-like evacuation problems.
YA THINK? YOU IMAGINE?
And THIS you twit, is why your crowing for the last 3 years that you said people should leave early is so gawd damn annoying to those of us know a little bit about Emergency Management.
Read my lips. YOU WHERE DEAD WRONG.
As you might remember a large hunk of the city evacuates to this town called Houston. What happens if we evacuate the New Orleans early and the storm turns west?
Now we have a half a million people out of place AND the whole city of Houston to worry about.
Not to mention New Orleans takes up every hotel room for a circle greater than 200 miles in diameter. If it moved east (as it was predicted for a long time before the NHC moved the track almost 250 miles in 12 hours) nobody on the Gulf Coast could have gotten a hotel room for 300 miles.
That would have made for a pretty evacuation for the million or so people there.
>>>epic display of gross incompetence???
Look in the freaking mirror. You have no idea how to properly manage an emergency. The only reason you got your 15 minutes of fame is because a floodwall failed prematurely. (read that sentence 3 times. yes, only a freak accident made you not look like an idiot)
If the floodwall worked as it was supposed to you would have grossly damaged emergency response in the area in the future.
WHY? Because, chicken little, you don’t freaking “push the get the hell out button” every time you see a hurricane. If you do that the population gets the idea evacuations are a waste of time. Then when a real storm is coming they ignore you.
Don’t you understand any of this?
Where’s another thing you don’t understand. — The evacuation was a stunning success. — Yes, I said a stunning success. The metro New Orleans area is about a million people. About another million people live south of them. (and as we discussed need to leave first)
Of those 2 million people they had about 20,000 go to the “shelter of last resort” and another 10,000 or so shelter in place. — That’s the largest and fastest mobilization of human beings in the history of mankind. — no joke. They moved roughly 2 million people and all their possessions hundreds of miles in just about 48 hours. Let’s see another part of the world do that.
We saw what happened when Houston tried to evacuate.
Please, stick to pretending to be sports critic or whatever it is you do and leave emergency management to people who are trained to do it.
Yes, the email is real. I have it for a reason. Feel free to use it and tell me how much smarter you are than every emergency planner in the country. We all need lessons from you.
10 bucks says you delete this.
Aug 29, 2008 - 5:05 pm 12. Steve Sadlov:sanssoucy – “dey alllllllllllllways turn … yep, dem ole ‘canes, dey alllllllllllways turn … laissez les bons temps rouler!!!”
Sorry if it seems a bit harsh, I cannot resist. There is much truth to my barb. Thankfully, it is less true this time than it was for past hurricane threats to the Big Easy.
Aug 29, 2008 - 5:07 pm 13. Matt:Respectfully, what’s alarmist about your post, Mr. Loy, is that evacuation is not a zero risk proposition. For example, if you’re the doctor in charge of a geriatric population of patients, and you decide to evacuate them in the interest of avoiding a 10% risk of flooding, you’ve just killed some of them as surely as if you had shot them in the head. So if you want to post on the risk of not evacuating, that’s commendable; but the analysis is comparative, not absolute.
Aug 29, 2008 - 5:21 pm 14. David Ross:I’ll go out on a limb here and attack Glenn Reynolds’s comment: [to Zeiter, "Fortunately they have a better governor this time, though the same mayor."] “That’s not encouraging.”
No, Glenn; it IS encouraging. It seems to me that Nagin is older and wiser than he was then. He’s had many years to reflect on his mistakes, and he has a better staff than he did in ‘05. I give him credit for leaving the convention early to come back home if nothing else.
Aug 29, 2008 - 5:58 pm 15. thenakedemperor:sanssoucy, I was mostly ready on June 1. We only had to top off consumable supplies. And (sorry Brendan!) I only regularly read or post here AFTER I’ve taken care of business during a hurricane. Brendan is most certainly NOT a chicken little alarmist. He is an insightful amateur, with some of the best links to raw, “uninterpreted” data for those who prefer to assess the danger for themselves. After Betsy, Camille, and Katrina, I take these things seriously. It’s not panic to take care of things early, but wisdom born of near fatal experience.
I don’t make personal attacks, sanssoucy, but your comment makes you sound like a bit of a wanker. Perhaps you should rephrase to avoid misunderstanding.
Aug 29, 2008 - 6:03 pm 16. Gustav thoughts « Eye of the Storm:[...] Wednesday the forecast has shifted to the west a bit. Via Brendan Loy, I see that Jeff Masters issued a now is the time to get out of New Orleans message this [...]
Aug 29, 2008 - 6:07 pm 17. Bullshark:Sans Soucy, for a ‘care free man’ you seem up tight.
Aug 29, 2008 - 6:57 pm 18. Matthew in Austin:Come on Brendan, sanssoucy was clearly being a troll. I know it is hard to ignore stuff like that, but you shouldn’t feel the need to defend your views against someone clearly ignorant of the themes you continually reinforce in your posts. The readers you care about will ignore posters who beclown themselves like sanssoucy.
The most respected voices in the blogosphere never respond to critics who aren’t capable of voicing intelligent criticism. You have the potential to eventually be one of them, so you might as well start having that attitude now.
Aug 29, 2008 - 7:30 pm 19. Brendan Loy:You guys are right; I shouldn’t have fed the troll. My bad.
Sorry for the long delay in posting your comments. With this blog system, I have to approve each comment individually, and I was otherwise occupied for several hours.
Aug 29, 2008 - 8:00 pm 20. WX-MAN’s Perspective - » Gustav is a Hurricane & Strengthening, Time to Prepare!:[...] Brendan Loy, the Pajamas Media “Weather Nerd” agrees with Dr. Jeff Masters and says the following, “…if I, personally, were in New Orleans, I think I would follow Dr. Masters’s advice, and get the hell out tonight.” [...]
Aug 29, 2008 - 9:43 pm