The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger is looking at the 8pm EDT computer model runs, and he has some bad news for New Orleans:
I … expect the official track to be nudged slightly eastward toward New Orleans [at 11pm EDT] tonight. This raises the likelihood of the ["worse than Katrina"] New Orleans surge scenario I laid out below, but it’s by no means a certainty.
However, it’s not looking good.
Mayor Nagin must be looking at the same data, given his rhetoric in ordering a mandatory evacuation:
Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday warned that Gustav is the “mother of all storms” and ordered a mandatory evacuation for the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and noon for the East Bank.
“We want 100 percent evacuation,” said Nagin. “It has the potential to impact every area” . . .
“This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina,” Nagin said.
The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.
“You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now,” Nagin said.
Nagin said he expects Gustav to “punch holes in the Harvey Canal,” which will cause the West Bank to become a bath tub.
The West Bank has 8-foot-high to 10-foot-high protection, he said. Gustav’s storm surge may be 15-, to 18- to 24-feet high.
Anyone who opts to remain in New Orleans “will be on your own,” Nagin warned, adding that services will not be available.
Needless to say, I agree with the decision to evacuate. However, I think Nagin is actually going a bit overboard with his rhetoric here, perhaps overcompensating for his Katrina failures. More on that a little later.
One thing Nagin’s right about, for sure, is that New Orleans residents need to be scared — at least scared enough to, as the mayor said, get their butts out of New Orleans right now. One reason to be scared is that Gustav is actually accelerating, which is very bad news. As Alan Sullivan writes:
Forward speed has increased to 15 mph, and the steering current has really steadied. As I watch the time-lapse imagery, I can see that Gustav has settled into alignment with the other weather systems in the region, and it will probably not deviate from its present track before Gulf Coast landfall. Because it is moving faster than previous projections suggested, it will bring more of its force to the coast.
While Gustav wavered in the Caribbean, bouncing from island to island, I was hopeful that it would not reach the US as a major hurricane. Worst case scenarios rarely come to pass. First Gustav would have to escape the bind of other weather systems and mountainous terrain; then it would have to spin through a rapid intensification phase south of Cuba; finally it would have to find a strong steering current that would bear it swiftly across the Gulf before shear or cooling waters could weaken it. All these things have happened. Now it is just a question of where the eye goes ashore.
If landfall occurs near Atchafalaya Bay or further west, the eyewall will pass safely SW of New Orleans. In that case conditions at the city should not severe enough to breach major levees, unless they are weaker than they were before Katrina. But if landfall occurs near Grand Isle, then New Orleans will be hammered by the northeast quadrant of the storm — the strongest part.
That would the worst-case scenario, and indeed, the true “mother of all storms.”
But it’s only one scenario, and that’s where I think Nagin’s rhetoric is a bit overheated. Gustav may be worse than Betsy and Katrina, but that remains to be seen; it all depends on the track, how much the storm strengthens tomorrow morning and afternoon, and how much it weakens tomorrow night and Monday before landfall. Residents definitely need to know that it could be worse than Betsy and Katrina, you don’t want to tell people it’s definitely going to be worse than those storms, lest your overconfident forecast fail to verify, and you become the “boy who cried wolf” — unable to motivate people to leave the next time a potential “mother of all storms” threatens.
Moreover, Nagin made one statement that makes no sense whatsoever to me, which I edited out of my earlier blockquote because I think it’s just flat incorrect. According to the Times-Picayune paraphrase, Nagin said “Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles … [whereas] Gustav is about 900 miles and growing.” As far as I can tell, that’s simply not true. According to the NHC, Gustav’s tropical-storm force winds extend a maximum of 170 miles out from the center, on the northeast side; on other sides, the boundary is about 140 or 85 miles. You could say it has a 300-mile “footprint,” perhaps a bit more if you include peripheral effects outside the sustained tropical-storm-force area — but certainly not 900 miles, which is roughly the width of the entire Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida!
