Times-Picayune reporter Sheila Grissett, “embedded” with the Army Corps of Engineers, reports:
The latest prediction of reduced Hurricane Gustav storm surge should be good news for the Industrial Canal and St. Bernard Parish levees, but may still potentially put water over deficient levees on the west bank of Jefferson Parish, the Army Corps of Engineers’ ranking officer said Sunday. …
Just 24 hours ago…predicted surges at landfall ranged from 20 to 25 feet along the coast. They have since fallen to a range of 12 to 16 feet.
There’s much more local news from Louisiana in the New Orleans Hurricane Center.
Meanwhile, another great resource is the Best of New Orleans Blog. Among other things, they’re reporting on major evacuation problems along I-59 (the contraflow is called “a joke”), giving us an introduction to Houma, the town that may take Gustav’s hardest blow (and the town, as I mentioned earlier, where The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore is riding out the storm); and posting pretty, eerie photos of “The Big Empty,” post-evacuation New Orleans.
P.S. Speaking of those “pretty, eerie photos,” the Times-Picayune has a video along the same lines:
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12 Comments
1. dr kill:I have friends and family in LA who were planning on fleeing east on I-10, but were frustrated by MS and AL govs closing the highway to them. This shit should have been better explained. It is responsible for the congestion.
Aug 31, 2008 - 6:39 pm 2. Hucbald:It’s a tough call, evacuations. I worked in-agency for FEMA for five years, and as an IC for FEMA for an additional two, so I’ve worked many hurricanes, both as a supervisor field inspector and a supervisor case reviewer. The stuff I’ve seen. Princeville NC after Floyd was the worst.
Anyway, most hurricanes don’t go where they are projected to go, and most evacuations end up being unnecessary. The result is, over time, populations get tired of the ‘routine’ and say to hell with it. The obvious ultimate result is a Katrina scenario where many people don’t leave, and so get caught up in the aftermath.
There really isn’t any solution, given human nature.
Aug 31, 2008 - 6:56 pm 3. Greg:Like everyone else, I woke up the morning after Katrina and thought we had dodged the bullet. Then, I heard on the radio that someone in my old neighborhood said she was in the attic and the water kept coming up. Her cell phone was still working.
I think this time we have dodged the bullet.
Again, we can Monday morning quarterback this, but the whole idea of trying to repopulate all of New Orleans was foolish, even though it is not happening anyway.
My family came to New Orleans in 1852, and I don’t like saying it, but the city should be the high ground and not much else.
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:10 pm 4. doctorj2u:Greg,
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:19 pm 5. RebeccaH:As I am sure you know, LA came up with a plan, the Baker Plan, that would have done just that but the White House pulled their support for it after supporting it for months. The very next day the President had a news conference where he said he would “like to support those folks in that part of the world if only they had a plan”. It was at that point he lost my support.
Is it just me, or are these video clips (particularly the still photos) less than compelling? Is New Orleans empty, or not? And is Gustav going to cause a giant storm surge, or miss, or peter out altogether?
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:37 pm 6. abhishek:Here’s another blog by a guy who is riding out the hurricane.
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:39 pm 7. doctorj2u:http://ridingustav.blogspot.com
Brendan,
I know this is a little off topic but I know you are a Notre Dame man. I saw this documentary on PBS on the anniversary of Katruna. It is called Chhurch on Dauphine Street. Watch the youtube promotional video. It really was so inspiring and uplifting. It showed how New Orleans has been rebuilt, by natives that refuse to give up on a city and culture they love dearly and unbelievably wonderful human beings that volunteer that hands and hearts to help their fellow man.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bF0kwNx6Be8
I LOVED it!
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:48 pm 8. Brendan Loy:Rebecca, I’ve done the best I can to answer your latter questions in various other posts on this blog. You just need to scroll down a bit. The short answer is, we don’t know exactly what is going to happen, but it looks like New Orleans will be spared a worst-case scenario. As for whether New Orleans is empty, I confess I haven’t heard any statistics on how many people are left behind. Hopefully not too many, just in case the levees don’t live up to expectations and/or the storm makes an unwanted rightward jog.
Aug 31, 2008 - 7:55 pm 9. doctorj2u:Mitch Landrieu, the Lt. Governor told Anderson Cooper about 10,000 are left in the city and probably 100,000 left in coastal LA. Ivan van heerdon said they expect 100 deaths by drowning. 1.9 million evacuated from lower LA, about 95% of the population.
Aug 31, 2008 - 8:05 pm 10. Brendan Loy:Thanks!
10,000 in New Orleans is a big improvement over 2005, even adjusting for the decreased population. People got the hell out. Good for them. The question if, if (as seems likely) they “dodge a bullet” with Gustav, will they “get the hell out” again, the next time?
Aug 31, 2008 - 8:08 pm 11. doctorj2u:Brendan,
Aug 31, 2008 - 8:26 pm 12. Brendan Loy:People will evacuate until they trust the levees. Right now they don’t. If they hold up in this storm, it will go a long way towards the healing of the city.
That actually concerns me a bit, because this storm may not actually test them that severely. Gustav may teach people to “trust the levees” when they really shouldn’t. False security is bad.
Aug 31, 2008 - 8:30 pm