Weather Nerd
September 4th, 2008 2:01 pm

Models cluster on South Florida threat from Ike

Just a quick update: Eric Berger writes that the computer models analyzing Hurricane Ike’s future have “clustered” around a track that takes the storm toward South Florida in 5-6 days. (See here.) Intensity estimates vary, but one important model, the HWRF, shows a 140-mph hurricane slamming Miami on Tuesday:

ike-miami-sm.jpg

Of course, you can’t trust a five-day consensus forecast, let alone a five-day forecast from an individual computer model, with any degree of precision — and the models often overstate intensity — but, just to be clear, Ike is a real threat. Certainly, he is expected to be a major hurricane (i.e., 115 mph or above) at landfall, if he makes landfall. Ike will weaken tonight and tomorrow, but don’t let that fool you. Re-strengthening is expected.

Alan Sullivan, in Dania Beach, writes: “I just booked a room in Fort Myers. We’re getting out on Monday, if this thing is still on track.”

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7 Comments

1. WX-MAN’s Perspective - » Thursday Update Hanna and Ike:

[...] Brendan Loy the “Weather Nerd” points out what a good deal of the models are pointing out: Just a quick update: Eric Berger writes that the computer models analyzing Hurricane Ike’s future have “clustered” around a track that takes the storm toward South Florida in 5-6 days. (See here.) Intensity estimates vary, but one important model, the HWRF, shows a 140-mph hurricane slamming Miami on Tuesday: Click here to read the full post [...]

Sep 4, 2008 - 5:01 pm 2. Fresh Bilge » Vultures in Miami:

[...] funds” are ready to swoop down on Miami condos, if they aren’t all blown away by hurricane Ike. Posted at 8:19 PM | [...]

Sep 4, 2008 - 5:19 pm 3. SteveSadlov:

A bullet was dodged with Gustav. May it be again with this hype worthy storm.

Meanwhile, the NHC cry wolf with Hanna. Shame on them.

There are storms and there are storms.

Focus on the real threats.

Sep 4, 2008 - 6:12 pm 4. Julia:

Looks like I’ll be going to see my step brother at UCF sooner than I thought. I really really hate living in South Florida.

Sep 4, 2008 - 8:47 pm 5. PenguinSix:

Has anyone ever ‘ranked’ the various models by accuracy of forecasts?

Sep 5, 2008 - 3:29 am 6. Ironman:

If it hits SE FL that strong, SW FL won’t be that much of a picnic. And ala Katrina, it might restreghten over the Gulf

Sep 5, 2008 - 3:56 am 7. Hurricane Zuba:

Hey, who cut your hair?

Sep 5, 2008 - 1:22 pm

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