And while Gustav is indeed growing, it’s not bigger than Katrina, at least not yet — and there’s no possible way it will ever be more than twice Katrina’s size. I don’t even think that’s physically possible at the Gulf’s latitude.
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16 Comments
1. Plunkster:I’ve been watching WWL (via streaming video)all day today, and their meteorologist has beem giving almost the opposite of Mayor Nagin’s point of view. He’s been giving zone forecasts all day and saying that “at this point, we can ignore the cone and focus on the point where we think lad fall will occur.” Indeed he’s been repeatedly showing a map which he is using to show most of Metro New Orleans on the edge of the Hurricane force winds. I can’t believe it.
Aug 30, 2008 - 6:57 pm 2. Eric:>Needless to say, I agree with the decision to evacuate. However, I think Nagin is actually going a bit overboard with his rhetoric here, perhaps overcompensating for his Katrina failures. More on that a little later.
You’re just never happy huh?
Why don’t you just go run for mayor of New Orleans and show everybody first hand how wonderful you are.
Your ego is larger than the storm.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:00 pm 3. Brendan Loy:My point isn’t to savage Nagin. I think he’s generally doing a good job here. But I’m not just going to let factually incorrect statements, like saying Gustav is 900 miles wide, pass without comment.
If you think my criticisms are in some way incorrect, factually speaking, then I’m all ears. Maybe I’ve misinterpreted the data in some way; wouldn’t be the first time. I definitely want to be corrected if I’m wrong. On the other hand, if all you have to offer is insults, then you’re just being a troll.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:05 pm 4. Greg:We won’t know the facts until the storm has passed. Storms are like snowflakes: everyone is different.
If Nagin is overcompensating, it is understandable. There will be plenty of time for Monday morning quarterbacking but I’ll put a couple of cents in.
The big footprint rebuild of the city was a mistake. The right to return for everyone was a mistake. You cannot run a moderate sized city and area when you have to evacuate every three or four years or more.
All of my close family is gone. I live high enough so I am not afraid of any surge. I am more concerned about the lack of electricity for a period of time.
My evacuation spot is Dallas, and the damned storm is tracking that way so I may have to wait and go the long way around if I leave. I-49 might be a mess.
Like most of New Orleans, once you get outside of the levees on the West Bank, it is low lying swamp/wetlands. It is not much of barrier anymore to a surge.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:11 pm 5. Call:Wow. A Nagin defender. That’s a tough row to hoe.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:12 pm 6. Raki:I think Nagin could have read from the phone book and had an equal effect.
Most people in New Orleans (for evacuation purposes) listen to the governor and to the leaders of the surrounding parishes. (People believe Jindl to be competent, if you disagree with him, and the leaders of the surrounding parishes have a degree of credibility after Katrina.)
Uptown New Orleans is pretty deserted. Very few cars on the street. Many buildings are boarded up, and I haven’t seen a Hurricane Party. Even the college kids are packing up and getting out of town.
I’ve never seen the city like this before a hurricane has even entered the Gulf.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:23 pm 7. roux:Contra flow will start at 4am Sunday. I have to go in to work tomorrow and this will only make it worse.
Just let the morons leave on their own.
Aug 30, 2008 - 7:27 pm 8. thenakedemperor:Brendan, before this goes any farther, I just want to express my thanks. Here in Amite, we’re finishing outdoor preps, ready inside. at times like this, your’s is one of the regular sites checked frequently along with Fox8, NHC, and spaghetti models. Thanks for keeping a better eye on things than those of us busy with preparations.
