Just a quick update:
- The Houston Chronicle’s Eric Berger is about to start his daily 3pm EDT live chat. It will undoubtedly contain a wealth of good information.
- ABC 13’s Houston Weather Blog has a run-down on what various regions of the metro area can expect from Ike, assuming the current forecast holds.
- The latest computer models seem to have clustered on Galveston Bay. This may actually be a good thing, methinks, if this rightward trend nudges the landfall point ever-so-slightly further north. If Ike’s center comes ashore just slightly northeast of Galveston Island (thus sparing Galveston the storm’s “right-front quadrant,” or “dirty side”), the impact on the Houston/Galveston area — particularly in terms of storm surge — will, I think, be much less severe than if Ike were to come ashore well to the southwest of Galveston Island. Better 20 miles up the coast than 75 or even 100 miles down the coast, I think. (Somebody correct me if you think I’m wrong on this.) Though it would be a very close call. One contributor at Eastern U.S. WX Forums writes: “Houston may miss the right front quadrant at this rate. I have a feeling this is going to come down to last minute wobbles as to whether it goes just left, into, or just right of Galveston Bay.”
- Apropos of the above, the NHC’s 2pm advisory says, “IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.”
- The 2pm advisory also says that Ike’s pressure has risen to 952 millibars. This temporary weakening could portend subsequent strengthening, if an honest-to-goodness eyewall replacement cycle is now underway. Or not. I don’t know. But one WX Forums contributor did write this, after looking at the recon data a couple of hours ago: “I did not notice more than 1 double wind max, if that. That was a MUCH MUCH better structure. … I had counted 4 wind maximums earlier this morning.” Later, he added: “Yep, just went back and checked, NO double wind maximum on this pass.”
- A full mandatory evacuation has been ordered for all of Galveston Island, all of Chambers County, and evacuation zones A and B in Harris County, as well as “Brazoria County and areas south of Texas 35 and the Blessing area of Matagorda County.” (Here’s a Texas county map, for the uninitiated.)
- The National Weather Service in Houston put out this statement at 2:20 PM EDT, for coastal areas:
LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY! ALL NEIGHBORHOODS…AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.
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21 Comments
1. Leland:Brandon,
I think you are somewhat right about the Galveston Bay issue, but not in terms of where the models are right now. Besides Galveston, the heavist flooding actually in Houston occurs along Galveston Bay and San Jacinto River. As the majority of the bay is still to the east (dirty side) of the eye for the models, this is not good. However, if the right hand turn is starting, maybe the storm can get the dirty side over to Bolivar. Definitely right about 20 miles up coast than 50 miles down coast.
In general, Galveston Bay is like Lake Ponchartrain. Better to have winds blowing out then blowing in. One more reason this storm is more serious than what we have seen recently. Still, no reason for north and west parts of Houston to bug out. Houston is not like NOLA, in that much of it is above sea level and by a decent margin.
Sep 11, 2008 - 12:13 pm 2. Brendan Loy:I changed the wording of the post to “better 20 miles up the coast than 100 miles down,” rather than “50 or 100 miles,” because I realized the “50 miles” thing is obvious, given the location of Freeport — the “worst-case” landfall point — roughly 40-50 miles down the coast from Galveston.
The point I’m trying to make is that, With this storm, given the size and expected surge, I think even 100 miles down the coast, with onshore winds, might be a pretty bad scenario…
Maybe I’ll change it to “75 or even 100.”
Sep 11, 2008 - 12:17 pm 3. Brendan Loy:I changed it to “75 or even 100,” and I also clarified my point about the models by adding the wording “if this rightward trend nudges the landfall point ever-so-slightly further north.”
Sep 11, 2008 - 12:20 pm 4. Doug:I guess the NWS in Houston really wants to get people’s attention with that latest local hurricane warning statement. Yikes! Won’t see many advisories worded like that from any government agency. Good for them for being VERY persuasive! Put it in terms everyone can understand!
Sep 11, 2008 - 12:38 pm 5. NDLauren:Thanks for the information Brendan; with my mother home alone on the Northwest side of Houston this weekend while my father makes the trip up to ND to the game with me, I’ve been trying to keep a close eye on everything for her. Based on the ABC 13 blog, it looks like she might be in an area receiving up to 5-10” of rain with 100 mph sustained winds.
Sep 11, 2008 - 12:42 pm 6. Leland:It’s been a blessing to be able to find information about the storm quickly here and I really appreciate the work you do to keep those in troubled areas informed.
Lauren,
I grew up in northwest Houston, specifically Spring Branch. This might seem odd, but 5 to 10″ isn’t amazing. Winds are bad because that area is fairly well wooded, but a good house should do ok. Be prepared though to be out of touch after the storm for sometime. During Rita; power, telephone, and cellular were out for awhile. This is just normal, but can be disconcerting.
Sep 11, 2008 - 1:12 pm 7. Ironman:any idea how badly the surge will damage oil facilities along the Houston Ship Channel?
Sep 11, 2008 - 1:16 pm 8. Alan Sullivan:Potential damage in ship channel could be grave, if landfall occurs SW of there. Brendan quoted me earlier on the Chesapeake Bay precedent.
I see some tightening but increased asymmetry in Ike as it gets closer to landfall. These trends may cancel each other in part, but it does look like some increase in core winds could be coming.
