9/8, 1:21 PM EDT: Hurricane Ike did not made the expected west-northwest turn overnight, which would have kept its core over the spine of Cuba, and instead has continued plowing ahead on a due west course. As a result, Ike’s center has now re-emerged over water in the western Caribbean Sea, just south of Cuba, after about 14 hours over land.
Visible satellite at 12:15 PM EDT. Live loop here.
The computer models still insist on a WNW turn, and so does the official NHC forecast track. However, given Ike’s present location, it now likely — even if the expected turn does finally materialize — to remain centered over water for most of the next 36 hours:
On such a track, Cuba’s mountains would still likely interfere somewhat with Ike’s circulation, but the storm’s central core would remain over warm water, and thus we should expect less weakening than originally anticipated. The NHC’s 11am EDT discussion acknowledges as much:
EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON. IF THIS MATERIALIZES…IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN…AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.
Specifically, Ike is now forecast to weaken only to a Category 1 hurricane, rather than a tropical storm. After that, re-strengthening is forecast over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing Ike back to major hurricane status in four days.
There’s nothing much new to say about Ike’s eventual Gulf coast destination — we still just don’t know, and probably won’t begin to have a clearer idea until the storm clears Cuba. We can now say, however, that the Florida Keys appear to be out of the woods. But as Alan Sullivan writes:
Evacuating Key West was the right thing to do, though it has proven unnecessary. Islanders are too far from safety to wait until the last minute. Prudent evacuations ought to be accepted as a small price for the pleasures of life there.
Dr. Jeff Masters and Eric Berger have much more on Ike. (Berger thinks any evacuation orders for parts of the Houston/Galveston area would begin late Tuesday or early Wednesday, once Ike emerges from Cuba, if the forecast track remains aimed at the area.)
In addition, Berger will have a live chat on Ike at 3:00 PM EDT.
Also, here are links to various Cuban radar sites, which will come in handy over the next couple of days. And here’s a helpful composite loop of all the sites.
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12 Comments
1. cbrown:Brendan,
You stated above that “Berger thinks evacuation orders for Houston/Galveston will begin…”. Following the link, he specifically mentions Galveston and COASTAL AREAS around Houston. Houston is signficantly inland, and given that it is the 4th-largest city in the US, evacuation of THE CITY is not a preferred option. Please do not confuse coastal areas with anything close to the city.
The “evacuation” (i.e., “gridlock”) for Rita was among the dumbest moves ever. Galveston is historically at risk, but Houston is not.
As far as flooding goes, TS Alison was about as bad as it gets in the city of Houston, but as with other at-risk areas people in severe flood-prone areas should know who they are.
Sep 8, 2008 - 11:12 am 2. Anton:Kewl tracking site for those so inclined: http://www.stormpulse.com/
Sep 8, 2008 - 11:36 am 3. Greg:Brendan,
You were quoted in the New York Times. I will have to think if that is congratulatory or not.
Well, congratulations.
Sep 8, 2008 - 11:39 am 4. Brendan Loy:cbrown, I did not mean to imply that the entire Houston/Galveston region would, or should, be evacuated. My wording “evacuation orders for Houston/Galveston will begin” was intended to imply that we’ll start seeing some orders for that area at that time. But I could have been clearer. I’ve re-worded it to “Berger thinks any evacuation orders for parts of the Houston/Galveston area.”
Sep 8, 2008 - 11:54 am 5. Bo McIlvain:There is an amazing story here that many seem to have missed – Ike has confounded the models for days in the SHORT TERM. This is not a routine failure of long term forecasts, but a persistent failure of all the models to predict Ike’s track over the near term 24 hour period. All of them (except simpleminded XTRP) have predicted a northward turn in less than 24 hrs for the last WEEK. If I was in Cancun right now, I’d be getting worried…
Sep 8, 2008 - 12:50 pm 6. Brendan Loy:Bo, if you look at the 3-day forecast loop, I think you’ll find that what you’ve said isn’t quite right. The models overstated the predicted northward motion back on Monday and Tuesday, but the Wednesday-Friday short-term forecasts were pretty good. The early Saturday forecasts failed to predict a slight southward jog, but the late Saturday and early Sunday forecasts were quite accurate out to 24 hours. Only since midday Sunday do we see serious inaccuracy in the 24-hour forecasts.
Sep 8, 2008 - 1:06 pm 7. Brendan Loy:P.S. Also, “all of them (except simpleminded XTRP) have predicted a northward turn in less than 24 hrs for the last WEEK” is certainly wrong. Back on Thursday and Friday, the models were — correctly — predicting a southward turn within hours.
Sep 8, 2008 - 1:08 pm 8. The Monster:The key rule is “Run from the water; hide from the wind.” Low-lying coastal areas that take a lot of time to evacuate, like the Keys, NOLA, and Galveston, simply have a lower risk threshhold than higher elevations further inland.
The Keys are probably the most extreme case, because there is a single two-lane highway connecting them to the mainland. If you wait until a hit is “likely”, you’re out of time to do anything about it, and there are no structures on those islands where it’s safe to ride out the storm surge a major hurricane can produce.
If you’re in Houston proper, where a storm surge isn’t much of a problem, you can wait until the storm is practically on top of you and head for the room where you’re best equipped to survive a tornado (which you’d better have anyway, because tornadoes hit Houston even without tropical storms). Those who don’t have adequate provisions in their homes can wait nearly as long before going to stronger buildings nearby that do. There is no reason to evacuate the entire city of Houston like there is in NOLA (where a storm surge could legitimately flood the whole city).
Sep 8, 2008 - 1:21 pm 9. Hucbald:This storm reminds me a little of Mitch when I was withh FEMA. It was a colossal monster and everyone said it would turn north. It never did, plowing into Mexico instead.
Sep 8, 2008 - 1:22 pm 10. Bo McIlvain:I haven’t been saving copies of the model run forecasts, so I can’t dispute you with any certainty, but 3DayLoopLooksSmoothUntilToday ModelsWereAccurate in programmerspeak. The first two points in the cone wiggle around like crazy. I have a daughter living in Key West and I’ve been watching the models carefully with lots of worry about her. It’s my recollection that nearly all the models since late last week have been consistently to the north of the actual track in the 24 hour period, FWIW. You’re surely right about the southward turn Thursday and Friday, but it seems to me the storm went further southward than was predicted even then. Anyway, without firm data in my hand I’ll not press the point further.
Sep 8, 2008 - 1:50 pm 11. Greg:Unlike the New Orleans area where everyone has to run for the hills, Houston has zonal planning for evacuation or not.
If you are near Galveston or even some areas of Houston proper, you should go if a Cat 3 storm is bearing down on you.
http://www.houstontx.gov/oem/evac.html
Sep 8, 2008 - 2:28 pm 12. Nathan:This probably isn’t news to anyone here, but the last few hours of visible satellite imagery show a rightward bend. This vindicates the models somewhat, but more importantly it means Cuba will interfere with the circulation more over the next day or so. Bad news for the poor folks who live in Cuba though–this has been a ridiculous hurricane season for them.
Sep 8, 2008 - 2:49 pm