Comments on: Get the hell out! Ike’s storm surge is a deadly threat! http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/ Brendan Loy\'s hurricane blog Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:09:13 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Weather Nerd » The Great Galveston Hurricane of 2008 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-937 Weather Nerd » The Great Galveston Hurricane of 2008 Sat, 13 Sep 2008 03:07:50 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-937 [...] how a “mere” Category 2 hurricane could cause these sorts of alarms, read here and here. Or just scroll down my homepage; it’s practically all I’ve been talking about for the [...] [...] how a “mere” Category 2 hurricane could cause these sorts of alarms, read here and here. Or just scroll down my homepage; it’s practically all I’ve been talking about for the [...]

]]> By: Brendan Loy http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-863 Brendan Loy Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:46:05 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-863 <i>Houston</i> should not evacuate. <i>Galveston</i>, should. (Or should have. It's probably too late now, or nearly so, with the advance surge already underway.) My post makes this distinction pretty clear, I think. If you read the first paragraph, you'll see it's explicitly directed at "<b>Texans in low-lying coastal areas, directly in Hurricane Ike’s path and vulnerable to storm surge</b>." Unless I'm very much mistaken, that would not include anyone in Houston proper. As for Rita, it <i>did not hit</i> Houston/Galveston. It turned right at the last minute (though this eventuality could not be guaranteed at the time evacuations were ordered). It does not appear that Ike will do the same. Moreover, the main reason the Rita evacuation was such a fiasco is because lots of people who <i>didn't need to evacuate</i> -- and who weren't ordered to evacuate -- panicked, and evacuated, because of media overhype and inaccuracy, and because of what they'd seen on TV in New Orleans three weeks earlier, and because Rita looked so damn scary on satellite. As the saying goes: Run from the water, hide from the wind. All I'm saying in this post is: <b>run from the water, you idiots</b>. I'm not suggesting that anybody run from the wind (which won't be that bad anyway). Houston should not evacuate.

Galveston, should. (Or should have. It’s probably too late now, or nearly so, with the advance surge already underway.)

My post makes this distinction pretty clear, I think. If you read the first paragraph, you’ll see it’s explicitly directed at “Texans in low-lying coastal areas, directly in Hurricane Ike’s path and vulnerable to storm surge.” Unless I’m very much mistaken, that would not include anyone in Houston proper.

As for Rita, it did not hit Houston/Galveston. It turned right at the last minute (though this eventuality could not be guaranteed at the time evacuations were ordered). It does not appear that Ike will do the same.

Moreover, the main reason the Rita evacuation was such a fiasco is because lots of people who didn’t need to evacuate — and who weren’t ordered to evacuate — panicked, and evacuated, because of media overhype and inaccuracy, and because of what they’d seen on TV in New Orleans three weeks earlier, and because Rita looked so damn scary on satellite.

As the saying goes: Run from the water, hide from the wind. All I’m saying in this post is: run from the water, you idiots. I’m not suggesting that anybody run from the wind (which won’t be that bad anyway).

]]> By: WG http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-862 WG Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:28:38 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-862 Houston is not evacuating. They remember the nightmare of Rita, where many more died on the roads out of town than from the actual hurricane. Houston is not evacuating. They remember the nightmare of Rita, where many more died on the roads out of town than from the actual hurricane.

]]> By: sanssoucy http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-857 sanssoucy Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:16:39 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-857 Emergency! Evacuate! Save yourself while you can! We're doomed! Dooooooomed! Yup, Brendan Loy deploys his usual hype-averse commentary. Hope this one doesn't fizzle like the last couple, eh, Brenda? Emergency! Evacuate! Save yourself while you can! We’re doomed! Dooooooomed!

Yup, Brendan Loy deploys his usual hype-averse commentary. Hope this one doesn’t fizzle like the last couple, eh, Brenda?

]]> By: Greg http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-856 Greg Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:11:33 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-856 The surge and flooding in south Louisiana is significant enough to warrant some mandatory evacuations. Grand Isle is under about 3 feet of water. The rising water is somewhat of a surprise considering how far away the storm is. With all of the blame on the Feds for the levee failures during Katrina, the reality is that we had a Cat 5 storm surge with a Cat 3 storm, and the levees were not built to handle same. That is not to say that there were not serious design and maintenance problems with many of the levees. Ike reminds me of Katrina re: the surge. The surge and flooding in south Louisiana is significant enough to warrant some mandatory evacuations. Grand Isle is under about 3 feet of water. The rising water is somewhat of a surprise considering how far away the storm is.

