Just a quick update: Eric Berger writes ^[1] that the computer models analyzing Hurricane Ike’s future have “clustered” around a track that takes the storm toward South Florida in 5-6 days. (See here ^[2].) Intensity estimates vary, but one important model, the HWRF, shows a 140-mph hurricane slamming Miami on Tuesday:

^[3]

Of course, you can’t trust a five-day consensus forecast, let alone a five-day forecast from an individual computer model, with any degree of precision — and the models often overstate intensity — but, just to be clear, Ike is a real threat. Certainly, he is expected to be a major hurricane (i.e., 115 mph or above) at landfall, if he makes landfall. Ike will weaken tonight and tomorrow, but don’t let that fool you. Re-strengthening is expected.

Alan Sullivan, in Dania Beach, writes ^[4]: “I just booked a room in Fort Myers. We’re getting out on Monday, if this thing is still on track.”