Keep up the good work.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:10 pm 9. Mary:The day Hurricane Betsy hit N.O., I got off work at Tulane Medical School at 5 p.m. & picked up the States Item newspaper with the front headline screaming BETSY HEADS FOR NO. My sister and I weathered the storm at the Cabana Club Apartments on St. Charles Ave. We heard later the winds were 175 miles an hour. The beautiful canopy of oak trees on St. Charles were decimated and have never recovered. We lived to tell the tale. The winds “howled” and the eye passed right over us with quietness and then howling began again. Scary!! No electricity for a week but no flooding in our area. Never again a “Hurricane Party” for us – Hurricanes are not for celebrating.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:10 pm 10. David:If you think my criticisms are in some way incorrect, factually speaking, then I’m all ears.
They aren’t. I had exactly the same response watching it. So did my next door neighbor. He backed off the hyperbole with the first question.
The French Quarter and adjacent neighborhoods have turned quiet to the point of creepiness.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:13 pm 11. Greg:If this was in reference to my comments, I think Nagin is a horrible mayor. I can simply understand any overcompensation at this point.
He is unconnected to the city’s problems He is absent from the war against horrible violent crime. His selection of Ed Blakley for the recovery is worse than a joke. His most recent Technology manager was worse than Blakley.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:19 pm 12. Eric:Nobody is “defending” Nagin.
But the constant whining and searching high and low for any little fault real or imagined to pick at gets a bit tiring.
If he doesn’t tell people they are all going to die if they don’t leave, “certain people” will whine about it. — But if he tells people they are all going to die if they don’t leave, “certain people” whine about that.
Nobody is defending Nagain. I’m just asking “certain people” to quit being idiots and grow up.
The storm is a serious threat to life and property, it’s not here to feed “certain peoples’” over inflated egos.
I would (apparently foolishly) think the gravity of the situation would make people realize that playing stupid “gotchya” games is childish and doesn’t make them look smart, it makes them look like juvenile.
But maybe I expect too much.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:43 pm 13. peter jackson:Jeebus. I’m beginning to wonder if it would help New Orleans to quit giving these storms Russian names.
Aug 30, 2008 - 8:47 pm 14. Brendan Loy:Again, Eric, the purpose of my comment was not to find fault with Nagin. So far as I can tell, I think he’s doing a fine job, overall, with this storm. I’ve said that several times now.
But I wasn’t going to quote a factually inaccurate statement without commenting on its inaccuracy. If I did that, people (perhaps yourself included) would have accused ME of “hyping” the storm! I’m trying to present an accurate picture of what’s happening, to the best of my ability, and so if an official says something obviously inaccurate in the course of a newsworthy statement, I can’t in good conscience quote it, but then fail to comment on it. (And since it’s newsworthy — a mandatory evacuation order! — I obviously can’t simply not quote it.)
Again, I think Nagin’s doing a good job overall. My criticism, in this post, of one particular thing he’s said, is quite mild, and I think fair. If you think it isn’t fair, you certainly haven’t made an actual argument for why not. You just keep insulting me, which is not terribly interesting.
So… I would again challenge you to find anything remotely inaccurate in what I said. If you cannot do that, perhaps YOU are the one “searching high and low for any little fault real or imagined to pick at” … and in this instance, finding nothing, but trollishly firing blanks at me, anyway.
If you continue in this vein, with substanceless insults, I may stop approving your comments. You’ve been warned. I have no problem with you criticizing me, or correcting me if I make a mistake, but please say something substantive and factual and relevant and constructive. Personal attacks and insults are pointless, and a waste of space and time. Nobody cares what you think about my “ego.” E-mail me at irishtrojan [at] gmail.com if you must vent. (I probably won’t reply, but hey, you can get it out of your system.) In the mean time, this space will remain dedicated to talking about, y’know, the hurricane. Thanks.
Aug 30, 2008 - 9:06 pm 15. NukemHill:I believe Gustav is a German name.
Aug 30, 2008 - 9:38 pm 16. Fresh Bilge » Politics of Gustav:[...] new head of FEMA are working hard. Inexplicably reelected, the incompetent Mayor of New Orleans has already pissed his pants, but that can’t be helped, and it probably doesn’t [...]
Aug 31, 2008 - 4:46 am