With all of the blame on the Feds for the levee failures during Katrina, the reality is that we had a Cat 5 storm surge with a Cat 3 storm, and the levees were not built to handle same. That is not to say that there were not serious design and maintenance problems with many of the levees.

Ike reminds me of Katrina re: the surge.

]]> By: jeffus http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-850 jeffus Fri, 12 Sep 2008 04:56:17 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-850 "Where’s the contraflow lanes?" Contraflow lanes are a monster to pull together and may not be necessary. "Worse, some media is going, “oh, never mind.”" KHOU's been downplaying all night. Not sure what they know. “Where’s the contraflow lanes?”

Contraflow lanes are a monster to pull together and may not be necessary.

“Worse, some media is going, “oh, never mind.””
KHOU’s been downplaying all night. Not sure what they know.

]]> By: Ubu Roi http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-846 Ubu Roi Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:43:51 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-846 NHC discussion indicates that it really isn't that much of a change. Don't obsess over every five-mile twitch of the line. I would have preferred that they leave it alone -- see The Monster's reaction above. Worse, some media is going, "oh, never mind." <a href="http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080911_tnt_houston_ike_general.659ae065.html" rel="nofollow">Ike may be a Category 1 when it makes landfall</a> <a href="http://houblog.com/wp/index.php/2008/568" rel="nofollow">Where's</a> the <a href="http://www.click2houston.com/hurricanes/9641615/detail.html" rel="nofollow">contraflow</a> lanes? Right now, only I45 N. and I10 W. are jammed. Hwy 290 has some issues, but 249, 90, I10 E. are all clear. I suggested earlier that the Darwin Award might be a group award this year, but I may have suggested the wrong group receive it, at this rate. NHC discussion indicates that it really isn’t that much of a change. Don’t obsess over every five-mile twitch of the line. I would have preferred that they leave it alone — see The Monster’s reaction above.

Worse, some media is going, “oh, never mind.”
Ike may be a Category 1 when it makes landfall

Where’s the contraflow lanes? Right now, only I45 N. and I10 W. are jammed. Hwy 290 has some issues, but 249, 90, I10 E. are all clear.

I suggested earlier that the Darwin Award might be a group award this year, but I may have suggested the wrong group receive it, at this rate.

]]> By: Brendan Loy http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-845 Brendan Loy Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:31:19 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-845 A landfall at low tide would be better than a landfall at high tide, but the storm is so big that it surge will span several successive high tides, and the "low" tides won't actually be that low. This is a big part of the problem, surge-wise, at least as I understand it. A landfall at low tide would be better than a landfall at high tide, but the storm is so big that it surge will span several successive high tides, and the “low” tides won’t actually be that low. This is a big part of the problem, surge-wise, at least as I understand it.

]]> By: Colin Lovett http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-842 Colin Lovett Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:08:50 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-842 Thanks for the posting. The storm surge seems to be the thing most likely to cause widespread destruction, not to mention death if people don't get out of low-lying areas. I've been telling people for several days to pay attention and leave if asked to. I've also provided a lot of emergency info, resource links and phone numbers for east Texas residents. You can see my latest post at http://current.pic.tv/2008/09/11/texas-begins-evacuations-ahead-of-hurricane-ike/ I have one quick question? If it hits around midnight Friday night, it will be hitting at low-tide. Will this matter regarding the storm surge? Thanks for the posting. The storm surge seems to be the thing most likely to cause widespread destruction, not to mention death if people don’t get out of low-lying areas.

I’ve been telling people for several days to pay attention and leave if asked to. I’ve also provided a lot of emergency info, resource links and phone numbers for east Texas residents. You can see my latest post at http://current.pic.tv/2008/09/11/texas-begins-evacuations-ahead-of-hurricane-ike/

I have one quick question? If it hits around midnight Friday night, it will be hitting at low-tide. Will this matter regarding the storm surge?

]]> By: The Monster http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/comment-page-1/#comment-841 The Monster Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:02:18 +0000 http://pajamasmedia.com/weathernerd/2008/09/11/get-the-hell-out-ikes-storm-surge-is-a-deadly-threat/#comment-841 The 10 pm forecast track has nudged just east of the track you show here; if that keeps up, they may indeed dodge the bullet. The 10 pm forecast track has nudged just east of the track you show here; if that keeps up, they may indeed dodge the bullet.

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