http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/09/levee-breech-in-suburban-nola.html

Still, hoping everything works out and no one loses their lives in this storm.

What does the historical record indicate? What are the odds that the threat would greatly diminish before it hit New Orleans? How often has the city actually been hit by 150 mph winds? Were the odds one in five, one in a hundred, or even lower than that. I could admittedly be wrong. You have studied this matter in far greater depth than myself. Nonetheless, I wonder if the odds makers would have concluded that the elderly should have remained closer to home.

My gut feeling is that overall the levees are better than before Katrina but we still have wetlands loss, and the infrastructure in the city itself is fragile.

I also believe that much of the repairs on homes has been shoddy, and many homes are more subject to wind damage.

At this time yesterday, we all still expected Gustav to get back up to Cat 4 minimally, and we did not know where landfall would be. A Cat 4 with a Besty landfall would have been the big disaster.

The evacuation of New Orleans was totally, indisputably necessary. That three people tragically died in the evacuation does not change that fact. Yes, evacuations themselves are always risky. They aren’t cost-free. But if the last 30 hours had turned out a bit differently — and, as of Saturday night, we had no right to assume they wouldn’t — the death toll in New Orleans, had people stayed, could have been counted in the thousands.

Hindsight is 20/20, my friend. It is grossly irresponsible, always, to criticize evacuation decisions based on hindsight. You must judge them based on contemporaneous facts.