9/7, 4:44 PM EDT: That’s the question Alan Sullivan is asking, as he watches the satellite loop and sees a distinct northerly component to Hurricane Ike’s motion over the last several hours. I see it, too.
It’s too early to say, however, whether this is a mere “trochoidal wobble” or an actual change in course. The consensus at the Eastern U.S. WX Forums is that it’s probably just a “wobble” — unsurprising, given that the storm is currently going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Likewise, Dr. Jeff Masters, commenting on his own blog, wrote at 3:09 PM EDT:
Yes, there has been some WNW motion the past hour, as pointed out. This is probably a wobble, and the storm will resume a W motion within the next two hours. The models are pretty firm that the WNW turn is not due yet. Still, every wobble north increases the chances of a Cat 3+ in the Florida Straits.
I suspect the 5pm NHC advisory will say something similar. The forecasters tend to be very conservative about wobbles, as they know from experience how often such events prove transitory.
On the other hand, Sullivan — who, remember, is (like me) not a meteorologist, just a weather buff with a strong layperson’s knowledge of hurricanes — thinks this “wobble” is the real deal:
Leaving the tip of Grand Inagua Island, the eye of Ike was heading straight west, but in the last couple of hours its course shows a shift to the right. This could be just a wobble, but on the larger-scale vapor-loop, I am seeing subtle changes in the steering pattern over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf — changes that also hint at a rightward shift. If this trend bears out in the next hours, it will increase the likelihood of a swipe at the lower Keys.
We shall see.
Even if this apparent course change is “just” a wobble, it could be significant nonetheless, as one poster on the Eastern WX forums pointed out: “Every WNW wobble that is not countered by a WSW wobble will shave [time from the storm's passage] over Cuba . . . given the trajectory from which it will be moving and the anticipated turn. Every single wobble is potentially very significant.”
You can watch the progress of the “wobble” for yourself on the visible, infrared and water vapor satellite loops, and on Cuban radar.
UPDATE, 5:24 PM EDT: It looks to me like the wobble is over, and Ike is moving due west again.
UPDATE, 6:21 PM EDT: Sullivan writes in comments, “Yes, but previously it was moving WSW. I still think we could be seeing a course change.” Meanwhile, on his blog, he posts an update:
I see the wobbles, but I think they overlie a course-change that has in fact begun. For that reason, let me propose a best case scenario. Everyone loves worst cases. There is still a chance that Ike won’t cause a major disaster. Imagine that the hurricane wobbles along the north coast of Cuba, but never quite drives ashore, and weakens as it interacts with land. Next, it passes a bit south of Key West, battering the town only moderately. Ike moves into the Gulf and scares the bejezus out of everyone, then encounters shear and dry air. Eventually it heads ashore in Texas at category one, and drops rain on droughty areas inland. Best case. And it could happen.
Sounds good, though to truly be “best case,” it would have avoid “scaring the bejezus” out of New Orleans, in particular, to the point of evacuation. If New Orleanians are forced to evacuate their city twice in two weeks, for two “false alarms,” I fear it will set back disaster preparedness in that city for a generation. Don’t get me wrong: another evacuation order would be necessary if the risk once again gets high enough. No doubt about that. But the fact remains, there are only so many times you can tell people to flee the next potential ”mother of all storms” before they stop listening — and twice is two weeks is too often. So, as I said earlier, I hope New Orleans gets not just a near-miss, but a far-miss.
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1. Alan Sullivan:Yes, but previously it was moving WSW. I still think we could be seeing a course change.
Sep 7, 2008 - 2:45 pm 2. Ironman:Perhaps someone might want to explain that spending time away from home in late August/early September is just something folks in NOLA need to get used to.
Here’s a modest suggestion: reschedule schools in Louisiana to start the third week in September and run past the 4th of July. This would lead many parents to be out of town already for the peak hurricane season
Sep 7, 2008 - 5:25 pm 3. Hawk:As a resident of the New Orleans area who lives in a state that, just a few days ago, had 50% of its residents without power, I don’t consider Gustav a “false alarm”. There was widespread damage from both wind and water. The reason people won’t evacuate for the next storm is financial, not because of the “boy who cried wolf” syndrome. People are already talking about how expensive evac’ing for Gustav was and how they can’t afford it again so soon–even if they think they should. Evac’ing is a huge financial burden on some people because not only do they not get paid, but they are also putting out a lot of money for hotel rooms, food, fuel, post storm repairs, and replacing the contents of their freezers and refrigerators which were almost certainly lost.
Sep 7, 2008 - 5:26 pm 4. Greg:If the New Orleans area has to evacuate again, you will also see many new requests for more Federal aid on top of what has been spent so far on Katrina rebuilding, etc.
There are a lot of $12 to $15 a hour people who would do anything to avoid the group shelters but will be stretched to put out for another half week or week in a motel. I am already hearing grumbling and it is understandable.
Next time, they might not go at all.
Fortunately, this is all getting ahead of the reality of the weather at this point.
Sep 7, 2008 - 5:36 pm 5. Ubu Roi:I had the opportunity to spend time with Isiah Carey of Fox 26 recently who was a Baton Rouge native, and broadcast from there during the storm. New Orleans was not the story of Gustav. Large swaths of Baton Rouge and the surroundings are only now getting power back, if at all. They took a direct pounding from the eye, and all the attention on N.O. meant that they’ve been suffering in silence.