Sep 11, 2008 - 1:38 pm 9. Ubu Roi:I think they were a little slow extending the evac to all of Zones A and B, but I’m more worried at the number of people that don’t seem to be inclined to do anything but buy a few jugs of water and some Spaghettio’s for the kids. (You can’t find a can of that stuff anywhere right now!
Sep 11, 2008 - 1:52 pm 10. Texasyank:Now that I’ve gotten my cash, filled the tank, re-upped the perscriptions, bought the water, washed the clothes, and allowed myself 3-4 hours to rest and jog before packing the car in preparation for heading out tomorrow, it occurs to me:
I may very well miss USC-Ohio State, a game that is supposed to be on ABC 13, but is already devoted to 24-hour hurricane coverage.
These evacs are a way of life, but I had assumed while hunkered down at my (marvelous, natch) in-laws’, both the anticipation of the game and the game itself would keep my brain from turning to guacamole.
Now–hmm.
Sep 11, 2008 - 2:09 pm 11. Andrew:Ugh. My coworker has elderly parents that live right on the water’s edge in Clear Lake, TX, and refuse to evacuate after their Rita experience. Instead they are boarding up the townhouse and taking the oxygen tank to the third floor to wait it out.
My other coworker from Houston is adamant that scores of people, also scarred from the botched Rita evac, will stay. This is bad, bad news if everything you guys are blogging ends up being accurate.
Sep 11, 2008 - 2:30 pm 12. Alan Sullivan:5 PM advisory is very interesting. The tiny core and eye has vanished. We have a very large but eyeless hurricane. It is also asymmetrical, restricted on the west. Not too impressive.
Sep 11, 2008 - 3:07 pm 13. Greg:We are getting some minor flooding even south of New Orleans outside the levees. Ike has shut down power line repair in the flooding areas.
Water is even about 3 feet deep on France Rd. in New Orleans, outside the Industrial Canal levee.
Not much rain though.
Eric Berger has storm surge maps online for various landfall scenarios in Houston.
The pine treed areas around Houston may see power outages for much longer than a week if the storm hits head on at a Cat 3 landfall. A lot of emergency line repair is still tied up in south Louisiana.
Sep 11, 2008 - 3:29 pm 14. Nathan:Anyone put any stock in the HWRF solution? It has Ike weakening to tropical storm strength within the next 12 hours, with a 25 mb rise in central pressure to boot. That’s rather drastic, of course, but what factors does HWRF think important that the other models don’t? Dry air intrusion on the west side of the cyclone, maybe? Or is it just a bad initialization?
Sep 11, 2008 - 3:29 pm 15. Steve Sadlov:Allow me to emphasize this. The fetch of these winds is immense. The structure of this storm more closely resembles that of a major closed low winter Gulf of Alaska storm than it does a classical Gulf of Mexico hurricane. When such a storm strikes in the mid Pacific Coast, levees in places like SF Bay, and smaller estuaries are slightly overtopped. Given our very steep coastal profile and very narrow continental shelf, this speaks of a massive overall volume of uplifted water. Now, consider a similar storm, with a much, much gentler coastal profile and much wider continental shelf. Even if there is weakening, and further asymmetry, there may still be significant surge related inundation. Do not mess with this folks.
Sep 11, 2008 - 3:35 pm 16. Alan Sullivan:Yes, the surge will be major — and disproportionate to the storm’s strength (or weakness). There is a very large envelope of low pressure, and a large fetch. I remarked on the strong and persistent winds here in S Florida, while Ike passed far away. Worst effects may be well NE of the landfall.
Sep 11, 2008 - 3:41 pm 17. Ubu Roi:Andrew: this is my experience also. People are riding it out who have no business doing so. I fear the death toll is going to be ugly, and the experience of Rita will be why.
Sep 11, 2008 - 4:46 pm 18. SteveSadlov:Check out Greg’s comment above. The storm’s center is well to the south of him, and he is barely in the right front quadrant. The reach of the surge is huge.
Sep 11, 2008 - 4:47 pm 19. Houblog » Blog Archive » Almost Done, and Roundup:[...] Andrew over at Brendan’s site remarked: Ugh. My coworker has elderly parents that live right on the water’s edge in Clear Lake, [...]
Sep 11, 2008 - 4:59 pm 20. baconboy:While a strike to the east of Galveston would be an improvement, it’s not completely good news. The south side of the island is mostly protected by the seawall (unless waves top 17 feet, in which case all bets are off), but the island is built on a slope downward from there, so that the north side of the island is just a few feet over sea level (I lived about midway between the north and south sides). The problem comes if a big storm surge comes through Galveston Bay and when the winds change direction the water gets pushed from north back toward the south. As I recall from reading about the 1900 storm, this is what happened, which meant they got storm surge going in and coming out. Happy to be corrected about the facts of 1900 or the dynamics of reverse storm surge, but that’s my recollection.
Sep 11, 2008 - 7:29 pm 21. brujotejano:If you compare the NHC satellite loop to the track points as of 9:24 CDT, it appears that Ike is south of the track points and heading WNW. This is a change from the recent actual tracks that have been north of the track points. This is not all good,and is of great interest as we hunker down in central Houston and pray for our timber farm in Newton County that was whacked by Rita. Thanks for your great work Brendan
Sep 11, 2008 - 7:30 pm