Sep 7, 2008 - 6:18 pm 6. sgs:Ubu Roi: Correct.
Not only Baton Rouge, but also Lafayette, Opelousas, and ALL of Avoyelles Parish. The media seems to salivate at the prospect of New Orleans sustaining a direct hit, even when it’s obvious that landfall is more likely than not elsewhere.
The bottom line is that folks living in the areas that WERE hardest hit who stay glued to media reports of predicted path (of New Orleans) ultimately end up thinking that N.O. is where the story is ….which just isn’t true. Media did a huge disservice to the residents of most of S.E. Louisiana by placing ALL of their focus on New Orleans. Wrong. Plain wrong.
Sep 7, 2008 - 7:06 pm 7. Hal:Ubo Roi & sgs, you’re both right about Baton Rouge. It got completely hammered by Gustav. Without question Hurricane Gustav is the worst storm in the city’s recorded history. Every block has numerous downed trees, with many of them on houses. And, city officials are estimating up to three to four weeks before everyone has electricity again. I noticed that a good one third of MSNBC’s coverage of Gustav, as it traveled through the Gulf of Mexico, was spent showing images of a flooded New Orleans after Katrina. Without those tragic images re-created by Gustav, why bother covering what happened to Baton Rouge and the surrounding area? I won’t speculate on MSNBC’s motive for showing three year-old clips from after Katrina, but it does make one wonder.
Also, I’ve found google maps to be a fascinating source for gaining a sense of what kind of damage Ike may be causing at the time of this comment. At this very moment, based on the satellite imagery http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html Ike appears to be passing over a beautiful little town called Gibara, Cuba. Google maps has an array of very nice photos of the place that, if you’re a praying person, might inspire you to pray for the people who live here: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl&q=cuba . Also, here’s an interesting panoramic view of this charming small Cuban town: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/4913264
Sep 7, 2008 - 8:44 pm 8. Pajamas Media » Where Will Hurricane Ike Strike?:[...] Keep up with the hurricane news here. [...]
Sep 8, 2008 - 2:12 am 9. John:Brendon, you did a great job covering Hurricane Katrina, but what is wrong with your coverage now. Like you, I’m a weather freak, but I came to depend on you when you hit Pajamas Media. Unfortunately, you have been consistenlty late in your reporting of current hurricanes. First, I had the two day delay with Gustov while you were “out of computer connnections”, then you had a bad night, didn’t fell well. So fine, if you CAN’T provide constant updates, can’t be in touch with the rest of us who are looking for updates on an hourly basis, give it up!
If you want to be the weather caster here on Pajamas media, be around when the rest of us are looking for information.
You are a failure, sorry to tell you buddy.
John, in Dublin California
Sep 8, 2008 - 2:31 am 10. Brendan Loy:John,
I’m sorry you are disappointed with the frequency of my updates. There is no question that I have been unable to re-create the “hyperactive” pace of my Katrina-blogging. The reason is simple: Katrina approached and hit the Gulf Coast during the weekend at the end of the first week of my second year in law school. At that particular moment in time, I had limited outside responsibilities, and was able to blog pretty much non-stop. I got little sleep for those three days, and even when school started up again the following week, I was able to continue frequently updating by falling behind in my homework, missing some classes, etc.
Now, I am a father with a full-time job. I can’t fall behind in either of those responsibilities: neither my work nor my eight-month-old daughter can be “put on hold” for a hurricane, the way I essentially put my life on hold during Katrina. So instead, I post as many updates as I reasonably can, and provide prominent links to other weatherbloggers so that you can check their sites for information, too, when I haven’t updated in a while.
I don’t think it’s an all-or-nothing proposition. Jeff Masters is one of the finest weatherbloggers on the Web, and he usually posts just 1-3 updates a day. Same thing with Eric Berger. The torrid update-every-30-minutes pace that I maintained during Katrina is very unusual, and it’s easy to see why: you pretty much have to be a full-time weatherblogger to do that, and being a full-time weatherblogger doesn’t pay the bills.
Sep 8, 2008 - 4:05 am 11. chsw:From what I heard this morning, Havana will take a lot of flooding and wind damage, even though Ike will not make a direct hit. Perhaps GWB can send a relief mission of several thousand marines.
chsw
Sep 8, 2008 - 5:31 am 12. sgs:Brendan Loy:
You’re doing a fantastic job and (voluntarily!) providing a valuable service to me and - from what I’m seeing as far as other sites referencing and recommending you - many others out here in the dark who dig a bit deeper for tropical weather information this time of year.
I particularly appreciate your right sidebar references to some of the other weather folks’ sites. Between you and them, I feel that I am getting some damned good information …MUCH better than what I get from the drones and drama queens on television.
I don’t live in sunny *Dublin CA* ….I live 40 miles from the Gulf of Mexico in Lafayette LA (where my need for storm information is more than likely a wee bit more important on a life-saving basis) and as such, I find myself in the justified position of saying to John, “Go piss up a rope.”.
Brandon, thank you and keep up the great work. We’re reading your blog in this area and we appreciate what you’re doing.
Sep 8, 2008 - 7:39 am 13. Saltherring:Hal:
Perhaps MSNBC could send discredited “journalists” Olberman and Matthews to Havana to cover Ike…..and leave them there.
Sep 8, 2008 - 7:47 am